This one started off as low as 100/30 with some books and has drfited a long long way out in the market in this seven runner affair at Bath, in the 3.40 Victorian Bounty is bidding to follow up a recent win at Folkestone and defying a 5lb penalty, the useful claimer John Fahy negates 3lb of that and he has experience of riding the horse previously when finishing second on him in a Windsor Claimer.
Normally ridden up with the pace Vicotrian Bounty has been available to trade in eight of his last ten races, the twice he didnt trade was the twice that he was tried in cheekpieces, six furlongs seems to be his ideal distance and with no watering at Bath, good to firm will suit him just fine. Still drifitng and is available on the exchnages at 14 (10/1 at the bookies)at the moment which would leave us needing a lay off price of 8.4 to normal stakes to make a 1.3pt profit, or to make a 1pt profit the lay off price rises to 9.2.
Another one at a huges price which may provide us with a trading opportunity today is Lord Of The Dance in the 4.20 at Yarmoputh, at the moment you can get 18/1 with SJ about this one, he has been in excellent form on the all weather and is bound to come on for his recent outing at Warwick, this time last year he won at Chepstow on good to firm and although his overall form is better on the all weather than the turf all we want him to do today is trade for us, and its the anomaly in the prices that make this opportunity so attractive. Back with the books at 19 and that leaves us a lay off price of price of 11 to give a 1.3 pt win should he trade but lose and 2.4 should he trade and win. For just a 1 pt trade then the lay off price is 12.5
Its always risky taking the prices this early, nothing is guaranteed in life, lets hope the drifter doesnt drift any more.
The great run continues with another two good trades today. Askaud trading down to 3.1 and I Confess trading down to 1.01 and winning the race at an BSP of 6.2. Long may the run continue.
A nice trade yesterday and hopefully we have found another one for today. Its in the nine furlong handicap at Goodwood where I hope we get a trade today. The nine furlong handicap is a furlong further than she has gone before and a 6lb rise in the weights is the highest she has been in the handicap but the way that Askaud performed in her one race this season suggests that the extra distance will suit her.
The winner of that race was Beautrice Aurore who is an Oaks entry and was raised 14lb for that two length victory, they pulled seven lengths clear of the rest that day. Four races in her career so far has seen the filly available to trade on all four occasions. Her last race was her first of the season and her first for the Nicholls team and any improvement should see her perform well again today even though she is giving weight away to some decent colts. Its always a risk taking prices this early in the day but once again I'm not around later so its a risk, hopefully one worth taking.
The 2.35 at Goodwood Askaud backed at 5.7 which means that we need a lay off price in running or pre race of an average of around the 3.4 mark for a stake of £335 to make an all green screen of £130. Or should you prefer to make £100 then the lay off price is 3.75 for a £305 lay off stake. Best price at the books at the moment is 9/2 with Sporting Bet, but a little better around the exchanges. Lets hope our good run continues.
In the 7.30 at Kempton tonight I'm turning to the filly Now What to trade for us. A winner of only one race which was over this distance, but placed a further five times from just ten career starts Now What is a sonsistent and strong travelling filly who has been available to trade in all ten of her races to date, making the pace, off the pace, or racing from midfield all seem to come th same to her and at some stage of her races she has been in a position to make a challenge at some stahe, hence the available trading opportunities. Boyle Sports went 10/1 about her, there is a bit of conflict at the bookies with 9/1 still available in several places but judt 7/1 with VC, but still over 10 on betfair.
Backed at 10/1 (11.0) for £200 means a trade off price in running is needed at an average of around the 6.6 mark is needed to a lay off stake of £335 to give an alll green screen to the value of £130. Or for an all green screen to the value of £100 then a lay off price of 7.2 is needed to a £305 lay off stake.
Money for The Rocker in the 2.2 at Brighton has pushed out Athwaab to over 4 on the exchanges at the moment and that might just be enough to get us a trade. Athwaab ridden by Charles Bishop three times and has traded on all three occasions, winning twice and second the other time, has also been available to trade in nine of her last ten races regardless of the course or surface. The filly is just four years old and clearly still improving, has risen in the weights to a mark of 66 following her win here last time out, she wasnt extended that day and won unchallenged, having won from a mark of 74 in the past then this rise shouldnt pose any problems for her. As I'm typing this the money for Rocker is still coming in, 5.4 into 3.3 so perhaps Athwaab will drift further, sadly time doesnt permit today for me to be around later so it could be chancy taking her price as she is now, anyway the bets price around the exchanges is 4.4, to a stake of £200 this leaves us needing a lay off price of around 2.64 to a stake of £335 to give us an all green screen if matched to the value of £130.
Or, a win stake of £300 and a lay off price of 2.9 to a stake Of £300 to make an all green screen of £100, if matched of course.
As I said I'n not around today so taking these early prices may be chancy, such is life !!
Nothing for today following yesterdays easy trade.
Those asking about twitter, look for Jinxy One is the name, I dont know that much about twitter myself, still finding my way around.
Jinxy1
Date Joined: 24 Oct 07 12 May 11 22:42
I have always said that getting the best price is the most important part of trading. Tomorrow I fancy that Theyskins Glory in the 3.00 at York will take some stopping if fully wound up, whether or not she is full wound up the market will guide closer to the off, Corals went 5/2 early this evening and I took it. Was I right? Have a think.
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Jinxy1
Date Joined: 24 Oct 07 13 May 11 12:20
Brian Meehan in his Betfair column says that she is working fine at home and is ready to go.
A lay off price of 2.1 is needed in running to £335 stakes to give an all green screen of £130.
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Jinxy1
Date Joined: 24 Oct 07 14 May 11 11:28
Theyskins Glory a nice winner for us yesterday foranother easy trade, happy days.
3/3 on the flat today giving 3.9 points profit, but a loser over the fences (unseated). Even though the loser did reach the required prices before the off he then drifted back in the market and the amount of money available to trade at the lower prices was not enough to lay off at my level of stakes, so although some of you will have been matched there was no way I would get matched at that liquidity therefore it must count as a loser. Still another successful day. Our flat record is currently 9/9 to date and a little more than that on twitter as I've put a couple of extra ones up on there.
At Newmarket Linnens Star is a decent price and will have a chance of giving us a trade this evening, didn't set the world alight on his seasonal reappearance at Doncaster finishing 15th of 22 but still managed to trade in the process. The horse has different ways of running, sometimes held up off the pace and sometimes right up there with the leaders, one thing is always common in his performances and that is that he is a strong traveller. Seven races so far in his short career and he has been available to trade in all seven contests. Three runs at Newmarket have seen him finish first, third and fourth and there should be no problems with the going. Backed at 14.5 and 15 we will need a lay off price in running at an average of around the 8.8 mark to give us an all green screen to the value of £130, or lay off at 9.6 to give an all green screen to the value of £100.