mvaughan

So here we are in Adelaide, venue of one of England's most heart-breaking Ashes defeats of all. Four years ago England appeared to have batted Australia out of the game only for Shane Warne to rip through Andrew Flintoff's line-up and for the home team to chase a challenging total in quickfire time. The fact that it produced a result has to therefore be taken with a pinch of salt; the draw was the most likely outcome for the vast majority of the game and only the genius of Warne and England's brittle batting stopped the stalemate from happening. But Hollywood's sole contribution will be coming from the commentary box this time while England are less prone to collapses these days.

It has rained a little over the past few days so if it gets very hot all of a sudden there could be some moisture on the pitch. If there is, and whoever fields first manages to bowl in the right areas, and catches are taken, early wickets could tumble and the batting side will be under pressure early on. Those are a lot of 'ifs' though and the damage will need to be done on that first morning because, a bit like Brisbane, there's every chance this wicket will get better and better and batting will become easier and easier. A set batsman at the crease on days two and three can really get stuck into the bowling and I wouldn't be surprised to see some more big team and individual scores.

I'm clearly not the only one thinking along these lines because the draw is favourite at 2.06 but that has to be the call. This Australian bowling attack doesn't look capable of taking 20 wickets on a pitch not offering any assistance. England's bowlers are in form but so are Michael Hussey, Brad Haddin, Ricky Ponting and to a lesser extent Shane Watson.

Ponting looked particularly comfortable in that second innings, has a good record at the ground and as I've said already, will have to answer his critics with big runs given how much his captaincy has been criticised. He gets my vote for the top Aussie first innings batsman at 5.2.

As the records tumbled in the second innings courtesy of Andrew Strauss, Alastair Cook and Jonathan Trott, I'm sure Kevin Pietersen will have been wishing he'd had the chance to come in and knock off some cheap runs on that Brisbane track. He'll have a chance to show us what he's all about here in Adelaide and my gut feeling is he'll make the most of it. He played a great innings here four years ago and at around 5.2 looks the pick to top score for England in their first knock.

Recommended Bets:

Back the draw in the Second Test at 2.06
Back Ricky Ponting to top score for Australia in the first innings at 5.2
Back Kevin Pietersen to top score for England in the first innings at 5.2

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