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Contrarian Handicapping

Salisbury 3.50 Thoughts

22 Jun 11 10:00
Good morning.
Leviathan has been supported before and looks to have a decent chance. His 2nd to Dunno with Julienas in third is very strong form. Mr Fallon takes the ride today and he looks sure to go close.
Further down the card the one I like the look of is Linnens Star. The stable had a winner yesterday and the stable look to be coming into form. Linnens Star had some fair form last year after winning his maiden. He was not far behind Julienas over 8f at Sandown last year when giving him weight and his 4th to Carnaby Street over 7f on soft ground with Bullwhip back in 7th reads well. Bullwhip had finished ahead of Leviathan again over 7f on soft ground previously.
Linnens Star looks on a fair mark now and with the benefit of two runs should be near match fit today with a stable looking to be coming into form.

LINNENS STAR  1 POINT E/W AT 12/1 (BOG)
LEVIATHAN 2 POINTS WIN AT 7/2 (BOG)

TOTAL STAKES 4 POINTS
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Royal Ascot returns

20 Jun 11 08:04
Good morning.
A nice result on Saturday with the Wokingham 1/2.
Courageous just missed out on the fifth place on Friday at 20/1 beaten a head by stablemate Docofthebay but nice to come away with a profit from the meeting.
Leviathan back in May came up against an inspired ride from Phillip Robinson on Dunno. The third that day was no less than the Hunt Cup winner Julienas !   

STAKES INCLUDING LEVIATHAN AND ALL ROYAL ASCOT SELECTIONS.

TOTAL STAKES 22 POINTS

TOTAL RETURNS  33.1 POINTS

TOTAL PROFIT 11.1 POINTS

LEVIATHAN 2.1 POINTS (RULE 4)2ND.

SWILLY FERRY 2 POINTS N/R (BUCKINGHAM PALACE)

KAJIMA 2 POINTS N/R (BUCKINGHAM PALACE)

ANMAR 2 POINTS N/R (WOLVERTON)

WAFFLE 5 POINTS 2ND AT 16/1 (WOKINGHAM)

DEACON BLUES 20 POINTS 1ST AT 9/1 (WOKINGHAM)

OVERALL STAKES 165 POINTS

OVERALL RETURNS 161.30 POINTS

OVERALL LOSS - 3.7 POINTS

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Good morning. A busy day today so just the selections.

WAFFLE 1 POINT E/W AT 16/1 (BOG FIRST FIVE)
SWILLY FERRY 1 POINT E/W AT 50/1 (BOG FIRST FIVE)
DEACON BLUES 2 POINTS WIN AT 9/1 (HILLS)

TOTAL STAKES 6 POINTS
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Two non runners so I will side with third rated Courageous who had some fair form in his early days with some cut in the ground and it would be no suprise to see an improved run today with Mr Fallon aboard.

1 POINT E/W COURAGEOUS 20/1 (BOG FIRST FIVE )

TOTAL STAKES 2 POINTS
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Good evening.
Here's a few picks for Friday who might run better than their price reflects.

Ascot 4.25

There seems to be a large number of the field who prefer to race from off the pace and with the going and more rain around I feel the best place to be may well be at the head of affairs.
Annmar has figures of 111 for his seasonal reappearance so the fact he races here off such a huge break may not be as bad as it seems. I feel he might well get a easy lead and while everyone is sorting themselves out I'll be hoping he will have flown away !

World Heritage hasn't run to badly on ground that probably isn't ideal on his first two starts here. I feel he could also be racing prominently and the ground should be to his liking.

ANMAR 1 POINT E/W AT 33/1 (BOG)
WORLD HERITAGE 1 POINT E/W AT 33/1 (BOG)

Ascot 5.35

Swilly Ferry has won his 3rd start of his last two seasons and has won in a big field.
He shaped well on his reappearance but then run down the field at York where he raced prominently. At 4 I feel 7f may be what he needs now and he's a big price for a class 2 winner on a fair mark with a trainer who has won the race before.

Kajima is totally unfancied at the prices but had some fair form last year before running down the field behind Docofthebay after a break. He obviously needed the run first time out this year and also held a Hunt Cup entry. Some of his form last year reads very well and feel he could put in a big show at a big price.

SWILLY FERRY 1 POINT E/W AT 40/1 (BOG)
KAJIMA 1 POINT E/W AT 50/1 (BOG)   

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It's been a while !

15 Jun 11 06:33
With the joys of moving,getting sorted out,trying to get a internet connection etc. now behind me I am back online just in time for Ascot which may be  a good thing or very bad timing.
Still here we go.
Keep it simple but feel two claimers may will make a big difference to todays Hunt Cup.Both selections have ran very well in the grade,trip and have done well in large fields. Super Say looks capable of even better.

SELECTIONS

SUPER SAY 1 POINT E/W AT 14/1 (BOG FIRST FIVE PLACES)

PROPONENT 1 POINT E/W AT 25/1 (BOG FIRST FIVE PLACES)

TOTAL STAKES 4 POINTS
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Sandown 8.45 Selection

26 May 11 10:12
Good morning.

Leviathan who was a selection when a fair 7th in the Spring Cup is nominated again at a decent price tonight.
He couldn't get going last time over 7f when making a lengthy trip to Newcastle but should be better suited going back up to 8f. The feeling is he could make up into a decent 8f class 2 handicapper so a win tonight will help him get into those races.Hopefully that will happen tonight !

LEVIATHAN 1 POINT E/W AT 10/1 (BOG)
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The title sums up recent efforts.
Both Douze Points and Laylas Hero finished out the back on Thursday for a 4 point loss and Saturdays selections fared no better, all out with the washing although Swiss Franc was hampered and stumbled. Cumulus Nimbus ran ok but 12f is to far and it looks like it's back to 10f for him for the future. Hopefully the handicapper will drop him a little for the run.
Big Noise was always in rear and just never got into things.

TOTAL STAKES 10 POINTS (19/5 & 21/5)

RETURNS ZERO POINTS

LOSS -10 POINTS

OVERALL STAKES 143 POINTS

OVERALL RETURNS 128.20 POINTS

OVERALL LOSS - 14.80 POINTS
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Saturday Selections

21 May 11 09:43
Good morning.
The usual brief weekend selections !

Two previously selected runners and one new one that caught the eye.

Goodwood 2.45
Cumulus Nimbus attempts 12f again but this time at handicap level.
A win and a 4th to Beachfire at the course and could go well.

York 3.45
Swiss Franc was not beaten far on his reappearance and the stable are starting to fire.
A decent price and not without a chance.

Newbury 7.05
Big Noise drops in class and rating and attempts 8f again after a fair reappearance run.

CUMULUS NIMBUS 1 POINT E/W AT 14/1 (BOG)

SWISS FRANC 1 POINT E/W AT 20/1

BIG NOISE 1 POINT E/W AT 16/1 (BOG)

TOTAL STAKES 6 POINTS
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Haydock 4.00 Selections

19 May 11 09:47
Douze Points and Laylas Hero were both selected for the Victoria Cup but both failed to make the frame.
Despite that I am giving them a chance again as both ran with promise on their first runs and now drop in grade to class 3 level.

LAYLA'S HERO 1 POINT E/W AT 25/1 (TOTE)

DOUZE POINTS 1 POINT E/W AT 16/1 (BOG)

TOTAL STAKES 4 POINTS
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