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Contrarian Handicapping

How am I doing ?

16 May 11 10:15
Good morning.

The blog remains in a small loss overall.
After 133 points invested to stand at -4.8 points.

Ever the optimist I'm actually quite pleased with results overall despite the above.
There's been quite a few selections that have run really well at very big prices and it's those that have proved very valuable in keeping the returns coming in and confidence at a fair level.
It's a frustrating game at times when a head or a neck can make all the difference although I'm a great believer in everything evening out in the end.
Yes it would be nice to see a few of the runners hitting the goal but by the very nature of the selections patience is a must !
Overall I've only actually selected two outright winners !
Which is why the E/W option is nearly always used. It's not for everyone but it works for me as it keeps plenty of returns coming in and doesn't dent confidence which is a key to the long term.
Hopefully over the long term the blog will build some profits which would be nice !
We shall see.

All comments/thoughts welcome.
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Stakes/Returns 14/5/2011

14 May 11 19:43
Good evening.

Able Master was a N/R at Newbury.

Viva Vettori was well supported but started very slowly and took a journey that ended up on the stands rail before running on to 7th. It was a puzzling run.

STAKES 4 POINTS

RETURNS 2 POINTS (N/R)

LOSS - 2 POINTS

OVERALL STAKES 133 POINTS

OVERALL RETURNS 128.20 POINTS

OVERALL LOSS -4.80 POINTS
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Good evening.

Just a short write up for two Saturday selections at decent prices.

Newbury 2.35

Able Master.

I tried this one a few times last year but he only showed up in one race when a decent 8th in the Ayr Silver Cup off a break. That was a decent run and feel there is still ability there.
He starts the year off 92 which gives him every chance if able to replicate his strong 3yr old form.
He's gone well first time out before and off a break and I shall keep the faith at 25/1.

Newmarket 1.45

Viva Vettori.

He was a selection last time but despite showing good speed for a long way to the furlong pole, weakened out of things. The stable haven't started in the greatest of form but a few glimmers lately make me feel that he is worth another try and the run may well have been needed. He's yet to win on turf but has some solid pieces of form at class 2 level which make me feel he can win with this drop in class.

ABLE MASTER 1 POINT E/W AT 25/1 (BOG)

VIVA VETTORI 1 POINT E/W AT 20/1 (BOG)
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Midnight Martini ran a great race but was just pipped for 4th pace by Docofthebay towards the finish.
Still she goes in the notebook but probably won't be todays price next time !

Swilly Ferry ran right down the field but feel there will be a race for him this year but maybe needs to drop a few lbs which may well do after todays run.

TOTAL STAKES 4 POINTS

RETURNS 0

LOSS -4 POINTS

OVERALL STAKES 129 POINTS

OVERALL RETURNS 126.20 POINTS

OVERALL LOSS -2.8 POINTS
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Good morning.

Its a dad day here so keeping it brief.

Midnight Martini.
Better for reappearance run.
C/D winner in 20 runner field and feel she will be aiming for the rail
and could well get run of the race out front.
Fair mark on her 2yr old form and could go well.

Swilly Ferry
Fair reappearance.
Not out of this off 100.
Stable in form. Likes a rail to run close to.
17 runner + form reads 33415100500.
340 over the C/D with the 0 on soft ground

Thats it !

MIDNIGHT MARTINI 1 POINT E/W AT 20/1 (BOG)

SWILLY FERRY 1 POINT E/W AT 28/1 (BOG)
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Two returns from three selections so can't complain.
Dance And Dance a strong 3rd but was always going to be difficult to beat the two next to the rail.

TOTAL STAKES 6 POINTS

RETURNS 6 POINTS JUDGE N JURY 4TH AT 20/1

        4.5 POINTS DANCE AND DANCE 3RD AT 14/1

TOTAL RETURNS 10.5 POINTS

PROFIT 4.5 POINTS

OVERALL STAKES 125 POINTS

OVERALL RETURNS 126.20 POINTS

OVERALL PROFIT 1.20 POINTS ! (better than a loss though !)
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The Hambleton Handicap

12 May 11 08:42
If your prepared to forgive a poor run then Dance And Dance looks a very big price for this at 14/1.
He's thrown in the odd poor race before but I think he's worth a try today with Mr Dettori booked.
Prior to his most recent run at Sandown he has form figures of 312 at todays trip.
His win at Newmarket last year reads well beating Gunner Lindley with Credit Swap in 4th as does of course his 2nd to Eton Forever. Those two runs give him every chance and he looks a fair e/w try for this race.
Take away his recent run and he would probably be a 6-7/1 chance and is fairly unexposed at the trip.

DANCE AND DANCE 1 POINT E/W AT 14/1 (BOG)
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York 1.30 Thoughts day two

12 May 11 06:24
Good morning at this early hour !

Hoping to go one better than yesterdays 1.30 today.

A cracking 5f sprint to start the day and although not the most original of selections Duchess Dora has to be the first choice. She is clearly well handicapped and was an eyecatcher at Beverley on her reappearance from a tricky draw. She has ran well off a break before with figures of 321 prior to her Beverley run. Her second start figures read 114. She's ran three times at York and has figures of 3/3 over the C/D.She normally races close to the pace which is no bad thing here and looks drawn near the likely pacesetters in the race in 3.The three previous winners of this race have been drawn 1,3 and 4.

The other one I like who may well get the run of the race from out front is Judge N Jury from stall 11.
He should be better for the run at Goodwood where the saddle slipped and Joe Fanning is booked who rode him last year here when a good 2nd to Hamish McGonagall off 95. He has won five of his eight races in fields of 15 or more runners and placed twice as well.
His other try at the C/D was in this race when a fair 5th off 99 when trying to give Johannes 4lb.
He races off 91 today and could be hard to catch.

DUCHESS DORA 2 POINTS WIN AT 8/1 (BOG) (A rare win bet from me !)

JUDGE N JURY 1 POINT E/W AT 20/1 (BOG)

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A great run from Right Step but couldn't hold off Pekan Star.
Still a nice place return of 7.25 points at 25/1 eases the pain a little !

STAKES 2 POINTS

RETURNS 7.25 POINTS

PROFIT 5.25 POINTS

OVERALL STAKES 119 POINTS

OVERALL RETURNS 115.70 POINTS

OVERALL LOSS -3.3 POINTS.

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York 1.30 Thoughts

11 May 11 08:19
Having just lost my original post due to the joys of internet connection I'll try again with a shorter version !

Right Step.
3/2 on his reappearance runs.
2nds to Wigmore Hall,Beachfire,Lost In The Moment,Akhmatova all at the trip and class give a solid chance.
14 career starts so open to more improvement and looked to be doing that end of last year.
Handy 5lb claim from Harry Bentley.
Suited by a big field.
Overpriced on ability over trip and class.

RIGHT STEP 1 POINT E/W AT 25/1 (BOG-VARIOUS FIRMS)
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