LeeDixon

Match odds

The stats all say Chelsea have their name on the trophy.

And that they'll win in 90 minutes.

What the stats don't necessarily reflect is that Liverpool go into this match much the fresher team. There was no ball-chasing at the Nou Camp for them last week and Kenny Dalglish rested most of his key players at home to Fulham. You could of course say it was a gamble that went wrong because with all due respect to Martin Jol's side, you don't see Manchester City, Manchester United or Arsenal lose at home to Fulham. I'm sure if Liverpool do win this game that will long be forgotten, though.

The likes of John Terry and Ashley Cole have been playing pretty much non-stop for the past couple of weeks with Branislav Ivanovic suspended in the league and Gary Cahill and David Luiz out injured. At the time of writing both Luiz and Cahill are major doubts for the match. Wembley is a big pitch and the whole experience of playing in an FA Cup final is a draining one, emotionally as much as anything.

I think Chelsea are the better team and the ones carrying the greater momentum, no doubt about that. They deserve to be favourites to win the Cup but fatigue will play a part and they may need more than 90 minutes to prove that. The Blues look a good value lay at 2.5 in the match odds market.

First Goalscorer

Luis Suarez may just have peaked at the right time with this final in mind. A crucial goal in the semi-final against Everton was followed by one of the very best hat-tricks you'll see all season at Carrow Road.

He looks a man in superb form and I've already said the Chelsea defence may be a bit tired. If there's any space behind that back-line to explore he's certainly the guy to do it. And let's face it, if Liverpool are to strike first he really is the most likely man to do so. He looks a good wager at 8.5 to be first goalscorer.

Penalty taken?

And now for something a bit different. There have been just two penalties awarded in Liverpool's last 10 matches and three in Chelsea's last ten. Penalties in FA Cup finals are somewhat rare, too. That's hardly surprising because no-one wants to be the villain that gives away a silly one with the whole world watching.

It's not everyone's sort of price but the 1.4 on there being no penalty in the match looks a big one.

Both teams to score?

It's an incredible statistic and one worth taking note of. Of the last 18 FA Cup finals, both teams have only scored in three of them. Admittedly some of them have looked somewhat one-sided on paper. Manchester United v Millwall (2004), Manchester City v Stoke (2011) and Arsenal v Southampton (2003).

There's no doubting these two teams are more evenly matched than some of those other finals. But the tendency is for a low-scoring affair and 1-0 to either side as well as 0-0 are all strong runners in terms of a correct score. But we can cover all those options by backing 'no' in the "both teams to score?" market and that looks the best bet of the match in light of that initial statistic.

1 pt Lay Chelsea at 2.5
1 pt Back Luis Suarez to be first goalscorer @ 8.5
1 pt Back no penalty taken @ 1.35
3 pts Back "no" in the both teams to score market 2.12

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