LeeDixon

Stoke City v Manchester United, The Britannia Stadium, Saturday 17:30, ESPN

Stoke will be wondering what exactly happened as they suffered an embarrassing defeat against Sunderland, a team who were really struggling prior to that result.

Tony Pulis' side pride themselves on doing the basics right and never allowing themselves to look silly so there will have been plenty of soul-searching in the build up to this big match at home to league leaders Manchester United.

United will be looking back at their own Sunday match against Chelsea and considering themselves pretty fortunate to have won it 3-1. They didn't dominate possession, they could have conceded at least another couple more goals and at times didn't defend well at all. But that's what happens when you're on a roll and you need to make the most of it because at some stage your luck will change.


Match Odds

Stoke will have been working on defence all week in a bid to make sure they keep things tight for as long as possible in this match.

That may result in a less-than-pretty spectacle on Saturday afternoon but it may also result in a good betting strategy for us. United's price of 1.58 looks a tad short and perhaps an exaggerated reaction to the way Stoke played last week but Opta remind us that Manchester United have won all six Premier League games against Stoke City and conceded just two goals. The best way to approach this match is to lay the defending champions at 1.58 with a view to backing them in-play at 2.0 or bigger.

Over/Under 2.5 Goals

Rather like with the match odds market, this one looks slightly skewed as a result of Stoke's last match. Yes, United's matches have tended to be high-scoring recently but any sort of win would be seen as a really positive result for Sir Alex Ferguson as a way of maintaining momentum and keeping up their 100% record.

This could be one of those classic cases of a scrappy goal being the difference and for me it has the makings of a low-scoring affair.

First Goalscorer

Javier Hernandez is probably the player Stoke defenders would have been having nightmares about after that wonder headed goal in this fixture last year, but he's likely to miss out through injury.

According to Opta, Wayne Rooney is only the second player to net in each of his team's first five Premier League games of a season, after Jose Antonio Reyes for Arsenal in 2004. He's also the first player to net nine goals in his first five PL appearances in a season. Rooney to score at anytime at around evens would normally be the bet but seeing as we fancy a low-scoring match it may be worth pushing the boat out a little more and side with him to be first goalscorer at 5.5.

2pts Lay-to-back Manchester United @ 1.58 with a view to backing them @ 2.0
2 pts Back Under 2.5 Goals @ 2.12
1 pt Back Wayne Rooney to be first goalscorer @ 5.5

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Arsenal's rehabilitation continued in midweek with a Champions League point at Borussia Dortmund. Okay, the performance wasn't perfect, but it was a great result and the positivity in the camp should ensure the Gunners return from the north west with three Premier League points.

Blackburn finally ended their losing streak last week with a much-needed draw at Fulham. There were a few encouraging signs too, with Junior Hoilett looking lively as the focal point of their play. He's 50-50 to make Saturday's game as it stands, and Arsenal will need to keep an eye on him if he does.

Steve Kean is talking everything up at the moment, but the bottom line is always your league position and the players and fans know that. Despite Arsenal's relatively poor start, they still possess most of the quality and they should win.

Match Odds
Looking back at my own career we always enjoyed playing at Ewood Park, regularly getting good results against Rovers. And that run has generally continued since my playing days came to an end as the Opta stats underline - Rovers have lost nine times in the Premier League at home to Arsenal, more than against any other opponent on their own patch. Football is a psychological game as much as a physical one and I just see Arsenal being too strong for Rovers both in the head and on the pitch. The price of 1.93 is generous enough to make a simple back of the away team my first bet of the weekend.

Over 2.5 Goals
Just because I fancy Arsenal to win, I wouldn't discount Rovers from scoring. Per Mertesacker is still bedding in and has relationships to build with his team-mates at the back. I think there may be some communication issues with this back four and I can see a Blackburn player getting on the scoresheet, but Arsenal should have too much firepower once the final whistle goes.

Booking Odds
Rightly or wrongly, I still think some teams like to go after Arsenal and we could witness a few tough tackles here. And when we see tough tackles we usually see yellow and red cards.

Recommended Bets
2pts Back Arsenal to win @ 1.93
2pts Back Over 2.5 goals @ evens
1pts Back 9pts or more in the booking odds market @ 2.08

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Saturday's win over Swansea was clearly nothing special but it was three welcome points and I expect this slight improvement in Arsenal's fortunes to continue in Germany on Tuesday night.

After losing 8-2, you take any win and move on and try not to focus on the negatives - there was a lot of nervousness at The Emirates on Saturday and, simply put, the performance wasn't great. But it was a win.

And there is quality in this team in all areas of the pitch. Meanwhile, in the dugout, Arsene Wenger has been here before. Our opponents on Tuesday are not exactly flying themselves and their massive crowd could get on the team's back if they aren't quick out of the blocks.

Match Odds
Per Mertesacker made his debut on Saturday and, apart from a few uneasy moments, looked good. But it will take a while for him to settle into the English game. Most importantly, he needs to switch on to the speed of the English game as soon as possible. That said, he is back on familiar territory on Tuesday night which is handy for Wenger and the team as he will be our spy in the camp.

Dortmund are 11th in the league after five games and that's not ideal. If Arsenal give them a tough time the crowd could get restless and I think that will be Wenger's aim. Keep it tight, soak up pressure and play on the break. Get that crowd of 80,000 grumbling, Arsene!

I know Wenger, and he'll go into the game trying to win. But you have got to be a realist. A draw away from home is a perfectly acceptable start to a Champions League campaign. It's not been Arsenal's finest start to a season but I think there's enough quality and experience in the team to do that, so I'm backing the stalemate at 3.45.

Under 2.5 Goals
As I say, I don't see either team adopting a gung-ho approach. Strip out the United match and Arsenal have conceded two in the Premier League so far. Obviously, another solid performance would be a bonus for the defensive unit and I am backing them to achieve that. Back Under 2.5 goals @ 1.9.

To Score
He's not a shoo-in to make the starting XI but provided he does I really fancy Theo Walcott to trouble Dortmund with his pace. If Arsenal play on the break he is the likeliest candidate to get his name on the scoresheet.

Recommended Bets
2pts Back the draw @ 3.45
2pts Back Under 2.5 goals @ 1.9
1pts Back Theo Walcott to score @ 6.0

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One look at the match and you say to yourself: "There will be goals."

League leaders and reigning champions Manchester United have almost been flawless so far this season. They have scored goals by the hatful and are creating chance after chance.

Bolton have had a tough pair of games since that opening day win at QPR, but they surprised me by scoring so many against Manchester City and Liverpool and actually showed decent form in that pair of games.

Match Odds
I've got a lot of time for Owen Coyle. He has an old-school way about him and I like that. He is so passionate about football, he lives the game and that rubs off on the players. They must enjoy his work ethic and I think his enthusiasm fires them.

Wanderers are good to watch, they play a passing game but can be direct if they need to be with a group of players suited to either task. Ivan Klasnic, in particular, has started the season in very good form.

I see Bolton scoring but I suspect United will have too much firepower and will win by two clear goals. With that in mind, I'm swerving United in the match odds, where they can be backed at 1.46, but will back them on the Asian Handicap market conceding a goal and a goal-and-a-half. If they win by two or more I collect at near even money, if they win by one I lose half my stake, if they don't win, I lose. Simple eh?!

Over 3.5 Goals
As stated above, with United's firepower and Bolton's go-forward mentality, I fancy goals at both ends and am pushing the boat out by taking the 2.8 available on over 3.5, rather than odds-on about over 2.5.

Half-time/Full-time
Bolton will be competitive at home and quite confident of putting one past David De Gea in the United goal. Ultimately though, the visitors have the goods to get themselves out of trouble. A price of 4.8 on a half-time draw with United landing three points at the final whistle suits me. It's a bet that has come in twice from three Premier league games so far this year.

Recommended Bets
2pts Back Man Utd -1 & -1.5 on the Asian Handicap @ 1.9
3pts Back Over 3.5 Goals @ 2.8
1pt Back draw/Man Utd HT/FT @ 4.9

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The much-hyped Liverpool delivered last weekend at the Emirates and look a really good side at the moment. This won't be easy but they should get the better of Owen Coyle's men.

I've been impressed with what I've seen of Liverpool so far. I'll put that somewhat disappointing first day draw at home to Sunderland down to nerves and the pressure of it being their first home game of the season after recruiting all those new players over the summer. But they were really good against Arsenal and sent out a clear message that they consider themselves more than capable of being involved in this year's title race. The fact they could bring two players like Raul Meireles and Luis Suarez off the bench, both of whom had a big impact in the match, shows you the sort of strength in depth they have these days.

Bolton have made a good start themselves though that 4-0 win at QPR was a bit of a freak result in which the margin of victory probably wasn't a true indication of the gulf between the two sides. They were also good against Manchester City and I'd be very surprised if we see too many teams who score twice against Roberto Mancini's defence this term. That said, this trip to Anfield should prove to be a really tough ask.

Match Odds

I really fancy Liverpool to win this because I think that victory over Arsenal has given them huge confidence and they already look like a side with an established game-plan. They have options on the bench and different systems they can turn to if things don't go swimmingly to start with. That said, the 1.47 looks a little short to me and because I think Bolton will offer resistance and this may be a relatively tight match, I'd rather side with the draw at half time/Liverpool to win at full-time option at 4.6.

Over/Under 2.5 Goals

Both of Liverpool's league matches so far have failed to break the 2.5 goals barrier. I suppose you could argue that both of Bolton's have but this one has the makings of a low-scoring match and it's safe to assume Bolton will be less adventurous than they were at Loftus Road. Unders is a relatively confident selection.

First Goalscorer

Luis Suarez is all the rage in the Betfair goalscorer markets at the moment and Andy Carroll is surely due a goal shortly, too. That means they'll make up a decent chunk of the first goalscorer market but it may pay to look a little further down. I always think that attacking midfielders and forwards are very keen to get that first goal for their new side out of the way to relieve some of the pressure, particularly if they cost a lot of money. Step forward Stewart Downing, who looks to be a guaranteed starter and is always a threat from set-pieces and likes to take some long-range shots. At around 12.0 he represents far better value than the front two.

Liverpool clean sheet

I know I've already tipped up 'unders' in this one but I can't take my eyes off the 'yes' option in the Liverpool clean sheet market. I like the look of their back four and fancy them to keep a second consecutive clean sheet.

1 pt Back Draw/Liverpool @ 4.6
3 pts Back Under 2.5 goals @ 2.24
1 pt Back Stewart Downing to be first goalscorer @ 12.0
3 pts Back 'yes' in the Liverpool clean sheet market @ 2.2

For more Lee Dixon articles, go to http://betting.betfair.com/football/leedixon/

These two have started the season well and this should be a really good game of football. Darren Bent will, as ever, be the key man in trying to help Villa get all three points.

Two sides who have started the season brightly go head-to-head in this Midlands derby. Wolves have been the surprise package so far with two wins from two matches and only the two Manchesters are above them in the table. Villa were held to a goalless draw by Fulham first up but impressed in beating Blackburn convincingly last week. This is a match I'm really looking forward to and one I think can be highly entertaining for the neutral. That's me, by the way.

Match Odds

Alex McLeish had a big job on his hands when it came to replacing the now-departed wide men Ashley Young and Stewart Downing. Charles n'Zogbia was the player he chose to come into the side and provide chances for Darren Bent to convert into goals. The former Wigan star has had a somewhat quiet couple of games so far but I'm expecting a big season from him and he could end up being one of the stars of the Premier League this campaign.

Wolves made a super signing of their own in the form of Roger Johnson and Mick McCarthy will feel that his defence looks much stronger now that the former Birmingham man is a part of it. He's a brave, strong player with a great sense of positioning and he'll have to be at his best on Saturday afternoon if the visitors are to get anything from the match.

I don't think there'll be too much between these two sides but at odds-against, Villa represent the value to come away with all three points.

Over/Under 2.5 goals

I watched plenty of Wolves last season as part of my Match Of The Day 2 duties and I don't think I remember a dull game in which they were involved in. They may not be the most technically gifted side in the world but they score a few and they concede a fair few. With some in-form attacking players on the pitch I'm pretty confident that over 2.5 goals barrier will be broken.

Correct Score

A fair few goals in a Villa win is the way I see this match pan out so the logical conclusion is to have a punt on the 2-1 scoreline at 9.6. I've said there isn't too much between these two sides but home advantage could be crucial.

First Goalscorer

Those who read my preview of the Premier League top goalscorer market will know that Darren Bent was my strongest selection. At Charlton and Sunderland the game plan was a simple one. Pick Darren Bent and then organise the rest of the team in a way that best allows you to provide him with good service.

He scores all types of goals, some of them are far from pretty finishes. But like Robbie Fowler a decade or so ago, he always seems to be in the right place, sniffing out chances and getting on the end of deflected crosses or being the first to the ball after a save from the keeper. One pays big bucks for these sort of players but Bent will reward you with goals.

2 pts Back Aston Villa to win @ 2.12
3 pts Back over 2.5 goals @ 2.06
1 pt Aston Villa to win 2-1 @ 9.6
2 pts Darren Bent to be first goalscorer @ 5.5

To read more Lee Dixon articles, go to http://betting.betfair.com/football/leedixon/

Arsenal versus Manchester United has been one of the fiercest rivalries in football for a while now and was a match that I always looked forward to playing in. It somehow meant more than most of the other matches we played over the course of a season. And it wasn't just because we were often competing for the title that it was a little bit different. I played against Sir Alex Ferguson's men on numerous occasions and there were two matches that really stood out and which I remember best.

Old Trafford October 1990

Many people believe this was the match that really sparked the rivalry between the two clubs. Even before kick-off there was just something in the air that felt like this wasn't going to be an ordinary game of football. There was a definite tension when we were in the tunnel waiting to get out on the pitch.

The first thing to say about it was that it was actually a really good game of football which we ended up winning 1-0 courtesy of an Anders Limpar goal. But most people won't even remember the score line. What they will remember was the 20-man brawl. It all started when Nigel Winterburn made a big tackle on Dennis Irwin. Brian McClair took offence to it and just started kicking Nigel whilst he was still on the floor. Limpar was the Arsenal player closest to all this and went in to help out his mate. It's funny because he would be the last player in the world you'd expect to get involved in something like that but good on him that he saw what was going on and went in to try to stop McClair from kicking lumps out of our Nigel.

In a matter of seconds everyone was involved: pushing, shoving, shouting, from what I remember there were even a couple of punches thrown. Everyone except David Seaman and I that was! I was on the opposite side of the pitch to all this and David was never the quickest so by the time we'd got there it was pretty much all over.

The FA actually deducted two points from us and one from United because of it but we ended up winning the league anyway. All's well that ends well!


Old Trafford March 1998

United had a 13 point lead over us going into this match, though I seem to remember we did have a couple of games in hand. They also had a few injuries to key players at the time and that gave us belief that if we somehow managed to win this match we were still very much in the title race.

And win it we did. Marc Overmars scored with a neat finish about 10 minutes from time and we hung on for a priceless win. That started a run of 13 straight wins, something that seems unthinkable these days. We ended up winning the title with two games to go, even though I recall we actually lost those last two. We also won the FA Cup of course but that was definitely the match that turned our whole season around.

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There was a lot to like about United last week, and they should be confident ahead of this Monday night fixture at Old Trafford. We obviously can't say the same about Spurs after the postponement of their game against Everton due to the riots, but the 5-0 win over Hearts was encouraging. Going to Tynecastle and Old Trafford are two very different tasks, however, and Tottenham's record at United is so bad that this has to go down as a home win.

Match Odds
Looking at previous results you can't really build a case for Tottenham in this fixture. When they go to Old Trafford, it ends in a home win.

In fact when they play United, they rarely get anything from the game. The Opta stats show it's been 20 Premier League matches, home and away, since Spurs defeated United, so it seems surprising that the home team have traded as high as 1.75 on Betfair and are as big as 1.69 as I write. It may be odds-on but, to me, that is a value price. I'm throwing everything in the United basket here with a straightforward back of United.

Correct Score
Some would say the only dark cloud for United ahead of this fixture is the state of the back four, but I don't buy into it. Rio Ferdinand and Nemanja Vidic will miss the game but Chris Smalling and Phil Jones are more than able deputies and, despite a few mistakes, I even like the goalkeeper!

I think Arsene Wenger went for both Jones and Smalling and my old manager is just about the best judge of young talent in the game. In particular, I really like Smalling. He reads the game well, can play a number of positions and has a good spring on him. His game belies his age really, he looks so comfortable on the ball. It's a big thing putting a Manchester United kit on and many players have fallen by the wayside, but it doesn't seem to have affected Smalling.

In fact, my faith in the United back four is so strong I'm going to play a couple of options in the Correct Score market - 2-0 and 3-0 - as I think Spurs will struggle to score.

First Goalscorer
One of the highlights of the first weekend was the return to form of Fernando Torres and Wayne Rooney was another big name in form during those first matches.

We did a feature about Wayne on Match of the Day and he looks like he's getting back to his very best. He will get plenty of goals this season, no doubt. I was also impressed by Ashley Young, who gave the team plenty of width and pace in attack. Both are lively candidates to break the deadlock at Old Trafford but I'll take the favourite as my bet - when Wayne is in the mood he can go on long goalscoring runs and it wouldn't surprise me at all if he found the back of the net again on Monday.

Recommended Bets
Back Manchester United to win @ 1.69
Back United to win 2-0 @ 10.0 and 3-0 @ 17.0
Back Wayne Rooney to score first @ 5.0

For more football betting articles, go to http://betting.betfair.com/football/