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The Handicapper
The Handicapper
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Replies: 191
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i had a great day as it turned out ....4 out of five ....talk about a change of luck....
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I was delighted to hear it as was the forum with probably two exceptions.
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I see Summer Star has been raised 9 lbs which is not harsh considering the turn of foot she showed.As a mare with two bumpers won a bit of black type over hurdles could well be the next objective.The mares handicap at Newbury towards the end of March could well be the next target.
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There lies the handicappers weakness,he doesn't want to admit he was wrong so the trick of getting in of a patently wrong mark takes ages to work itself out.
He punishes the horses running on their merits and rewards the plot horses,all this year I have felt the Green and Gold have sailed close to the wind,Alserwood at Fairyhouse being the worst case although Blissful Moment at Naas ran it a close second. The handicapper never seems to take that aspect into his calculations and brings to mind an instance with a handicapper of years back,he was breasted by a trainer because he hadn't given a horse a mark,after a lengthy rant the handicapper replied I will rate him when he tries and only then. |
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It certainly worked for Alderwood all the shenanigans resulted in a Cheltenham win.
We have another one today in Downpatrick sadly only thirteen pound well in,we have the in form Twin Plan running in a handicap chase off 85 that looks a crazy mark now,I think he will be yet another winner although the price is skinny. |
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WD Wildman, also thought it was a "good thing" if it got around.
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Fiery Oscar reverts to chasing today after his improved effort over hurdling(much more difficult to do than going from chasing to hurdling in this context).He has made 9 starts over fences-his best finish being 4th in a handicap at Limerick off 99 in 2010.Although he looks to stay further,his 4 wins have come at the minimum distance,He appears to be thrown in off 89 today today but if you can't jump fences, it doesn't matter how well your in,would be a layer at 6/4 or shorter.
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The fences are easy in Tramore but the ground could be a problem,he is by Oscar so should be alright on good ground and he is a handy enough horse so the idiosyncrancies of the course shouldn't bother him.
I made a rule years back never to back or lay in Tramore but for this fellow I will make an exception but for small stakes only to win. |
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Valid point about easy fences at Tramore(also has form at Downpatrick which is a quirky track ),ground won't be good now which is a positive for him,at least a stone well in on hurdles form.
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Wd,Wildman ...ending your Tramore exclusion.good thread.
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Willies Girl 6.50Kil,runs this evening on a 24lb better mark than her chase rating,she is blinkered so probably has quirks,still her last run wasn,t bad at all in quite a classy field,where she raced wide throughout but travelled well,slight mistake 5 out,she made ground to get into a challenging position until ultimitely weakening and falling at the last.Pick of her other runs this season would be her Leopardstown race(off 93) where she wasn,t beaten far against decent yardsticks.
Knockanarrigan won a race at Market Rasen while he is in good form not too sure that race amounts to much and Irish form previuos is poor,could well be improving however. Dante Anna while beaten a long way has raced against better,hard to find any other worthwhile current form in this fairly poor contest. With 1 win from 29 starts not one to go overboard with,still ought to be thereabouts against this lot and hard to see her out of the places. |
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Best of luck with her Pa Lapsy but she is not for me.
She is by Anshan and they seem to do better in chases,she hasn't shown rapid improvement over fences. Her last hurdle run was in Thurles and she was beaten some distance that day Her second place finish at Tramore is a plus as she seems to be able to handle tight tracks |
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I appreciate your points Wildman,shame to say i,ve very little knowledge of breeding,i really should do something about it.
Nearly all video form with me,looked at her last race a few times,i did like it,accept they went sedate enough due to conditions and 3m6f still she raced wide that day and managed turning in to get into a challenging position against 140 rated chasers. Maybe tis a race to avoid as who knows what the plots are, but if she can replicate her run at Punchestown the 6/1 in this field seemed big to me. Shure we,ll know soon enough. |
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I think Pa Lapsy post of 9.58 is revealing
It is an excellent summation of the race,it correctly points out the weakness of the favourites form ( a massive drifter ) and puts up the 12/1 winner Dante Anna as the danger This baldly putting up this horse will win is tiresome and of little value but putting your thoughts on a race can direct some of the more discerning to a winner. |
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She ran a stinker, twas embarressing. The value of putting your thoughts up is they can be disagreed with(i welcome that), last night and lurcher were two cases with me recently where unfortunatately i was too pigheaded but warned beforehand.
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Ballyfinboy is a chaser back hurdling,he is only seven but appears nearly two stone well il,that should do it.
Killarney 3.10. |
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We have missed a few of these hurled in chasers over the last year most notably the hurled in Champion Hunter Chaser in Cork a fortnight ago.
We have one today in Fairyhouse. Foritsa is two stone well in in the handicap hurdle,trained by a small stable which is a minus but the plus is its not a gambling stable. 4/1 looks a decent price to me. |
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Wildman cop yourself on! Backing a 10 year old who hasnt run this season and hasnt run over hurdles in a long time. Looks thrown in but better bets around.
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Fair points but that's the reason Foritsa is 4/1.
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Borneo, cheers for laying off the political, social and racial dogma this morning. The forum feels all the better for it.
Best of luck with your selection, I never seem to have any luck with this type of selection personally. |
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Everyone's on Soma here.
I'm only backing Foritsa for a win as although he is two stone well in there is a possibility he might not like hurdles,might be a preparatory run also. |
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I would be firmly with WMFB here.
Sometimes these handicap snips reverting from chasing to hurdling are not the great bet they are made out to be, as they are simply far better chasers than hurdlers. There is no evidence that that is the case here. Foritsa is handicapped on 3 hurdle runs. Her last effort in this sphere was when 5th in a Tramore maiden. Her chase debut a couple of weeks later, and numerous subsequent P2P defeats were no improvement on that, suggesting she was no better over fences. She has just simply improved dramatically as a racehorse of late, and there is every possibility she will be the equal of her chase mark over hurdles. Which makes her a cracking bet imo. |
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4s looks lovely price now. No good if he doesn't oblige though!!
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Bigwillystyle stated
" Wildman cop yourself on! Backing a ten year old who hasn't run this season and hasn't run over hurdles in a long time. Looks thrown in but better bets around " Prescient words and worse still there was a better bet around and it was in that race. If I had done my work I'd have seen it but through stupidity missed it. Groody Hill was thrown in even more than my selection,this Troytown chase winner had more than two stone in hand,he availed of a mark 32 pound lower giving him a theoretical 4 pound on Foritsa. Earlier on on this thread I slept for Saoirse Duns win in Naas,soured me so didnt back the beast the next two times he won. |
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Could anyone tell me how to view the handicap update
for 'chasers and hurdlers, such as ROAD TO RICHES and DON COSSACK? Thanks in advance. |
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Road to riches is rated 7lb higher and Don Cossack 4lb after their wins based on Turf Club INHS ratings. Found on "hri-racing.ie".
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Thank a lot pa lapsy, very interesting but I
would not agree with the handicappers assessment, this will be a guide to some for races such as the GOLD CUP. I do have very valid reasons to disagree, just look at R to R form and you will see for yourself. |
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The two standouts are beaten off 145 in a handicap and to say Don Cossack is 10lb inferior is stretching it after a 5L beating off levels in the Drinmore in '13. Still hard for the handicapper to do anything else,last few runs have been in the style of a quickly improving horse,30L to Boston Bob and 50L to First Lieutenant(gold cup form on lines with them two) in Down Royal if taken on face value is something else though obvious the two were undercooked on the day.
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A long way from winning a Galway handicap off 149 to winning a GC. Would never say it cant be done but I would be very wary of the DR form.
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We're you on today wildman
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You nearly have to back when they are two stone well in.
I probably should say nothing but Gallant Oscar was another chaser pitched in in a hurdle race,two stone is huge. I held fire all day because of the trainer involved so was forced to take 2.4 and less but worth the wait. I remember backing a similarly hurled in chaser in this race some years back,Operation Houdini yes its going on that long. I watched Harvey Logan at it in some maiden hurdles,he managed to fool the handicapper got a 102 rating and landed a Naas gamble. The handicapper then had a chance to correct his mistake but because of his laziness didnt,result another gamble landed The handicapper consistently supports those that don't play the game. |
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Hope ya backed it if you thought he was that well inthen
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Yes,just like you did.
I have the same worries as Gary OBrien with those colours. |
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I backed Operation Houdini that day myself WM. I wouldn't call all these types 'hurled in' though. They are handicapped on what they done over hurdles. The key is whether they are just far superior chasers, or have just simply improved as an animal since their hurdling days. Some prove blots...some don't.
OH was an admirable animal with a good group of owners, he recouped the previous nights Breeders Cup losses that day!! Talking about the green and gold silks, Shutthefrontdoor is trading at 3 for a Graduation Chase tomorrow. He wont be let within a furlong of any winner over fences between now and April. Jonjo is the best target trainer in the game. His target here is the GN,....he ain't going to scupper that with victory tomorrow. Lay til your finger gets sore!! |
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I backed him that day also and I do believe I pointed 1 of the owners in the right direction the following day he ran in the triytown after the disappointment of falling told him to have a right cut at the winner of the beginners chase
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Ha, good stuff. Backed him in the Troytown too!
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Hope it wasn't to costly callitasucit
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Ended up backing Mickie at 2s OLC, as couldn't make much of a case for the rest. Shocked STFD won though. Mickie looked to blow up, having travelled like the winner.
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Gallant Oscar made a fool of the handicapper in Navan,his trainer has a history of making a fool of the handicapper.
The handicapper now has a chance to rectify his error but just does what he always does posts the result into his computer and comes out with a new rating. No review of the race,no consideration of ease of victory. A low graðe clerk could do his job. |
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you really have to explain yourself callit. from the strongest possible lay advice to backing an entirely different horse a few hours later. I'm not saying anyone heeded your initial advice but it was a pretty bad call to seem so confident if you were so fickle.
Wildman, if what you allege about the handicapper is true it would be beyond belief i.e. not carefully reviewing this horse after its history. he is obviously very familiar with the connections carry-on from the past (Ruby riding short-odds shoo-ins in handicap hurdles) but Gallant Oscar was handicapped on the basis of a narrow victory ("all out under pressure") at Navan in January and had failed to win a low-grade handicap at Down Royal last Christmas when backed and running for Martin for first time. Bear in mind Martin is the third trainer to handle this horse. He gets 11lbs for his troubles, up to 115, and still 18lbs below his chase mark. I don't really agree with discretionary subjective penalties based on the individuals involved and if there's something fishy going on it has to be a job for the stewards and not allowing them to rely on the handicapper for doling out punishment. Incidentally, the Racing Post handicapper reckon he earned a mark of 114 after Navan in January (OR 104) and has given him 123 after this week's win so, all in all, still a mortgage job when Tony says "Go!" in the next valuable pot he contests. |