mvaughan

In the end the West Indies put in a far more spirited and disciplined performance than many would have expected in the First Test. If the tail had added 30 or 40 more runs; if Kemar Roach had dismissed Ian Bell or Alastair Cook early on day five...who knows?

But that may well have been Darren Sammy's best chance of avoiding a whitewash for his side. England let them back into the game on day four and I'm not too sure that's going to happen again. In Roach, the Windies have a classy speed merchant, a genuine threat with the new ball. And in Shivnarine Chanderpaul an outstanding batsman in all conditions who virtually guarantees the side runs. That's why he's the number one ranked Test batsman in the world. But beyond that there aren't really any outstanding performers. The other bowlers may bowl the odd really good delivery and some of the batsmen can come in and play an entertaining cameo here and there with some attractive strokes. But this is Test cricket. It's meant to last near-on five days and consistency and concentration are what this game is all about. And I'm not sure the Windies have enough of those qualities to be competitive in the second and third tests.

The ball will swing at Trent Bridge, it always does. And that's why it's imperative that Ravi Rampaul plays if he's fit, coming in for the injured Shannon Gabriel. Sammy may also decide that it's worth bringing in spinner Shane Shillingford, possibly at the expense of Kirk Edwards, who really struggled in the First Test and just didn't look comfortable at the crease. He never looked like he was going to get any runs. It would mean that Sammy himself would have to move up to seven, with wicket-keeper Dinesh Ramdin coming in at six, but it would give the team a better balance.

One man we're very unlikely to see though is Chris Gayle. I know it would make for a good story - the self-exiled former captain returns to the Test team and blasts a century in tough conditions. But I can't see it happening. For starters he's not actually in the squad, secondly it's been ages since he's played anything other than limited-overs cricket and finally I'm not sure bringing him back to face James Anderson and Stuart Broad when the ball is bending this way and that would be of benefit to anyone in the Windies camp, including Gayle.

England are likely to remain unchanged - why change a winning team? That should give Tim Bresnan a chance to extend his remarkable run of winning every Test match he's ever played in.

With the ball likely to swing a lot against an in-form attack, the West Indies may be in for a real hiding. If England bowl first and dismiss them cheaply first time round, this could all be over by day three so it's worth having a bet on the days 1, 2 and 3 runner in the Test match end market at around 11.0. If England bat first it could go on for longer but even then I'd fancy England to dismiss the opposition cheaply twice (they may even ask them to follow-on if the game pans out that way) which would bring morning of day four into the equation at around 9.0.

I've sang the praises of Chanderpaul already here but that's for a reason. He's not pleasing on the eye and he takes his time to get his runs but the little left-hander is a class act and epitomises all the qualities that the best Test batsmen possess. He's a shorter price at around 3.7 than i normally like to tip someone up at for top bat honours but he really is that good.

As for England, Ian Bell played two near-flawless knocks in the First Test and we all know what a fantastic player he can be when in form. He was seeing the ball well at Lord's and playing virtually every shot in the book. I won't be backing him to top score because there are a number of England batsmen who look in really good nick but I like Bell to score 50 in the first innings at around 2.6.

1 pt Back Test Match End days 1,2 and 3 @ 11.0; 1 pt Back Test Match end morning day 4 @ 9.0
1 pt Back Chanderpaul to be West Indies first innings top batsman @ 3.7
1 pt Back Ian Bell to score 50 or more in the first innings @ 2.6

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