A horse that doesnt win very often, is nearly always slow out of the stalls and has just two wins from 52 races and just one win from 21 over this distance hardly inspires confidence, but he is a strong travelling hold up horse and Berbice often flatters to deceive but almost always trades when he is put into the race to make an effort. He has traded in eight of his last ten races and in all of his last eight races over todays distance, running very well over this course and distance most recently finishing second and takes a 1lb drop in the weights which has to make him of interest this afternoon. He has a record at the course of five trades from fice runs. A big drift has seen his price pushed out to 14 leaving an in running lay off price of 8.4 in running needed for an all green scree to the value of 1.3 points or lay off at 9.4 for a 1 point all green profit.
I'm not around today but just to give you an idea of where it all starts from, these are what I would be considering for today to trade on having been up since 5 am, roughly 5 and a half hours work
In the last at Sandown tonight a gelding who has improved no end since being introduced to handicaps and did even better when upped to this sort of distance last time out is May Contain Nuts. This is a slightly stronger raced than he faced last time but he should still go well enough to give us a trade this evening. His first three races are easily forgettable but in his last two races, both handicaps he has traded down to 3 from 60 and to 1.22 from 7.8, the latter performance was over this distance at Yarmouth on going similar to tonights. He may or may not win but we know he will handle the ground and that he will get the distance. Backed at 10 leaving a lay off price in running of around the 6 mark for an all green screen to the value of 1.3 points or lay off at 6.6 for a 1 point all green profit.
In the next at Catterick a horse running in this one with a fine record at the course and has the help of the in form jockey Silvestre De Sousa to help his cause this afternoon is the ten year old gelding Eljaaz, he has been available to trade in eight of his last ten races and in all ten of his last ten races here at Catterick. This 12 furlong Class 6 Claimer looks right up his street, he has traded from higher marks and hopefully will do so again today. The course, going and distance are all fine. Backed at 4.9 leaving an in running lay off price of 2.92 for an all green screen to the value of 1.3 points or lay off at 3.2 for an all green profit of 1 point.
In the next at Beverley is a very open seven furlong handicap and a horse that has a decent record at the course winning twice and placed once from five outings and trading below his SP on the other two starts is Polish World. He didn't quite drop enough to trade last time out over this course and distance but this afternoon he has the plum draw and will waste no effort at all in getting to the front early doors. A decent price at 9 needs an in running lay off price of around an average of 5.4 to give us a 1.3 all round profit or lay off at 6 for a 1 point all green.
A course specialist at Brighton is always worth taking notice of and in the 4.40 today a horse who has traded for us in the past many times is taking his chance again and even carrying a 6lb penalty he must still have be in with a shout of trading for us. Tom Queally rode him for the first time last time out and did the job very nicely. At Brighton Fire King has won three times and traded to below 2.5 on nine occasions. The danger today is that his new mark of 66 is a career high mark so the trade is a chancy one even given his impeccable record at the track. The non runner reduced the prices that I took on this one to 6.06 and 5.88, an average of of 5.9 will do leaving me needing a lay off price in running of 3.55 for an all green screen to the value of 1.3 points or lay off at 3.85 for an all green screen to the value of 1 point.
The 3.50 Flos Las is quite a mediocre Class Six handicap to say the least with not much winning form between them. I'm hoping we can get a trade out of a maiden in the form of the Nikki Evans trained Oak Leaves, a modest performer at best but if you look closely enough you can see that her performances on turf are quite a bit better than her all weather efforts, being able to be traded in nine of her last ten outings on turf including the last twice where she traded odds on both times in similar company, those two races were also her first for a new yard. Up 3lbs for finishing second last time out taking her to a mark of 51 which is manageable for trading purposes as she has traded from a mark 4 lb higher than that. A bit of a drifter but backed at an average of 6.8 leaves me needing an in running lay off price of 4.1 for an all green screen to the value of 1.3 points or lay off in running at 4.5 for an all green profit of 1 point to our normal stakes.
In the last at Ascot I'm trying a trade with Admirable Duchess despite the big drift. The filly is still in good form and has traded in nine of her last ten outings and can go well again tonight, Backed at 8 needing a lay of price of 4.8 to make a 1.3 pt all green screen or lay off at 5.3 for a one point profit.
Two in a short space of time coming up in the 5.30 race and then again at 5.35. In the first, a five furlong handicap at Ascot I'm pinning my fiath in a trade on Addictive Dream, the gelding seems to be equally at home over either five or six furlongs and any going good or better including polytrack. He bolted up at Ripon on his penultimate start and then got squeezed for room last time out at Windsor, he should go well again today. Backed at 5.4 needing an in running lay off price of around the 3.25 mark for an all green screen to the value of 1.3 points or lay off at 3.55 for a one point all green profit.
in the 5.35 at York, another sprint but this time the horse in question is quite a big price. I think that the top weight Another Try may go well enough to get us a trade. He has been raised another 3lb for finishing second in a Class three handicap at Epsom last time out but in response the stable have engaged a 7lb claimer instead of the normal 5lb claimer to offset some of the extra, and is back down into a Class four handicap today. Normally ridden just off the pace which is ideal for this racecourse. The danger is that the new jockey rides him differently. Back at 17.5 leaving an in running trade off price of 10.5 for a 1.3 profit or lay off at 11.5 for a 1 point all green screen.
In the next at York a one mile handicap the most consistant horse in the race is Snow Bay. A very strong travelling type who has been avaialable to trade in his last seven races on these shores and should give another good account here at a big price. The going and distance are fine although this is his first run at the course. Backed at 20 leaving an in running trade price of 12 for a 1.3 all green screen, or lay off at 13 for a one point all green screen.