LeeDixon

Match Odds

Spurs were without some key on-field personnel on Sunday so credit to the squad players for coming through and helping the team dig out another win. Ultimately, I'm not convinced the squad is deep enough to sustain any more injuries to key players but it looks as though two who missed the Sunderland game - Gareth Bale and Jermain Defoe - will make the London derby with Chelsea.

After defeating Manchester City it was a real surprise to see such an abject performance from Chelsea at the DW Stadium. Few players emerged from that game with any credit, just as we expected the Blues to kick on with a sustained Premier League run.

So it seems like Chelsea are still a work in progress, especially at the back where the mistakes continue. David Luiz, absent for the last couple of matches, has been responsible for a lot of that, but I'm not sure anyone is totally innocent among the entire backline. The balance is not quite right there and it looks to be something that will come back and bite them all season long.

In truth, this is a tough betting heat and a case can be made for any of the three possible match odds results. Spurs are the marginal favourites at 2.66, with Chelsea 2.86 to win, but I think the draw is the likeliest result at 3.55. Two of Chelsea's last five visits to White Hart Lane have ended in the stalemate and I think these two teams look especially evenly-matched here.


Over/Under 2.5 Goals

Tottenham's strength is in midfield and I expect Andre Villas-Boas to continue with the combative pairing of Raul Meireles and Oriol Romeu in the centre, so Frank Lampard may start another game on the bench. Despite Chelsea's defensive wobbles they have conceded just seven times on the road, with Tottenham letting in the same number at home. There will be no lack of passion at the Lane but goals could be in short supply.


To Score

Emmanuel Adebayor doesn't boast a good scoring record against the Blues - Opta tell us he has registered once in eight games vs Chelsea - but he is central to Tottenham's attacking effort and has been unlucky to have scored just one goal in the last three games.


Recommended Bets

2pts Back the draw @ 3.55
2pts Back Under 2.5 goals @ 1.93
1pt Back Emmanuel Adebayor to score at 3.0


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Match Odds/Asian Handicap

The Latics showed no lack of character, spirit and endeavour when holding Chelsea to a draw last weekend, but I don't see lightning striking twice at the DW Stadium.

Liverpool are coming to the boil nicely under Kenny Dalglish. Their combination of pacey attack and very solid defence has developed into a good mix, especially so away from home where they have won five from eight.

In Luis Suarez the Reds have a goalscorer and proven point winner, while Craig Bellamy creates chances for all. I was even impressed by Jordan Henderson last weekend. The youngster has taken some stick this season but it takes time and he may be ready to really perform now.

Wigan will have gained some confidence from Saturday's point, but that could be their downfall. Chelsea didn't lose just because of a Petr Cech mistake, the home side played their part in the result, but a home record of one win and three draws in eight games doesn't inspire and I think Liverpool have enough about them to pull off a third successive win.

Rather than take the 1.55 about an away win I'm going to look for bigger odds by backing the Reds -1 on the Asian Handicap. If Liverpool win by two or more we'll near enough double our money, if it's a victory by one goal, our stake is returned.


Over/Under 2.5 Goals

Preference here is for Unders, but I fancy Liverpool to keep a clean sheet (see below) and I'd be surprised if the Reds went out and scored three of their own, so rather than putting all my eggs in one basket I'll be leaving this market alone.


Liverpool Clean Sheet

The Reds' rearguard is currently ranked the league's best, having conceded just 13 goals, and at odds-against I fancy their chances of registering a seventh clean sheet of the campaign. Further encouragement comes from the Opta stats which point out that Wigan have scored just eight goals in 12 league meetings with Liverpool.


To Score

Luis Suarez hasn't been as prolific as many have expected but he's not been particularly lucky either, hitting the woodwork twice against Aston Villa. He looked threatening on Sunday and maybe the settled squad is about to bring out the best in him.


Recommended Bets

2pts Back Liverpool -1 on the Asian Handicap @ 1.94
2pts Back a Liverpool clean sheet @ 2.1
2pts Back Luis Suarez to score @ 2.2


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Match Odds / Half-time/Full-time

This midweek feast of televised Premier League action kicks off with a real relegation battle. This one looks a proper humdinger at Ewood Park, and a game that many people will be judging as a battle between two managers, with the loser out of a job once it's all over. A look at the table confirms that defeat could be fatal for either Steve Kean or Owen Coyle with Rovers and Wanderers 19th and 20th in the table, uncomfortably off the pace having gone two fifths of the way through this Premier League campaign.

I'm sure both Kean and Coyle genuinely wish each other well, but either will be delighted to pull off a win, regardless of the ramifications for the other man. Defeat would leave either club marooned at the bottom of the table.

These two clubs - and their managers - have been saved by the competitive nature of the relegation battle. In recent weeks, a win has been enough to shoot you three of four places up the table but Rovers and Wanderers find themselves a couple of points off the opposition now. It only makes this game even more competitive.

I can see the match panning out one of two ways: either cagey and tight as each tries to avoid making a mistake, or open and end-to-end with both determined to score the goals that will land that much-needed three points.

Whichever way it goes - and I lean towards the first scenario of those listed above - I think Rovers will be the ones cheering at the end. Losing at home to West Brom wasn't good, but it was typically close whereas Bolton seem to lose by a wider margin more often. I've said before that the Rovers team is showing a bit of fight for Kean and I think they can bring home a welcome three points here. In fact, I am tempted to play up that bet with a more ballsy back of Blackburn/Blackburn in the half-time/full-time market at 3.75. Extra confidence is gleaned from the fact that, as Opta point out, Blackburn have won six and lost just one of the last nine Premier League meetings with Bolton


Under 2.5 Goals

I said above that I see this one being more cagey than open and that informs my betting on the goals markets. Bolton have found goals hard to come by in recent weeks and I think that trend can continue at Ewood Park. I fancy this one will finish unders might just be a bit of value at 2.26.


To Score First

One man has scored more than two-fifths of Blackburn's total league goals and, while Yakubu didn't score against the Baggies, I don't think he's gone cold quite yet. A back of the Nigerian to open the scoring is my fourth and final bet for Tuesday night's basement battle.


Recommended Bets

2pts Back Blackburn to win @ 2.18
1pt Back Blackburn/Blackburn in HT/FT @ 3.75
2pts Back Under 2.5 goals @ 2.26
1pt Back Yakubu to score first @ 6.0


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Moment of 2011: Cadel Evans winning the Tour De France,the gritty Australian finally lands the big one. I love him!

Performance of 2011: Team GB for putting Mark Cavendish in the perfect position to win the Rainbow Jersey and become World Champion.

Hero of 2011: Robin Van Persie because his 2011 scoring record is up there with Cristiano Ronaldo and Lionel Messi!

Villain of 2011: Has to be Carlos Tevez. Never has one man upset two sides of a city more than this man.

Bet for 2012: Man City to win the Premier League! I backed them in the summer.

For more exclusive Lee Dixon content, go to http://betting.betfair.com/football/leedixon/

Match Odds
Is Chelsea's house back in order after that pair of 3-0 wins? I'm not convinced just yet. Even though things look a little rosier at Stamford Bridge now, the truth is that the defence has been in terrible nick in recent weeks and that can't be solved overnight.

And this will be the acid test of the backline as City bring the Premier League's best attack to west London, one that neither Valencia or Newcastle can match.

At the other end of the pitch, the Blues boast a rejuvenated Didier Drogba spearheading their attack. I'm sure he'll start on Monday night as he was fearsome on Tuesday. You have to play strikers when they're in form and the Drog looks back to his best.

With both attacks so strong, and so much riding on the game I can see goals at either end and really don't foresee either team recording a clean sheet. City will come to London wanting a win, especially after dropping out of the Champions League and with United likely to be just two points behind them.

But a score draw is how I see this one ending and a straightforward back of the stalemate will be my first bet.

Overs/Unders
There may be a smattering of internationals across either defence but this one will surely see goals. Over 2.5 it is for me!

To Score
As I say, the Drog is looking good... so unleash him, AVB! DD is an obvious choice in the 'to score' market but he's in the mood, and an opportunity has arisen to reclaim the first-choice striker status at Stamford Bridge. He won't let it pass. On the other side of the ball, Sergio Aguero has scored in two straight and can make it three in a row here.

Halftime/Full-time
Something tells me City will be out of the blocks fast but a proud Chelsea side can haul them in - a small wager on City/Draw at odds of around 18 rounds out my betting for the weekend.

Recommended Bets
2pts Back the draw @ 3.5
2pts Back Over 2.5 goals @ 1.91
1pt Back Drogba to score
1pt Back Aguero to score
1pt Back City/draw, HT/FT @ 18.0

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Liverpool need to start winning matches such as these if they're going to finish in the Top Four and at a ground where they won easily last year, they should be able to do so again this time round.

If you're going to aim one piece of criticism at Liverpool for what they've done this season it would be that they haven't won matches they've gone into as clear favourites.

Draws against both Manchesters and wins away at the likes of Chelsea and Everton are a good indication of how they can raise their game for the big matches but all that hard work is undone when you draw at home to the likes of Norwich and Stoke.

Match Odds

This match will therefore be a good indication of whether this is where they kick on and win a game they start as favourites (2.24) or drop points having put in two good performances against Manchester City (league) and Chelsea (Carling Cup) over the last week.

As for Fulham, they'll be confident after that draw at Arsenal because few expected it but let's not hide from the fact that the Gunners would have won the match with a little more luck. It's also worth remembering the Opta stat that Fulham have won just one of their last eight Premier League games at Craven Cottage (W1 D4 L3), a run which started with a 2-5 defeat by Liverpool on a Monday night in May. Not good reading for their fans.

Liverpool should be too good for them and pick up a good three points that will help them move closer to a Top Four finish. I tipped them to do just that at the start of the season and they're very much on course to.

Over/Under 2.5 Goals

Fulham have failed to score in six of their last eight Premier League games against Liverpool. That's a pretty baffling stat, now.

And Liverpool haven't been free-scoring themselves and part of the reason for that is that the man who was supposedly meant to do most of the scoring, Andy Carroll, hasn't been in the starting XI for a while now, let alone scoring loads of goals.

Despite that freak 5-2 scoreline last time they played, I expect few goals in this one. If you want a bigger price than the 1.8 on 'unders', 2-0 Liverpool is available at 13.0 and worth considering.

First Goalscorer

We've pretty much ruled out a Fulham goal and Carroll didn't do anything in midweek to suggest he's about to be re-called to the starting line-up for a Premier League match. No-one in Liverpool's midfielder has looked a particularly likely scorer in recent weeks so we have to go with a more reliable option. Luis Suarez is one of those players who always looks like scoring (even when he doesn't). He hasn't scored too many recently but he's my bet to open the scoring here.

Recommended Bets
3 pts Back Liverpool to win @ 2.24
2 pts Back Under 2.5 Goals @ 1.8
1 pt Back 2-0 Liverpool @ 13.0
2 pts Back Luis Suarez to be first goalscorer @ 5.5

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It's been a poor week by Manchester United's standards.

I've praised Newcastle's performance at Old Trafford in my preview of their match against Chelsea already. But whichever way you look at it, that was a match United really should have won if they're going to successfully defend their title. The shock Carling Cup defeat to Crystal Palace was a different story of course because only a couple of the players who started that would possibly feature in Sir Alex's strongest XI. It suggests that maybe there isn't as much talent in reserve at Old Trafford as there has been in yesteryear but that's for him to worry about another day. Let's just focus on this Aston Villa match for the time being.

Match Odds

Aston Villa started the season well and were undefeated for a while but even in those early weeks there were very obvious signs of where their problems lay. They can grind out 0-0 and 1-1 draws with the best of them but don't really have another gear to turn to if they go behind. They're solid and resilient but at times perhaps also lack a little ambition. Seven draws from 13 matches backs that theory up.

Villa Park has been a happy hunting ground for Manchester United over the years. Opta tell us that Man Utd have won 11 times at Villa Park in the Premier League and that only at Everton (14 wins) have they come away with three points more often from an opponent's ground.

Sir Alex will be expecting a reaction from his players and a much-improved performance after what's happened in the last week or so and I think he's going to get one. United should win this.

Over/Under 2.5 Goals

Gabriel Agbonlahor has been in super form this season, scoring goals, creating chances, running at defenders. Darren Bent has just done what Darren Bent does. Five goals from 12 starts without ever putting in a particularly eye-catching performance. But beyond these two there doesn't seem to be much in the way of attacking threats, either from midfield or on the bench. It's in attack that Alex McCleish needs to start looking for new players in the January transfer window.

United have defended better in the league recently whilst not scoring freely themselves so 'unders' looks a good bet at 1.96.

To Score

After adopting a 'horses for courses' approach and playing Wayne Rooney in midfield for a couple of matches last month, Sir Alex restored the former Everton man to his attack on Saturday against Newcastle.

The goals have dried up recently for Rooney but he'll enjoy running at the two Aston Villa centre-backs who have plenty in terms of strength and aerial ability but far less in terms of pace. I fancy Rooney to re-discover his scoring boots on Saturday afternoon.

2 pts Back Manchester United to win @ 1.77
2pts Back Under 2.5 goals @ 1.96
1pt Back Wayne Rooney to score @ 2.3

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There's that famous story about Nikita Kruschev's last days in power. I don't know if it's 100% true but it goes something like this.

When he was being removed from power in the USSR, Kruschev handed Leonid Brezhnev two sealed envelopes marked '1' and '2' and instructed him not to open them until things were going badly and he found himself in a political situation that he was unable to get out of. If he did, he should open the first letter. Some years later, the time came and Brezhnev opened the first envelope. Inside was a letter that simply stated "Blame everything on me." - he did and it saved his political career for a while. A few years later he was faced with further problems that he didn't know how to solve. He then opened the second one - which read "Sit down. Write two letters.".

I'm not sure Carlo Ancelotti handed Andre Villas-Boas any letters before clearing his desk at Stamford Bridge and the young Chelsea boss has so far resisted the temptation to blame others rather than himself but I suspect that at the moment he'd welcome some advice as to how to find a solution to Chelsea's problems. Back-to-back defeats to Liverpool in the space of a couple of weeks were sandwiched by a loss away at Bayer Leverkusen that has put them in serious danger of crashing out of the Champions League.

And things may be about to get worse this weekend.

Match Odds

We've waited and waited for Chelsea's fortunes to change but that simply hasn't happened so far. Fernando Torres is yet to find anything like his best form, Didier Drogba hasn't looked his old self either and though John Terry has been making some headlines by scoring goals, neither his performances nor those of David Luiz have impressed when it comes to basic defending.

But let's not make this all about Chelsea. We've also all waited for Newcastle's fortunes to take a turn for the worse but that hasn't happened either. Yes they were out-played away at Manchester City (who hasn't been this season?) but they went to Old Trafford last week and got a draw. Yes, it was a dubious decision for the penalty but these things happen and I think they deserved a point.

This market has been priced up based on name and reputation rather than facts and recent performances and Newcastle are a great value bet to win at 3.95.

Over/Under 2.5 Goals/Correct Score

Opta tell us that Newcastle have kept just one clean sheet in their last nine Premier League matches whilst Chelsea have kept just two in their last nine matches in all competitions. The difference between the two sets of defences is that Newcastle have fielded virtually the same back five all season and don't look like conceding. Chelsea's defenders look like they don't know each other, let alone played with each other and always look like conceding. Either way, the stats suggest we'll have goals here so I'm backing 2-1 Newcastle at 15.0 and over 2.5 goals at 2.06 are the way to go.

To Score

Demba Ba has been the main man for Alan Pardew when it comes to scoring goals. Opta tell us that he's scored 16 goals so far in 2011 and that only Robin van Persie (31) and Wayne Rooney (19) have scored more. I wouldn't put anyone off backing him again but I'm actually going to side with Leon Best on this occasion. He's going through something of a barren spell at the moment but he could be the man to get on the scoresheet here with Chelsea more worried about Ba.

3 pts Back Newcastle to win @ 3.9
1 pts Back Newcastle to win 2-1 @ 15.0
2 pts Back Over 2.5 goals @ 2.06
1 pt back Leon Best to score at anytime @ 4.0

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I'll do well to match my tipping effort at the weekend where all four of my recommended bets on Norwich v Arsenal won .

If you'd placed £10 on each you would have returned a profit of £91.50. But the good news is that with a third of the season gone, we've seen enough of this 2011-12 version of Arsenal to know what to expect of them. The key of course, is knowing how to profit from that knowledge.


Match Odds

If Arsenal had beaten Marseille a few weeks back like they should have, they would have been pretty much home and dry as regards making the knock-out stages of the Champions League.

But Arsene Wenger decided that captain, talisman and top scorer (he probably drives the team bus, too) Robin van Persie needed a rest and only gave him half an hour in that match. Without him, the Gunners never really got going and drew 0-0. They can't afford any more slip-ups here and I'd be amazed if RVP doesn't start this one, especially after scoring two more at the weekend (shall I mention I tipped that as well? No? OK).

Borussia Dortmund could be excused for really fancying their chances of causing an upset here and going into the final round of fixtures with it all to play for. After all, they're fresh from beating league leaders Bayern Munich at the weekend.

This should be a pretty tight game between two sides who are probably quite evenly matched at this moment in time but Arsenal's extra experience of these type of matches in this competition plus home advantage should get them over the line. Draw/Arsenal in the HT/FT market is also worth including in our portfolio of bets for this match.


Over/Under 2.5 Goals and Correct Score

In the last 13 matches Arsenal have played in all competitions, only twice has the over 2.5 goals barrier not been broken. Interestingly, those two 'anomalies' occurred against the same team - Marseille, whom Arsenal beat 1-0 in France before that aforementioned goalless draw. So we know that matches between those two produce low-scoring games but also that as a general rule Arsenal's games are high-scoring. That's hardly surprising.

In van Persie they have one of the most in-form strikers in Europe and the team continues to adopt an attack-minded philosophy. At the other end, they remain suspect. The goal they conceded away at Norwich was defending the likes of which I last saw in a school playground. I don't expect the floodgates to open because there's so much at stake in this match but 'overs' is a confident selection and 2-1 would be my idea of the most likely scoreline.


To Score

I'm not going to come up with any new and original ways of explaining why backing Robin van Persie to score is a good bet, other than to say: look at his scoring record in 2011 and his record in his last seven matches- ten goals no less. Back him again.

Theo Walcott was lively on Saturday and is due a goal, having created plenty of chances in recent weeks for others to score. He's available at 3.8 and looks a solid bet.


Recommended Bets

2 pts Back Arsenal to win @ 2.16
1 pt Back Draw/Arsenal @ 6.0
2 pts Back Arsenal to win 2-1 @ 10.0
2 pts Back Over 2.5 Goals @ 1.96
Back Robin van Persie to score at anytime @ 2.1
Back Theo Walcott to score at anytime @ 3.8



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Match Odds

When selecting my weekly Banker from the Premier League's fixture list, a Spurs win
is what I went with.

Not that I think this will be a walk in the park for Harry Redknapp's side, where they win by three or four goals. But I do think Spurs are on a pretty good run at the moment and their win at Fulham showed they can be resilient as well as cavalier and grind out results, even when they're on the back foot as they were for most of the second-half in that match. And according to Opta, this is their best ever start to a Premier League campaign with 22 points from their opening 10 matches. And that after losing their first two matches. It's also worth remembering that Tottenham beat Villa home and away last campaign, 2-1 on both occasions.

So plenty of evidence that Spurs should win this match. You can back them at 1.59 but for a bigger return it may be worth looking at the correct score market where 1-0 (11.0) and 2-0 (10.0) are my ideas of a scoreline.

Over/Under 2.5 Goals

You'll already know from my correct score prediction that I fancy this to be a pretty low-scoring match.

In part that has to do with the possibility that two of the most likely scorers (ahead of the match) may miss out. The news is that Rafael van der Vaart actually has a pretty good chance of playing but if he does, he probably won't be 100% fit. And he was the man who scored all four of those Spurs goals against Villa last season.

Aston Villa's joint-top scorer Gabriel Agbonlahor is also struggling with an injury. He may not play, he may only start on the bench but either way, just like the Dutchman, he's unlikely to be at the peak of his powers.

Brad Friedel is in incredible form despite being the wrong side of 40 and that's a further reason why I expect this to be low-scoring. Back 'unders' at a very big 2.44.

To Score

Van der Vaart would normally be the man I'd be looking at but we've already discussed the question marks over his fitness. Emmanuel Adebayor is always a threat but it's now six league matches without a goal so I'm going to take the view that he's out of form rather than that "he's due"!

I prefer the chances of Gareth Bale, who has three in his last two Premier League games and was amongst the goals for Wales at the weekend. Bale is 3.3 to score at anytime and he's my pick in this market.

4 pts Back Spurs to win @ 1.59
1 pt each Back 1-0 @ 11.0 and 2-0 @ 10.0
2 pts Back Under 2.5 goals @ 2.44
2 pts Back Gareth Bale to score @ 3.3

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