A big negative says Tanya in the next and the big drift just about makes him of interest for trading purposes in the next at Goodwood. Having raced in higher quality races than this in recent times including a fourth behind Framkel in the St James Palace Stakes last time out (in this country) then I think that Neebras has drifted out far enough in the market to be hopeful of a trade here. The better going will suit him here and I'm sure he will run well enough for us here with the help of Frankie. Neebras, backed at 6.6 to lay off at 4 for a 1.3 all green screen or lay off at 4.3 for a 1 point all green profit.
A lovely days trading with all of them going to plan producing 5 nice trades from 5 selections and all of them trading despite the fact that they were all put up the night before racing which is a long way before the markets are fully formed.
In the first we had a non runner but we also had Swift Ahaath who traded from an early price of 75 all the way down to 5.5 in running, finishing placed at a bf SP of 8.
Next up was Amour Propre which despite drifting before the off traded all the way down to 2.4 for an easy trade.
Pricewise helped us out by tipping Fox Hunt after we had put it up the night before and he traded before the off, happy days.
We put up Polys Mark at 21 and she traded well below the required price down as low as 7.8 for another very easy trade.
Finally we went with Bertiewhittle in the 4.55 advised at 16 and he traded all the way down to 1.6 for a lovely trade whatever price you backed him at.
These really are early thoughts for Goodwood tomorrow.
2.15 Sagramor, best current price 11 would leave 6.6 or 7.4 needed in running.
A progressive type, up 6lb for winning the Brittania and before that the Betfred Bowl, proving he can handle big fields, wasnt stopping either time and may get this longer distance with ease, a trade is a distinct possibility either way. Sift Alhaarth at a huge price may also trade, stall 2 for this front running horse.
2.45 Amour Propre, best current price is 6.4 and would leave either 3.8 or 4.2 needed in running.
Looked to be coming back to his best at York last time out and should come on for the race, eleven career races has seem him available to trade in ten of them, and that's despite not winning a race for more than two years, the negative here though is the draw, drawn 11 is not that brilliant, may drift in price?
3.15 Fox Hunt, best current price 10.0 (9/1 at SJ) which would need a lay off at 6 or 6.6 in running.
As a four year old he is the most progressive in the field and is the one who has the scope to improve more than any other in the race, Mark Johnston has a cracking record in this race and he has the help of SDS again in the saddle, a difficult race to weigh up especially with Fox Hunt up another 2 furlongs but he is in top form and should be up with the pace.
3.45 Its hard to look past the fillies but I'll take a chance with the mare Pollys Mark, best current price 21 leaving a lay of price of 12.5 or 13.5 in running.
Twice a runner at Goodwood and runner up in this race last year she gets on well with Richard Hughes, never worse than 4th when ridden by him from seven rides. She will need to improve on her recent form but is capable of running well enough to trade.
4.55 Bertiewhistle, best current price 16 which would need lay off prices of either 9.6 or 10.5.
This is a much harder Class Two than the one he won at Chester last time out, but he won that race with such authority that their may be more to come from him, versatile regards the going and seven furlongs seems ideal.
In then next at the Glorious Goodwood meeting I'm hoping that we can get a trade out of the improving Ed Dunlop trained Tanfeeth. The three year old colt was quite impressive winning when upped to this distance for the first time at Newmarket winning after rallying in the final furlong and I'm thinking that he should go well enough this afternoon to get us a trade. In his six career races to date he has shortened up in all six and that would have been enough to give us a decent trade in all of them except his debut race over seven furlongs. Up in the weights and up in grade means that he will have to continue his improvement but all we want him to do is trade. Backed at 8 leaving an in running lay off price of 4.8 for a profit on an all green screen of 1.3 points or lay off at 5.3 for a 1 point all green screen.
In the first at Goodwood today, and its a very difficult race to start a day with a twenty one furlong handicap no less and 19 horses go to post. The improving Spirit of Adjisa could take all the beating but I'm taking a chance on one trying this trip for the first time, he has obviously been sent to Jonjo this season for jumping purposes but the fact that Jonjo is persevering with him on the flat for the time being says that he may still have something to give in this sphere. Third last time in a race where the winner and the fourth have gone on to win again must give him a chance of getting us a trade in this competitive event this afternoon. Backed at 18 leaving an in running lay off price of 10.5 for a 1.3 all green screen or lay off at 12 for a one point all green.
I thought that the non runner would ruin the price on this one but having shortened up after the withdrawal of Green Warrior he has since drifted back out enough to consider him for a trade. I'm going for a consistant type of horse at Carlisle this afternoon in the 2.25 race. This horse has managed to trade in nine of his last ten races, even when running from out of the handicap he still traded in a Class Three race. The conditions will suit him today and I think that Rylee Mooch will run well enough to be there at the furlong pole and drop in price enough to get us a trade. Backed at 4.8 leaving an in running trade off price of around the 2.88 mark for an all green profit of 1.3 points or lay off at 3.15 for a 1 point profit on an all green screen.
22 Jul 11 08:58
No time to do a full analysis again today, while that is the situation then I'll post the 'bare bones' as yesterday and one day last week. Of course the 'bare bones' will not have the same strike rate as normal and will make a dent in the monthly figures but so be it, win or lose they will count. Putting them up early when the markets are not fully formed and the weather can alter going is not ideal, but here goes for today.
3.55 Mountain Hiker 14.5 and 8.6 or 9.6, a massive drifter even this early
4.55 Cool In The Shade 14 and 8.4 or 9.2
5.30 Royal Blade 4.2 and 2.5 or 2.76
5.40 Epernay 8.2 and 4.9 or 5.4
6.00 Save The Bees 9 and 5.6 or 6 (currently 15/2 best)
8.30 Thirteen Shivers 5.5 and 3.3 or 3.65 (4/1 at the books now, less on here!)
I'm not around at all today due to work commitments so I'll put my thoughts up again the best I can with there being little or no liquidity in the markets at this time of day. I've been up since around 4.30 and have a arrived at these....
1.30 Interakt 8.0 and 4.8 or 5.3 (13/2 at the books or 7.5)
4.50 Avolini 8.8 and 5.2 or 5.8
6.10 Volcanic Dust 4.1 and 2.46 or 2.7
6.50 Steel City Boy 8.2 and 4.9 or 5.4
7.55 Wallis 3.95 and 2.38 or 2.62 (better priced at the books right now than on exchanges)
This is one that was tweeted earlier this evening. In the lucky last at Sandown I'm hoping that a consistent type can give us a trade tonight. He is a fair hurdler but is also at home on the flat and the fourteen furlongs on softish going tonight could be right up the street of Mohanad. The five year old has traded in each of his last five flat races trading down to odds on four times and to 2.38 the other. Tonight's jockey rode him last time to be second at Goodwood and the horse has twice performed with credit at Sandown. He has traded in this class on the flat and from this mark (taking into consideration the jockeys claim) and he should go well enough to at least get us a trade. Generally ridden just behind the pace I hope he will be in a position to challenge around the three furlong marker. Backed at 9.2 leaves a lay off in running at an average of around 5.5 for an all green screen to the value of 1.3 points or lay off at 6 for an all green profit of one point.
Carrying bottom weight in the next at Lingfield I hope that we can get a trade out of the consistent filly that is Spirit of Grace. Normally ridden from a prominent position the filly has been available to trade in nine of her ten career races so far including tow at this course and a total of five from six on polytrack. She will not have her own way up front this afternoon which is not too much of a worry as she can run from just off the pace if need be. James Doyle is her regular jockey and he again has the ride. The course and distance are fine for her, backed at 10.5 leaving an in running lay off price of around the 6.2 mark for a 1.3 all green screen or lay off at 7 for a 1 point all green screen.