Irish Sports
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25 May 12
21:20
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05 Jun 08
I have selected David Wachman, Jessica Harrington and Ger Lyons as trainers of two-year-olds for 2012 with a view to following these horses throughout their racing careers.
In the flat game, generally speaking, pedigree is everything and Wachman will regularly certainly have mouth-watering pedigrees for me to review. Harrington is newer to the flat game and has marginally the best strike-rate of the “Europa League” trainers whilst Ger Lyons is attracting richer owners (Pearl Bloodstock and Noel O’Callaghan) but has to work much harder to produce financially rewarding returns from most of his less expensive purchases.
Obviously reviewing unraced two-year-olds is a lot of guesswork but there are factors such as pedigree history, stallion performance, auction price, trainer statistics and market confidence (or lack thereof) that lends itself to some educated “guesses”.
I will also occasionally wander outside these stable gates to select runners with pedigrees that interest me.
25th May 2012: Curragh 6f EBF fillies maiden
Calissa: 2010 b.f. Danehill Dancer – Jessica Harrington
First foal; dam (2003 Muhtathir) vey useful 5f/6f 2yo winner in France, later 1m1f-1m3f Graded stakes winner in USA (RPR 113)-won over £800,000 and bought for $900,000 in November 2007 by current owner-#1 grass filly in USA in 2008, half-sister to 6f and 1m Listed winner in France Petit Calva (2001 Desert King f) out of sister to high-class 7f-1m2f Group winner Jim And Tonic.
Danehill Dancer is a top-class stallion and was champion sire in 2009. He did slip a little in the rankings in 2011 and a final placing of sixth was his lowest in six years. A higher percentage of his two-year-olds win than any other category.
This is a very interesting first foal for her owner/breeder. Harrington has an excellent 17% strike-rate at the Curragh with her two-year-olds but early indications suggest this horse is drifting overnight but the market is weak and unreliable. The market tomorrow must be the guide. I would be interested in this horse as a future winner.
How Splendid: 2010 b.f. Oasis Dream – David Wachman
How Splendid was bred by Chryss O’Reilly’s Petra Bloodstock Agency.
€150,000 yearling Arqana (M. V. Magnier); third foal; her two half-siblings (2008 Beat Hollow f & 2009 Invincible Spirit c) remain maidens but both have decent placed form. Blue Hollow (’08) had placed form at two (78) over 8f on soft ground in France for her breeder and Big Blue Spirit (’09) - €85,000 yearling – was an excellent second (83) to Nephrite on his only start at two (6f-soft) for Kevin Prendergast.
Dam (2003 by Kingmambo) raced only twice at two (74) in France and is a full-sister to French 1000 Guineas winner (112) Bluemamba (1997 f) (won on very soft ground) and 1998 Twining colt, Blackmail, who won 9 races, mostly over 10f-12f for a variety of trainers. Grandam (by Private Account) was maiden half-sister to Prix Morny winner (6f G1 2yo contest) Orpen (1996 c by Lure ex Bonita Francita) bred by John Magnier’s Katom. Oasis Dream is a fantastic sire who gets plenty of 2yo winners.
With the trainer double-handed one expects Billy Lee to be riding the stable outsider.
Private Alexander: 2010 b.f. Footstepsinthesand – Ger Lyons
Pedigree: €125,000 yearling Arqana Federico Barberini ; ninth foal; half-sister to 1m3f Italian Oaks winner Menhoubah-2001 Dixieland Band filly-for Clive Brittain (also first-time-out 6f winner at 2, RPR 105) and 1m6f-2m AW winner Russian Music-2005 Stravinsky g-(RPR 76)-first ran in a bumper at 4, 2008 Montjeu filly failed to win in 5 starts for Barry Hills; dam stakes-placed 6f winner in USA and half-sister to 1m Listed winner and three other winners, out of half-sister to leading miler Posse.
Dam (1992 Private Account) is owned since at least 2004 by Cork developer Denis O’Flynn’s Carhue Stud. This is first horse trained by Lyons for Noel O’Callaghan.
Obtaining a first-time client in the shape of Noel O’Callaghan (of Alexander Goldrun fame) is typical of how Lyons is climbing the training ladder and the fact that the filly cost €125,000 is a vote in his favour. This was the fourth-highest price achieved at public auction for the sire in 2011.
The sire, an unbeaten Guineas winner (by Giant’s Causeway) has been something of a disappointment so far at stud for Coolmore and has yet to register a Group 1 winner. His fee is now down to €10,000 although of 52 individual 2yo runners in Ireland and UK in 2010 and 2011 23 of them (44%) managed to win.
It would probably be a surprise if she was good enough to win this especially as the Lyons’ horses tend to improve for the run.
Royal Empress: 2010 br.f. Holy Roman Emperor – David Wachman
Royal Empress was bred by Denis Brosnan’s Epona Bloodstock
€50,000 yearling Tatts Ireland BBA; second foal, first foal-a colt by Rock Of Gibraltar (€18,000 yearling) – has yet to race.
Dam (2004 by Forest Wildcat) was a $120,000 yearling purchase at Keeneland and managed a solitary 6f maiden victory in 6 starts (RPR 68) for Mark Johnston. She was subsequently bought by Brosnan for £57,000 at the Tattersalls horse-in-training sale in 2007. She is a half-sister to a 2008 Arch colt who won the Grade 1 Arkansas Derby over 9f in 2011. Royal Empress’s third dam, Pattern Step, won a Hollywood Oaks.
Holy Roman Emperor’s best progeny up to 2011 was Banimpire and he had a big boost recently with the victory of Homecoming Queen in the English Guineas. 37% of his two-year-olds to run have won.
Wachman is enjoying a very good start to the season and Wayne Lordan is booked to ride. The trainer once expressed the opinion that, due to his patient approach with two-year-olds, to win first-time-out they might need to be stakes class. Therefore it is usually significant if there is confidence in his younger debutants.
Statistical footnote: This looks a decent race tomorrow where I notice that Weld’s entry has an entry in the Phoenix Stakes. One expects a Guineas-day maiden to be of high quality but, remarkably, none of the last five winners managed to win on their subsequent three starts. Only the fourth-placed horses have managed to win on their next start in 2011 and 2010 and it took two attempts before she was successful in 2009-this is probably just coincidence but surprisingly poor results all round.
In the flat game, generally speaking, pedigree is everything and Wachman will regularly certainly have mouth-watering pedigrees for me to review. Harrington is newer to the flat game and has marginally the best strike-rate of the “Europa League” trainers whilst Ger Lyons is attracting richer owners (Pearl Bloodstock and Noel O’Callaghan) but has to work much harder to produce financially rewarding returns from most of his less expensive purchases.
Obviously reviewing unraced two-year-olds is a lot of guesswork but there are factors such as pedigree history, stallion performance, auction price, trainer statistics and market confidence (or lack thereof) that lends itself to some educated “guesses”.
I will also occasionally wander outside these stable gates to select runners with pedigrees that interest me.
25th May 2012: Curragh 6f EBF fillies maiden
Calissa: 2010 b.f. Danehill Dancer – Jessica Harrington
First foal; dam (2003 Muhtathir) vey useful 5f/6f 2yo winner in France, later 1m1f-1m3f Graded stakes winner in USA (RPR 113)-won over £800,000 and bought for $900,000 in November 2007 by current owner-#1 grass filly in USA in 2008, half-sister to 6f and 1m Listed winner in France Petit Calva (2001 Desert King f) out of sister to high-class 7f-1m2f Group winner Jim And Tonic.
Danehill Dancer is a top-class stallion and was champion sire in 2009. He did slip a little in the rankings in 2011 and a final placing of sixth was his lowest in six years. A higher percentage of his two-year-olds win than any other category.
This is a very interesting first foal for her owner/breeder. Harrington has an excellent 17% strike-rate at the Curragh with her two-year-olds but early indications suggest this horse is drifting overnight but the market is weak and unreliable. The market tomorrow must be the guide. I would be interested in this horse as a future winner.
How Splendid: 2010 b.f. Oasis Dream – David Wachman
How Splendid was bred by Chryss O’Reilly’s Petra Bloodstock Agency.
€150,000 yearling Arqana (M. V. Magnier); third foal; her two half-siblings (2008 Beat Hollow f & 2009 Invincible Spirit c) remain maidens but both have decent placed form. Blue Hollow (’08) had placed form at two (78) over 8f on soft ground in France for her breeder and Big Blue Spirit (’09) - €85,000 yearling – was an excellent second (83) to Nephrite on his only start at two (6f-soft) for Kevin Prendergast.
Dam (2003 by Kingmambo) raced only twice at two (74) in France and is a full-sister to French 1000 Guineas winner (112) Bluemamba (1997 f) (won on very soft ground) and 1998 Twining colt, Blackmail, who won 9 races, mostly over 10f-12f for a variety of trainers. Grandam (by Private Account) was maiden half-sister to Prix Morny winner (6f G1 2yo contest) Orpen (1996 c by Lure ex Bonita Francita) bred by John Magnier’s Katom. Oasis Dream is a fantastic sire who gets plenty of 2yo winners.
With the trainer double-handed one expects Billy Lee to be riding the stable outsider.
Private Alexander: 2010 b.f. Footstepsinthesand – Ger Lyons
Pedigree: €125,000 yearling Arqana Federico Barberini ; ninth foal; half-sister to 1m3f Italian Oaks winner Menhoubah-2001 Dixieland Band filly-for Clive Brittain (also first-time-out 6f winner at 2, RPR 105) and 1m6f-2m AW winner Russian Music-2005 Stravinsky g-(RPR 76)-first ran in a bumper at 4, 2008 Montjeu filly failed to win in 5 starts for Barry Hills; dam stakes-placed 6f winner in USA and half-sister to 1m Listed winner and three other winners, out of half-sister to leading miler Posse.
Dam (1992 Private Account) is owned since at least 2004 by Cork developer Denis O’Flynn’s Carhue Stud. This is first horse trained by Lyons for Noel O’Callaghan.
Obtaining a first-time client in the shape of Noel O’Callaghan (of Alexander Goldrun fame) is typical of how Lyons is climbing the training ladder and the fact that the filly cost €125,000 is a vote in his favour. This was the fourth-highest price achieved at public auction for the sire in 2011.
The sire, an unbeaten Guineas winner (by Giant’s Causeway) has been something of a disappointment so far at stud for Coolmore and has yet to register a Group 1 winner. His fee is now down to €10,000 although of 52 individual 2yo runners in Ireland and UK in 2010 and 2011 23 of them (44%) managed to win.
It would probably be a surprise if she was good enough to win this especially as the Lyons’ horses tend to improve for the run.
Royal Empress: 2010 br.f. Holy Roman Emperor – David Wachman
Royal Empress was bred by Denis Brosnan’s Epona Bloodstock
€50,000 yearling Tatts Ireland BBA; second foal, first foal-a colt by Rock Of Gibraltar (€18,000 yearling) – has yet to race.
Dam (2004 by Forest Wildcat) was a $120,000 yearling purchase at Keeneland and managed a solitary 6f maiden victory in 6 starts (RPR 68) for Mark Johnston. She was subsequently bought by Brosnan for £57,000 at the Tattersalls horse-in-training sale in 2007. She is a half-sister to a 2008 Arch colt who won the Grade 1 Arkansas Derby over 9f in 2011. Royal Empress’s third dam, Pattern Step, won a Hollywood Oaks.
Holy Roman Emperor’s best progeny up to 2011 was Banimpire and he had a big boost recently with the victory of Homecoming Queen in the English Guineas. 37% of his two-year-olds to run have won.
Wachman is enjoying a very good start to the season and Wayne Lordan is booked to ride. The trainer once expressed the opinion that, due to his patient approach with two-year-olds, to win first-time-out they might need to be stakes class. Therefore it is usually significant if there is confidence in his younger debutants.
Statistical footnote: This looks a decent race tomorrow where I notice that Weld’s entry has an entry in the Phoenix Stakes. One expects a Guineas-day maiden to be of high quality but, remarkably, none of the last five winners managed to win on their subsequent three starts. Only the fourth-placed horses have managed to win on their next start in 2011 and 2010 and it took two attempts before she was successful in 2009-this is probably just coincidence but surprisingly poor results all round.
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great write up..thanks..will follow your thread with interest.
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Before I post my notes on the Harrington and Lyons runners in the Marble Hill I will give some fairly eye-catching statistics and trends from the race over the past 11 years:
* It is the first serious test for Irish two-year-olds but, strangely, rarely attracts runners from across the water-Mick Channon is the exception but more about him later. * 10 of the 11 winners had already won a maiden over 5f or 6f. * 9/11 won last time out * 5/11 had won a Curragh maiden * Aidan O'Brien is 6/11 * Surprisingly it has been a very poor guide to future form and 7 of the 11 winners never won again! 3 more failed to win on there next three starts and only last year's winner, Power, has been the exception. He went right to the top (Coventry & National Stakes) but his RPR coming into the Marble Hill of 99 was some way above previous winners' ratings so he was an exceptional prospect from early on. Two previous winners posted marks of 95 (Marino Marini in 2002 and Drayton in 2006) and although they subsequently won, on third start and next time out respectively, they were nothing special. * Following the horses that placed second and third on their three subsequent starts was also heavily loss-making confirming the generally "poor" quality of the race-something that really surprises me. Three trainers that have targeted the race in the past are worthy of mention: David Wachman: 2 placed horses (from 3 runners in 11 years) in 2009 (first time out at 20/1) and 2011 2nd at 11/4. the sequence of runs afterwards was W 8/11 - L - W 11/4 on a "stop at a winner" basis. Ger Lyons: 2 placed horses from 4 runners (the placed horses were 7/1 & 5/1-the losers 10/1 & 6/1: both fancied horses managed to win with following sequence: L, L, L, W 10/1, L, W 10/1 so Lyons bucks the trend with his fancied runners in that they train on unlike other runners that seem to go backwards. Finally, the killer trend!!! Someone mentioned an another thread that Mick Channon is winnerless at the Curragh for many years and many runners and this is true. He's run 4 horses in the Marble Hill and two were fancied (7/2 - 4th & 3/1 -2nd) and two were rags (both unplaced). Although its a few years since this trend became evident what jumps out in the analysis is the fact that both fancied horses won their next starts: the Woodcote at Epsom at 4/1 and the Windsor Castle at 5/2. There is no Power in this year's race (thankfully) and I am hoping that results fall to encourage some trend-setting in the weeks to come. Infanta Branca is the trend horse today by some margin and 4 of the 6 Ballydoyle winners started at odds against. |
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Tennessee Wildcat: 2010 b.c. Kheleyf – Ger Lyons
€20,000 foal Grove Stud, €19,000 yearling Ger Lyons – first foal I can’t have Tennessee Wildcat today as I think that he has been displaying wayward tendencies in his two runs to date and it’s no surprise to me to see him running in first-time blinkers. Granted he was impressive on his debut at Dundalk (rare enough for Lyons’ horses to win first time out) and an early nomination to the Phoenix Stakes was a clear indication that he was held in high regard. This race has played a significant part for me in choosing early season two-year-olds to follow. He’s out of an In The Wings mare that loved soft ground and she won over 12f for both John Hills and Michael Grassick (who bought her for £36,000 at an “in training” sale). The dam is related to two milers who also seem to have shown a preference for softer going so today’s summer conditions could be against the Wildcat. His second run in a Naas winners’ event (ground: yielding) saw him put in his place by Bolger’s Dawn Approach (who’s heading to Ascot) and I did not like how he performed when he came under pressure two from home. For a horse that had been so impressive on his debut it was curious that he was very weak in the market that day. You will see from my earlier post on the Marble Hill that my preferred result today for Tennessee Wildcat is for him to run well without winning, prove that he can adapt to the blinkers and follow the trainer’s trend of winning with this horse later this season or next on, possibly, softer ground. Liberating: 2010 f Iffraaj – Jessica Harrington E50,000 F (E30,000 vendor Y); 6th foal; Researching this filly last night I knew I missed a winner when she scored on her debut at Cork in April. The reason? She traces back to a mare called Burghclere who is another of the Ballydoyle/Coolmore foundation stones and traces to the likes of Unfuwain, Nashwan and the beautifully-named Wind In Her Hair who was second in an Oaks. The last two generations haven’t been setting the world on fire but it is likely that the inherent class can crop up at any time. She was well-fancied to win on her Cork debut (5f-good) and beat Infanta Branca quite comfortably. Infanta Branca improved significantly for this run and collected a Curragh maiden two weeks later on yielding ground that was probably against her. The third and fourth home in that Cork contest also won their next starts. On the trends the Ballydoyle filly is the clear choice but, in the form book, it is difficult to discount Liberating as a clear threat. Some combination on both fillies might be the option. I don't think the Channon horse will win. The market for the opening maiden is quiet so far so I'm hoping it will be a clues for the future amongst the also-rans. |
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great knowledge in your thread royal..you remind me of a guy i know on olbg..dissects pedigrees like yourself..very interesting thanks again
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2yo 6f fillies maiden (Saturday)
Four runners and all ran with various degrees of promise for the future. Royal Empress: was the money horse and from 13/2 in the morning she started a warm 2/1 favourite. She loomed up to win her race a furlong down but couldn’t put her head in front. A promising run. Private Alexander: I imagine Lyons was delighted with this run as she threatened to win momentarily about a furlong out. She received a bad bump about halfway which she quickly recovered from. Attracted support. How Splendid: Set the pace and led briefly at halfway. Ran as well as could be expected for a Wachman second string. His 2yo’s often improve significantly after an introduction. Calissa: well-beaten but of big interest next time in my view. Made a hames of the start and only picked up when the race was all over. Attracted support. This is not a race that has tended to have any significant impact throughout the season but it does produce subsequent winners and nine of last years “also rans” from fourteen starters collected subsequently-three of them on their next start. Marble Hill Stakes: My rustiness led to the silly comment yesterday that the Channon colt wouldn’t win the 5f stake. Considering I hadn’t even checked his form I was simply carried away with the trend that a prominent showing would lead to the conclusion that this horse now looks a serious contender for Ascot. The fact that his previous horses in this race had “run well” without winning hardly precluded a well-deserved success in the race. Tennessee Wildcat: the fitting of blinkers had some positive effect in that the horse seemed to run without mishap. However, he was well beaten and the trainer now has a job on his hands to get him winning again. His two previous runners that finished out with the washing, De Tiger and Muckle Bahoochie, only ran once or twice for the stable subsequently before, presumably, finding a new home abroad. I think he’s an early scratch from my portfolio. Liberating: she ran well in defeat (fourth) and was ultimately beaten by two colts and a Ballydoyle improver. The family is full of milers and stayers and except for a Xaar half-sister who won over 5f one must presume it’s the influence of her sire, Ifraaj, that has injected the speed. She quickened up well to win at Cork whereas yesterday she was outpaced from the furlong pole. It will be interesting to see where she goes from here. Two horses that previously finished fourth in this race, Holborn and High Award, both won the Woodcote at Epsom on their next starts. Telephone call for Mrs Harrington! |
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Curragh-6f EBF 2yo maiden:
Rockabilly Riot: 2010 b/br.c. Footstepsinthesand – Ger Lyons (S Jones) This is a Sheikh Hamdan family and having sold off one of the more modest fillies in the family (she won over a mile) for just £18,000 in 1997 he promptly bought back one of her Marju progeny a few years later for £210,000. This filly turned out to be Zawariq (who was no good) and she was bought by Gill Ricardson for £20,000 at the end of her racing career. You do really have to wonder about the Arabs sometimes! It’s a reasonable page and the highlights are Huhbubh-a 6f Group 3 winner, Sahool-12f listed winner and Silk Fan who won three times over 7f. Winners have come, literally, at all distances up to 12f. Rockabilly Riot is a second foal and his Khelefy half-brother was no good (Brian Meehan) but as he only cost £6,500 it was probably no great surprise. By comparison, €46,000 for the Footstepsinthesand colt looks plenty of money especially as it was bid after Lyons knew that the half-brother was a beaten docket. He’s made his name buying well and selling well so we must assume he’s a very nice, athletic colt. He’s already had a run and backed into 7/1 (from 10) he was beaten 7L into 5th behind Ascot-bound Cristoforo Colombo at Navan just 7 days ago. For a trainer who can be dismissive of the betting angle to the game there’s always plenty of money around for his fancied runners. I thought he ran quite well and although outpaced over the final two furlongs he stayed on quite resolutely to suggest that the run will bring him on and that a longer trip might be in his favour. It’s a race that had a few eye-catchers and, in two previous runnings, produced future winners. My guess is that the elevation to a grade-one track today will catch him out but I see him as potentially progressive and a likely 2yo winner for Lyons in time. Probably: 2010 b.c. Danehill Dancer – David Wachman (M Tabor) Bred by Michael Lowry £160,000 foal Tattersalls Blandford Bloodstock; fifth foal. This is a familiar pedigree to me as it traces back to that great Coolmore/Barronstown Stud mare, Doff The Derby (1981 by Master Derby), who produced no end of top-class horses in Generous (1991 Derby winner), Imagine (2001 Oaks winner), Strawberry Roan (second in 1997 Irish 1000 Guineas), Osumi Tycoon (big in Japan) and, last but not least, Wedding Bouquet (1987 Kings Lake filly) who was one of the last fillies that Vincent O’Brien trained. Wedding Bouquet won a couple of 7 furlong stakes and retired to stud in 1991. She didn’t set the world on fire as a broodmare with her only notable produce being the 1998 Spectrum mare, Ventura, who won twice over a mile for that well-known hair-stylist Charles O’Brien. Ventura recently returned to her spiritual home in Coolmore when acquired at Tattersalls last November for £900,000 most likely due to the fact that she seems to be a success at stud. Probably’s dam, Wedding Morn (2001 Sadler’s Wells) is also a daughter of Wedding Bouquet but she was useless when racing for Charles O’Brien in 2003 & 2004. Wedding Morn was despatched by O’Brien at the end of her racing career and appears to have joined the stud farm operation of none other than “political-supremo” Michael Lowry at a cost of €80,000. Probably is her fifth foal and Lowry is certainly displaying a strong attachment to Coolmore’s Danehill Dancer as every foal to race so far (three) have all been by the same sire. Only the 2009 progeny, a colt named Canary Wharf, has been any good although the peak of his achievements has been a single victory in a 9f Wolverhampton maiden for Marco Botti having started life in Ballydoyle. The recent branches of the family through Wedding Bouquet are not enhancing the page very much but, on the other hand, it is not at all unusual for the inherent ability within the genes to skip a generation or two. Nonetheless Probably is an interesting runner today for a few reasons. Newberry Hill: 2010 ch.c. Kheleyf – Jessica Harrington (N Carter) Unsold as a foal; €25,000 yearling Goffs-Rathmoyle Exports who appear to own his half-brother; fourth foal; half-brother to winning 2007 Bahamian Bounty filly winner of 5f Beverly maiden for R Hannon (RPR 76) and to a dual-placed Marju gelding, Newberry Hall (90), who ran with some credit last season (second twice at Curragh over 7f on soft ground) for the same owner & trainer as Newberry Hill. The third sibling’s (2008 Aussie Rules f) best run was third in a one-mile Dundalk handicap off 54. The dam, Zonic (2002 Zafonic) was an expensive £110,000 as a yearling thanks to a winning American line and two siblings who were winning sprinters, but failed to live up to expectations finishing her racing career with a best-placed third over 6f for Michael Stoute. She finished her career on the minimum rating of 45 and changed hands as a broodmare prospect for £38,000. She is a half-sister to two Sheikh Albadou fillies (Corndavon & Injaaz) who both won three races over 6f for Michael Bell and John Dunlop. Corndavon has since become a successful broodmare in her own right producing two stakes-winning sprinters. His sire won the Group 3 7f Jersey stakes and has a decent reputation for producing two-year-olds. A horse with definitely some promise based on pedigree. Market Guide: So far, there is little or no interest in any of today’s runners in the market. |
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Ballydoyle beat Bolger with over two lengths back to the third, Probably. A little over 2L covered the 3rd to the 10th finishers so it may be that they are much-of-a-muchness as there was little market interest in them all.
Probably was weak in the market but ran with some promise. Deciding on the merits and strength of the race is now the challenge. Yet again, there was money for a Lyons’ 2yo and Rockabilly Riot and this may also have been the Murtagh factor. He attempted to make all but was easily passed by the winner and second, eventually finishing sixth. Lowering the sights is probably the consequence of this run as there were no apparent excuses. Newberry Hill was friendless but wasn’t beaten too far in eight. The race was first run in 2011 – won by Reply – third in 2012 Irish Guineas. The second horse, Slade Power, went on to win twice but the remainder were strung out. The first four, of ten runners, all won since and the last two horses also collected. |
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(Future) Star Gazing
Marten Julian who knows a thing or two about the game used to write a few pieces for the Racing Post about his approach to the game and one of his winner-finding methods was to check out unraced two-year-olds with big-race entries. Its an approach I adopted years ago myself and it has served me well. The only race of its type at present in Ireland is the Keeneland Phoenix Stakes (6f-Group 1) due to be run at the Curragh on August 12th. This method put me on to La Collina before she ran last year and she did manage to win the big one at 33/1. Another horse that it highlighted to me was Wachman’s Bushranger who was no back number a couple of years ago. The race itself has been virtually monopolised by Aidan O’Brien as he has won seven of the last ten runnings with colts. It’s quite a surprise to find fillies (receiving 3lbs) winning the other three events and they were trained by Prendergast, Bolger and Wachman so you need a good filly to de-throne Ballydoyle! This is not a thread about Aidan O’Brien’s unraced two-year-olds, good as they may be but, rather, a search for winners that have yet to see the track from other yards. Staying with the 22 fillies entered (from an entry of 81) there are presently 14 unraced. I find Kevin Prendergast with no less than 7 of these, Dermot Weld with 3 and single representatives from Mark Johnston, Jeremy Noseda, John Oxx and Ballydoyle. In an effort to be discerning I am deducing that both Weld and Prendergast are using a scatter-gun approach and this is borne out by the large number of unraced colts also entered from both stables. This leaves me with four fillies to go into my horse-tracker namely, Discernable (MJ), More Than Amazing (JN), What Style (Oxx) and Ballydoyle’s Where. As Aidan has just two fillies entered and the winner Infanta Branca is the filly to have raced (and won) I am breaking my own rule by including Where. Mark Johnston has a total of 6 entries and only Discernable has yet to race-three of the others have won and two placed. Jeremy Noseda has no end of unraced colts entered but as More Than Amazing is the only filly I am chancing her. Finally, we all know how conservative John Oxx can be so any entry for an unraced horse from Currabeg must be noted. Turning to the colts the trainers, or should I say owners, with more money than sense that have entered every youngster in their care will be apparent from a brief perusal of the entries. I won’t attempt to second-guess these entries. The list I am left with nonetheless is promising and I am sure will contain a few interesting runners when they see the track. Tommy Stack: Clancy Avenue & Your Pal Tal John Oxx: Abu Nayef & What Style Ger Lyons: Anyone reading my notes (above) will be aware that Rockabilly Riot will have been disappointing the stable but all is not lost. A unraced colt called Scrapper Blackwell-owned by Sean Jones-is nestling amongst the entries at #47-Lyons’ only other entry. Marco Botti: Secret Session Jim Bolger: has six entries but only Trading Leather (by Teofilo) is unraced. Finally, David Wachman has only one entry and this is Cougar Ridge-winner of his only start. Time permitting I’ll do a brief synopsis on pedigrees shortly. |
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Big Race Entry Update:
The website entries I was checking last night had not been updated for the first forfeit stage of the Phoenix Stakes which arrived earlier this week with forfeit being declared for 16 of the original 81 entries leaving a current field of 65. At the same time the early entries for the Curragh’s Group 2 Railway Stakes were published so this gives me an opportunity to compare trainers’ intentions with unraced 2yo’s over both contests. It is interesting that both races are over 6f. Gone from the Phoenix are the two Oxx juveniles What Style and Abu Nayef together with Tommy Stack’s Clancy Avenue so I have deleted them from my list also. There are two horses common to my original list in that Wachman’s Cougar Ridge and Lyons’ unraced colt Scrapper Blackwell now hold entries for both 6f events. I find the Lyons’ entry quite notable as although he is a cheaply-bought son of Zamindar there is a Nell Gwynn winner close up on the page. I await his racecourse appearance with some anticipation. Kevin Prendergast originally entered 11 colts and fillies in the race but 9 of the 15 forfeits bore his custodial name and therefore I think it’s safe to assume that the two remaining colts, Maktoob and Mooqtar, both owned by Sheikh Hamdan, are both progressing well at home. Prendergast has always been a good trainer of 2-year-olds but his total for 2011 was just 8 in total following 20, 31 and 17 for the three previous years. He has yet to hit the juvenile target this year but I would expect Maktoob and Mooqtar to help redress the balance. The two colts are also his only entries for the Railway. I will be following the fortune of all Wachman juveniles as you know but three new unraced colts have been entered for the Railway: Fighter Squadron, Inkerman and Hint Of A Tint. It was unusual, given his phenomenal record with juveniles, that Richard Hannon entered just a single horse for the Phoenix Stakes – the dual scorer Lyric Ace - and he has now the unraced Janoub Nibras in the Railway Stakes. Finally, the entry of Andy Oliver’s Tiger Stripes in the Railway Stakes catches the eye together with the Bolger entry Bunreacht which did not have an original entry for the Group 1 contest. All in all, three horses disappear from my “big race entries” but there are five replacements excluding the Wachman trio. P.S.If any one is looking for additional English-trained horses to follow I would suggest the Charlie Hills' pair Englishman and Funk Soul Brother, man-of-the-moment Mick Channon's Ayaar and Ron Harris's Mrs Brown's Boy. |
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RA...... I think that that Hannon 2yr old has raced,once or twice, think RL Moore rode it once,still a maiden
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Thanks Jay, good to have you on the thread.
He (Janoub Nibras) looks a good maiden after two runs and was entered for the Railway Stakes after his two runs. Form stands up to scrutiny (altho' UK form not my strongest point) as he has been beaten by Marble Hill winner, Cay Verde (and another subsequent winner) on his first start (third) and was just touched off by a Johnston newxomer last week who's also entered for the Curragh Group 2. I see a couple of this "P.S." horses are in over the weekend, I'll try to post later on them. |
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Friday 1st June: Haydock 6.50pm 6f maiden stakes (good)
Ayaar-2010 c Rock Of Gibraltar ex Teide Lady (by Nashwan) M Channon £48,000 purchase by Gill Ricardson at Tatts 2011 fot the Maktoums. Third foal: half –brother to Albany Rose (2008 f Noverre) a useful sprinter-4 wins (OR 89)- for Rae Guest and described as a “good honest filly who likes to please” (probably raced by her owner/breeder) and Teide Peak (2009 Cape Cross c) who cost the Maktoums £100,000 as a foal (supporting their own sire no doubt!) who was 2nd in a maiden last year on his debut-disappointed in two runs after under Mark Johnston’s care. The dam was bought for £9,500 for her current owner and won a 9f maiden (OR 66) for Rae Guest and she in turn is half-sister to 7f Gr 3 (at 2 in GB (Superlative Stakes-Newmarket July) and at 3 in US) winner Hatta Fort (2005 Cape Cross c) for M Channon and Godolphin and 1m-1m5f AW winner Ostentation (2007 Dubawi c) for Mark Johnston out of 1m1f winner (by Barathea). The grandam is related to three winners who scored on their first start as 2-year-olds although the family has been less precocious in recent generations. In the last 10 years Channon ran a horse in 7 of these maidens and his record includes a winner and three placed horses. Horses making their debut have managed just one third from 5 starters suggesting his horses generally tend to need the run. Excluding the winner in 2006 all the other debutants won on their 3rd, 4th or 5th subsequent start suggesting they take their time to win but can be relied upon to do so. Even at this early juncture the Group 2 Railway Stakes entry for Ayaar looks fanciful and may be a “vanity” entry for the owner. He is currently drifting to big odds but the pre-race market would have to be checked for support in which case he could to be backed each-way for very small stakes only. Unless the pedigree is exceptional and/or the trainer has a record of winning debutants I would be reluctant generally to play. |
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Naas 4.10pm Rochestown Stakes (Listed) 6F good-yielding
Cougar Ridge-2012 c Johannesburg ex Wild As Eile (D Wachman) $60,000 Keeneland Sept. 2011; second foal; dam won in USA at 2 and 5, out of useful French 6f 2yo winner Wild Jewel (a grand-daughter of US 9.5f Grade 1 winner Alma North by the great Northern Dancer). Cougar Ridge started a warm favourite when winning his only start at Leopardstown three weeks ago over 6f on good-soft ground (RPR 94). Nothing of significance from the race has since run and the form of the placed horses looks modest. Ger Lyons’ Angela’s Dream (second) was put in her place on her previous start by a Bolger colt that was well beaten in the Marble Hill. Wachman is quoted in today’s Post: “He won well on his debut and he’s come forward since. This is obviously a good deal tougher with Dawn Approach and Mister Marc in the line-up but we like him and him and hopefilly he’ll give a good account.” Cougar Ridge has all the right entries throughout the season. Ger Lyons also runs Tennessee Wildcat (see 26th & 27th May) in this race and he has a tough task on his hands to challenge the principals. “He’s the only one of mine that qualifies for this race and we’ve nothing to lose. We put blinkers on him the last day but things didn’t really go according to plan. Gary wanted to drop him in but he never got to. It’s a hot race but he has plenty of gears.” Jim Bolger’s colt, Dawn Approach, has looked very classy in two outings to date and will attract the serious money today and looks the one. Cougar Ridge will need to improve significantly to trouble him while Tennessee Wildcat may well be sold abroad if he disappoints again. It really is a race of some standard with two English maiden winners competing not to mention the completely unexposed Ballydoyle runner who’s a half-brother to Guineas winner Footstepsinthesand. Naas 4.45pm Fillies Sprint Stakes (Listed) 6F good-yielding Eight of the last nine runnings of this contest were won by the clear favourite (second favourite won in 2004) and if either Harrington’s Liberating of Wachman’s True Verdict win it will be against the trend. Liberating (see 26th & 27th May) is expected to run a better race than when 4th in the Marble Hill: “I think we may have left her a bit short for her Curragh run and I’m expecting a lot better. She’ll be fitter and we’re going to ride her differently too. Given it’s over 6f we’re going to drop her in and see how that goes.” I thought she ran at the Curragh in the style of a sprinter and I will be watching how she runs in hold-up style. The form of the Marble Hill generally isn’t great and so I can’t recommend her today even if she does have the best RP rating. True Verdict-2010 f by Danehill Dancer ex Foolish Act (D Wachman) David Wachman operates from Longfield Stud which, at one time, was Robert Sangster’s main breeding base in Ireland. Sangster’s son, Ben, continues the family tradition of producing high quality horses and has been a client of Wachman’s for some years now. They raced a full-sister to True Verdict back in 2009 (Foolish Ambition) and she threatened to be very good at two as she finished second in the Marble Hill on her debut. She subsequently won a Listowel maiden over 6f and appeared to relish soft ground like so many Danehill Dancer horses. Foolish Ambition failed to train on as a three-year-old. Sangster ran True Verdict through the ring as a yearling but she was bought in for £140,000 and sent to Wachman. Three other half-brothers/sisters (by Fasliyev, King’s Best and Monsun) failed to race or were of no account. Her dam (2000 Sadler’s Wells m) is an unraced sister to useful 1m 2yo winner Faint Heart (listed placed on soft ground over 8f & 10f for Wachman), half-sister to 7f 2yo Gr 3 winner Circle Of Gold (Royal Academy f with P Chappel-Hyam) & 6f 2yo Listed winner Crystal Crossing (dam of Rule Of Law). True Verdict ran second over the course and distance a little over two weeks ago and ran a fine race to be second to stable companion and stable-selected Mironica. Wachman was of the opinion afterwards that True Verdict would handle any ground. Considering she virtually walked out of the stalls one would think there is plenty of improvement to come and as you can see above the family all win at two. Wayne Lordan has chosen to ride the Stack filly which dampens my enthusiasm today. |
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Update:
Rochestown Stakes: For the second time in two starts Cougar Ridge played up at the start and on this occasion refused to load and was withdrawn. I’d imagine he will have a few uncomfortable days in Longfield before he sees a racecourse again. Tennessee Wildcat finished third (beaten over 7L) behind impressive winner Dawn Approach and was outclassed. He sported cheekpieces on this occasion having worn first-time-blinkers at the Curragh. The Rochestown Stakes was traditionally run at Leopardstown and transferred to Cork in 2005. It then was awarded to Naas for the first time last year. Assuming that the race has attracted a similar type of contestant (in spite of the moveable venue) it has a very poor record (many of the front three either failed on their next three starts or never won again) when it’s participants line up future 2yo contests so I wouldn’t be getting excited about today’s also-rans. As I mentioned before, I can see Lyons trying to offload this horse after today. These remarks do not apply to today’s winner who could be exceptional and, just possibly, Naas is attracting a better type of winner as Lilbourne Lad scored last year and then won the Railway Stakes on his next start. Listed Sprint: I watched the fillies sprint with gritted teeth as True Verdict travelled like a dream and must have traded long odds-on when heading the favourite a furlong from home but he was ultimately out-battled by a clever Richard Hughes. This was one of those results where you can’t believe a horse hasn’t won and True Verdict will surely collect before very long provided the target is reasonable. Liberating ran a nice race under restraint. She was thereabouts a furlong down and met with the slightest trouble in running but raced all the way to the line. I liked the run but, unfortunately, the record of third-place finishers subsequently is dreadful. In the last 9 years this race produced winners Damson (Queen Mary), Rumplestiltskin (Moyglare), Youresothrilling (Cherry Hinton), Cuas Ghaire (Albany), Lillie Langtry (Debutante) while Miss Childrey, Brazilian Bride, Radharcnafarraige and Teolane failed to progress. You are likely to find this year’s winner contesting the Albany but it hasn’t been too reliable a guide with many failing to score there. Fillies who were maidens coming into this race and subsequently finished second have generally won provided that they were targeted at maidens so that should be the plan for True Verdict. |
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5.20pm Fairyhouse: 6F EBF Fillies Maiden (Forecast going: good-firm, presumably with rain imminent)
Angela’s Dream-2010 f Chineur (Ger Lyons) Cheap yearling at €15,000 and lots of winners close up. Dam was a winning sprinter (at 2 & 3-rated 82) and is half-sister to a miler (87) and a sprinter (83). Angela’s Dream is related to 5 previous winners, all from 6f-8f, and it is quite educational to see that many of them won on the all-weather. Second on both starts and unlucky in running at Dundalk on debut over 5f. Ran behind the temperamental Cougar Ridge on latest start (good-soft) and will probably enjoy today’s good-firm better. On ratings she has quite a bit to find. I’d like to see her back on the polytrack given her recent family history and she is a very interesting possibility in that sphere. Niall McCullagh, successful in the Listed race for Lyons on Monday, takes the mount and looks the stable-selected. Run okay but don’t win! Calissa-2010 Danehill Dancer f (Jessica Harrington) See 25th & 27th May. I was quite taken with this filly’s first run and 9L 9th of 10 won’t have her in too many notebooks. To my eyes she ran very green and only raced in the last furlong when the race was well over. She’s got a lovely pedigree and I hope she’s not too busy tomorrow as there will be easier opportunities. Downfall Of Paris-2010 f Exceed and Excel (D Wachman) She cost just €30,000 as a yearling (first foal) which seems reasonable for her nice pedigree. The dam, by Halling, won over 7f for Dermot Weld and DOF in turn is a sibling to four winners of 26 races including top stayer Illustrious Blue (won Ascot’s 2m Sagaro Stakes), and two specialist 6f sprinters (By Night Shift and Oasis Dream). Man-of-the-moment Seamie Heffernan rides but she is probably just out for a spin unless the market says otherwise. Fire And Flame-2010 f Henrythenavigator (D Wachman) A $100,000 Keeneland purchase this filly has illustrious siblings in a 9f US Grade 1 winner A P Valentine (second in two legs of triple crown) and Ballydoyle’s Heart Shaped (by Storm Cat) who won the Marble Hill and had the best-possible placed form at the highest level (placed in a Breeders Cup juvenile and 4th in 1,000 Guineas). Typical of the type of filly found looking over the door in Longfield. With Billy Lee booked it suggests tomorrow is not the day. Queen Of The Sand-2010f Footstepsinthesand (Ger Lyons) Second foal; dam unraced half-sister to useful 5f-6f 2yo winner Bodyguard, later prolific winning miler in USA. Dam failed to sell for €1,900 in 2009 and she also produced a 2008 Peintre Celebre filly that never raced. Gary Carroll booked and perhaps there’s a hint in the name for future reference although Lyons will do well to improve the page. Slope-2010 f Acclamation (D Wachman) Cost £70,000 at Doncaster last year; sixth foal; half-sister to 4 winners including 7f (at 2) and 1m winner Markazzi (RPR 98), 5f AW winner Mandy´s Hero (71), 5f 2yo winner Rowayton (87) and 5f (at 2 GB and in Hong Kong) winner Art Sale (95); dam Group-placed 5f-6f winner who is related to some useful sprinters. Slope was beaten 9L into second in a soft-ground Curragh 6f maiden four weeks ago for which she received a rating of 67. The third horse (3L behind) looks a sub-70 colt. The booking of Wayne Lordan suggests he is expected to beat his two stable companions. Summary: I am looking for Angela’s Dream and Calissa to confirm themselves notebook horses in different ways. Better ground will surely suit Slope but the Ballydoyle and Charles O’Brien representatives have better collateral form. If there’s money for Roseraie (some decent entries) she might get Prendergast off the mark with his juveniles. These maidens are usually won by the form horses so I am looking for clues to the future in what is a long term project. In any event, unless you have a strong line on form or pedigree it wouldn't pay to get involved until a clearer picture emerges with my stable. |
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RA SUPERB THREAD AS ALWAYS FROM YOU KEEP UP THE GOOD WORK M8 AND GOOD LUCK
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Race Analysis:
This was a decent contest and the winner, with nice big-race entries, got a nice ride from Chris Hayes to win on the line. She was backed into 14/1 (from 16's) just before the off so you needed to be paying attaention to the market. She should go on from this. For future reference a low draw is a big help with first 2 drawn 1 & 5. Slope: (2nd) well drawn in 5 and intentions were clear-be prominent all the way and see if you can win. Everything went to plan except for the finish when just headed. The RP have Wachman on the "cold list" after 20+ losers and 20+ days but this horse suggests nothing is wrong. Some support. Angela's Dream: (5th) not inconvenienced by her 11 draw but did break badly and had to use up plenty of her early speed to get a position three off the rails and then was shunted back a little by a bullying Manning. I would guess Carroll said to Lyons afterwards that she had a tough race (boxed in and bumped) but did finish off her race. Still of interest after three nice runs. Supported in market. Calissa: (3rd) badly drawn in 12 and rousted along early. She was hard work and still appeared very green but ran on well for pressure (three or four slaps) and this confirmed my good opinion of her first inexperienced start. Friendless. Queen Of The Sand: (9th) fair dues to GML with this private acquisition as she looks okay on the evidence of her first start. Yet again, one of his outsiders attracted some support (33's -20's) and having broke poorly from 7 met some trouble in running but caught my eye finishing well up the straight. As both his horses were supported he obviously gave some encouragement to both connections. Fire And Flame: (12th) broke very badly from good draw and was well behind fancied stable-companion after a furlong. Billy Lee rode the typical quiet race (even though his filly attracted a little support) and she ran on okay under hands and heels. I would expect improvement from this. Downfall Of Paris: (14th) I didn't pick up on the fact that this filly's mother and four winning siblings were all early 2yo's so a run that saw her fading in the straight and being passed by more promising types was a little discouraging. Nonetheless as she wasn't at all fancied I must hold fire to see what he does with her next. A brief word about Ayaar who ran 4th last Friday. History suggests this was a goodish run but it will take a couple of more runs before the penny will drop. He did encounter some bother during the race so I'll be watching closely. |
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Leopardstown 6.05pm 7f EBF maiden (forecast going: good with rain forecast)
Highest Office-2010 c Papal Bull (Ger Lyons) Modest €6,000 yearling purchase; second foal, first foal Cataract (2009 f by Avonbridge) was a €6,500 acquisition and is a modest sprinter (placed twice over 5&6f-RPR 48) for John Weymes in UK; dam (2003 High Yield m) 5f debut winner at 2, also 6f winner at 3 for Richard Hannon-RPR 74, half-sister to a winner in the US, out of 2-3yo winner in US. The dam was sold out of training for just £2,500 carrying the Avonbridge foal. This is the first 7f juvenile event run in Ireland this season and the sire (first runners of 2012 and a few unplaced runners so far) should be an influence for stamina although the dam’s family has speed. You would expect Highest Office to be nearer last than first on interpreting the page. Stable second string and I’ll fall off my perch if there’s money for him. Polished Rock-2010 c Rock Of Gibraltar (Jessica Harrington) This horse is owned by senior steward, Roddy Ryan, so is unlikely to be a blatant non-trier today! He was bought for €22,000 at Goffs and comes from a long line of Moyglare Stud mares. He’s a fourth foal and the three siblings to perform before this have run with some distinction: Walk Beside Me (2006 Theatrical filly) won on her debut (at 3) at Dundalk over 11f (RPR 88) but who’s form trailed off thereafter; Late Day Sun (2008 Montjeu f) won over a mile and 10f (RPR 87) while the only gelding, Encrypted Message (2009 Dansili g) was second recently on his only start at Roscommon (10f-RPR 80). All three were trained by DK Weld for Moyglare. The dam (by Dr Devious) was a US Grade 3 9f winner (stayed 1m3f) and is a half-sister to French 1m3f Listed winner Porticcio and at least three other winners who all won over stout distances and were quite good. It’s a nice family and getting access to a Moyglare line like this with plenty of winners came fairly cheap at just €22,000. DKW must be influencing the stewards-call the police! Two of the siblings didn’t race until three-finished first and second-whilst the third filly managed to win on her second start at two. This looks a likely winner for Harrington over one-mile+ in time. Could be good enough to win at two as the sire does produce two-year-olds and the trainer is in form. Wouldn’t surprise me to see money for him but O’Brien, Weld or Bolger win these races as a matter of course. Rockabilly Riot (Ger Lyons) – see 27th May Looking at Rockabilly Riot’s last run at the Curragh he looked very professional leading from the front and did show some class under Johnny Murtagh. However, at the business end, he was outclassed and he needs to do something today that has proved beyond him so far. Murtgah seems to be deserting him in favour of an unraced Lynam colt (owner won with Roseraie last night). It’s not a great race and if he’s going to win a maiden at a grade one track he'll probably not get such an equitable chance but before I would consider opposing the above-mentioned triumvirate I would like to see more solid achievements in the book even allowing for his fancy entries in the summer. |
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Going to be at least soft to heavy at Leop tonight RA.
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I was looking at past trends punchestown:
run on gd, gd-firm past 8 years, soft-heavy prev two (still won by fancied horses) Top 6 trainers have won last 10 runnings O'Brien 3/10; Bolger 2/10; KP 2/8 plus DKW 1/10, DW 1/6 and Oxx 1/2 O'B, JSB & DKW 0ne runner each tonight (this last happened in '05 and Weld won with 6/4F). Weld has by far poorest record of the three 4 favs have won; longest-priced winner just 6/1 (JSB) Subsequent happenings: 4 of last 6 winners won on their next start 6/4, 4/1, 6/4 & 11/10 following placed horses (2nd & 3rd) on their subsequent starts not recommended-patchy results that just about broke even Lyons has had 5 runners previously- his filly, Petite Cherie, won on her next start in 2006 but the record since has been poor. He did run The Reaper in 2010 and he subsequently won three races but you needed a lot of perseverance. Neck on the block: * perm three runners in exacta (hope weld's unfancied places) * JSB to win as unplaced run for ballydoyle doesn't fit profile. |
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royal..any chance of your opinion on the last?stats, breeding all the usual...ha
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RoyalAcademy i admire your approach to racing,it is the opposite to mine.Paddywhacker hates my approach but i do it by feel which leads to some spectacular failures,i take notes after each meeting but fail to collate them.To me the ground is one of the most important factors in a race and down the years i have noticed some sires are ground dependant,my present two sires to avoid on ground with cut are Footstepsinthesand and Teofilio can you come up with stats that can confirm or deny my theory.
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I had some stats from last year Tony and just needed to update them:
This race has been fairly predictable in 8 runnings: •APO’B: 4/6 (2 favs, 2 2nd favs); Oxx 3/9 1st, jt 4th & 2nd fav) •Charles O’Brien has W,2nd (won h’cap on 5th start 8/1) & 3rd (won h’cap on 6th start at 7/2) from just 3 runners. No runner today. •3/8 favs (all odds-on); 5 bf’s @ 5/4, 9/10, 8/11, 4/5 & 2/1, therefore not a race to take too short a price. •3/8 second favs: 10/3, 13/8 & 3/1 (+37% ROI) •2/8 winners won next time out @ 4/5 & 11/4 •Second horse to be backed if goes off short on next run in a maiden (4 wins from 5 favs ) Trends suggest El Salvador is the one as Oxx horse has run too many times. I wouldn't play at a short price however! (as always) and pedigree-wise Galileo v Nayef looks a mis-match! Perhaps the horse to pay most attention to tonight will be Harrington’s Big Bad Bob gelding, Beyond Berlin. She introduced Sandymount Earl in this race in 2006 and he went on to win three cracking handicaps when he got his mark. You needed to be patient (including a 3yo hurdling career) but he won three at 14/1, 3/1 & 12/1. She also ran a filly named Papadopoli in 2008 who placed three times afterwards (I wouldn’t have quite the same faith in a filly for handicapping) and last year ran It’s Freezing who was 2nd afterwards in a Down Royal maiden It’s Freezing is now with Seamus Fahey whose stable is freezing cold at present (38 losers in 138 days) but he’s more than able to win handicaps with sleepers. I’m very interested in this horse to win somewhere like Tramore in August although he's probably far better than that. Incidentally, he cost Fahey £32,000 at last year’s Tattersalls horses-in-training sale so there’s plenty of hope invested in him. Similarly, Beyond Berlin is by a decent sire, possesses a decent pedigree and is for the shrubbery in the garden with the slow-maturing plants. |
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wildman ran your query through my database:
Footsteps: sample size 1,337 runners (won 153 11.44%) going: good or better 124/1022 runners (12.13%) excluding "good" only i.e. some mention of hard or firm then slight increase to 14% win rate. going: good-soft/yielding or worse 29/315 (9.21%) if you exclude any reference to "good" then winning strike rate falls to 8.47% More marked difference for Teofilo albeit a much smaller sample size (33W/226Ran - 14.6%) good or better: 27/152 17.76% any mention of soft etc: 6/74 8.11% |
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RA, you had mentioned the Lalor breed many times in your NH Bulletin.
A lovely article in the Indo today, in the " In The Stables" column with Liz Lalor. She talks about her recent bad fall, and her recovery which is slowly coming along. She also mentions it was her second bad fall this season. Her family gets a good mention as does the Carigeen breed. Finally she said she is looking forward to being at the point to dance at the Silver Springs tomorrow night where every one lets their hair down but she is under strict orders that a glass of wine will be the extent of her indulgence due to her current state. |
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they're true corinthians soapp-the old amateur brigade these jocks. **** Lalor should win us a few quid next season. If I could only have a sip of wine I'd be staying at home!
I just wish I had more time to devote to NH racing as hardly a day passes from sept-april when winners from my 07/08 season to dec of last year crop up on my tracker-even as it is I find i'm far more interested in my racing when I concentrate on it. I'm trying to find a solution to start it all again next September. |
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Delegate RA,.....
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Newberry Hill (Jessica Harrington) see 27th May
2.20pm Curragh-6f EBF maiden (going now soft) Newberry Hill was friendless but wasn’t beaten too far in eight….was my comment after this colt had debuted at the Curragh in May over 6f (good). The race was won by Ballydoyle’s War Front colt, Lines Of Battle, who is probably Royal Ascot bound. Jim Bolger’s Holy Roman Emperor colt, Leitir Mor, who started favourite and whose pedigree traces back to the 1981 Group 2 6f Lowther Stakes winner Circus Ring was beaten a head into second. The duo finished 2.25L clear of Wachman’s Probably but less that 4L covered the next six home and that included Newberry Hill in eighth. Leitir Mor had previously finished second to Infanta Branca at Cork and the winner improved on her next start in the Marble Hill. RP ratings (87) suggest L Mor didn’t improve much, if at all, from his first run. From an outside draw it was noticeable how Fran Berry was keen to eventually tack over to the stands rail and seemed to give the horse plenty of cover. What he certainly did not do was to give him a hard time and he coasted home without ever being put under any pressure.A curiosity that may in fact be a typographical error is that he received an RPR of 78 which is more than he would be entitled to in a sequential sense (circa 75) and I just don’t know if these ratings occasionally account for perceived ability and the actual result is ignored. (If you are unsure what I’m trying to get at here take a look at the racing post result). Only Ballydoyle’s Count Of Limonade (10th) has run since and he improved for his debut by finishing second over 7f in Fairyhouse during the week. This improvement would have been normal given the source. Jessica Harrington has said that she expects Newberry Hill to win his maiden and he will certainly improve from his tender first run. We’ve seen his stablemate Calissa (third during the week) improve substantially for her first run and I expect the same to happen tomorrow. Harrington and Berry have a fairly serious record when it comes to 2yo’s and Curragh races with 7 winners and 12 places from just 34 runners. Theoretically, Newberry Hill is a 4/5 chance to be placed-if only life were so simple! There are two obvious horses to lead the market in the previously-mentioned Leitir Mor and a Ballydoyle newcomer and because I didn’t get to post this last night I now see that Newberry Hill is the springer in the market and the place odds offered are probably likely to merely reflect previous statistics and not the 2/1 or better I fantasized about. One final thought: all of Harrington’s previous winners at the Curragh either won first-time-out or came into their races with established form; Newberry Hill does not fit this trend and it suggests he needs to run second or third and then win. |
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My Ballydoyle "newcomer" wins today and my hunch that the Bolger favourite was slightly suspect as a non-improver proved to be true. Gale Force Ten had in fact pretty modest Dundalk third under his belt (RPR 75) and he proved good enough to win at 7/2.
Newberry Hill was clearly on a mission today, came in for sustained support and was a strong 11/4 second favourite. He raced more prominently but two furlongs down he wasn't going to win and was a well-beaten fourth. Ordinarily this might suggest he's not much better than this but I failed to research one significant factor in my earlier deliberations and that was the ground conditions for the sire. Kheleyf's win three-times more regularly on going mentioning "firm" than they do with "soft or heavy" so I think we can mark today's performance up a couple of notches and wait in anticipation for the next run on better ground. |
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FYI Royal Academy, Newberry Hill was coltish before the race today.
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Wed. 13th June: Fairyhouse 6.00pm 6f auction maiden (good-yielding currently)
Three runners-all from Glenburnie: Washboard Sam-2010 g Kodiac (Sean Jones/Ger Lyons) Bought by Lyons for €18,000 at Fairyhouse last September; sixth foal, closely related to Danish 6f-9f winner Irish Smile (2005 f by Chevalier) & 2m4f hurdle winner Viaduct Bud for Terence O’Brien, half-brother to Italian 7f winner Mr Kennedy (2004 c by Cape Cross). The dam, Catch A Smile (1999 by Silver Hawk), was unraced (sold unraced by Moyglare at three for €22,000) and is a half-sister to US Grade 3 1m 2yo winner Successful Outlook, out of 6f 2yo winner for Weld & Moyglare. This is a steady Moyglare family-the third dam bred ten winners-but Washboard Sam will need to be decent to be winning on the flat in Ireland. The sire stands in Tally Ho and has a reasonable strike rate from two seasons of runners but all indications point to a quiet run tomorrow for Washboard Sam with the apprentice booked. He’s already been gelded and wears a tongue-tie first time out. Lightnin Hopkins-2010 c Kodiac (Sean Jones/Ger Lyons) Cost Lyons £20,000 guineas at Tatts. October; second foal, first foal is by Diamond Green but never ran in Italy; dam (2004 by Golan) was unraced half-sister to Cork 5f 2yo winner Declan´s Warrior (for D Weld) out of maiden (placed over 5f) half-sister (by Danehill) to May Hill/French Oaks winner Rafha (dam of Invincible Spirit) and smart 1m-1m3f winner Chiang Mai(won 11f Blandford Stakes for Ballydoyle). The page has no shortage of black type but winners from the dam and second dam are hard to find. It is an indication of what was thought of Lightnin Hopkins dam when she went through the ring as a maiden three-year-old for just £3,500 in 2007 so securing 20k for the yearling was quite an achievement. Gary Carroll is booked to ride and with Murtagh on Abbey Vale it’s likely that this is the second string but they often back more than one from the yard. Lyons has yet to train a winner by the stallion Kodiac but the 3yo, That Boy David, has been placed three times from four starts for him-all as a three-year-old. I speculate that the horse must have been showing a lot at home at two for him to invest in two further yearlings by the same sire last year. Kodiac’s best progeny have been early 2yo’s and this is probably a punt to secure a nice sprinter for Hong Kong or similar. Abbey Vale-2010 c Moss Vale (Vincent Gaul/Ger Lyons) Vincent Gaul has been a patron of Lyons since the trainer concentrated on the flat back in 2003. Their first horse, An Tadh, cost just twenty grand and he won 6 races for them including the Group 3 Ballycorus Stakes at Leopardstown-he also won twice at two. Lyons has also trained at least four other horses to win 8 races for him and it seems to be a very successful partnership. Their budget for yearlings seems to be in the €20,000-€60,000 range generally. Abbey Vale, a second foal, looks to be one of their cheaper purchases at £15,000 (Doncaster 2011) and he is a half-brother to an Acclamation filly who was placed twice (RPR 68) over 7f for Marco Botti in 2011. The dam (2003 by In The Wings) was unraced and is a half-sister to very useful middle-distance performers Esyoueffcee (listed winner for Mick Easterby) and Manorson (dual 10f winner for David Arbuthnot-RPR 105) out of 1m winning half-sister to top-class filly All At Sea (Group 1 mile winner/10f G3 winner) so the page looks very good and Abbey Vale, at this juncture, looks well bought allowing for whatever faults he had at the time. Kodiac was a first season sire in 2010 whilst Moss Vale’s runners debuted in 2011. Kodiac would be the more promising stallion of the two which might also account for the modest cost of Abbey Vale although its worth pointing out that their overall strike-rate is similar. Johnny Murtagh has ridden one winner and three placed horses from just 5 2yo’s he has ridden for Lyons at Fairyhouse in the past so it’s a statistic that is hard to ignore. Also, Lyons is not generally known for winning debutants but East Chestnut and Berg Bahn have scored at this track on their debuts (from 14 2yo debutants). |
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That should be a most interesting betting heat tomorrow evening RA, and will be watching..........
I like it when I see a maiden as the closing race on a card,as I feel punters trying to get out have some kinda chance, as against trying to find the winner of a 15 runner handicap, where so many can hold chances. This is very often the case esp. Windsor summer meets and I feel the books have an input in the way these card are made up.... The final race tomorrow night, a maiden, sees the top stables do battle ,(O'Brien,Oxx, Wachman,KP)and one that I will be keeping an eye on,the Reggie Roberts trained Mayameen with J Egan steering will be interesting, 17days since it last ran and egan had it all over the place that time,inside-outside,and though well beaten ran with promise, note it seems to have cost a ton of money at one stage, so might be aiming at handicaps in any event but keep an eye on it |
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Result and analysis:
There was no noticeable market support for any of the Lyons’ trio and the result will have pleased him I imagine. Run in a heavy downpour on ground that was good-yielding the two Kodiac’s ran very well to finish second and third behind another O’Reilly winner. Eddie Lynam’s filly stepped up considerably from her debut run (9L sixth) at Navan in a race won by Cristiforo Colombo. This maiden was regarded as a strong heat at the time and events may prove this to be true. It featured Lyons’ Rockabilly Riot (5th) and Wachman’s Horizon Sky (4th). I will leave it to Justin O’Hanlon’s report to summarise the race: Two of the three Ger Lyons newcomers showed plenty of promise and will certainly progress. Lightnin Hopkins kept on very well from mid-division in the straight and saw out his race very well. He´ll get an extra furlong without any difficulty. The real eyecatcher though was supposed stable third string Washboard Sam as he did everything wrong. He missed the break for starters, then when asked for an effort in the straight he ran very green and lost a lot of momentum by jinking markedly to his left around a furlong out. Being beaten two lengths was a more than fair effortin the circumstances. Both will win races. Abbey Vale was outpaced from halfway and failed to pick up like her two stable companions. |
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14-June Leopardstown: 4.50pm 7f EBF Fillies Maiden (good)
Hard Walnut-2010 f by Cape Cross ex Yaria (Ger Lyons) The Qatari Pearl Bloodstock connections are likely to be repaying the Group One dividend to Lyons for some time and Hard Walnut is another to race in the colours of the Royal Family. She “only” cost £42,000 at Doncaster last year and already her only older sibling, 2008 filly by Hurricane Run, is a dual winner over one mile (RPR 85). She was also placed at two. The dam and grandam, Yaria (2002 by Danehill) and Yara (1997 Sri Pekan) are familiar winning fillies with Yaria winning over 6f & 7f for Kevin Prendergast & Chryss O’Reilly (RPR 97) and Yara was second in the 7f Phoenix Stakes in 1999 for the same connections. There’s plenty of winners on the page over trips of 8f-10f. Yaria was sold for £70,000 in November 2006. Hard Walnut has already had one run when finishing 8L 5th of 12 over 6f at Naas (g-y) in mid-May. The front four finished well clear of Lyons’ filly in 5th and Ballydoyle’s Delight in 6th. Delight has since run 2nd in a Curragh maiden (confirming the usual improvement for a run) and two of the front four have gone on to post better ratings so, all in all, a decent maiden. Tomorrow’s race features a fairly predictable cast from the bigger stables, including Oxx’s first 2yo runner, so it would be a complete guess to suggest that Hard Walnut could be thereabouts. The purpose of this thread is to assemble a book of evidence to enhance punting confidence when I consider most factors are in my favour - if that day ever arrives! The tissue prices have Delight favourite from a few newcomers which adds some mystery to the conundrum as Hard Walnut finished in front of her on her only outing. |
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I can’t get enthused about Rockabilly Riot (Ger Lyons) in the 5.20pm 7F colts maiden. He’s obviously well thought of at home as there has been money for him in his two starts to date and he holds fancy entries in the Phoenix and Champion Stakes. I wrote about him previously on 27th May at the Curragh but I thought he faded tamely enough under Johnny Murtagh when he set out to win from the front. If I was to back him to redeem his reputation somewhat it wouldn’t be at a Grade 1 track but a lesser assignment.
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Yesterday:
Hard Walnut ran a respectable race behind the first 2yo runner (and winner) for Oxx last night. The obvious horse to take from the race was Eddie Lynam's Reglisse who did the decent thing and didn't threaten here more fancied co-owned favourite,Nurpur, until the race was over and there should be a nice race or two to be won with her. I think we can assume that soft ground would be against virtually all the Lyons' runners and this run predicted to me that Hard Walnut will be winning over further in accordance with her sire and pedigree. In fact I could see myself getting a little animated if she found the right trip and opportunity. Rockabilly Riot ran an honest race to be fourth and took a while to settle. He was outclassed by 7L winner Theatre who attracted a small fortune and improved in leaps and bounds from his debut when he was a neck behind Rockabilly Riot. Hard to know where they will go with him now.(The winning performance was another reason to like Newberry Hill's run but he seems to have other things on his mind at present). Today: I'm not too interested in Tennessee Wildcat today (Navan 5.25pm extended 5f) as his last few runs in blinkers and cheekpieces haven't been great. The ground is currently soft with more rain forecast and this is likely to inconvenience him. The defection of Cougar Ridge leaves the door open for the Ballydoyle newcomer but, in any event, Tennessee Wildcat is closely matched on form with Katchy Lady and Versilia Gal with Prendergast's filly holding a slight edge based on Marble Hill running. Lyons has announced that Lightening Pearl has been retired after her return to sprinting last night failed to rejunenate her. The other nugget that I have garnered was his pleasure at how the two Fairyhouse Kodiac's ran as it suggested he has nicer material at home. |
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There was on-course support yet again for Tennessee Wildcat and he looked to be just about doing enough 100 yards from home only to be swamped by three runners close to the line. He looks a sprinter on this showing and would have won over five. Lyons was bullish in the Post this morning and he has an obvious fondness for the horse.
Who are these people who support the Lyons' runners as they leave their dough behind with alarming regularity? As I was researching the coming weekend's runners earlier it struck me that this thread is too slow and ponderous. I find myself noting trends, eyecatchers and other points of interest but there's too much guesswork involved with the lightly-raced juveniles. I am changing tack somewhat and whereas I will keep an eye on the three designated trainers' runners I think for the post to be of more immediate value and hopefully benefit I will revert to what I think I can do best: find a few horses that should be worth following based on my stats, research and instinct. I have managed to "mention" the winner or horses running well on a lot of my previous threads and I will try to see if I can put this knowledge to better use in future. The most recent example is Versilia Gal and Katchy Lady finishing 1-2 for a 40/1 exacta so I'll have to try to be a little cleverer. |
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17-Jun Cork 3.15pm 5f Sprint Stakes (soft-heavy)
Ever since John Murphy’s roan filly, Gossamer Seed (2008 Choisir), won her maiden at Cork over 5f as a 2yo he has always held her in high regard. Even back then he felt this daughter of Choisir needed a step up in trip and she has since won twice over 7f at Sligo as a 3yo and, more recently, the Athasi Stakes at the Curragh. She shows a marked preference for soft ground and was very impressive in the Athasi Stakes. She was some certainty for that Sligo handicap (won by 6L) off a mark of just 80 and is now officially rated 104. She has clearly improved from three to four and her only run since the Athasi was in the 6f Ballyogan Stakes at Leopardstown as recently as Thursday where she ran third to Wachman’s Fire Lily. She looked destined to be one of the backmarkers on the run for home when passed by a number of horses but she then stayed on again impressively to get up for third on the line. I was very impressed with the run. Murphy generally isn’t a trainer I would follow as he has a deplorable strike-rate of just 3.8% for the past five years but he has handled a good filly in the past in the shape of Pout who won a Curragh Group 2 in 2006. Typical of Murphy, he is racing Gossamer Seed just three days after her Leopardstown exertions over a trip that looks too short now. It is actually October 2010 since she last ran over the minimum trip so she is running more in hope than anticipation. It’s hard to see beyond Inxile and Bordlescott in this race tomorrow as they have by some way the best sprinting form in the race. Gossamer Seed is in the 7f Buckingham Palace Handicap on Friday next and this would have been my target with the forecast soft ground. She is also in the 7f Group 3 Brownstown Stakes at Fairyhouse in early July and this fillies and mares only event would also look an attractive option. |
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There was a time that racing publications would carry some fairly dubious advertisements offering racing information as being 100% bombproof. This was in the days of the old Sporting Chronicle Handicap Book when systems were the order of the day and you were offered untold riches for a pony (sterling of course). These unscrupulous latter-day snake oil salesmen preyed on callow youngsters like myself and names like the “Charles Dawson Gold System” and daily winners from “The Cream” always caught your eye.. Well folks, I GOTTA HORSE!!
This information is GUARANTEED 100% successful and if you had followed my advice faithfully for the past four years you would be 1300% ahead on investment and probably contemplating early retirement. Interested? Please send a self addressed special delivery envelope to……. 3.50pm Cork 12 Noblesse Stakes (Group 3) going:heavy This race started life as a 3yo only contest run at Naas in 2003 and became an all-aged stake the following year. It was subsequently transferred to Cork in 2005 and has remained there ever since. The race caught my eye as it features a horse from Weld’s that is likely to be a short-priced favourite but I would be reluctant to be too exuberant about him as he has to defy one very significant trend from all nine runnings of this race: every winner of this race had at least one outing in the current season and most winners had run in some of the decent middle distance contests like the Ballysax, Blue Wind, Gallinule and even the Oaks itself. Of those with runners this year, Weld (2 wins and 3 seconds), Oxx (7 places) and Ballydoyle (1 win and 2 places) dominate and if I have to pick two against the field it would be the Ballydoyle duo Betterbetterbetter (ran in the Oaks) and Soon (second in the Gallinule). 17-Jun Cork 2.40pm 6f 3yo extended handicap (soft-heavy) I thought Red Sea Poll ran a nice ran at the Curragh last weekend over 6f on soft ground. She seems to have been dropped 5lbs for that effort and is now back on a mark of just 54 from which she should be capable of winning. Her best run was second in a 20-runner Naas sprint handicap on soft ground last month so she has shown glimpses of ability. I thought she ran on nicely at the Curragh as she had to go wide to try to mount a challenge and wasn’t beaten too far in sixth. Her low weight should be an advantage in the heavy ground. 14/1 looks pretty generous. Oh yes!, and the horse…………………… If you backed the horse that finished second in today’s Noblesse Stakes over the last four runnings on its next start you would have been rewarded with winners at 9/2, 3/1, 4/5 and 5/1. Sometimes it’s easy. P.S. I don't think for a moment that most of today's phone-scam tipsters are not cut from the same cloth as my old friends in the handicap book. |