Jinxy1

One winning trade and one losing trade today giving us overall figures for May of:

29 trades in all.

4 Unsuccessful trades which cost us 8 points.

25 successful trades which gave us 32.5 points profit.

An overall profit for the month of 24.5 points. Add that to the 101 points made Dec-Mar and its quite a good return. Profits are a little higher for those following on twitter where a couple of extra ones were put up. 

I  thought that trying to make a profit of 1.3 pts per race would have dampened the strike rate somewhat but that's not been the case...so far. Looking at the low prices that selections have dropped to in running shows that I could have been a bit bolder still and aimed for 1.5 pts per race which would have given a bit more. that's maybe something to think about for the future though.

Another that I hope can give us a trade today is a gelding trained by Brian Meehan, since being upped to seven/eight furlongs he has traded four times from four races winning once and placed twice, Elusivity 3.15 Leicester has his winning jockey is back on today and running back a seven furlongs will also suit as he was caught late on in a stronger one mile race at HQ last time out. He may or may not be good enough to see off this field but if he is there or thereabouts at the two furlong pole then his price should drop enough to give us a trade. Backed at 4.9 leaves us needing a lay off price in running of 3.0 for an all green screen to the value of 1.3 pts. Or lay off at 3.2 to green up for 1 pt profit.

Our first hopeful trade today is in a Selling race where the selection finished second to Dubawi Gold in his debut race last year, how their fortunes have differed since that day!!  Sinadinou though did manage to win a seller last time out and I think showed that 7 furlongs and good to firm is the right combination of distance and going for him. He has been available to trade in six of his seven of his races to date and although this is a stronger seller than his win at Catterick I think his riding style will put him in with a shout at the one and a half furlong mark enabling a trade. Backed at 6.6 for 2pts, to lay off in running at 3.95 for 3.35 pts which will give us an all greens screen to the value of 1.3 pts, or lay off at 4.3 to a stake of 2 pts for a 1 pt profit if matched.

Since being switched to the Mick Hammond yard this horse has begun to thrive this seaason, in the first of four runs for his new yard he was given a gentle introduction in an Apprentices race but since then Hong Kong Island has two wins ans a second to his name winning well last time out even when not getting a clear run. Has a penalty to carry for that win but Dale Swift negates 5lb of that with his claim. Backed at 5 which leaves us needing an in running lay off price of around the 3 mark to give us an all green screen to the value of 1.3 pts, or lay off in running at 3.3 for an all green screen to the value of 1 point.

Not great racing today, not in this country anyway but a good card at Leopardstown and  that's where I'll try and get a trade this afternoon. In the Group 3 at 3.25 I'm hoping that the still improving filly Bewitched will continue on the upward curve. A failure at her only previous attempt at this trip doesn't put me off, too much use was made of her that day and she was heavily eased when beaten. She has been available to trade in all of her last ten races, with the tongue tie applied she has won three out of four since then and traded to odds on the other time. Fitness shouldn't be a problem as she won first time out last season. The main problem will be giving lumps of weight away to last seasons good two year olds, however Bewitched is such a strong travelling filly that I'm sure Johnny Murtagh will have her in a position to at least make a challenge around the two furlong marker allowing her price to drop accordingly and give us a decent trade.

Bsports have just pushed her out to 6/1 (7.0). On the exchanges backed at 7.2 leave me needing an in running lay off price of 4.3 to give and all green screen to the value of 1.3 pts, that's with a 2pts back and 3.35 pts lay. For an all green screen to the value of 1 pt would require a 2pts back and 3.05 pts lay stake at a price of 4.7. As BS have just pushed her price out to 6 at 12.14 pm then its feasible that she may drift to well over 7.

Verinco won his race today giving us another trade worth 1.3 pts extending our current sequence of successful trades to 13/13, happy days.

In the last race at Beverely this afternoon I hope that we can get a decent trade out of a horse who has been available to trade in nine of his last ten races, he is in decent form having finiushed second last time out in a stronger race than today's at Edinburgh. Adam Carter gets on well with Verinco who would probably prefer a bit of cut in the fround but has some fair form on good to firm, he's traded down to odds on in his only race on the course and doesnt have too bad a draw for getting in to an early prominent position. Currently 5/1 at Stan James, 6.4 on betfair.

Backed at 6.4 for 2 pts needing a lay off in running at 3.95 to 3.05 pts to give us an all green screen to the value of 1.30 pt.  Or lay off at 4.3 for 3.05 pts for an all green screen to the value of 1 pts.

This is one that I put elsewhere on Saturday and he traded nicely for us that day and I hope he can do so again today.

Wooden King is a speedy front/prominent  runner who has an ideal berth this afternoon to get his head in front right from the start, a winner of four races last season and in good form this time round with a win at Chepstow to his name already, the gelding's prominent style of running has seen him available to trade on fourteen of his last fifteen outings trading to at least half his SP on each occasion and I'm hoping he will do so again today despite competition for the rail position. Available to back with Stan James at 3/1 (4.0) at  at the moment which would leave us needing a lay off price of 2.38 to give us an all green screen to the value of 1.3 points. Staking to the normal 2 pts win and 3.35 pts lay. Or you can lay off at 2.64 for an all green screen to the value of 1 pt, same back stake of 2 pts with a lay off stake of 3.05 pts.

2/2 successful trades yesterday, one winning the race and the other trading as low as 1.5 in running. Both hit the lower required mark in running therefore they each made 1.3 pts profit, 2,6 pts profit for the day.

This is one I put up last night on the horse racing forum,

Jinxy1
25 May 11 22:08 Joined: 24 Oct 07 | Topic/replies: 4,552 | Blogger: Jinxy1's blog
Would much rather be on one of Stoute's others tomorrow night, took some 10/3 with Ladbrokes about Tazahum in the 8.15, thought he looked very good first time up at Sandown last month, more to come I hope.



Backed him again today at 4.9 for an average price of 4.7 leaves me needing a lay off price in running of 2.82 to a stake of 3.35 points for an all green screen to the value of 1.3 pts or he can be layed off at an average of 3.1 to stakes of 3.05 pts for an all green screen to the value of 1 pt.