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Contrarian Handicapping

Results/Returns 22/8/11

22 Aug 11 08:41
Good morning.
York was a bit of a struggle earlier in the week but Moyenne Corniche
came with a great run late in the day to take the Ebor at 25/1 which was very welcome indeed.
TOTAL STAKES FOR ALL YORK SELECTIONS 22 POINTS

TOTAL RETURNS 33.25 POINTS MOYENNE CORNICHE 1ST AT 25/1

TOTAL PROFIT +11.25 POINTS

OVERALL STAKES 281 POINTS

OVERALL RETURNS 263.97 POINTS

OVERALL LOSS -17.03 POINTS

From my "having a breakdown post" it was pretty clear that using 2/3 selections was key so I shall keep a record of how their faring as well. Moyenne Corniche took those profits to +34.57 points with 182 points invested against returns of 216.57 points.
The total of races in that sphere has now reached 42 with returns of any type in 21 of them with six winners found, 7 winning returns and 8 losing returns.

The next six months will more than likely see concentration on that approach and hopefully it will bring the blog as a whole back into some profit overall.   
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Extra Ebor pick

20 Aug 11 09:54
Good morning.
I've decided to go three pronged for the Ebor at the prices and the third pick goes to Harlestone Times who may well have finished a lot closer last time on his first try at the trip had he not been so badly hampered.
He is progressing well and may well find the trip to his liking.

HARLESTONE TIMES 1 POINT E/W AT 22/1 (BOG FIRST FIVE)
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The Ebor (second strings)

19 Aug 11 17:03
Good afternoon.
It's been a struggle here this week at York but hopefully the Ebor will produce a winner.
Totally overlooked is Moyenne Corniche at a huge price.
He's 6 but has little mileage on the clock and this trip may well prove ideal. A good 5th to Tominater over 16f reads really well as does his placed form over 12 & 14f. His trainer thinks he will make the first four but feel he could go really close despite his stablemate being well ahead in the betting. He's won a 20 runner race back a while (his sole win) but he still looks capable of adding to that. 25/1 is a very big price given his form over 12 & 14f and feel he has a great e/w chance.

Another who is the perceived second string is Blissful Moment who looks capable of more and could also relish the step up in trip.
Lightly raced and going the right way he has been given a break after another good 2nd at Ascot.

Both selections look to have been given a break for this and feel they could both go very well with lots in their favour.

MOYENNE CORNICHE 1 POINT E/W AT 25/1 (BOG)

BLISSFUL MOMENT 1 POINT E/W AT 12/1 (BOG)
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Good morning.
Not having the greatest week so far but soldiering on.

Sharaayeen travelled well last time and looked unlucky. Back to 12f should help and has a fair chance.

Waldvogel was a pick when chasing down Awsaal here over the C/D.
At a big price he looks worth keeping faith with.

SHARAAYEEN 1 POINT E/W AT 12/1

WALDVOGEL 1 POINT E/W AT 20/1 (BOG)

TOTAL STAKES 4 POINTS
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York 3.05 selections

18 Aug 11 09:46
Good morning.
No joy yesterday although Master Of Arts came there strongly 2f out only to weaken out of things late on and will surely be going back to 8f next time.

Two selections towards the head of the betting today.

Harrison George who is back to a decent mark and loves the course.
His trainer seems very keen on him today and the ground should be ideal.

Mont Agel who ran a most promising race here first time out and should run another one today hopefully.

HARRISON GEORGE 1 POINT E/W AT 10/1 (BOG)

MONT AGEL 1 POINT E/W AT 10/1 (BOG)

TOTAL STAKES 4 POINTS
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York Day 1 selections

17 Aug 11 09:36
Good morning.
In keeping with my previous post two selections in each race.

York 2.00
A race that looks wide open and I feel it's worth taking a chance on the lightly raced 3yr old Shropshire who could be a sprinter in disguise. Off a mark of 90 and with few runs on the board he looks to have some scope for improvement.

Midnight Martini was a selection here back in May when running a good 5th to Hoof It over 6f. Her most recent run was 3rd to the Great St Wilfrid winner Pepper Lane again over 6f. She likes the course and drops back to 5f here where she is 41120 with the 4th and the 0 being both seasonal debut's.

York 4.50

Master Of Arts a selection on his reappeance looks a very big price as I felt that was a good run after a lengthy break and a run of potential. It was only 11 days ago so there is a concern it may come to quickly and there is a step up in trip but I feel he is overpriced
at 25/1 and looks worth a try.

From the same stable is the improving Ithoughtitwasover who is heading in the right direction and his experience may help over the favoutite Eagles Peak at a very short price.

SHROPSHIRE 1 POINT E/W AT 12/1 (BOG)

MIDNIGHT MARTINI 1 POINT E/W AT 14/1 (BOG)

MASTER OF ARTS 1 POINT E/W AT 25/1 (BOG)

ITHOUGHTITWASOVER 1 POINT E/W AT 8/1

TOTAL STAKES 8 POINTS
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I'm having a breakdown

15 Aug 11 09:34
Good morning.
Selections from the two previous Saturday's have bought no returns and a loss of 14 points which takes the blog overall to a figure of -28.28 points after six months.
This is not good so I decided to break things down a little to see where things were and how to turn things around with a little tweaking.

Firstly a 14 point patent produced zero returns so amounts for half of the overall loss.

Golf selections earlier in the year made a loss of 10.2 points.
25 points stakes with returns of 14.8 points.
However Webb Simpson who was backed at 160 on here and finished 2nd traded odds on in the final round but for the sake of aftertiming no trades were recorded here on him.   

The big dent in losses comes from single selections.
There were 30 of them to equal sixty points staked but the returns were just 32.60 points to produce a 27.40 point loss. Just seven returns there with one winner, although Right Step at 25/1 was a good 2nd but unfortunatley came up agains't a in form Pekan Star.

Best performing came in the shape of races where two or three selections were made.
Points staked were 160 and returns were 183.32 points equalling a 23.32 point profit.
Here there were 37 races with returns made in 20 of them with 5 races including the winner. 7 races produced a winning return and 8 races a losing return.

Overall then a loss.
259 points stakes with returns of 230.72 points = -28.28 points

From breaking things down though you can get a much clearer picture of positives and negatives and it's fairly clear where they are !
Hopefully the next six months will show an improvement here not just in results but also approach. It's a long road but it helps from time to time to just take a step back and see what's happening.
It doesn't look like there will be many single selections appearing here again or 14 point patents !
Here's to a better next six months.
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Extra St Wilfrid pick

12 Aug 11 21:40
Good evening.
Both the original two selections of Fastha & Addictive Dream have shortened somewhat and indications are that they have been pricewised by Sir Tom.
Off the radar at 33/1 is Gallagher from stall 11 who is well handicapped now and with the sprint king. He was well supported on his first run back for new connections and has some smart easy ground form. In the back of my mind is an Ayr Gold Cup plan but at 33/1 I will add him to the two to make a three pronged approach.

GALLAGHER 1 POINT E/W 33/1 (BOG) 
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Good morning.

Here's my picks at the prices.

Fastha has ran some cracking races this year on ground less than ideal but tomorrow he looks to finally have his ground.
Over 6f on g/s or worse it reads 3201216 with the 6th in this years Wokingham.
His ability to stay 7f might also be a benefit with plenty of pace and the ground on the slow side. A class 2 winner at the distance and looks on a winning mark.

Addictive Dream looked a shade unlucky last week on slower ground over 5f with the first time cheekpieces and coming back to 6f looks a good move.
His 6f form reads 0 (debut) 2132414. Both 4th's were in fields of 16 & 18.
Lightly raced and looks capable of even better.

FASTHA 1 POINT E/W AT 14/1 (BOG)

ADDICTIVE DREAM 1 POINT E/W AT 12/1 (BOG)


Interesting preview over on the Sporting Life where even Adrian Nicholls may have forgotten about the change in stall numbers on right handed tracks !
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Good morning.

Just the selections and prices here on a busy Saturday

MASTER OF ARTS 1 POINT E/W AT 14/1 (BOG) ASCOT 12.50

MISTER MANANNAN 1 POINT E/W AT 20/1 (BOG) ASCOT 2.00

CITRUS STAR 1 POINT E/W AT 9/1 (BOG) NEWMARKET 2.40

ORATORY 1 POINT E/W AT 16/1 (BOG) HAYDOCK 5.35

TOTAL STAKES 8 POINTS
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