Jinxy1

Thursday Write Up should now be in your in box for all those that were kind enough to sponsor Kerry for the Great North Run. Please mail me by 2.30 should you not have it.

Some ratings for today are below, these are my basic in running ratings from which I narrow it down and turn into real trades as and when.

4.10 Doncaster, International Debut at 15.5 to lay off at 10  or  9.2

4.40 Doncaster,  Prince of Johanne at  11 to lay off at 7.2  or  6.6

8.10 Wolves, The Fiery Cross at 10.5 to lay off at  6.8  or  6.2

8.40 Wolves, Eagle Nebula  at 8  to lay off at  5.3  or  4.8   

Good morning folks, those who kindly sponsored Kerry in the Great North Run, please check your in boxes for todays write up. Please let me know by 1pm if you have not received it, thank you.



Others for consideration for possible trades today taken from my basic in running ratings are as follows,

4.50 at Doncaster, White Frost, currently 7.0 lay off at 4.6 for 1pt all green or 4.2 (for 1.3pts)

6.20 Kempton, Thorpe Bay 6.4 lay off at 4.3 or  3.8

7.50 Kempton, Lutine Charlie, 11.0 lay off at 7.2  or  6.6

2.55 Uttoxeter, The Foxs Decree, 5.0 lay off at 3.3  or  3.0

4.40 Uttoxeter, Mad Moose, 6.0 and lay off at 3.9  or  3.6 (for 1.3 pts profit) 

Morning folks,

Saturdays write up horse was a nice winner and Mondays will be in your in boxes shortly for those people  who have kindly sponsored Kerry for The Great North Run. Let me know by 13.30 please if I've missed anyone out. Its lovely to see so many generous people on the forum and she is close to meeting her target. Good luck today folks whatever you are on.
   

Morning folks,

Saturdays write up horse will be in your in boxes shortly for those who have kindly sponsored Kerry for The Great North Run. Let me know by 10.30 please if I've missed anyone out. Its lovely to see so many generous people on the forum and she is close to meeting her target. Its a funny old thing running for charity these days as some of them almost 'demand' that you hit a certain figure, which seems a bit strange. Good luck today folks.

Morning folks, any good hearted people out there who would kindly support a lady running in the Great North Run in a few weeks time and would be kind enough to sponsor her (any amount at all would be appreciated) Kerry is raising money for the Mental Health Charity known as MIND, any donation no matter how small would be appreciated.

http://www.justgiving.com/KerryAudin

Up to the day of the run I'll put my own ratings up on most days and anyone who is kind enough to sponsor her, if you send me a private message when you have done so and I'll send you my own daily write ups to your message in box. Many thanks.

Those kind enough to have donated please look in your in box for todays write up, if anyone who has donated hasnt got it please mail me.

Please feel free to make a donation of any denomination, message me and I'll send you my write ups to your inbox until the day of the run itself. Many thanks everyone, its for a great cause.

Afternoon folks, any good hearted people out there who would kindly support a lady running in the Great North Run in a few weeks time and would be kind enough to sponsor her (any amount at all would be appreciated) Kerry is raising money for the Mental Health Charity known as MIND, any donation no matter how small would be appreciated.

http://www.justgiving.com/KerryAudin

Up to the day of the run I'll put my own ratings up on most days and anyone who is kind enough to sponsor her, if you send me a private message when you have done so and I'll send you my own daily write ups to your message in box. Many thanks.

Today, in the 3.05 at Redcar I'm hoping that a horse called Nine Before Ten can trade in running for the eleventh consecutive time. The normally front running filly is back down into a grade 5 race having faded late on in a grade 4 last time out, running from a mark of 75 should see the filly stay in front long enough for her price to drop and give us a nice trade. All types of ground come alike to her and both wins have come over this distance. The filly has more than halved in price in all of her races to date in running, today she is currently 13.5 on the exchanges which would need us wanting a lay off price of 8 to make a 1.3 pt all green screen, thats to 2pts win, 3.35 pts lay. Or lay off at 8.8 for a 1pt all green, thats 2pts win and 3.05 pts lay off.

Any other from my ratings will be placed in the comments box below as soon as I have them. 

The next at Bath sees a fairly consistent horse who generally trades without threatening the judge too often with just the one win from fourteen races. However when it comes to trading then its a different matter and the filly Now What can trade once again this afternoon. She has been available to trade in all ten of her last ten races all in this sort of company and off this sort of mark. The going might be a problem from a winning perspective but all we need her to do is trade for us. The distance is no problem and neither is the course with Now What having finished third around here once before. backed at 6.6 leaves us needing an in running trade of 3.95 for a 1.3 all green screen or lay off at 4.3 for a 1 point all green profit.

The July results are in three different sections this month, firstly as they are done normally, then the results are shown using a starting point of the trade from the Betfair SP in two ways.

There were 63 trades in July.

10 were unsuccessful at 2 points each resulting in a loss of   - 20 points

53 were successful making a profit of 1.3 points per selection = + 68.9 points profit.

Profit for the month of July was therefore  +48.9 points

Of the 63 selections 10 won and 30 were placed. Although it doesn't matter whether the horse wins, places or loses once it has traded, the place results are quite decent in that the 30 placed horses would have produced a profit of 14 points to level stakes, at betfair SP.

24 of the selections traded at around evens or less (10 at 1.01) showing that those prepared to use a braver staking strategy could have made even more profits.




For those who think that they missed the best prices, and dont forget some do actually drift above my own early prices, then these results are show in the same way as above but using the Betfair SP as the starting point for the trade.

63 trades.

15 were unsuccessful giving a loss at 2 points each of  -30 points

48 were successful making a profit of 1.3 points each giving a total profit of  + 62.4 points

Resulting in July profits of  +32.4 points.


In the worst circumstances, here are the same trades but using Betfair Sp as the starting point for the trade and just aiming to make 1 point per selection.

63 trades

15 were unsuccessful giving a loss of 2 points each  -30 points

48 were successful at 1 point profit each  = +48 points

Resulting in July profits of + 18 points.

All profits are after commission which is built into the staking plan.

Its not cricket this time but horse racing, its not often I look to trade in a selling handicap race but sometimes there are one or two consistent animals to be found in this type of race and I think that we can get a trade from the Paul Midgely trained Tancred Spirit this afternoon in the 2.45 at Ripon. Although still a maiden the filly has been available to trade in eight of her last ten races, the two she didn't trade in were both at Redcar. There are a couple trying this grade for the first time who may well finish in front of Tancred Spirit but she is speedy enough to still be in with a shout at the furlong pole which should be enough for her price to drop low enough to get us to an all green screen. Backed at 5.4 leaving an in running lay off price of 3.25 for a 1.3 all green screen or lay off at 3.55 for a one point all green screen.

The figures for July will be posted later today.

I'm hoping for another trade at Goodwood this afternoon in the 4.55 race. Tried at five furlongs before being upped to a seven furlongs that looked as though it was just too far for him last time out at Newmarket in a Class 2 nursery, the Mark Johnston trained Es Que Love is back in distance to six furlongs which hopefully will be right up his street this afternoon. Twice behind Frederik Angels this year over five furlongs the Johnston horse normally ridden from the front has traded in all of his races to date. Goodwood is the ideal place for front runners and drawn from stall seven should be no hindrance. Backed at 12 leaving an in running lay off price of 7.2 for a 1.3 point all green screen or lay off at 7.8 for a one point all green.