mvaughan

There seems to be some rather confused thinking in the Australian camp just now. They lost narrowly in the 1st ODI and might have well have won had Matthew Wade not got run out when he did. Yet that defeat let to wholesale changes. They were obviously unfortunate to have lost Pat Cummins to injury and I've no problem with Mitchell Johnson being brought in but I think they should have stuck with Clint McKay as Brett Lee's new-ball partner. Those loose deliveries and no-balls from Johnson first up put Australia under the cosh from very early on. George Bailey was shifted down the order for the second match, Steve Smith was dropped and all in all there were just too many changes in terms of both tactics and personnel.

One thing they need to address is how to play Graeme Swann better. The Nottinghamshire man normally has plenty of protection on the boundary when he bowls but that does mean there are singles all over the place to be had. You have to score at a run rate of at least four an over when Swann is on but Australia just didn't rotate the strike well enough and allowed themselves to get bogged down. That was a big factor in them finishing about 30 runs short of a par score in those conditions

As for England, it was nice to see Ravi Bopara play such a mature innings. He looks more confident, he's playing with a straighter bat and paced his innings just right. With Kevin Pietersen out of the picture in limited-overs cricket he'll feel that as well as he plays well enough he won't be under any pressure for his place. But he does need to perform. For the remainder of this series, the Test series against South Africa, the T20 World Cup and the ODI series against India. If over the next five months he plays like we all know he can, he will have cemented his place in the England set-up for the next couple of years. But if he doesn't, we may just have reached the stage where he's run out of chances.

England are 2-0 up and look a better balanced ODI side than Australia in these conditions. Any personnel changes (Jade Dernbach is out of the series and will be replaced by Stuart Meaker or Chris Woakes) are down to injury because this side looks a very settled one where everyone knows what is expected of them. England may perhaps the lack the unpredictability of Pakistan or the individual brilliance that some of the Indian batsmen are capable of but they play hard, solid, disciplined ODI cricket. Sharp fielding, accurate bowling, sensible batting. Why then are England the outsiders at 2.06 to win at Edgabston? I certainly don't know because in my book they should comfortable pre-toss favourites. Even if the match gets reduced to 30 or 40 overs a side I'm not sure this would help Australia's cause. Steve Finn is in great form and if the tourists took too many risks against him too early on they could find themselves in a spot of bother. All in all, England are a confident selection.

But one market where Australia may have the edge is when it comes to scoring most sixes. It's only really Eoin Morgan who regularly clears the boundary rope for England whereas the Aussies have six-hitters in Shane Watson, David Warner and David Hussey (plus Johnson and Lee down the order) so it's surprising that the market finds the two hard to split. Any quote of evens (2.0) about Australia looks a bet.

Ian Bell looks in sublime form and will enjoy batting on his home ground but I think we'll have to look a little bit lower down the order for England top bat honours. The ball could move around early on a wicket that could be a juicy one as a result of the rain so it's the middle-order batters we should look to. Ravi Bopara will no doubt have support after his knock the other day but Morgan is the man to side with at around 6.6. He continues to be England's most consistent batsman in this format and has played two crucial innings so far in this series. He's certainly the value call.

Back England to win @ 2.06
Back Australia to hit the most sixes @ 2.0
Back Eoin Morgan to be Top England batsman @ 6.6

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