mvaughan

The sub-continent

Sri Lanka, currently trading at 6.4, will enjoy playing in their own conditions and having seasoned campaigners like Tillekeratne Dilshan, Kumar Sangakkara, Mahela Jayawardene and Lasith Malinga in the side will be invaluable. I was concerned about their lack of a mystery spinner in a post-Murali world, but the emergence of Akila Dhananjaya looks to have filled that gap and they will be right up there. I like the look of them at 6.4.

India are trading as 6.2 favourites and I wouldn't discourage getting involved at that price. A knockout match at a T20 World Cup is a high-pressure situation and the experience of playing year-on-year-out in the IPL will certainly help their players. They have an embarrassment of riches to pick from and you know that under MS Dhoni, they'll certainly get the tactics and gameplan right. Dhoni is a bit of a wizard in limited overs cricket. He is tactically smart, knows how to time an innings and can whack it out of the park. Virat Kohli is also a class act, and I like the look of him for top run scorer at 15.5.

Pakistan, currently trading at 8.0, can never be ruled out because we know how dangerous they can be when they're all pulling in the same direction and because of their strong record in this event (runners-up, winners, semi-finalists over the three editions). But I'll give them a miss this time because I'm not sure their batting is consistent enough.

England

I think England can cope with Kevin Pietersen's retirement from ODIs but the T20 team will really miss his power-hitting in the top three, in addition to his experience and resourcefulness at the crease. The likes of Eoin Morgan and Graeme Swann will need to be exceptional for England to stand a chance and while I wouldn't completely dismiss their chances, I'm not backing them at 10.0.

South Africa and West Indies

On paper, South Africa have everything. A scary pace attack in Morne Morkel and Dale Steyn, top-class batsmen in AB De Villiers, Graeme Smith and Hashim Amla and two of the world's best all-rounders in this format in Jacques Kallis and Albie Morkel. De Villiers is the new skipper of course and with all due respect to Smith, maybe it was time to have a new man in charge with fresh ideas. They'll be a very tough team to beat, which is reflected in their odds of 6.6.

The problem with the West Indies is that the pressure will be permanently on their batsmen to post monster scores and chase big totals because their bowlers can't be relied on to keep things tight. If Chris Gayle, Kieron Pollard and Dwayne Bravo and co find the pitches to their liking they have a chance of course but they are too short at 7.2 for me.

Australia and New Zealand

There's plenty to like about this Australian team with some big-hitters in there and a couple of genuinely quick bowlers who can dismiss any top order cheaply on their day. But they do have an inexperienced skipper at international level in George Bailey and he might be looking towards the World Cup after this one as the time when this team will peak. A price of 7.6 is too short for me.

New Zealand always seem to over-perform in limited-overs tournaments but I think they're going through a stage where they're a little thin on genuine talent and that means they're relying on the big guns - Ross Taylor, Daniel Vettori and Brendon McCullum - to do something special every game. That's a big ask and is reflected in their odds of 22.0.

Recommended Bets
Sri Lanka to win @ 6.4
India to win @ 6.2
Virat Kohli to be Top Run Scorer @ 15.5

For more World T20 betting articles, go to http://betting.betfair.com/cricket/20-twenty-cricket/

I'm not surprised by the news. I've realised this decision has been coming for a few weeks now, just from the way Straussy has been carrying himself. I know from my own experience that once you've decided to go, you become a bit 'too cool for school' and are enjoying your batting instead of the intense focus you'd normally have as captain.

We know he has been struggling to get runs so this, tied in with losing to South Africa and the KP affair, would have tipped him over the edge.

I'm also not surprised at all he's retiring from all forms of cricket. He doesn't just want to hang around scoring a few runs for Middlesex; he's got a good family around him and plenty of other interests - he's not just about cricket.

The highlight for me when you're talking about playing with Straussy is of course the 2005 Ashes and, in particular, the century he got on the first day at the Oval. Everyone talks about KP's ton, but that 100 set the tone for the match and was vitally important.

Of course, winning the Ashes in Australia is the ultimate achievement for any captain, so that will undoubtedly be remembered as the main highlight for Andrew - as he said himself today.

Alastair Cook takes over now and he is a very capable leader. As I know myself, give it three months and they'll be saying 'Andrew who?'!

It's the toughest of starts for Cook with a tour to India; the hardest place to captain a team.

My gut feeling is that Jonathan Trott will move up the order to open with Ian Bell at three and Eoin Morgan or Ravi Bopara at four. It will mean an inexperience middle order, with the likes of Taylor and Bairstow vying for places, but given that England were hammered with an experience side last year, Cook goes out there with no pressure really. It will all be about New Zealand and then Australia.

Of course, the Kevin Pietersen issue remains. It might be easier to settle with Strauss' departure, but Kevin's beef appears to be with the ECB so we might be talking some time. If I was Alastair Cook, I'd be looking to sit down with Pietersen at some point and having a chat.

For more exclusive Michael Vaughan content, go to http://betting.betfair.com/cricket/michaelvaughan/

The start of the series is going to be massive. Eight of England's XI will have played in the Test team so a win in the first ODI will help them clear the negative thoughts. But a South Africa victory and it could prove to be a long series for the England players.

The Betfair market can't split the two teams at the moment, both trading at just over evens, but this is probably more of a reflection on England's good recent ODI record (whitewashes over Pakistan in February, the West Indies in June and Australia in July) than the state of play going into the series.

The Aussies were coming off the back of no cricket when England rolled them over - South Africa are a completely different proposition; they've played plenty of cricket and are brimming with confidence. They certainly represent the biggest challenge England have faced.

Looking at the team news and both teams are missing big players with Stuart Broad and Jacques Kallis getting a rest ahead of the Twenty20 World Cup in September.

A player of the class of Kallis is a miss for any team, but South Africa have got lots of experience as well as plenty of blokes who can hit it out of the ground so it shouldn't affect them too much. The likes of Duminy and Peterson are top one-day operators, but I'll be backing AB de Villiers to be top run scorer for the tourists. He's in fine nick. On the bowling front, look no further than Dale Steyn who is the main man in both formats.

I think England's decision to rest Broad is the right one - he hasn't quite looked himself in recent weeks, so a good time to go and recharge the batteries. In his absence, it will be a big series for Jade Dernbach and Steven Finn, who I'm expecting to continue his recent good form. He would be my back as top England wicket taker at 3.5 or better. (The Exchange market is currently illiquid but you can get 3.75 on Fixed Odds.)

On the batting front, Eoin Morgan is a massive player for England in the one-day format. Although South Africa have the bowlers to upset his game, I think he represents good value to be top England batsman at 5.0 or better.

It is easy to get on a roll in one-day cricket, so if the tourists win at Cardiff, you could easily be looking at a 4-1 scoreline. But I won't be getting involved on the series score bet until after the first ODI as the toss is so important at Cardiff. I'll be back on Friday morning to preview the game.

Recommended Bet
South African to win the series at 2.1

For more exclusive Michael Vaughan content, go to http://betting.betfair.com/cricket/michaelvaughan/

First and foremost let's hope that this Series isn't spoilt by the weather. These are two really good teams up against each other and it would be a massive disappointment if we don't have enough play to establish who is the better of the two right now. Light showers are expected on Thursday and Friday but it's meant to be a lot better over the weekend.

The pitch at the Oval is normally a good one and the news is that it will be a dry track that will offer plenty for the spinners late on in the match. That means that whereas it would normally be an idea to bowl first if you win the toss, both captains will be thinking that chasing any sort of score to win the game will be hard work. So win the toss and bat is probably the wise choice. Graeme Swann and Imran Tahir will be major players in this contest but of the two it's Swann who is the more likely match-winner. Firstly because these are conditions that he knows better (even though Tahir has played plenty of county cricket) and secondly because he has bundles more experience of playing Test cricket. Other reasons why England may have the edge in this match are that South Africa are missing Mark Boucher and that they haven't had much of a chance to get much match practice because of the poor weather.

Either way, this will be far from straightforward for England. If it does something early on and SA are bowling then Dale Steyn, Morne Morkel and Vernon Philander can cause havoc. If they dismiss England's two left-handed openers early then Steyn can have a go at the right-handers who bat between positions three and eight inclusive. We've seen him rip through the best batting line-ups in the world over the years and he won't be feeling nervous about the challenge ahead. If the visitors bat and can make a good start, negating the new-ball threat of James Anderson and Stuart Broad, they can post a big total because theirs is a formidable line-up. You know who they are and the fact that JP Duminy will be coming in at seven is proof that they bat deep; even Philander at eight has first-class hundreds to his name.

As ever in a Test match the start will be crucial because it sets the tempo for the rest of the game and the first hour will give us a big clue as to who will be in the driving seat at the end of day one. The best sides in the world make the most of gaining the initiative and the way England and South Africa play the game, if you lose a session badly, you're half way there to losing the match.

But it's England who are the pre-match bet because of the run they're in and because they're at home; at 2.7 they offer the potential as a back-to-lay at worst.

Ravi Bopara will be recalled and bat at number six after Jonny Bairstow never really got going against the West Indies. Ravi will be nervous because he knows he has to perform in this Series but he comes into this game in good form after impressing in the ODI series against the Windies where he looked confident and composed. But the man to side with in terms of getting a score is Ian Bell. He'll be batting down at five after opening in the 50-over matches but that shouldn't bother him and he'll enjoy facing Tahir given that he's such a good player of spin. He's 2.6 to score fifty or more and that looks a bet.

For South Africa I like Jacques Kallis for top first innings batsman honours. A lot has been made of his indifferent record over in England but that's even more reason why he'll want to improve upon it on what is surely his last Tour over here. Write this man off at your peril but I certainly won't and he's my choice at 5.5.

Back England at 2.7
Back Ian Bell to score 50 or more @ 2.6
Back Jacques Kallis to be South Africa first innings top batsman @ 5.5

For more exclusive Michael Vaughan content, go to http://betting.betfair.com/cricket/michaelvaughan/

Kevin Pietersen is in the news again. His double-hundred for Surrey against Lancashire was KP at his brutal best but his best knock for his new(ish) county has coincided with talk of a return to limited-overs international cricket, less than two months since he decided to quit and just focus on Test cricket and playing T20 all over the world for various franchises. It's a remarkable 'volte-face' if rumours of a willingness to return are to be believed.

Kevin knows what he needs to do if he wants to be involved in the T20 World Cup. He needs to come out of retirement and make himself available to play international cricket in both ODIs and T20s. There's no doubt England are a better side with him in the team but the ball is in his court now. Either way, I'm sure his priority at the moment is to have a really good Test series against South Africa so let's talk about that.

If this were a couple of weeks ago I'd be saying these sides were very hard to split. But two very significant things have happened since then. Firstly, Mark Boucher has suffered a freak injury during the week which has meant he's retired from international cricket with immediate effect. People talk about Matt Prior being the engine room in the England side but Boucher had a similar role within the Proteas' team. His was arguably an even more important one because he'd been around for so long and had seen it all before. His keeping was exceptional and his energy levels immense. Not to mention his job behind the stumps in terms of working out how to get batsmen out and constant communicating with the bowlers. Ok, his batting wasn't quite what it was over the last few Series compared to a few years back but even recently you knew you had to work hard for his wicket. He's a massive loss to the team.

The other thing that's happened is that South Africa have had very little chance to play on this Tour because of bad weather. Readers of this column will be tired of hearing me talk about getting familiarised with the local playing conditions but any cricketer will tell you that it really does make a world of difference. Even if you're Jacques Kallis or Graeme Smith and have played over here plenty of times before you need to spend time in the middle in the build up to a Test match. Same thing for a bowler: you need to get used to what lengths to bowl and to what you need to make the ball do to dismiss international batsmen.

But even without these two factors, I think England had the edge anyway. They have the better bowling attack, partly because it contains Graeme Swann and South Africa don't have a spinner of that calibre. But also because England's pace attack is a ferocious one in great form. That said, Dale Steyn is capable of destroying any batting line-up in any conditions and England may be more vulnerable than most because they don't have any left-handers in the middle order. If the two openers go cheaply and Steyn gets in the groove, the hosts could be in trouble. But rather than relying on the rest of the team to back him up, I'd rather just take Dale Steyn at 3.4 to be top SA wicket-taker over the series.

I've said before that any chance to back England at home at odds-against to win a Test series is one we shouldn't turn down and this is the case here. 2.16 looks a really good price about the number one Test team in the world who are on a roll, high on confidence and have no injury concerns. For a slightly more speculative wager on the correct score market, and with the weather being pretty horrendous so far this summer, I'd be looking at 1-0 England at around 6.8.

Finally, a word on the top South African batsman market. One could make a case for just about anyone in the top seven because this really is a star-studded line-up the tourists have. Jacques Kallis, the cucumber cool senior batsman of the side will have plenty of backers as will the skipper Graeme Smith who has an outstanding record in England. But I prefer the claims of AB De Villiers who will come in lower down the order and not have to face the new ball when it's moving all over the place. He's a proper class act this guy and looks the value at 5.8.

Back England to win the Series @ 2.16
Back England to win 1-0 @ 6.8
Back Dale Steyn to be Top South African series wicket-taker @ 3.4
Back AB De Villiers to be Top South African series batsman @ 5.8

For more exclusive Michael Vaughan content, go to http://betting.betfair.com/cricket/michaelvaughan/

The ODI format is under threat. We know this because players, journalists and coaches keep saying that and because the ICC continuously tinker with the rules and format of the 50-over game. It's a sign that they're trying hard to better a format that is clearly not perfect and is increasingly coming under scrutiny. We've had Graeme Swann saying he doesn't really enjoy it anymore and Kevin Pietersen retiring from limited-overs international cricket because he didn't want to play it anymore, even though it meant it was the end of his international T20 career as well.

Me? I'll be honest when I say that it's my third favourite format. Test cricket is the game in its purest form and a good Test cricketer was what I dreamt of being when I started out many moons ago. And T20 is great, too. All-action, a shot a ball, ridiculously good-fielding. How many matches go to the last over? Virtually all of them. How many go to the last ball? Plenty. Everyone wants drama in sport and the fact there's so much of it in the shortest format is one of the reasons why it's so popular.

The problem with ODIs is that it's somewhere in between. Eight or nine hours is a long time for players and fans. The concept of playing for five days and it ending a draw as it sometimes does in Test cricket may seem absurd to those who don't really get cricket but they're missing the point. Saving a draw can feel like a win and a match ending in a draw when you should have won it feels like a defeat. Batting for six hours and trying solely to not get out is as much of a challenge and achievement as scoring a quick-fire century.

But when I say ODIs are my third favourite format I mean I think there's still a place for them, not that they should become extinct. How to keep them popular is one for the ICC to come up with a solution to, that's what they're paid for.

The toss at Durham was a good one to win. England got the best of the bowling conditions and batted in sunshine in the afternoon when scoring was easier. England are an incredibly hard team to beat in these sort of conditions but the big tests will come when they travel to India in January and have to chase down 300 plus runs. This will be even more of a challenge than ever because Pietersen won't be around, the one player who can score as quickly as a Virender Sehwag or Ms Dhoni can. Because whereas totals of 230-250 are just the sort of scores that guys like Ian Bell and Jonathan Trott love to chase, scoring at a strike rate of 80-odd, asking them to take risks in order to set or chase monster totals takes them away from their comfort zone. Bigger challenges lie ahead for England than Australia in their favoured conditions.

The wicket at Old Trafford has changed over the years and these days it tends to lack pace and be tricky to score runs on because the ball doesn't come on to the bat. Batting first would be an advantage but even if Australia do so, I simply can't understand why England are 1.88 to win the game. Australia will almost certainly be missing their most reliable bowler in Brett Lee and one of their few match-winners with the bat in Shane Watson. We've seen Mitchell Johnson rock up and be deadly in English conditions but we've also seen him be wayward and very expensive so it's not easy to predict what sort of impact he'll have.

Put simply, England are a strong fancy. Australia aren't playing well, they've been ravaged by injuries and being 3-0 down isn't much fun for anyone, especially not against your deadly rivals.

Irrespective of batting first or second, this will be a tough wicket for the openers. So however well Alastair Cook and Bell are batting, we need to look further down the order. Eoin Morgan will have been disappointed he didn't get to bat on Sunday and looked pretty good in the first two games so he looks the call at around 6.6.

Back England to win @ 1.83
Back Eoin Morgan to be Top England batsman @ 6.6

For more exclusive Michael Vaughan content, go to http://betting.betfair.com/cricket/michaelvaughan/

There seems to be some rather confused thinking in the Australian camp just now. They lost narrowly in the 1st ODI and might have well have won had Matthew Wade not got run out when he did. Yet that defeat let to wholesale changes. They were obviously unfortunate to have lost Pat Cummins to injury and I've no problem with Mitchell Johnson being brought in but I think they should have stuck with Clint McKay as Brett Lee's new-ball partner. Those loose deliveries and no-balls from Johnson first up put Australia under the cosh from very early on. George Bailey was shifted down the order for the second match, Steve Smith was dropped and all in all there were just too many changes in terms of both tactics and personnel.

One thing they need to address is how to play Graeme Swann better. The Nottinghamshire man normally has plenty of protection on the boundary when he bowls but that does mean there are singles all over the place to be had. You have to score at a run rate of at least four an over when Swann is on but Australia just didn't rotate the strike well enough and allowed themselves to get bogged down. That was a big factor in them finishing about 30 runs short of a par score in those conditions

As for England, it was nice to see Ravi Bopara play such a mature innings. He looks more confident, he's playing with a straighter bat and paced his innings just right. With Kevin Pietersen out of the picture in limited-overs cricket he'll feel that as well as he plays well enough he won't be under any pressure for his place. But he does need to perform. For the remainder of this series, the Test series against South Africa, the T20 World Cup and the ODI series against India. If over the next five months he plays like we all know he can, he will have cemented his place in the England set-up for the next couple of years. But if he doesn't, we may just have reached the stage where he's run out of chances.

England are 2-0 up and look a better balanced ODI side than Australia in these conditions. Any personnel changes (Jade Dernbach is out of the series and will be replaced by Stuart Meaker or Chris Woakes) are down to injury because this side looks a very settled one where everyone knows what is expected of them. England may perhaps the lack the unpredictability of Pakistan or the individual brilliance that some of the Indian batsmen are capable of but they play hard, solid, disciplined ODI cricket. Sharp fielding, accurate bowling, sensible batting. Why then are England the outsiders at 2.06 to win at Edgabston? I certainly don't know because in my book they should comfortable pre-toss favourites. Even if the match gets reduced to 30 or 40 overs a side I'm not sure this would help Australia's cause. Steve Finn is in great form and if the tourists took too many risks against him too early on they could find themselves in a spot of bother. All in all, England are a confident selection.

But one market where Australia may have the edge is when it comes to scoring most sixes. It's only really Eoin Morgan who regularly clears the boundary rope for England whereas the Aussies have six-hitters in Shane Watson, David Warner and David Hussey (plus Johnson and Lee down the order) so it's surprising that the market finds the two hard to split. Any quote of evens (2.0) about Australia looks a bet.

Ian Bell looks in sublime form and will enjoy batting on his home ground but I think we'll have to look a little bit lower down the order for England top bat honours. The ball could move around early on a wicket that could be a juicy one as a result of the rain so it's the middle-order batters we should look to. Ravi Bopara will no doubt have support after his knock the other day but Morgan is the man to side with at around 6.6. He continues to be England's most consistent batsman in this format and has played two crucial innings so far in this series. He's certainly the value call.

Back England to win @ 2.06
Back Australia to hit the most sixes @ 2.0
Back Eoin Morgan to be Top England batsman @ 6.6

For more exclusive Michael Vaughan content, go to http://betting.betfair.com/cricket/michaelvaughan/

As I've already said in my series preview, this should be a close contest throughout and Lord's should be no exception.

For starters it's a wicket that at first glance doesn't favour one side over the other. If the ball was going to swing it may play into the hands of England but then again if it was an absolute belter of a wicket it might have favoured Australia's top order who are arguably bigger hitters than their English counter-parts with the likes of David Warner, Shane Watson and Steve Smith all capable of clearing the boundary rope. Lord's is a good batting track but there are easier places to score runs.

England should remain unchanged for this game. They will be desperate to carry on the good work started by Alastair Cook since he took over the ODI captaincy and to win this series as a way of landing a psychological blow ahead of next years' Ashes. That means fielding their strongest side and therefore going with the one that beat the West Indies fairly easily in the two matches that were completed. Whether Tim Bresnan is a good long-term option at seven remains to be seen but that's how they'll go for the first match at least.

In many ways this should be a typical modern-day ODI wicket. 260 will probably be seen as a par score, 280 would be very competitive. My preference would be to bowl first here whilst the ball does something and then chase whatever the opposition set when the sun comes out and batting become easier. So I'd rather wait till the toss and back the team chasing than pick a winner in the match odds market at this stage.

A more confident pre-toss selection is to go with Michael Clarke to top-score for Australia. I'm really looking forward to watching the skipper in action. He's certainly one of the most pro-active captains in international cricket and I like the way he sometimes takes gambles rather than just following a pre-determined gameplan. But let's not forget what a class batsman he is as well. He'll bat at four which is a good place to come in when you're playing in England and will look to be at the crease till the end: rotating the strike, punishing the bad balls, running hard. He should be available at around 6.0.

Back the side batting second
Back Michael Clarke to be top Australian batsman @ 6.0

For more exclusive Michael Vaughan content, go to http://betting.betfair.com/cricket/michaelvaughan/

Australia are in town and I have a feeling they will test England harder than anyone else has for a long time on British soil.

There are three very good reasons why I say that. First up, they're the number one ranked ODI side in the world so that speaks for itself in terms of their consistency and winning habit. Secondly, English conditions in the middle of the summer aren't too dissimilar to standard conditions in Australia so this will feel far less like an away series for them than it would for say Sri Lanka or India. And thirdly, for the first time in a while we come across a bowling attack who can match England's.

People can say what they like about Brett Lee not being as quick as he used to be or that he always seems on the verge of breaking down with some sort of injury. But he's still rapid and I don't know a single batsman in the world who doesn't respect him or who think he's someone you can go after. Add to that the experience he has and the variations he bowls and this is one of the top ODI bowlers in the world we're talking about here.

Then we have young James Pattinson, who has impressed during his short international career and who great things are expected of. And then there's the guy who I'm most looking forward to seeing play in the flesh during this Series: Pat Cummins. There's always a great deal of excitement when a tall, fast bowler comes on to the scene and it's hard to imagine a better start to a Test career than his: he took seven wickets on debut in South Africa and knocked off the winning runs with the bat. That's the stuff dreams are made of and by all accounts this guy can consistently bowl 90mph plus. If he can be as consistent in terms of line and length, Australia could have a real world beater on their hands. Clint McKay is a fine bowler too, whereas Mitchell Johnson and Ben Hilfenhaus need no introduction.

The one area where England maybe have the edge is in the spinning department. Australia don't have a mystery spinner in their ranks nor do they have a Graeme Swann. And by that I mean an orthodox spinner who has been around for five years or more on the ODI scene and who is as capable of taking wickets as he is of stopping the runs from flowing. Xavier Doherty is in the squad and they also have Steve Smith, though the latter seems to be viewed these days as more of a hard-hitting middle-order batsman who bowls a few overs than a spinner who bats, which is what he was when he first appeared on the scene. Australia may decide to go without a specialist spinner and divide duties between Michael Clarke, David Hussey and Smith. Those three certainly have the experience factor on their sides.

In terms of the batting, Mike Hussey sits this tour out for family reasons and he'll be sorely missed. They don't call him Mr Cricket for nothing. Coming in at five or six he's the guy who has really taken over that mantle as the team's finisher from Michael Bevan. He just has that knack of knowing exactly how to pace an innings and Australia will have to think long and hard about who takes over those duties.

David Warner has become a top player in this format since he's understood that not every delivery needs to go to the boundary rope and will be a key wicket. Then comes the trio that seems like they've been around forever. The skipper Michael Clarke, the aforementioned David Hussey and all-rounder Shane Watson. The latter is perhaps the most important player of all. A huge presence at the top of the order, one of the safest pairs of hands in the slips and a much under-rated bowler. He's clever with the pace and lengths he bowls and has a knack of breaking partnerships.

As for the wicket-keeper, the days of the chirpy Brad Haddin seem to be over and the impressive and aggressive batting of Matthew Wade will be interesting to keep an eye on for the first time on English soil.

Having said all this, it's not often we get the chance to back England to win an ODI series at home at a price of 2.2. You have to go back a long time to find the last instance of England losing a 50-over series as hosts and everyone has looked very comfortable with Alastair Cook's captaincy since he took over.

A possible concern for England is that Tim Bresnan may be coming in one place too high in the order at seven, something that man Watson was quick to pick up on. This could be reason for concern because so many of England's runs in recent times have come from the top order. Even someone like Eoin Morgan, who normally bats at five, hasn't spent too much time at the crease over the past few months. If England find themselves 60-4 the lower-middle order will have to stand up and be counted. Watson may have a point when he says he'd rather have Wade than Bresnan at seven but let's wait and see how the likes of Morgan, Jonny Bairstow, Craig Kieswetter and Stuart Broad cope when it comes to it.

This will be a close series so 3-2 to either side is worth a look but I think England will carry the momentum from the ODI series wins over Pakistan and the West Indies into this contest and just about edge it.

Alastair Cook has looked in sublime form in all formats and will enjoy the pace coming onto the bat with a new ball at both ends. I just can't look beyond him for top series batsman honours at around 4.5, though Ian Bell and Jonathan Trott are likely to make decent contributions too.

Stuart Broad gets the nod from me to be England's top wicket-taker in the series at around 4.0. He seems to be getting better and better all the time and ended the 2009 Ashes series as England's top wicket-taker so he clearly likes bowling against the Aussies.

Back England to win the series @ 2.2
Back Alastair Cook to be England top series batsman @ 4.5
Back Stuart Broad to be top England wicket-taker @ 4.5

For more exclusive Michael Vaughan content, go to http://betting.betfair.com/cricket/michaelvaughan/

In the end the West Indies put in a far more spirited and disciplined performance than many would have expected in the First Test. If the tail had added 30 or 40 more runs; if Kemar Roach had dismissed Ian Bell or Alastair Cook early on day five...who knows?

But that may well have been Darren Sammy's best chance of avoiding a whitewash for his side. England let them back into the game on day four and I'm not too sure that's going to happen again. In Roach, the Windies have a classy speed merchant, a genuine threat with the new ball. And in Shivnarine Chanderpaul an outstanding batsman in all conditions who virtually guarantees the side runs. That's why he's the number one ranked Test batsman in the world. But beyond that there aren't really any outstanding performers. The other bowlers may bowl the odd really good delivery and some of the batsmen can come in and play an entertaining cameo here and there with some attractive strokes. But this is Test cricket. It's meant to last near-on five days and consistency and concentration are what this game is all about. And I'm not sure the Windies have enough of those qualities to be competitive in the second and third tests.

The ball will swing at Trent Bridge, it always does. And that's why it's imperative that Ravi Rampaul plays if he's fit, coming in for the injured Shannon Gabriel. Sammy may also decide that it's worth bringing in spinner Shane Shillingford, possibly at the expense of Kirk Edwards, who really struggled in the First Test and just didn't look comfortable at the crease. He never looked like he was going to get any runs. It would mean that Sammy himself would have to move up to seven, with wicket-keeper Dinesh Ramdin coming in at six, but it would give the team a better balance.

One man we're very unlikely to see though is Chris Gayle. I know it would make for a good story - the self-exiled former captain returns to the Test team and blasts a century in tough conditions. But I can't see it happening. For starters he's not actually in the squad, secondly it's been ages since he's played anything other than limited-overs cricket and finally I'm not sure bringing him back to face James Anderson and Stuart Broad when the ball is bending this way and that would be of benefit to anyone in the Windies camp, including Gayle.

England are likely to remain unchanged - why change a winning team? That should give Tim Bresnan a chance to extend his remarkable run of winning every Test match he's ever played in.

With the ball likely to swing a lot against an in-form attack, the West Indies may be in for a real hiding. If England bowl first and dismiss them cheaply first time round, this could all be over by day three so it's worth having a bet on the days 1, 2 and 3 runner in the Test match end market at around 11.0. If England bat first it could go on for longer but even then I'd fancy England to dismiss the opposition cheaply twice (they may even ask them to follow-on if the game pans out that way) which would bring morning of day four into the equation at around 9.0.

I've sang the praises of Chanderpaul already here but that's for a reason. He's not pleasing on the eye and he takes his time to get his runs but the little left-hander is a class act and epitomises all the qualities that the best Test batsmen possess. He's a shorter price at around 3.7 than i normally like to tip someone up at for top bat honours but he really is that good.

As for England, Ian Bell played two near-flawless knocks in the First Test and we all know what a fantastic player he can be when in form. He was seeing the ball well at Lord's and playing virtually every shot in the book. I won't be backing him to top score because there are a number of England batsmen who look in really good nick but I like Bell to score 50 in the first innings at around 2.6.

1 pt Back Test Match End days 1,2 and 3 @ 11.0; 1 pt Back Test Match end morning day 4 @ 9.0
1 pt Back Chanderpaul to be West Indies first innings top batsman @ 3.7
1 pt Back Ian Bell to score 50 or more in the first innings @ 2.6

For more cricket betting articles, go to http://betting.betfair.com/cricket/