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The Handicapper

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Replies: 191
By:
Tolmi
When: 03 Feb 13 14:18
I must admit I thought turning in there was a real chance of getting him beaten.He stuck at it better than I thought he would.He is obviously far straighter than the horse who weakened so tamely behind Roi de Mee.On the face of it he can't get too much of a rise for what was a workmanlike win.He will probably be aimed at the final of the series but the English handicapper is liable to assess him more severely than he is assessed her.
By:
wildmanfromborneo
When: 03 Feb 13 19:47
I am glad you only laid him small Tolmi and I must confess to being worried all the way round as I thought he was never well placed and except for a small period never travelling well but he was two stone well in and that's the handicappers fault.
Tolmi is probably correct when he says he won't get too much of a rise bit if I was handicapper I would clobber him.I would raise him first for the win then for not trying in Navan and finally to correct the wrong hurdle mark.
Some look on it as a horse being well placed which it is but it is hardly fair on the horses just behind him but it is also a reflection on our lazy handicapper who doesn't seem to look at the races just do it by plain ratings.
By:
CheltenhamRoar
When: 03 Feb 13 19:57
Well done wildman,Correct yet again.
By:
Rocketfingers
When: 03 Feb 13 20:01
I have to say he's not one i would have been looking to take on 27 lbs better off is too much imo, crazy how Noel does not make some sort of conservative adjustment giving his recent form over the bigger fences.
By:
Allduckornodinner
When: 03 Feb 13 20:22
I must be an awful race reader not to notice Colbert Station being stopped in Navan because my recollection of the race was him running down to the second last upsides Roi De Mee before the better horse ran away in the end.

I will say that todays winner was lucky to get away with only a four pound rise for that cracking effort in Navan.
By:
wildmanfromborneo
When: 03 Feb 13 20:34
The run in the Navan hurdle was just a preparatory run to get him ready for the Paddy Power chase,They have been playing ducks and drakes with the handicapper with Colbert Station,they landed their gamble today but it would be ironic if this and their preparatory Navan run would cause them to lose the ultimate prize due to inexperience.
By:
Allduckornodinner
When: 03 Feb 13 20:41
There's a difference between a preparatory run and stopping a horse and to use the two interchangeably is ill conceived.
By:
wildmanfromborneo
When: 03 Feb 13 20:54
I never used the word stopped but in my post this morning I said " having a look " and " preparatory run " but accept that saying " not trying " is not accurate.
By:
silvergreaser
When: 03 Feb 13 22:00
Preparing a horse for another race is just a more subtle form of stopping a horse, I'm sure Ted has plans in the future for the one Ruby sat on out the back all the way round, came home virtually the same way Ruby rode him down to the start motionless.
By:
wildmanfromborneo
When: 03 Feb 13 22:10
Has to be Royal Reveille.
I like Ted and the Walsh family,genuinely don`t get why Ruby is so unpopular but for a man who makes a living in broadcasting he does seem to do what he likes with his horses.
By:
Allduckornodinner
When: 03 Feb 13 22:57
I don't think anyone that punted Colbert Station in Navan would have complained with the run they got for their money as he faced an unenviable task against the winner. The horse may not have been at concert pitch but he wasn't "not trying". Major difference between that and, say, Lanturn.
By:
wildmanfromborneo
When: 03 Feb 13 23:07
Agreed as Roi Du Mee was another handicap blot but i did correct the not trying bit.
By:
Tolmi
When: 04 Feb 13 20:42
If Quartetto and Romanesco both win tomorrow I think I'll have to raise the white flag!!
By:
wildmanfromborneo
When: 05 Feb 13 08:54
We have been spoiled by horses being two and three stone well in so not as confident as in the other cases but they are still well in,ten pounds is good but not hurled in,I will back the two of them but for smaller stakes.
By:
silvergreaser
When: 05 Feb 13 15:53
Wildman, I noticed Romanesco was 14lb well in today compared to his chase mark and runs a stinker, I'd be enclined to put that down to the sleeveen trainer involved rather than its revert to the smaller obstacles, won a novice h/cap hurdle at Perth in Sept.

Ran a stinker when fav at Navan before running a blinder to finish r/up to Colbert Station in the Paddy Power at xmas.
I notice the horse holds an entry in a class 3 h/cap chase at Catterick on Monday, whether he takes up the entry I'm not sure?, but it will be interesting to see how he performs if he does?.
By:
p_r_e_m_i_e_r__f_a_n_t_a_s_y
When: 05 Feb 13 15:59
Quartetto was 15lbs lower over hurdles than fences as well today and got beaten a HD, they don't always translate the improvement they have shown over fences back over hurdles hence the 2 different marks
By:
Tolmi
When: 05 Feb 13 16:19
Romanesco was 19lbs well in compared to his chase mark.His run was too bad to be true.I thought it was an unusual purchase by Gigginstown.I would imagine a handicap chase at the festival was the aim hence the entry at Catterick.They would be keen to see what mark he gets over there.I think Fahamore was entered in Musselburgh last Sunday with a similar purpose in mind.
By:
p_r_e_m_i_e_r__f_a_n_t_a_s_y
When: 05 Feb 13 16:27
Romanesco - respiratory tract infection

Quartetto - simply a pig who didn't want to win [that one is my opinion Laugh]
By:
silvergreaser
When: 05 Feb 13 16:28
Could be right tolmi, makes a lot of sense.

Premier, at least Quartetto was very competitive, Elliots could barely raise a gallop, I'm sure those people who took the short odds were blissfully unaware that they were going to be well and truely shafted today.
Not exactly very strong in the market either for a horse so well in.

Oh here we go again this mysterious respiratory infection has surfaced again, only ever seems to effect these hot favs?, was it Mullins Champagne Fever who somehow managed to contact it as well.
By:
mitch leary
When: 05 Feb 13 16:41
theres nothing mysterious about that, it often happens.
you would have to scope beforehand to find out and you cant blame trainers for not doing that as i believe it can make a horses throat quite sore and i suppose if that happens could also bring on an infection.
By:
silvergreaser
When: 05 Feb 13 16:47
I'm sure it happens the odd time mitch, but does seem to have uncanny knack of effecting hot favs?.
I'm sure most horses are scoped before they go racing don't you think?.

Local trainer at local track, not sure who the vet is that is on duty, but most probably a well known local?.

Forgive me for been sceptical, you would want to be pretty naive to take every excuse you hear at face value in the murky fenced off world of Irish horse racing.
By:
wildmanfromborneo
When: 11 Feb 13 08:39
Summer Star is a good example of the laziness of the handicapper,this mare won her two bumpers was then beaten in a third by Glens Melody,she then ran in a hurdle race in Sligo where she was never put into the race,this was followed by a debacle at the start of a Limerick maiden hurdle.
Her next few runs are so bad you would have to question what was going on but because our handicapper does it solely on ratings he believes it and gives her a 98 rating result a return to form and gamble landed.
I didn't back it as I wasn't sure it was a going day but at least Workrider was on.
By:
Tolmi
When: 11 Feb 13 08:52
I don't think there was any gamble landed.I had her earmarked as a possible touch when I saw the entries and was waiting to get any encouragement at all from the market.There was none and she was available for plenty at a double digit price a couple of minutes before the off returning a betfair SP of 11.

The handicapper can only handicap her on what she has achieved over hurdles.It is not in his remit to handicap her on her bumper form.Indeed she had a mark prior to her last maiden hurdle run which was strange as I had thought they would run her in a handicap as soon as she got her mark.
By:
wildmanfromborneo
When: 11 Feb 13 08:59
He could disregard her runs when she was blatantly not trying.
There is a grey area here as I think he has some discretion but I would certainly welcome Stellar Manipulators view and indeed some clarification from yourself Tolmi.
I would say there was a monster corpulent gamble on it with the price of a Maltese Falcon being earned.
By:
Tolmi
When: 11 Feb 13 09:08
If there was a gamble landed where was the money put on?As I said there was plenty available laying it on here at a double digit price which is inconsistent with a gamble being landed.

While I agree with your point about disregarding runs it is the stewards who should be acting if there were blatant non triers.I recall a Tom Costello horses many moons ago who the handicapper would not give a mark to until it had run about 8 times...Possible Precis was its name.Still hacked up when the cash was down.
By:
wildmanfromborneo
When: 11 Feb 13 09:25
If the gamble was Maltese Falcon inspired it would be on course mainly with some off course bookies as well,he is in dispute with this exchange.
By:
Tolmi
When: 11 Feb 13 10:06
There may well have been a gamble but normally the money would filter back here.If it was laid to decent money on course it wouldn't have a betfair SP of 11 imo.
By:
wildmanfromborneo
When: 11 Feb 13 10:34
I take that point would be interested if anyone knows whether she was heavily gambled.
By:
Rocketfingers
When: 11 Feb 13 10:49
Just spoke to an on-course pal of mine and said "summer star was a good winner in our books like the vast majority of bookies there on Saturday", he also said took a handful of bets all for small money. Said "the guy who told you that is bluffing or does not know what they're talking about". I asked him was there early money and he reply was "No".
By:
wildmanfromborneo
When: 11 Feb 13 10:57
Presumably this on course pal is a bookie when he is using phrases like our books but where was he when you failed to mention a single bookie that was operating at the Sligo meeting you pretended to be at.
By:
Rocketfingers
When: 11 Feb 13 11:02
Sorry Wildman i never name drop but he said bluffing or does not know what they are talking about. Now Tolmi said the exact same thing, that there was no gamble on the winner. So are you bluffing?
By:
wildmanfromborneo
When: 11 Feb 13 11:28
There was a gamble alright and I would wager that it was Maltese Falcon inspired.
By:
Rocketfingers
When: 11 Feb 13 11:40
Btw Wildman i might have a horse for you for during the week for Thurles if you're heading.
By:
wildmanfromborneo
When: 11 Feb 13 11:48
I will be there both days if its on but funnily enough that obsessed nocturnal lunatic friend of yours would know if there was a significant gamble on Summer Star as he has some knowledge of betting,if only you could stop his hallucinations.
By:
Tolmi
When: 11 Feb 13 13:16
Just to clarify I did not say there was no gamble but I did say there was no evidence to suggest there was!!And believe me I was watching closely!
By:
STELLAR MANIPULATOR
When: 11 Feb 13 21:06
Tolmi is right when he says that the handicapper can only go on the evidence of the formbook but WMFB is also correct in suggesting that the Handicapper has some discretion on whether to handicap a horse like Summer Star or not and obviously inaction on the part of the Stewards would surely play a factor in that ? The problem with raising Colbert Stations hurdle mark after he improves over fences is that he has got beaten off marks of 114.115 and 119 in handicap hurdles (before his recent win off 119). If he does what WMFB suggests and raises the horse a stone or two over hurdles on the basis of his improved chase form , I would have thought that Ted Walsh would have an open and shut handicap appeal on that reassessment in the absence of the express discretion the BHA Handicappers have to do just that ( and which the Turf Club handicappers dont have ). So it is not laziness on their part , simply an appreciation of what you are allowed to do and what you are not allowed to do. And trainers can and do appeal in these situations as I am led to believe DKW did in relation to Vintage Crop when NOB apparently reassessed his hurdle mark after he improved massively on the flat . ( I think he won too )
By:
wildmanfromborneo
When: 12 Feb 13 11:38
Thanks for the civil reply.
If the handicapper has no discretion then what is his function,any low grade clerk could submit all racing results into a computer and come out with a rating,that is actually what I think the handicapper does.
Horses that are obviously not trying are given a rating that reflects there actual finishing position,he doesn't seem to review the races.
I accept that he doesn't have the same discretion as his counterparts in Britain but he should have,he also never looked for it because that would entail some extra work.
His other great failing is when he gets a chance to rectify a mistake he never does it as he sees it as some kind of slur on his work.

I highlighted the problem of him crucifying horses for trying and feel he is responsible for the uncompetitive nature of maiden hurdles and novice chases.Everyone knows the disaster positions in those races are second and third part of his remit should be to favour the horses that have been running on their merits,he doesn't do that because he doesn't know as he barely seems to watch the races.
By:
workrider
When: 12 Feb 13 11:49
i think rocket had a feeling you were banned for having a go at him....he said his mates in betfair towers ..his words , looked after their better customers ...good to see the poor deluded lad was wrong again....
By:
wildmanfromborneo
When: 12 Feb 13 11:59
You are actually on this thread as it was you tipped up Summer Star and in fairness Tolmi also thought she was well in but was wondering like me whether yesterday was a going day.it was.
By:
wildmanfromborneo
When: 12 Feb 13 12:01
Yesterday should read Saturday
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