He was beat out the gate that day in Gowran. The only horse two horse of any use behind him was Hatrick Harry and he is more a longer term type. A horse called Cinder House was third behind First Lieutenant beaten around the same distance a few years ago. I'd be surprised if you heard of him even though he ran in numerous races afterwards. Notwithstanding any of that you cannot, as the official handicapper, take bumper runs into consideration when forming ratings.

Castle Wings has already run poorly since Listowel. The Real Article is nothing to be afraid of either, his wind is due to go again by now.

wildmuppett u wudnt handicap an egg n spoon race brave inca stopped three times horse never stopped in his life only in ure tiny mind

How do you think he got such a low mark,he certainly bolted in in the handicaps at Fairyhouse and Navan and started a short price in both.

were u punting these days duck

More tedious handicapping aftertiming from wildman. If it's so obvious, tell us about it before the races and your comments might have a bit of weight.

Good thread.

Couple of things.

AFAIK novice chasers in England can no longer go straight into handicaps off their hurdle mark. This was a reaction from the BHA to the decrease in the size of average fields in novice chases.  It only came in on a trial basis this year.

The english handicapper used to take hurdle marks at face value as well. It changed in 2006/2007 when Taranis and Star de  Mohaison both exploited significantly lower marks over hurdles.

Anyone want to try handicap Flemenstar over hurdles?

It's a wonder Redbait didn't chime in with his customary new low for the forum line
Two of the best posters on here are Distant View and Royal Academy,they both created great analytical threads that yielded loads of winners but they left some work for the punters to do,these are the threads I like they present you with the facts plus some views but leave the last call to the reader.To a certain extent I have tried to do the same here and there is one that qualifies running tomorrow Roi  Du Mae and despite the excellent contribution of Tolmi one to back.
Keen Leader has a lot to answer for because of his stunning success in his threads where he not alone tells you what will win he writes out the dockets for them an air of lethargy has descended on the forum,I notice he was at it again today and again correct.

wildmanfromborneo







05 Dec 12 23:29
Joined:


30 Nov 10
| Topic/replies: 8,499 | Blogger: wildmanfromborneo's blog



The Irish handicapper has the same discretion but he just never uses it.

This thread is titled "The handicapper" and it clearly goes to show how little some punters know about handicapping....

Would there be any chance you could switch your fascination to misslimerick85,ye look like a match made in heaven and you could finally rid yourself of the Dark Rosaleen demons.

has charles byrnes been in touch yet after ur mallicious allegations ?

WMFB , some simple facts for you :
1. As a general rule you would want to be rated at least 100 to be considered in any way capable of being competitive in an average maiden hurdle so a horse rated 88 should not be in the frame at the business end of any maiden hurdle.
2 Whatever about a horse who needs to run 3 times to get handicapped running in a maiden hurdle , a trainer who has a horse rated 88 already needs his head examined running in a maiden hurdle as he is liable to be raised if he runs half decent but out of the frame and a lot if he wins or is placed.
3. If the trainer of Dante Anna thought that she would improve for going 3m for the first time , she should be running in a handicap over that distance and not a maiden hurdle
4 It is not lazy or unfair for the Handicapper to up her a stone for winning a maiden hurdle - he has little choice in the matter given the calibre of the horses she is beating with the only two horses with official ratings ( 114 and 109 respectively ) are well beaten by clear daylight in fifth and tenth place respectively.
5 Part and parcel of being a good trainer is placing your horses to good effect and getting them well handicapped as a consequence, But if you choose to run a horse in a totally inappropriate race , you pay the penalty and it is entirely your fault as you have forced the handicapper's hand unnecessarily. The Handicapper is an easy scapegoat but sometimes people have to take responsibility for their own mistakes. If Dante Anna was good enough to win a maiden hurdle , how many handicaps has she left behind off her old 88 mark ?

i much prefer the way the uk jump handicappers mark their horses than the irish jumps counterparts( o brien et al).

the uk lads, work to an old system that the doyen of jumps handicappers mordaunt developed until he retired at the turn of the century. i remember him telling me, that he was prepared in particular to be lenient on horses out of form, as he would prefer to give them an opportunity to be competitive by over time dropping them to what would be deemed a winnable mark, rather than sickening them by leaving them on an inflated mark. check out any routine uk handicap chase a week after the race and leaving aside perhaps horses on seasonal reappearances and previous winners, most horses in that race will be movers, most downwards.

in ireland, once you post a half decent run, the handicapper pegs you to that for yonks, and movement if anything for poor runs is on a miniscule scale. suggesting to me that either the assessor is steadfast in his optimum view of the horse, or a definite angle, that he believes horses were not running on their merits.

have a look at the mcmanus horse, arbor supreme. now in the uk with jonjo,reappeared 13th october, racing off 140. ran like a drain that day and 3 more times in october and november. the uk handicapper drops him from 140-110, 30lbs, the nag then surfaces in the exeter marathon and wins. you can argue about the merits of dropping the horse steeply, at least the uk handicapper had the balls to drop one 30lbs. if arbor had remained in ireland, he would not drop 30lbs over 4 years, as we do not trust.

one can be sympathetic with the irish assessor, as the system of getting handicapped fosters abuse.
let me pluck one horse, regusci, a tony martin horse, 4 runs in maidens, no show, given 92 following hhis last start.
i have no idea whether he has ability or is a dud. he caught my eye when paul townend sailed exceptionally close to the wind at fairyhouse on start 3(you would have thought he would have learned his lesson after mulleady at rosc).
is he a 92 horse, a 72 selling plater or a 120 plus plot, impossible to call. you could in fact say he deserves less than 88. but tony m has played the system and one day in the near future we will find out the tale of this horse.

we can all complain, it is easier to offer solutions....mine is simple....if a horses fails to finish within 15 lengths of a winner of a maiden/novice, or outside of the first 5 in a similar race, the handicapper can give the horse a provisional handicap mark....but the mark cannot be used to run in a handicap....instead set up a sequence of maiden claiming races, as an alternaative route for those seeking entry for handicaps. the trainer can then tag a claiming mark on his horse and any joe soap can claim the horse if he fancys...assuming he put a max claim within notional bands, 0-90s perhaps 10k, 0-100 15k. under this system, a horse like regusci, would have 2 choices within ireland, to continue to run in maidens/novices until he fulfills the 15 length or first 5 criteria, or divert to a maiden claimer and carry the risk of someone nicking a nice horse.

Some thought provoking stuff from KL whose points are, as always, well made . However , while he commends the BHA man for having the balls to drop Arbor Supreme two stone in no time to make him competitive again , it could be argued that policies like that certainly encourage trainers to give their horses a few 'quiet' runs (rather than trying their best to win ) knowing that they will soon be rewarded for such malpractice by the benign handicapper. Indeed , I remember a few years ago on the flat , a similar policy was adopted in England whereby a horse (Tusculum ) who had finished fifth in the English Leger was able to run off a mark of 45 seven runs later ( and 29 months later )and land a touch for one BJ Curley . And the main horseracing forum here to a man were convinced that the Handicapper responsible was in Barney's pocket and should be shown the gate !

If I can offer a view from the non-punting side it is that of the owner: let's say your horse wins a 2yo maiden at a Grade1/2 track in Ireland then your mark will be fairly hefty and its almost inevitable that you won't be winning again until two or three years later when the handicapper finally relents (KP was occasionally guilty of this). This has possibly made you €30,000 poorer. The formbook is littered with these examples and if you possessed such a horse it would be madness not to have a plan before it ever runs.

You might win to sell but, otherwise, surely a handicap mark is the best way to enjoy your luxury spend if you ultimately know its level (and I am assuming < 90). (There's hardly a trainer out there will tell you this in my experience).

Apart from the obvious fact that Irish horses almost always carry higher marks when they run in England (whether this is distrust or a generally higher relative ratings band I am unclear-probably a combination of both), severely or harshly handicapping horses is likely to be a very frustrating experience for small owners and lead them to leave the game in perplexity.

Equally, there are many examples of trainers making a complete hames of the handicapping process and its why choosing the trainer is paramount. Some of the best "handicappers" are small stables or very closely-knit and with most horses in the average-poor category putting a horse in training should be far more than a day out and accepting the present status quo of accepting trainers as somehow being the oracle is madness. In my experience, trainers can compete with the best of politicians for making noise but saying nothing!

15L

Stubby go off and give Always give in a seeing to

coco retires with the blow up , and a nice cup of hot chocolate  ...can you just imagine the guy.....no lets not go there....

Here we go again,tomorrow Colbert Station runs in a Pertemps Qualifier off a hurdle mark 27 pound lower than his chase mark.
His last hurdle race was the Proudstown Handicap hurdle in Navan when he was up against the equally hurled in Roi Du Mee( pointed out on this thread as a good thing) where he was just having a look,it was an obvious preparatory run for the Paddy Power chase,job done there so they are now availing of this ludicrous loophole.I think he will win tomorrow.

Well done wildman,hope you got the early price