At Haydock I fancy that Balcarce Nov will give us a trade this afternoon. The extra furlong was just a little too far last time and once he was beaten Jamie Spencer eased the horse right down, still he managed to trade that day despite finishing tenth of fifteen. Back to a mile today should be more to his liking and I'm hoping he will trade for the ninth time in his last eleven outings. Jamie Spencer again has the ride. Backed at 6.8 needing a lay off price of 4.1 for an all green 1.3 pt screen or lay off at 4.5 for a one point all green screen.
The return to better ground I hope will give us a trade this afternoon in the 3.40 at Yarmouth. Last time out over ground that was soft the filly still put up a reasonable performance and managed to trade in the process. Prior to that performance she won nicely at Yarmouth and the form of that race was well advertised when Albany Rose who finished second that day went on to win three on the bounce. Back at Yarmouth today Bahia Emerald is up in distance by a furlong which shouldn't be a worry on this ground. Darryll Holland who has won twice on her from three starts takes the ride again. Backed at 5.6 leaving an in running lay off price of 3.35 or thereabouts for a profit across an all green screen of 1.3 points or lay off at 3.65 for a 1 pt all green
The Coral Eclipse looks like being a cracking race on Saturday despite the customary small turnout. So You Think or Workforce?
There is no doubt that if this was over twelve furlongs then the current odds available on these two would be reversed, so why is there such a negative about Workforce and such positive vibes behing So You Think? The Australian form is there for all to look at, but unlike their sprinters, our middle class horses are not necessarily behind their Aussie counterparts and the form of the races won in Australia by So You Think are difficult to work out with no direct form connections to go on. The two races won in Irleand were at odds of 2/13 and 1/7 and were hardly difficult races. Windsor Palace was put in as a pace maker both times, why was there a need for this in such easy races?
What we do know about Workforce is that he is a Derby winner, an Arc de Triomphe winner and quite importantly he is a course winner at Sandown. The front runner will make sure that there is a good sensible gallop with Jimmy Fortune being such a good judge of pace, So You Think will sit just off the pace and then Workforce will be delivered with a challenge in the final two furlongs. This SYT's fourth outing of the campaign and despite A O'Briens claims that he wasnt fully wound up for Royal Ascot, the horse looked 100%, Workforce on the other hand is having just his second outing and is sure to improve for it.
At ten furlongs in the Derby and in the Arc Workforce was cruising (at a lesser pace of course) and he was never in danger of losing on his seasonal debut against lesser horses it must be said over that distance, on his other try at 1o furlongs, yes he finished second, but the bit came through his mouth that day early in the race he hung and raced awarkdly that day and did well to finish second.
I'm on Workforce at 3.3 for £200 which maybe was not a good choice as he is still available at 3 at the books and some forecast he may go off bigger. Still 3.3 it is which leaves me looking for a lay off price of 2.02 at £327 for an all green screen to the value of £120.
Two nice trades today, one trading to 3.25 from 14 and the other to 1.25 from 7.6 to add to yesterday's 6/7 successful trades to keep the good run going through June.
I'm hoping that a horse that has traded in all seven of her turf races can do so again today to give us our second trade of the day, Amistress is the horse, she is a consistent filly to date and although she only finished fifth last time out she still managed to trade odds on in running on going that was probably good rather than good to firm. Back on good/firm going today is in her favour and with three time winning rider on board in Catherine Gannon and back down in grade then I think she will run well enough to still be prominent at the business end of the race to get us a trade. Backed at 7.6 needing a lay off price in running of 4.5 for a 1.3 all green screen or lay off at 5 for a 1pt all green profit. Still available to back at SJ at 13/2 (7.5) at the time of posting.
The weather could well play a part in racing at Newcastle today with some rain forecast between now and the end of racing, one horse that will not be worried if the going changes to soft or softer is Arabian Spirit in the Seaton Delaval Handicap. Paul Hanagan has chosen to ride the stables other entry today just as he did at Epson last time out where there was very little to choose between Extraterrestrial and Arabian Spirit, they finished fifth and sixth that day and meet again on the same terms. Although Extraterrestrial finished in front that day it was Arabian Spirit who traded shorter. Arabian Spirit is a strong travelling horse who always gives his running. He is a drifter at the moment and is widely available at 10/1 (from 5/1)with the books or 12.5 on the exchanges, there is the possibility that he may keep on drifting, at these current prices a back of 12.5 needs a lay off price in running of 7.4 for a 1.3 point profit, all green or lay off at 8.2 for a one point all green screen. Those who have the time may well prefer and wait to see of the drift continues.
The drift has indeed continued and a decision had to be made sometime, I've taken 14 which leaves a lay off price in running of price of 8.4 for a 1.3 all green profit or lay off at 9.2 for a 1 point all green profit.
In the next at bath I have a fancy that the two time winner Pick A Little maybe still be low enough in the weights despite another 4lb rise to give us at least another trade this evening. A winner of his last two races at Folkestone and Brighton this improved 3 yr old gets on well with Harry Bemtley who again takes of a useful 5lb, he is dropping back in trip but he has good early speed so I'm thinking he will be there long enough to give us another trade. Backed at 8.6 needing an in running lay off price of 5.2 for a 1.3 all green screen, or lay off at 5.7 for a one point all green screen.
For the second time today I'm delving into maiden company looking for a trade and I fancy that the gelding Novel Dancer is improving with each race, four races so far and at least three of them have been promising, it may not take much to get involved in this maiden race and with a little more improvement then he could eke out a trade for us. Backed at 13 to lay off in running at 7.8 for an all green screen to the value of 1.3 pts.
In the last at Carlisle its worth taking a chance on Doc hay to continue his improved form since joining this yard, this hold up performer has a penalty to overcome but this is not the strongest filed and he may still have more to offer, the good/soft going will be right up his street. Backed at 4.1 to lay off in running at 2.46 for an ll green screen to the value of 1.3 pts or lay off at 2.7 for a one point all green.
The Carlisle Bell is one of the oldest horse races in the country and in the race I'm hoping that the in form Vito Volteraa can give us another trade today, generally likes to run from the front which will no be easy in this big field but i hope he can be up there or thereabouts for long enough to give us a trade. Backed at 32 to lay off at 21 for an all green screen to 1 pt or lay off at 19 for 1.6 all green profit.