Jinxy1

A bit of a blip this last few days with three trades going astray, it happens but if you are working from a bank and investing a percentage of it each time then you are still well into profit and will have quite a big bank by now.

19 trades so far this month,

3 losing trades        -                         -6 pts
16 successful trades   - 14 at 1.3 pts profit =  +19.5 pts
.                         1 at 2 pts profit   =  + 2 pts

A total of 15.5 points profit for the month, which is good but given the excellent start to the month I expected a little better. Sadly, you cant win all the time.There was also one other which was successful +1.3 pts but was only placed on twitter.

Some have asked about a breakdown of thos trades that go on to win their races.

18 trades of which 5 won at prices of 6.2, 6.4, 5.7, 6.8, and 4.5 ten of the 19 were placed. I must stress that once the trade has been made then it doesnt matter whether the horse wins or finishes last.

The Royal Ascot Ante Post thread is going well with 2/2 so far with two to come and both currently trading shorter than they were, hopeful.     

In the lucky last tonight the 9.10 at Kempton a horse which is generally held up off the pace can give us a trade. He didnt get a clear run last time out at Windsor and was eased immediately but tonight I'm hoping that Ted Durcan gets a clearer run on Perfect Pastime and at least gets the colt into a position to look like that a challenge is iminenet allowing us to get a trade. Prior to that race he came with a strong run inside the final furlong to win at Goodwood, the extra furlong tonight should not pose a problem as he has two seconds and a fifth from three attempts at six furlongs as a two year old. The current price of 11.0 I think is wrong and is proably down to this bein g his debut on Polytrack. So far all surfaces have come the same to him and the stable have a fair record at the course. Backed at 11.0 leaves us needing an in running lay off price of 6.6 in running for an all green profit of 1.3 pts or a lay off price of 7.2 for a 1 point profit.

Sajjhaa in the next at Royal Ascot is a horse in fine form, her form behind Midday reads very well in the context of this race, the drop back in distance should be of no problem whatsoever and the 11 rated filly should give a very good account of herself today. She has won over the ditsance and won on the ground and I think that she will be there or thereabouts at the business end of the race. Backed at 5.4 needing an in running lay of 3.25 for an all green screen to the value of 1.3 pts.

The French were dissapointed yesterday with the performance of the jockey on Goldikove but I hope the French jockey in the first at Royal ascot redeems their reputation with a sound ride on Havane Smoker, the colt has form in Group comapany in France and has run two excellent races so far this season. New tactics have seen him riddemn closer to the pace and on both occasions he was good enough to mount a strong challenge before being headed closer to home. The drop back to 7f should suit him well as will the going. Available to back with BFred at 9/2 (5.5) leaves an in running lay off price of 3.6 for a one point all green screen.

A mixed day so far with Royal Trooper letting us down, on the plus side however our first Ante Post selection for Royal Ascot (Bridgetown) traded down to 12 before the off for a trade and a 1.3 pt profit and on yesterdays thread (comments) Wooton Basset traded from 28 down to 16.5 also before the off for another 1.3 pt profit.

More pluses in that Zoffany who was beaten when in receipt of 6lbs by our selection in the Golden Jubilee (Bewitched) ran very well behind Frankel which could help our effort to trade with Bewitched (8.8 needed)and Frederick Engels has just won to boost the chances of Shumoosh, who was dropping in price steadily anyway (2.16 needed)

In the 8.00 at Brighton tonight I think that the improving Foxtrot Alpha will trade for us he is in decent form and backed at 9/2 (5.5) looking for a ly off price in running of 3.35 for a 1.3 pt all green screen or a lay off price of 3.65 for a 1 pt all green profit.

Royals Ascot is a wonderful meeting but I'm off to Thirsk to try for a trade this afternoon, in the 12 furlong handicap at 2.50 I think that the returning Royal Trooper is worth giving it a shot. He is a consistent sort over middle distances and although his record is quite neutral following a lay off I think he will go well enough today to give us a trade. Frederick Tylicki has ridden him four times, twice winning and one place along with a 5th place, the distance is fine and the going should be no problem. He was price up at 10/1 this morning (11.0) and I took some 11.5 and 12 here for an average 11.5 leaving an in running lay off price of 6.8 needed for an all green to 1.3 pts for a loss and 1.5 pts for a win, or lay off at 7.6 for a 1 pt profit.
As always its 2 points to win and either 3.35 or 3.05 pts to lay.

Tonight's meeting at Warwick is where we will try to get a trade, the horse we are interested in was on an upward progressive curve last year winning three times, twice for today's jockey (the only twice ridden by him)and she ended the season with a decent second in a Group 3 race. The cobwebs were blown away at Newmarket last tine and I think that the lightly raced Mirror Lake will give a good account of herself this evening. The going has changed to good/soft which is in her favour, winning jockey on board, distance should not be a problem. She may not win tonight but I'm sure that Pat Dobbs will have her in a challenging position near the business end of the race.  Timepiece is the obvious choice in the race and her strength in the market may force Mirror Lake's price out even more bit so far backed at 6.6 looking for a lay of price in running of 3.95 for an all green scree to 1.3 pts or lay off at 4.4 for a 1 pt profit.

I'm looking to get a trade in the very first race today at Salisbury, the rain has changed the going drastically and is riding at good to soft at the moment. Available at 8/1 (9.0) at both VC and SJ, I took some 9.8 about Milnagavie leaving an in running trade off of around the 5.9 mark for a profit of 1.3 points or 6.4 for a one point profit, all green. One race where he did achieve a place was on softened going at Chepstow showing that it shouldnt bother him today racing on this surface. He was placed over the course last time out and coming back in distance I think thet Richard Hughes will have him there or thereabouts at the two furlong pole enabling his price to drop enough to give us a trade this afternoon.

A consistent sort who has yet to win on the turf is where my hopes are tonight at Goodwood in the 7.20 race. I've already traded on this one already, backed it at 12's and have already layed it off here at 8.0 thanks to Hugh Taylor putting it up as a selection of his on the ATR website, its nice when something like that happens. Because of that I wasnt going to put it up on here but the gelding has drifted out to 8.8 and may still be worth a 1 point trade, lots of money lining up against it so he may drift a bit further yet. Seek the Fair Land is still coming down the handicap running off 79 tonight (12lb lower than his AW mark)has never won on turf but is always consistent trading in his last four turf races and nine out of ten all told. Back at 8.8 would leave an in running lay off mark of 5.8 for an all green screen to the vaule of 1 pt, or 5.3 for a profit of 1.3 pts all round.

In the 4.10 at Market rasen I'm hoping that we can get another trade here, the good/firm going suited Karingreason last time and the mare continued her good form of late, she has won once and been second twice in her last three races trading to odds on all three times. Up 6lb for her win but this is a very weak race, the weight may stop her winning but she is a hardy type and never gives up and should hopefully give us a trade. Backed at 4.4 leaves an in running trade of 2.62 needed for an all green screen to the value of 1.3 pts or lay off at 2.9 for a 1 pt profit all round.