mr moloko

Good morning.
Three picks today and just a brief summary.

Hamilton 7.45

Colonel Mak is 2/2 over the C/D, his jockey has a 25% strike rate for the stable and a 21% record at the course. He's ran well of late on not the most suitable ground and conditions look more in his favour today.

Mister Hughie had some very smart form last year and looked to be coming to hand last time over 5f at York. Despite a mark of 100 he could well be competitive today.

Newbury 5.20

If the visor does the trick Breakheart is very well handicapped for this and has run well here before and drops in class here off a good mark.

COLONEL MAK 1 POINT E/W AT 10/1 (BOG)

MISTER HUGHIE 1 POINT E/W AT 14/1 (BOG)

BREAKHEART 1 POINT E/W AT 11/2 (BOG)

A good week to retrieve the dent that last weeks patent put into the blog.

On Friday Awsaal who ran a fair race at Royal Ascot on soft ground previously kept up the good record John Dunlop has at York when obliging at 14/1 and was well supported finishing at 6/1 SP.
A welcome return of 18.8 points.
Waldvogel drifted out to 25/1 but put in a very good effort to chase down Awsaal and the result would have been better here if he had but can't complain ! He returned 6 points for the place.

On Saturday Al Khaleej ran fairly well in 9th and looks worth keeping in mind for a similar race in the future probably with a little more juice in the ground. The other selection Shamandar ran down the field.

Constant Contact finished 7th at York, a creditable run but not enough to make a return. Could see him going back to 8f and feel he could win again.

TOTAL STAKES 10 POINTS

TOTAL RETURNS AWSAAL 18.8 POINTS 1ST AT 14/1
     
              WALDVOGEL 6 POINTS 2ND AT 25/1 (BOG)

              TOTAL PROFIT 14.8 POINTS

OVERALL STAKES 209 POINTS

OVERALL RETURNS 199.60 POINTS

OVERALL LOSS -9.4 POINTS   

Good evening.
A good Friday to bring the blog back to something respectable so hoping I can build on that on Saturday.
Posted earlier on one selection, Al Khaleej for the Bunbury Cup at 25/1 and he's now best at 20's.

7f form figures of 12043021.
2/3 on the July course over 7 & 8f.
Beat Manassas over the C/D last year and had him back in 4th the run before at Goodwood.
Rain around which will help his cause. Lightly raced for a 7yr old.
Top RPR and good speed rating, ran well in big fields,class winner.
Put's in the odd shocker as on his reappearance over 8f this season.
Comes here fresher than most.
25/1 e/w makes a lot of appeal and 33/1 with the sponsors.
Anyone care to join me.
All thoughts welcome. 

My other selection is Shamandar at 16/1 who ran with great promise first time out over 7f at Ascot behind Hawkeythenoo and then ran down the field at Group 2 level at Royal Ascot. Worth forgiving that run and looks to have e/w claims.

In the John Smiths Cup Pekan Star looks the one to beat most obviously but I feel Constant Contact is very overpriced at 16/1.
Reading between the lines his win over Hedwynn reads really well as does his win last year over Invincible Soul (just beaten by Beachfire over 10f at Goodwood and 2nd in last years Brittania)over 8f at Windsor.
He looked to go wrong after that but has returned this year much better.
Amazingly the last five winners of this race had a claimer aboard and with a stable in tip top form at the minute I feel he is well worth a go at a huge price.

AL KHALEEJ 1 POINT E/W AT 25/1 (BOG)
SHAMANDAR 1 POINT E/W AT 16/1

CONSTANT CONTACT 1 POINT E/W AT 16/1 (BOG)

Good morning.
Briefly two selections who I feel are well handicapped and look up to winning at this level who look overpriced.

AWSAAL 1 POINT E/W AT 14/1 (BOG)

WALDVOGEL 1 POINT E/W AT 12/1 (BOG)

TOTAL STAKES 4 POINTS

Good morning !
Well the big payout didn't come off at all. Man Of Action ran ok in 6th
but ran as if the run was needed which was his first after being gelded.
Ironically I mentioned he had beat Highland Knight previously. Enough said. Still I thought Man Of Action ran well enough to bear in mind again for the future.

A similar thing happened in the 3.25 having mentioned the Channon stable were going very well to see Halicarnus romp to victory there with Very Good Day stuck back in 11th. He looks like one who may need a bit of friendly persuasion to get going.

In the last Swilly Ferry ran a fair 5th running on late to suggest his turn is not far away although that's my third try this season with him with no returns.

All in all results wise a poor day and with a patent returning zero a dent put in to the blog results with work to do.

TOTAL STAKES 20 POINTS
TOTAL RETURNS NONE !
LOSS -20 POINTS

OVERALL STAKES 199 POINTS
OVERALL RETURNS 174.80 POINTS
OVERALL LOSS -24.20 POINTS

The patent was costly with a loss of 14 points but sometimes they are well worth a try, unfortunately though not his week. So a bit to do to repair the damage and break into some kind of profit here. Here's to a decent July.       

Good evening.

I'm trying two more selections tomorrow as singles in the shape of Man Of Action and Swilly Ferry in the Sandown 2.35 and the 4.30 at Haydock.

Man Of Action seems to be the forgotten horse of this race due to a terrible run first time out around the tight turns of Chester for his new stable.
Gelded since that and with a visor fitted tomorrow he looks a huge price on last years form where he was improving rapidly finishing off with an excellent 2nd to Side Glance over 7f at Ascot.
He beat Highland Knight fairly comfortably over 7f on his second start and improved on that in subsquent runs. He's run 3/1 in 16+ runner fields and feel he has been underrated for tomorrows race.
I noticed he got the mention of impressed in the weekender gallops reports and feel the stable must have a really clear view of the race with Invisible Man having finished 3rd in this years Hunt Cup.


Swilly Ferry has been a previous selection here twice and a mention that he has won his 3rd start of each season. Unfortunatley that 3rd run this year came in the Wokingham although I cant complain about the result ! I feel he is worth one more try with a drop in grade and rating and proven in big fields over 6f at class 2 level.
A price of 20/1 looks well worth a try.

MAN OF ACTION 1 POINT E/W AT 14/1 (BOG)

SWILLY FERRY 1 POINT E/W AT 20/1 (BOG)

Sometimes it's worth trying a small outlay for a huge return although not something I do very often but at the odds on offer for the three picks I'm going to go for a e/w patent of 1 point e/w for a potential huge payout !!

1 POINT E/W PATENT
MAN OF ACTION 14/1
VERY GOOD DAY 28/1
SWILLY FERRY 20/1
ALL BOG TOTAL STAKES 14 POINTS

ALL STAKES 20 POINTS INCLUDING VERY GOOD DAY SINGLE AT 33/1.

That took some writing.
Best of luck with your picks and goodnight.

There's some great stats and info on the antepost forum thread on the Old Newton Cup and Very Good Day actually fits quite a few of them despite his uninspiring form figures this year.
However on his form of last year he looks to have a fair chance.
A 3rd to a Group One Royal Ascot winner is obviously a stand out and he went on to win his maiden over the C/D after that before being thrown in to Group 3 company which was a bit much.
Starting this year with a probably needed run over 14f and then saved for the Duke Of Edingburgh where he really didn't get going on the soft ground.
Worth a try I feel at 33/1 on much more suitable ground and a realistic handicap mark now from a stable that have hit 10 winners and 10 places from 46 runners in the last 14 days

1 POINT E/W VERY GOOD DAY AT 33/1 (BOG)

Good morning.
14 points used this week and 13.5 points returned so no damage done on the week either way.
Leviathan just managed to get up on the line for the 2 point win at 7/2 for a 9 point return.
On Friday Noodles Blue Boy ran a great race to finish 2nd at 14/1 for a 4.5 point return and adds another place to his Newcastle record .
Yesterday one of the three selections Edge Closer ran well at a big price for quite a way before fading and could be worth keeping an eye out for I feel. Incredibly my other two selections in that race were unseated riders where there was a clipped heels incident. Thankfully all horses and jockeys ok although David Probert had precautionary x-ray checks.
Friday's other selection Racy was a bit dissapointing back in 6th.
Linnens Star finished down the field in Leviathan's race and perhaps he might be seen at a longer trip next time. He looks well handicapped but might be ready for 10f now ?

TOTAL STAKES 14 POINTS

TOTAL RETURNS 13.5 POINTS

LEVIATHAN 1ST AT 7/2 9 POINTS

NOODLES BLUE BOY 2ND AT 14/1 4.5 POINTS

TOTAL LOSS -0.5 POINTS

OVERALL STAKES 179 POINTS
OVERALL RETURNS 174.80 POINTS
OVERALL LOSS -4.2 POINTS

Plenty of possible races today but I like the look of the 3.30 at Windsor at the prices.
A three pronged approach worked well for the Wokingham last week so I shall try that again.
Busy dad day today so briefly, Edge Closer,new stable,gone well fresh before, fair record at Windsor,well handicapped on first start.
Mon Cadeaux reverts back to 6f where he had a good record at 2.
Worth a try and feel he may well try and lead all the way.
Little Garcon tends to need his first run off a break but has some smart form and feel he may be ready for this and looks a big price on his best form.

EDGE CLOSER 1 POINT E/W AT 40/1 (BOG)
MON CADEAUX 1 POINT E/W AT 16/1 (BOG)
LITTLE GARCON 1 POINT E/W AT 22/1 (BOG)

TOTAL STAKES 6 POINTS

Good morning.
A decent 5f sprint tonight at Newcastle where stamina may be needed.

There's plenty of pace in the race which should suit Racy who ran a promising race first time out before running 6th at Musselburgh from a difficult draw chasing the pace. He has ran well at 6f before which should help and feel this stiff course and ground over 5f will suit.
he's open to improvement as well with just 9 career starts.

Noodles Blue Boy is in form, likes the ground and has a great record here.
It reads 02121225 over 5 & 6 f with the 5th actually winning his side when the field split. Over 5f it reads 2121. He's on a fair mark and feel he can at least make the frame at a decent price and with such a good course record may will be able to add another win.

RACY 1 POINT E/W AT 8/1 (BOG)

NOODLES BLUE BOY 1 POINT E/W AT 14/1 (BOG)

TOTAL STAKES 4 POINTS.

* Leviathan managed to get up on the line the other day at Salisbury to bring the blog back into a small profit. I'll record all results/stakes etc at the end of each week now, so will do an update on the Sunday of each week.