mvaughan

A devastating spell of fast bowling from Mitchell Johnson has left England in deep trouble and another super effort from the left-arm quick would give England no chance. But big totals have been chased at Perth before so England aren't out of it just yet.


Anyone looking at the scores Australia and England mustered in their first innings at Perth could be forgiven for thinking this is a pitch with some serious demons. I'm not sure that's the case though. Australia succumbed to some fine bowling from the likes of Chris Tremlett and James Anderson on a day when England also fielded extremely well, taking almost every catch that was up for grabs.

As far as England's first innings went, it was simply the 'Mitchell Johnson story' this afternoon. Having bowled erratically in the first Test he bowled absolutely beautifully all day today: full, quick and at times getting the ball to swing, something that no-one else has managed to do. England will look back at some of their dismissals and consider them to be rather soft which just further backs up my original point - this pitch is a better one than those two first innings totals suggest.

It's an obvious thing to say but tomorrow's early exchanges will be absolutely crucial. To have any chance of not losing the Test England will have to break up the Shane Watson/Mike Hussey partnership early, hope the wicket stays quick for the first couple of sessions, dismiss Australia within 40 overs and then hope the pitch slows down a little when they bat again. Pretty straightforward then!

We saw South Africa chase down 414 here a couple of years ago, only losing four wickets in the process, but for England to do so would be a huge ask.

England fans can take some comfort from the fact that in recent times Australia have thrown away some really strong positions but they'll have to bowl out of their skins, take every chance that comes their way and hope for a little bit of good fortune too. I can envisage Australia getting to 300 runs in their second innings, which is around 1.65 to back, and setting England just under 400 to chase. If they get off to a good start and the Aussies start to panic you never know, but if Johnson can bowl anything like he did the first time then I'm afraid the Series will be tied at 1-1 going to Melbourne.

Ian Bell looked pretty good again on his way to another half-century before chasing a wide one and being caught. Whether he's promoted up the order at some stage with Paul Colingwood dropping down to six remains to be seen. Bell's playing beautifully and the last thing England want is to have him stuck batting with the tail again, but my gut instinct is that he'll come in his usual slot this time round and maybe move up the order in the next match if Colly fails to get runs again. In the meanwhile, the man they call the 'Sherminator' gets the nod to top score again in the second innings at 6.0.

Recommended Bets:

Back Australia to score over 300 runs in their second innings at 1.65
Back Ian Bell to top score for England in their second innings at 6.0


(Read Michael Vaughan’s Ashes opinions by visiting http://betting.betfair.com/cricket/ashes-betting/)