LeeDixon

Organisation is key in international tournaments and England have a manager who specialises in it. Roy Hodgson has had little time to prepare for Euro 2012 but the fact that he's the first England boss to have managed at international level before bodes well. One of the reasons Hodgson was unpopular as a Liverpool manager was that he emphasises focus and discipline ahead of flair but, if England string together a few more 1-0 wins over the next few weeks, fans won't be complaining.

We may have lower expectations than at recent tournaments but I think that's a good thing. France are favourites to win Monday night's Group D opener but England might relish underdog status. Laurent Blanc has done a good job since taking over after the 2010 World Cup where Les Bleus failed spectacularly. They're a formidable side and I'm told that they fancy their chances here but they're by no means unbeatable.

Match Odds

Avoid defeat. That's the most important thing in your opener, especially when it's likely to be your toughest Group match. A draw would be a very good result for England and it would be a decent start for the French too.

France are stronger than England in attack. Karim Benzema has had a good season with Real Madrid and is fast establishing himself as one of the world's most potent strikers. France struck nine goals in their warm-up friendlies and they have match-winners throughout the team. John Terry and Joleon Lescott will be wary of Franck Ribery and Samir Nasri in particular.

They might be vulnerable in defence. I've never been convinced by Phillippe Mexes and Patrice Evra had a mixed season with Manchester United. Whether it's Stewart Downing pumping crosses in for Andy Carroll or Steven Gerrard feeding Danny Welbeck, England's depleted strike force might surprise their opponents. England will play on the counter-attack with Ashley Cole and Glen Johnson providing support for the wingers.

Personally, I'd go for it. I'd play Ashley Young and Theo Walcott out wide with Gerrard pushing up, ahead of Scott Parker and James Milner, to support Welbeck. However, I'm hearing that Carroll has got the nod with Young in the hole. A draw would suit both sides so that's what I'm backing.

Unders/Overs

It could easily be 0-0 at half-time. England won't mind France dominating possession and Hodgson will have his team set up to sit back, absorb pressure and hit their opponents on the break. Lack of pace in defence is a perennial problem for England so John Terry and Joleon Lescott need to be hyper-alert for the full 90 minutes if they aren't to be run ragged by Benzema and Ribery. I think England are astute and experienced enough to keep things tight and not buckle as they did when they met France at this stage eight years ago. I'm backing under 2.5 goals.

To score/To be shown a card

I was impressed by how Ashley Young took his chance against Norway, he could revel in the hole behind Carroll so I'll back him to score. Parker will make more tackles than anyone so he could pick up a yellow. However, I'll back both England centre-backs to be shown a card as I can see them being drawn in to rash challenges by France's beguiling attack.


Recommended Bets
3pts Back the draw @ 3.2
2pts Back under 2.5 goals @ 1.51
1pt Back Ashley Young to score
1pt Back John Terry and Joleon Lescott to be show a card

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England expects ... or does it?

It's almost unprecedented in the modern era for England to go into a major tournament with the public expecting so little from them. The reasons for that are obvious: there's a new manager at the helm, they will be without their first-choice striker for the first two games and this is a competition where, 1996 aside, they have traditionally struggled. It's no surprise really and perhaps, after the hysteria of previous tournaments, it's encouraging that people are taking this adult stance on our chances.

And maybe it's a good thing.

In the past the Three Lions have struggled to match the expectations of fans and pundits, yet with the pressure off and hopes at a low ebb perhaps the team can relax and put in a good, solid tournament performance. I don't see us winning the thing, but I do rate Roy Hodgson far higher than many in this country and I think an organised England team have the ability to make the knockout stages.

It won't be easy, as the group opposition is tough, but there is enough quality and experience in the squad to qualify for the knockout stages. We start with France, the favourites to win Group D at 2.8, so our toughest game on paper, but I like that. Hodgson must target a win in that match and, if we get it, I fancy England should be able to get enough from the remaining fixtures, even if we are playing a bogey team (Sweden) and one of the co-hosts (Ukraine).

If England get out of the group our likely quarter-final opponents will be Italy, or possibly Spain (1.6 favourites to win Group C). There's no shame in going out to either team and a competitive performance in that match will probably be enough to classify Euro 2012 a success as Hodgson's era as England manager really gets under way.

Is Roy the boy?

I spent a lot of time with Roy in Cape Town at the 2012 World Cup where we were working for the BBC. We spent hours talking - both of us speak the same football language and I found him enormously impressive. I really believe the players will react to Roy and run through brick walls for him. There are already positive noises coming out of the squad and I'm really positive on Roy's chances of long-term success with England.

More importantly, he is an astute tactician who has done well at international level before, most notably with Switzerland. He arrives in the job after a good season at West Brom and I would readily discount the half-season spent at Anfield, as I don't think the cards were stacked in his favour there.

Carroll is key

This is going to be a huge tournament for Andy Carroll, who will play as our one true striker throughout the first two games while Wayne Rooney is suspended. It's been a tricky season for the big Geordie, who rarely enjoyed a stable run in the Liverpool XI and only began to come good at the end of the campaign. His - and to a degree - our success, will come down to how he deals with the pressure in those early fixtures. Some can cope with it and some can't, but I know I found it a tremendous motivator in my younger days with England. If Carroll succeeds in the first two games without Rooney we will surely be set fair for the knockout stages.

An organised England can progress

England boast one of the international scene's better defences, and this unit looks reliable enough if lacking a little pace in the middle. I'm hopeful that Joleon Lescott and John Terry can organise themselves to deal with that weakness however, and Joe Hart is a fine no.1 who has enjoyed a fantastic season, while Ashley Cole and Glen Johnson offer pace on either flank. Much will come down to whether those right and leftbacks can combine with England's wingmen to provide decent service to Carroll.

In the middle, Scott Parker and captain Steven Gerrard offer good retention and protection but not a huge amount in attack. It's unlikely that Gerrard is going to be making too many lung-busting runs any more.

In short, we look a little light on dynamism and imagination going forward, but can succeed through a well-organised defence and midfield coupled with Premier League quality and strength in attack.

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There was steely resolve about Manchester City's victories over Manchester United and Newcastle which makes me think that they aren't about to blow this golden opportunity to win their first league title for over 40 years. Earlier in the season, the Blues blew away opponents but, in recent weeks, they've ground out results with the focus and professionalism that gets titles won. Sir Alex is ruing United's defeat at Wigan and the draw against Everton but, if it comes down to goal difference, that 6-1 drubbing against City back in October can be seen as a major factor in the destiny of the title.

Roberto Mancini changed the formation against Newcastle and showed tactical acuity when his side needed second-half goals. He's had a full in-tray to deal with this term, managing massive expectations from owners and fans as well as volatile talents Carlos Tevez and Mario Balotelli. Sir Alex has been talking about City's riches this week but, while money gets you a long way, you need more than that to win the Premier League. I applaud Mancini's performance.

Match Odds

Opta highlight two glaring facts: Queens Park Rangers have picked up fewer away points than any other top flight team and City have dropped only two at home all season. Shall I bother going any further?

Ok. The visitors arrive at the Etihad fighting for their lives, knowing a defeat for them and a win for Bolton will send QPR down. Mark Hughes will have them up for this one. The ex-United legend is astute, driven and has unfinished business with City after they harshly sacked him. He has a splendid record away to City - drawing four, winning once, never losing - and he would love to deny his successor. If QPR pull off a shock, chants of "Hughesy" will ring out from the other side of town, or Buckinghamshire or Singapore or wherever it is Red Devils fans live these days.

Sorry, couldn't resist. And who can blame me? I grew up supporting City, listening to United's bragging, and on Sunday - sweet, blue Sunday - I expect my team to do the business.

Half-time/Full-time/Correct Score

I backed Chelsea to thump QPR a fortnight ago because I thought the good feeling around Stamford Bridge following the win over Barcelona would drive the hosts on. A similar thing could happen at the Etihad. Mark Hughes will set his team up to keep it tight for the first 20 minutes and they'd be delighted to go in level at the break. An early goal would settle City's nerves and unleash a wave of euphoria in the stands. If City hit their stride they could win big - I'll have a wager on 3-0 at 8.0 - and I expect them to lead after both 45 and 90 minutes.

To Score/First Goalscorer

Everybody knows what a brilliant attack City boast. However, a mark of a really good team is one where players throughout the squad chip in. I was pleased to see Vincent Kompany and Yaya Toure both scoring in recent matches. If there's a rout on Sunday, they may get in on the act but I expect the two Argentine hit men to find the net too. I'll back Sergio Augero for first goalscorer and Carlos Tevez to score. Will he head for pastures new next term? As the sun sets on another season and a Blue moon rises, few will care.

Recommended Bets
Back Manchester City/Manchester City @ 1.51
Back 3-0 @ 8.0
Back Sergio Aguero to be first goalscorer
Back over 2.5 goals @ 1.4

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Match odds

The stats all say Chelsea have their name on the trophy.

And that they'll win in 90 minutes.

What the stats don't necessarily reflect is that Liverpool go into this match much the fresher team. There was no ball-chasing at the Nou Camp for them last week and Kenny Dalglish rested most of his key players at home to Fulham. You could of course say it was a gamble that went wrong because with all due respect to Martin Jol's side, you don't see Manchester City, Manchester United or Arsenal lose at home to Fulham. I'm sure if Liverpool do win this game that will long be forgotten, though.

The likes of John Terry and Ashley Cole have been playing pretty much non-stop for the past couple of weeks with Branislav Ivanovic suspended in the league and Gary Cahill and David Luiz out injured. At the time of writing both Luiz and Cahill are major doubts for the match. Wembley is a big pitch and the whole experience of playing in an FA Cup final is a draining one, emotionally as much as anything.

I think Chelsea are the better team and the ones carrying the greater momentum, no doubt about that. They deserve to be favourites to win the Cup but fatigue will play a part and they may need more than 90 minutes to prove that. The Blues look a good value lay at 2.5 in the match odds market.

First Goalscorer

Luis Suarez may just have peaked at the right time with this final in mind. A crucial goal in the semi-final against Everton was followed by one of the very best hat-tricks you'll see all season at Carrow Road.

He looks a man in superb form and I've already said the Chelsea defence may be a bit tired. If there's any space behind that back-line to explore he's certainly the guy to do it. And let's face it, if Liverpool are to strike first he really is the most likely man to do so. He looks a good wager at 8.5 to be first goalscorer.

Penalty taken?

And now for something a bit different. There have been just two penalties awarded in Liverpool's last 10 matches and three in Chelsea's last ten. Penalties in FA Cup finals are somewhat rare, too. That's hardly surprising because no-one wants to be the villain that gives away a silly one with the whole world watching.

It's not everyone's sort of price but the 1.4 on there being no penalty in the match looks a big one.

Both teams to score?

It's an incredible statistic and one worth taking note of. Of the last 18 FA Cup finals, both teams have only scored in three of them. Admittedly some of them have looked somewhat one-sided on paper. Manchester United v Millwall (2004), Manchester City v Stoke (2011) and Arsenal v Southampton (2003).

There's no doubting these two teams are more evenly matched than some of those other finals. But the tendency is for a low-scoring affair and 1-0 to either side as well as 0-0 are all strong runners in terms of a correct score. But we can cover all those options by backing 'no' in the "both teams to score?" market and that looks the best bet of the match in light of that initial statistic.

1 pt Lay Chelsea at 2.5
1 pt Back Luis Suarez to be first goalscorer @ 8.5
1 pt Back no penalty taken @ 1.35
3 pts Back "no" in the both teams to score market 2.12

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Match Odds

Norwich are going through something that happens to a lot of newly-promoted clubs. Having guaranteed their stay in the Premier League a few weeks back, they've suffered something of a late-season lull. The Canaries have lost their last four and going back a bit further, it's just one win from their last 11 in the league. In fairness to them, it's not for the want of trying. I think it's just fatigue kicking in. Paul Lambert will be hammering it into his players that he wants to finish as high up in the table as possible and that two points from their last two matches could allow them to move a couple of places up the table which equates to some decent money in the Norwich coffers. I'm not too sure a trip to the Emirates is the sort of fixture they'd want up next though.

As for Arsenal, they'll want to be sure of a top three finish rather than counting on Bayern to give them a helping hand in the Champions League by beating Chelsea. Having worked so hard to recover after that awful start to the season, it would be criminal if the Gunners fell at the last hurdle. I don't think they will and I have a feeling this could be quite comfortable for them. A home win to nil is my first bet of the match at 2.3.

Over/Under 3.5 Goals

I've already said I don't think Norwich will score and I'm not too sure Arsenal are going to goal-crazy either. We have to go back ten matches in the league to find the last time they were involved in a game that had four or more goals (their 5-2 win over Spurs). Norwich have had a couple admittedly, that big 6-1 home defeat to Manchester City and a 2-2 draw with Everton but that's just two from their last 11.

The stats suggest under 3.5 goals shouldn't be an even money shot and I agree. A 2-0 or 3-0 win looks about right but I like a straightforward back of under 3.5 at 2.0.

To Score

All eyes on Robin van Persie as ever but we're not going to get rich backing him. Thomas Vermaelen is the team's fourth-highest scorer with six goals which is remarkable for a man who plays centre-back and one who missed seven matches in a row through injury earlier on in the campaign. Deadly in the air from corners and with a taste for the odd long-range free-kick, the Belgian defender looks a decent bet at around 7.0.

2 pts Back Arsenal to win to nil @ 2.3
2 pts Back under 3.5 goals @ 2.0
1 pt Back Thomas Vermaelen to score at anytime @ 6.0

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Match Odds

One of the keys to Tottenham's superb first half of the season was their strong defence. And no-one was more influential in that than Brad Friedel. The American keeps breaking records and is a credit to himself and the sport. There have always been younger keepers at all the Premier League clubs he's been at, knocking at the door to take his place. But Friedel just keeps on working at his game, training hard, looking after his body and is hungry to keep on playing. For my money he's right up there with the very best keepers the Premier League has had. Peter Schmeichel is normally regarded as the best this league has seen and it's hard to argue with that. But after him I'd probably nominate David Seaman. Yes, of course I'm a little biased! But I played in front of him for years and it wasn't just the saves he made, it was also his presence. We always felt secure with him in goal and never thought he was about to make a mistake. Very similar to Friedel.

Another reason why Spurs did so well at the start of the season was the form of Emmanuel Adebayor. If anyone ever accuses him of being a little selfish, they only need to look at the assists column. It reads 12 to go with the 13 goals he's scored so far. The problem is that the big contributions have dried up of late. Since that 5-2 defeat at Arsenal, he's played seven matches and contributed with just two goals (no assists), both in a 3-1 win over Swansea. So for all the talk of Harry Redknapp being linked to the England job affecting results and some fatigue in the camp, it's fair to say that if Adebayor had carried on playing to the same standard as he was in the first half of the season, results would have been better of late. But it's been a good season for him overall and I have the feeling he likes it at White Hart Lane. Spurs would be advised to sign him up on a permanent deal.

A bit like Wigan, Bolton have saved their best performances for when it's mattered the most. At the business end of the campaign. They followed up a superb win at Villa Park with a good point at Sunderland and having traded at just 1.41 for the drop, they're now out to 2.66. With Wolves gone and Blackburn all but down it looks to be a straight shoot-out between them and 1.69 QPR. A win here would probably leave the west Londoners with too much to do. I'm not sure they'll get it here but I think they can at least avoid defeat so I'm laying Spurs at 1.97.

Over/Under 2.5 Goals

Spurs' performances on the road of late have been rather uninspired. But the recent trend has been for low-scoring games. They drew 0-0 with Sunderland and Chelsea and lost 1-0 at both Everton and QPR in their last four away from home.

Earlier on in the season Bolton were everyone's over 2.5 goals banker. They scored a few, they conceded a lot more. But they've kept things a little bit tighter of late and I think this could go the same way and I like 2.18 on under 2.5 goals.

First Goalscorer

Sometimes a club having a super player on loan creates problems. At the back end of last season Daniel Sturridge was superb for Bolton, offering them pace and goals. But the Trotters didn't really learn how to cope without him this season and have at various times experimented with different players and formations in a bid to score goals.

Ivan Klasnic is the team's top scorer with just eight in the league. He hasn't started that many matches recently and Kevin Davies got two goals at Sunderland so he's likely to start again here. But Owen Coyle may decide to be positive and play Klasnic and Davies upfront together. The Croatian looks a decent price at around 10.0 to open the scoring and he's worth a small bet.

2 pts Lay Spurs @ 1.97
1 pt Back under 2.5 goals @ 2.18
1 pt Back Ivan Klasnic to be first goalscorer @ 10.0

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These two teams experienced hugely contrasting weekends with Liverpool winning handsomely at Norwich shortly after Fulham had been embarrassed at Goodison Park. With Liverpool 1.68 to win the odds say there'll be more of the same on Tuesday, but the Merseyside giants have not it all their own way at Anfield this year and Fulham have shown themselves capable of pulling off the odd big win. Let's see if we can pick out some solid bets ahead of this Tuesday nighter under the Anfield floodlights...

Match Odds
As I mentioned, it's not been the finest season for Liverpool but Kenny Dalglish will be looking to round out a tricky campaign in style with wins in the league's remaining fixtures and more importantly next weekend's FA Cup final.

For me, Liverpool's problems this season stem from the midfield where recent signings have disappointed and key performers have been injured. Charlie Adam, now out for the season, has not performed while Stewart Downing simply hasn't done enough. Jordan Henderson is a good player, and I think he'll be a success, but he's sometimes looked overawed.

So the Liverpool faithful must be delighted to have Steven Gerrard back now and they will be praying that Lucas Leiva comes back repaired and ready for next season. Gerrard's return, and the fact that Fulham have never won at Anfield in the Premier League (thanks for that stat, Opta!) gives me enough confidence to get behind Liverpool for a second win in four days.

Under 2.5 Goals
Luis Suarez's hat-trick at Norwich was a thing of beauty but apart from him few of the men in red look like having goals in them - the Uruguyan has scored five of Liverpool's last eight. I don't think we're in for a hatful and I will be taking odds-against on under 2.5 goals accordingly.

Liverpool Clean Sheet
Liverpool's rearguard has been unexpectedly leaky in recent weeks, not keeping a clean sheet in any competition since mid-March's defeat of Everton. That must make Saturday's shutout of Norwich even sweeter, especially considering the Canaries have been regular scorers at home in their first season back in the Premier League. I like the look of the Liverpool back four and I think another clean sheet can be secured against Martin Jol's outfit.

Recommended Bets
2pts Back Liverpool to win @ 1.68
2pts Back Under 2.5 goals @ 2.12
3pts Back Liverpool clean sheet @ 2.72

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I'm not surprised that Sir Alex Ferguson has hailed Monday night's match as the biggest Manchester derby in his time as United manager. I grew up supporting City and, while local bragging rights were hotly contested around our way, I can't remember a match between the two clubs with so much at stake.

So far this season, they've played three (including the Community Shield) with United winning two and City one, although I think the Blues' 6-1 rout at Old Trafford counts for a lot. Before Christmas it looked like this was City's title to lose, then they fell apart and Sir Alex's men seized the initiative. Like most pundits, I'd written City off.

How wrong I was. Last Sunday's extraordinary 4-4 between United and Everton handed the initiative back to their rivals. The upshot is a mouthwatering fixture which looks likely to settle the title, although I still think City will have to be at their best to take anything from their match against Newcastle.

Match Odds

I don't expect a frenetic the start. The first 20 minutes or so could be cagey and, while City boast an imperious home record, Opta remind us that, in their last five visits to the Etihad, United have lost only once. This fixture underwhelmed last season, finishing 0-0 and, while I think on Monday we'll see a much better game, tactical acuity, focus and resilience may be more important than attacking flair. That might seem like a strange thing to say, with the likes of Wayne Rooney, Carlos Tevez and Sergio Aguero all bang in form, but both managers are experienced operators and they won't wish to give anything away.

The teams haven't produced a draw since they met here last season. That result would suit United and, while I don't expect Sir Alex to tell his players to play for a point, he might be tempted to flood the midfield and get men behind the ball if the score is level late in the second-half.

Under 2.5 goals

Fixtures between these two have produced 17 goals this season. That's a towering stat, almost six goals per game, and, if you anticipate more of the same on Monday, you can get 5.2 on over 4.5 goals. As I say above, I'm not convinced that we'll see the riotous display of attacking football that many anticipate. Opta tell us that City scored their six at Old Trafford from only seven shots on target. That suggests that if you give City's strikers chances they will take them and, with United's defence looking vulnerable, you might expect the Premier League's best attack to take advantage. But I still think both teams will keep this one tight so I'm going to back under 2.5 goals.

To Score

It's set up for Carlos Tevez to score. Spat out by Sir Alex Ferguson, maligned by Roberto Mancini, the Argentine has re-entered the fold and he hasn't done too badly so far. I hadn't expected to see Tevez in a City shirt again so it was surreal to watch him score against West Brom. However, smashing his hat-trick against Norwich he looked like he'd never been away. He'd love to prove a point on Monday and I'm going to back him to find the net. Wayne Rooney, Opta remind us, is on fire with 11 in his last 13 matches, including another two last week.

Recommended Bets
1 pt Back the draw @ 3.65
2 pts Back under 2.5 goals @ 2.26
1pt Back 1-1 @ 8.2
2pts Back Carlos Tevez to score @ 2.7

For more exclusive Lee Dixon content, go to http://betting.betfair.com/football/leedixon/

As a top player you want the big games to come thick and fast at you and you don't want to miss out on any. Over the course of nine days Chelsea will have played Tottenham, Barcelona (twice) and Arsenal and you don't get too many bigger games in club football than those. Still, Roberto Di Matteo is a pragmatic man and now that he's in with a real chance of making the final of the Champions League, we may get a slightly unfamiliar starting XI for Chelsea Saturday lunchtime. And that could be a huge factor in this game.

Match Odds

It's hard to explain how Arsenal lost to Wigan on Monday night.

They had most of the ball, the lion's share of the chances and boasted a wonderful record against Wigan prior to that match. To an extentthat Chelsea can relate to because it was a pretty similar story when they beat Barcelona on Wednesday night, albeit Barca were far more dominant over Chelsea than Arsenal were over Wigan.

A full-strength Chelsea team could have given Arsenal some real headaches here and exploit a somewhat fragile level of confidence after that Wigan defeat. Didier Drogba in particular could give the Arsenal back four some problems, as he has so many times before. But I don't think he'll start and we may even see other key players like Juan Mata or Frank Lampard start on the bench as well. Next Tuesday they'll have to run themselves into the ground to stop Barcelona from overturning that one goal deficit and the players Di Matteo has pencilled in to start that match will need a rest. Fabulous athlete though Drogba is, he's on the wrong side of 30 so that should mean a recall for Fernando Torres for this match, before Drogba is restored to the starting line-up in midweek.

Arsenal will of course have to make do without Mikel Arteta, ruled out till the end of the season. He's been the best of this season's signings. With all due respect to Everton, Arsenal are a club with more realistic chances of silverware and that brings its own pressures. Some players can trake the step up and handle it, some can't. Arteta has shown that he's more than good enough to play Champions League football and hold his own against the very best.

Even without the Spaniard I think Arsenal will win this. Opta tell us their home record this season is very good with 12 wins from 16 matches so far this season in the league and remind us that the Gunners became the first side to score five against Chelsea in the league since Liverpool in September 1996 when they did so towards the start of this year's campaign. With Chelsea having an eye on that Barca tie and Arsenal fully committed to this match I'm taking the 2.0 about the home win.

Over/Under 2.5 Goals

I'm not too sure this match will have the goals and excitement that some may expect. When the big guns have played each other this season we've had some high scoring matches. Manchester United 8 Arsenal 2, Manchester United 1 Manchester City 6, Chelsea 3 Arsenal 5, Arsenal 5 Tottenham 2. But this one may turn out a little different. For starters, these 12:45 kick-offs don't have quite the atmosphere that later kick-offs do.

I've already mentioned the fact Chelsea's forward line may be depleted and have spoken in recent weeks about an improvement in Arsenal's defence, despite the fact they conceded two at home to Wigan. All in all, I can't see too many goals here and 'unders' is very much the bet.

First Goalscorer

It's a shame the voting for PFA Player Of The Year is done as early as January. And it would be a travesty if as a result of that, Robin van Persie doesn't win it. All the other nominees have been extremely good in their own way but van Persie was the captain who prevented his ship from sinking. As some were talking about a mid-table finishes for the Gunners he kept plugging on, scoring goals, dragging his team out of trouble time and time again. No wonder he looks exhausted. But I think he's got one more big performance left in him. Let's just hope it's not his last one in an Arsenal shirt. I'm backing him to open the scoring at around 6.0.

2 pts Back Arsenal to win @ 2.0
2 pts Back under 2.5 goals @ 2.06
1 pt Back Robin van Persie to be first goalscorer @ 6.0

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Everyone will have their own theories to explain Tottenham's recent struggles but the truth is they're not winning matches or playing that well. With QPR enjoying good home form, we need to take on Harry Redknapp's side.

QPR must be feeling pretty hard-done by at the moment. They've done a good job of winning their own matches and some of those were tough, Liverpool and Arsenal for instance. What they didn't count on was that Wigan would perform some giant-killing acts of their own and beat Manchester United at home and Arsenal away.

I think Wolves are definitely down (if not mathematically) and I'm not sure Blackburn have it in them to get six points or more from their last four matches. So it should be a straight shoot-out between QPR and Bolton and it's very much advantage for the Trotters given they have two games in hand. QPR simply can't afford to lose this game.

Match Odds

Spurs are in a slump, no doubt about it. The fans may complain about that 'phantom goal' in the FA Cup and it certainly didn't help matters but I still think they would have lost the match given the way it was going. But this late-season implosion isn't happening for the first time. It was a similar story last season and people will have different theories as to why it happens. Harry Redknapp's link to the England job and the fact that some players like Gareth Bale and Luka Modric have played virtually every minute of every game are two noteworthy factors.


I'm not too sure why Spurs are as short as 2.0 to win this match, given the form they're in. Or lack of it. This match is important to both these sides for very different reasons so motivation won't be an issue here but I think we need to take Spurs on at this price. A draw looks likely but QPR could win this and give their relegation chances a huge boost so I'm laying Spurs.

Under 2.5 Goals

Opta tell us that Spurs have now gone three matches in a row without scoring away from White Hart Lane. I don't think that's going to change all of a sudden and I also don't think that QPR are all of a sudden going to score a hatful either. Yes, they put three past Swansea but that was very much an exception to the rule. Spurs kept clean sheets away at Chelsea and Sunderland over the past month so they're not that defending that badly themselves away from home. This has all the makings of a low-scoring match.

First Goalscorer

Bobby Zamora will be looking to get one over the club who gave him his chance at Premier League level. Some would say that having done that, they never really gave him a chance at all.

Zamora will be desperate to get on the scoresheet against them here and I think he might just do that. Given Spurs are strong favourites, as we've already seen, he's an unusually generous price to score at 3.3.

2 pts Lay Tottenham @ 2.0
3 pts Back under 2.5 goals @ 2.06
1 pt Back Bobby Zamora to score at anytime @ 3.3

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