Completing my review of the entries for the Phoenix Stakes I have concentrated on the five major stables with multiple entries. My selections are based entirely on pedigrees that give the colts and fillies every chance of succeeding on the track and, at the time of writing, all are unraced.

Dermot Weld (7 entries in total)

Keyboard Melody (Verglas colt ex Wrong Key)

By the now deceased Irish National Stud stallion, Verglas, who was capable of getting Grade 2 performers. Keyboard Melody is a full brother to a Marble Hill winner (5f Listed) and three other winners who were very useful over one mile (only progeny to run). The dam was a useful three-time winning miler who was a full sister to Right Key who won three stakes races over 10f-14f. It’s likely Kevin Prendergast will have been disappointed not to get this colt from Chryss O’Reilly as he has trained all the family for her in the past.

Pirita (Invincible Spirit filly)

Moyglare Stud went shopping at Goffs last autumn and selected this filly to help replenish their prospective broodmare band of the future at a cost of €330,000 which would be about half the going rate for failed bankers and civil servants these days. She is the 8th foal out of a modest maiden Spinning World mare but six of her siblings have all won with the best of them being a French 10f Listed winner (for Royer-Dupre), 5f Newmarket Listed winning sprinter, a one-mile Curragh listed 2yo winner and a Lingfield 7f Group Three scorer. The dam may not have won but she had four siblings who did and it’s a very strong French pedigree. One line on the page that catches my attention is that an unraced half-sister to the dam produced Chabal (by Galileo) who was second in the 2009 National Stakes for Jim Bolger.

Aidan O’Brien (9 entries)

The standout name among Ballydoyle two-year-olds this year for me was Fountain Of Youth named, presumably, after the famous FOY Stakes run at Gulfstream Park every February and recognised as a genuine Kentucky Derby Trial (and usually a prep for the earlier Florida Derby). This race was won by Michael Tabor’s Thunder Gulch back in 1995 and he became Tabor’s Derby winner just a few months later and Thunder Gulch became a high-profile stallion for Coolmore in America who’s best horse was Point Given who won two legs of the Triple Crown in 2001.

Vincent O’Brien and now Coolmore are renowned for trying to pick signature names for their putative champions so it was a major disappointment to see Fountain Of Youth unable to win a five-runner event at Naas just 9 days ago. The horse does have a superb pedigree being by Oasis Dream out of the absolutely brilliant Attraction (she won the top five Group One fillies events run over one mile in 2004 & 2005 for Mark Johnston and the Duke Of Roxburghe) although, as often happens, the dam has not been throwing champions as good as herself (a hard task admittedly!).  Three of her first four foals to race have all have been fillies and if Cushion can manage a winning bracket this season for John Gosden all three will have exceptionally valuable winning brackets for the breeding shed. A 2009 Pivotal colt never got to the track and Fountain Of Youth represents her fifth foal and has been the first colt to race. Coolmore seem to have been involved in her most recent foals and this is probably as a result of foal shares or maybe they bought a half-share in the mare from the “dook”. In any event, the naming of this colt after such a famous race and with fond connotations for Michael Tabor suggests it might be a little early to write off Fountain Of Youth as a contender for top honours.

Sir John Hawkins (colt by Henrythenavigator ex Peeping Fawn)

Keeping on the naming theme I laughed aloud when I researched John Hawkyns and discovered that he is “often considered to be the pioneer of the British slave trade”. This is obviously keeping in tune with the naval connotations of his sire and, at this rate, we can expect to see Captain Kidd and Bluebeard soon running from Ballydoyle although aficionados of the esoteric art of naming racehorses will point to an organisation with previous “form” in the naming of “Black Sam” Bellamy.

Henrythenavigator (the brilliant miler from 2008) is a second season sire and his first crop included the Breeders Cup juvenile winner, George Vancouver, Pedro the Great and Cristoforo Colombo. Sir John’s dam (who has produced two foals of racing age) was equally illustrious and she counted the 2007 Irish Oaks among four middle-distance Group One wins that year. Peeping Fawn’s first foal was the Galileo filly, Purely Priceless, who has raced only twice (as a 3yo) and she has been second in both starts for Jean Claude-Rouget in France and why she hasn’t raced for Ballydoyle is a bit of a mystery to me as this is an out-and-out Coolmore family that stretches back three generations. Incidentally a half-sister to Sir John Hawkin’s grandam made $14m at public auction in 2008 so one might say that the pedigree is highly “treasured”.

With such a superb and famous pedigree it will be interesting to follow the career of this colt to see what prizes he may be capable of plundering.

Bluebell (filly by Mastercraftsman)

There will be a few hopes invested in this filly to provide Mastercraftsman (Irish Guineas and St James Palace winner in 2009) with a potential star in his first crop. She cost Capo Tim Hyde €200,000 at Goffs in February 2012 – normally a rather undistinguished sale – although some six years ago Hyde bought the subsequent Irish Derby hero Frozen Fire for €250,000 at this same sale.

Des Leadon has been associated with the Irish Equine Centre for many years and his Swordlestown Little stud picked up Bluebell’s dam, Sogno Verde from John Oxx and Lady Clague, for what looks a bargain €60,000 in 2005 after an eleven race career that yielded a solitary 9f maiden win at Tipperary. She is a half-sister to no less than 8 winners the best of which were Pugin (a dual listed winner over 10f & 14f) and Chartres (a listed winner over 12f) and it’s a family that Vincent O’Brien developed in the seventies (he bought the fourth dam, Arkadina (by the imperious Ribot), in Kentucky as part of his crusade to import the very best American bloodlines into Ireland back in the 60’s and 70’s) and includes the 1988 St Leger winner Dark Lomond, third dam of Bluebell so this filly is returning to her historical home in Ballydoyle. In hindsight, this was a rare opportunity to buy into a famous Ballydoyle family and Leadon has to be congratulated for his foresight.

Bluebell (fourth foal) is already a half-sister to the very useful Bobbyscot (7f maiden winner and second in 10f G3 Gallinule for Paul Deegan) and Lilbourne Lad the winner of the G2 Railway stakes for Richard Hannon in 2011. I reckon that Leadon has already accumulated in excess of €700,000 for his sixty grand investment so it really was very smart business. However, I am surprised that he seems to have sold the two fillies that the mare has produced as money sometimes cannot buy these pedigrees that resonate with turf history and high performance.

I will shortly wrap up this preview with a further seven two-year-olds from Coolcullen, Currabeg and Friarstown.

Kevin Prendergast (8 entries)

For a trainer with a waning star it is quite impressive that Kevin Prendegast is in a position to enter 8 horses for the season’s first Group One for juveniles. I am even more impressed that fifty per cent of these are worthy of note based on ownership and pedigree. One has to hand it to SheikhHamdan for the loyalty shown to KP over the years.

Taanif (by Aqlaam)

Middle-eastern names leave me a bit non-plussed as they tend to have little “quality” as regards their careers racing in the British Isles (note to Betfair police: this is a geographical rather than a political expression) and I would also extend this criticism to naming horses after, say, a product or (whisper) a hotel where their uniqueness is lost in a sea of homogeneity. However, there is no denying that Aqlaam (by Oasis Dream) was a fine proponent of the racing art and he retired to stud having progressively climbed the racing ladder that culminated with a victory in the Group One Prix de Moulin de Longchamp over one mile in 2009. Yet another first season sire his first two representatives on the track have yet to register a win although both Culdaff and Aqlaam Vision might soon remedy that.

Sheikh Hamdan supported his stud’s patrons when giving £125,000 for Taanif last autumn and he is a half-brother to Godolphin’s Firebeam a three-time 6f/7f winner who was placed in a couple of black-type events and a Chapple-Hyam filly who won twice over one mile. The dam was good enough (!) to win a one mile Listed event in Italy and the second dam was a half-sister to Intimate Guest who won the 1987 May Hill Stakes (2yo 8f juvenile championship event) under Stevie Cauthen and trained by Sir Henry.

Invisible Flash (by Invincible Spirit)

The Irish National Stud’s CEO, John Osborne, often opines that Invincible Spirit is the strongest stallion in the world because he has been single-handedly carrying the stud for the past decade or so. Joking apart, Invincible Spirit is a serious stallion and is both a prolific winner producer and can sire top class runners.

Invisible Flash is a half-brother to two black-type performers in Able Speed (won 6f G2 Richmond Stakes for R Hannon and later in Japan) and Deal Breaker (5f winner for Eddie Lynam and later in the US) out of a 8f winner who was related to six winners the best of which was a one-mile G2 juvenile scorer.

Taaluf (filly by Nayef)

Choice home-bred filly from Shadwell who is a half-sister to three winners: the filly Jamaayel who scored twice over 6f & 7f at two before picking up black-type when second in a 7f listed event at the Curragh in 2010; a 3yo one mile maiden winning filly and a 7f Galway maiden winning filly. The mother was very good winning the G3 Athasi stakes over 7f at three and she in turn is closely related to three black-type winners over 6f & 7f the best of which was Haatef who won the 6f G2 Diadem Stakes as a 3yo at Ascot. All the family was trained by Prendergast and this filly looks a moral to win races.

The fillies maiden run at the Curragh earlier today causes me to scratch the intended inclusion of J’Aime a very nicely-bred Amadeus Wolf filly who is a half-sister to Lightening Pearl. She was soundly beaten and looks one to avoid.

John Oxx (4 entries)

My Titania (filly by Sea The Stars)

Compared to the tightly-held Coolmore families it can be relatively easy to buy into the Aga Khan lines as he has regular culling sessions annually. Darabaka (by Doyoun) was one such sale and she was bought by Pat Fitzsimon’s Oak Lodge Stud in 1994 for £15,000 as an unraced “cull” from the Aga Khan’s Stud. She was carrying a cover to the modest Pharly and this foal was sold on for just £5,000. This horse was a prolific (albeit modest) two-miler for Mark Prescott but helped to make the mare. The mare produced four more winners including the 1996 Night Shift filly Sassenach who was bought by Sunderland Holdings’ David Tsui (the family of Sea The Stars fame) and she managed to win a 13f Downpatrick maiden for Michael Grassick from just two starts.

Sassenach, in turn, produced four winners for Tsui including a 12f Galileo Grade 3 winner in the US and Fairy Of The Night (by Danehill) who managed a very valuable 7f Listed win for Oxx and Tsui. The above 2yo filly, My Titania, represents Fairy Of The Night’s fourth foal and the only other sibling to run, Aneedah (by Invincible Spirit) was sold by the INS (who manage the Tsui operation) for €100,000 and she won over 8f and was listed placed for John Gosden.

My Titania is an early March foal and represents the first crop of the superstar racehorse that was Sea The Stars who has yet to have his first runner on the track. Just because his first-crop 2yo’s have not been seen by late May doesn’t necessarily signify that the stallion will shortly be a good bet for national hunt duty.

Sea Of Wells (filly by Dansili)

This Dansili filly represents many of the most notable names in bloodstock as she was bred by Denis Brosnan, was sired by Khalid Abdullah’s top-class Dansili and was bought by the Tsui family at Tattersalls last October for £310,000 who are giving a big vote of confidence to their “nice little earner” Sea The Stars. She has been sent to Currabeg Stables of John Oxx to be trained.

Coincidentally this is another Aga Khan dam-line that was sold on and Denis Brosnan seems to have acquired the 10f-winning grandam privately when she retired from racing. She produced five winners for DB including a 7f G3 King Of Kings (“My name is Ozymandias, king of kings: Look on my works, ye Mighty, and despair!") filly but the best of the lot was David Wachman’s Royal Ascot Queen Mary (5f G2) winner Damson one of the best fillies of her generation but whose best days came at two years of age. Brosnan retained the 2006 Sadler’s Wells filly, Kiyra Wells, and she managed to gain a valuable winning bracket over 7f at Roscommon in 2009. She was sent to the breeding shed in 2010 and Sea Of Wells is her first foal and she has a pedigree laden with winning relations.

Jim Bolger (9 entries)

The only unraced Bolger entry I can get excited with is

Prudent Approach (filly by New Approach ex Hymn Of The Dawn)

In very simple terms, this filly is a full-sister to Dawn Approach!

I had half a notion that her sire New Approach might have been a one-trick-pony but Libertarian (G2 Dante winner), Tha’ir (Royal Ascot Chesham winner), Newfangled (Royal Ascot Albany winner) and Montsegur (G1 winner in Australia) relieves me of that notion and Prudent Approach will be an interesting runner when she appears although do bear in mind that she was a May foal.

i see inkerman out tomoro eve gowran..intresting

what did u think of inkermans run yesterday ra?

Update on Juvenile Fillies:

The entries for the Moyglare Stud Stakes – 78 for Ireland’s only 2yo fillies Group 1 event – are in and a number of nominations from both the high-rollers and less fashionable yards catch my eye:

Caliso Bay – home-bred filly by High Chaparral (George Kent)

Dermot Weld doesn’t make too many mistakes training horses but when he advised Stan Cosgrave to discard an unraced 2yo gelding by Notnowcato at the 2011 Goffs horses-in-training sale he can hardly have believed that the animal, Custom Cut, sold to George Kent for just €5,800, would run up a four-timer in handicaps in 2012 followed by a win in the 2013 Gladness Stakes no less! Anyone with a little time on their hands might spend a fruitful thirty minutes exploring this trainer’s recent record as it is very interesting, to say the least!

This latest filly is by a sire who has produced So You Think and this season’s Guineas plot Toronado is out of a mare who won twice over 10f and 11f for Barry Hills and the mother has already produced two capable fillies one of whom won over one mile for Ken Condon and the other has modest placed form over the same trip. The second dam was a triple 7f winner for Shadwell and the best recent relation (Ranin, trained by Ed Dunlop) scored over 15f in the  Group 3 Park Hill Stakes in 2001. A horse and trainer to note.

Ceylon – home-bred filly by Authorized (Patrick Prendergast)

The Californian-born squire of Grangecon Stud, the commodities trader Richard “Rick” Barnes, will be pacing his manicured lawns over the coming weeks in the hope that Sugar Boy, trained also by Prendergast, can break the Ballydoyle stranglehold on the Irish Derby. This is the best horse he has had in training at this level since he set up Grangecon as a rich man’s plaything over a decade ago although he did trade out of Heatseeker (home-bred and trained by Wachman) who went on to win the Grade 1 Santa Anita handicap in 2008. Ireland is fortunate to attract such enthusiasts to the racing game and with the support given to Patrick Prendergast in recent times it offers this trainer the chance of hitting the big time. I, for one, wish these guys the best of luck over the coming weeks. Barnes has assembled a quality broodmare band and is likely to become a more prominent name over the coming years as the breeding operation matures. Sugar Boy, for example, is out of a Danehill mare and was one of Barnes’ first purchases in Europe who won who two races in France for him in 2004.

Ceylon is another example of the “sell the colts, race the fillies” policy for many bloodstock operations and while Ceylon is a sixth foal related to two winners – a sprinter and a miler+ - I see that the dam was offloaded recently by Barnes and looks to have headed to some equatorial racing jurisdiction. One can understand why she was bought in the first place as she is a half-sister to a Ribblesdale (12f) winning mare who subsequently bred very classy middle-distance winner Pentire. Should Ceylon ever be prominent in the betting for the Oaks there won’t be too many articles written about her likelihood to stay the trip!

Gorteo – home-bred filly by Teofilo (Johnny Murtagh)

My earlier nomination of Murtagh’s Kyllachy colt, Beauty’s Forte, looked spot-on last Sunday morning when he was a “talking horse” in the early morning market for the 6f Curragh maiden. In the event he raced way too keenly however and the expensive 11/4 chance shot his bolt but I’m certain now that there will be other days for him as Murtagh doesn’t strike me as a typically quixotic member of his profession and expressed a similar notion in a recent Irish Field interview. However, with this performance and the disappointment of Fort Knox in the Guineas he’s learning early that there are more setbacks than advances in this game.

Gorteo’s breeder, Tom Molan, based in Riversfield Stud in Co. Limerick (chalk and cheese compared to Grangecon!) nonetheless did some seriously shrewd business when he picked up the Arab-owned Woodman mare Gorbrand (very average on the track in Dubai) privately 7 or 8 years ago to help establish his stud as a new investment venture in 2004. She produced a dual Group 1 winning 2007 Rock Of Gibraltar mare (over 8f and 10f) in South Africa as a 5yo from only her second foal and the 2009 colt Harbour Watch (by Acclamation) ran thrice and scored thrice – all over 6f – for Richard Hannon in 2011 including the G2 Richmond Stakes in 2011. Alas for connections Harbour Watch, who was ante-post favourite for the Guineas at one time, never raced again and was retired to stand at David Redver’s stud for 2013. Alas, alas, for Thomas Molan the South African victories for Europa Point came after Harbour Watch was sold as a yearling but the investment returns rang out in November 2012 when a filly foal by Lope De Vega made £150,000 at Newmarket. This followed what must have been a huge disappointment in that a 2010 colt by Cape Cross failed to make a Tattersalls appointment in 2011 and there is no record of this colt since. He would surely have made a small fortune for the breeder and is probably languishing in some paddock with the years rolling by. If the mare can produce a fashionably-bred colt any time soon it will be payola!

It’s no surprise that Molam is holding onto the Teofilo daughter (Gorteo) and receiving an early Group One entry will only enhance the sense of anticipation but any win for this filly will be very valuable. Discounting the mother’s lack of racing ability, this is a fantastic pedigree shared by both Godolphin and Coolmore. Gorteo’s fourth dam is the American-bred Fall Aspen and this mare is an absolute legend and well worth a thesis from any graduate in Darley’s Flying Start programme. Killmallock connections will be hoping to add to the storyboard.

Got To Dream – filly by Duke Of Marmalade (Kevin Prendergast)

The theme of fillies hoping to improve their pedigrees to return to the breeding shed is continued with this £50,000 Tattersalls acquisition. She will be retiring, presumably, to Linacre House Stud owned and run by Lisa and James Kelly-he of racing-manager-to-Lady-O’Reilly fame.

She is the first foal out an unraced Montjeu dam who cost Luca Cumani’s Fittocks Stud £210,000 as an in-foal 3yo in 2010 (the poor teenager!). By the sire of my impending big pay-day on Alive Alive Oh the dam is very closely related to two Sadler’s Wells winners over 12f the best of which was Roses For The Lady who was a very nice stayer for the John Oxx/Neil Jones partnership. In fact, Neil Jones is responsible for most of the recent stars in this family in that the second dam also won twice over 12f and she was a full-sister to Jones’ brightest star, none other than Millenary the winner of the 2000 St Leger. If this filly can be a good 2yo it will be something of a surprise given her very stout breeding but she looks likely to win over longer trips than the 7f of the Moyglare but I will be following her nonetheless.

Grandma’s Hands – filly by Teofilo (Andy Oliver)

Yet more support for Oliver from Barry Irwin’s Team Valor International (Panama Hat already nominated) Grandma’s Hands (a third foal) is already a half-sister to a Richard Hannon 5f winner and Ger Lyons’ recent 9f Gowran debutant Safe Home-both by Danehill Dancer. The dam won over 8f and was listed placed over 10f and was in turn a half-sister to two very good 6f and 5f-7f performers including a G2 Flying Childers 2yo winner. This is a nice speedy and prolific pedigree with most of the track representatives having the winning habit. Sure to win a few races based on her page.

By the way Team Valor's current flagship horse, Animal Kingdowm, runs at Ascot this week and I hope their bravery is rewarded.

Mezogiorno – filly by Zamindar (Michael Halford)

It’s a shame that this filly is labouring under a misspelling as it’s a name ideally suited to the progeny of Midday who produced her first foal (by Galileo) in 2013 and subsequently visited Frankel. Mezogiorno is the third foal of an unraced US-bred Point Given mare who was related to three winners including a mile winning filly who was placed in a 1m listed handicap and the very useful Dance Parade (by Gone West) who won the G3 5f Queen Mary at Ascot at 2 and the Fred Garling (7f G3) at 3 way back in 1996/97. The family was once part of Fahd Salman’s Newgate Stud operation who died aged just 47 in 2001. This Zamindar filly is a half-sister to a Motivator gelding who scored 6 times over 5f & 6f and Halford obviously has a decent opinion of her in her early strides.

Ode To Psyche – filly by Dansili ex Sadler’s Wells mare (Jessica Harrington)

Stavros Niarchos was famously part of the Ballydoyle syndicate of the eighties having bought in to join Vincent O’Brien, Robert Sangster, John Magnier and the American business man Danny Schwartz in their search for glory with American-breds from Keeneland. The best syndicate horses to run in his well-known pale blue and navy colours were Law Society and my beloved Seattle Dancer but, in his own right, Niarchos owned such wonderful thoroughbreds as Miesque, Nureyev, Machiavellian, Kingmambo, Hector Protector and Hernando. His love of horses was only outshone by his love of women and his few billion more than made up for his short stature in this regard.

His daughter, Maria, continues the love affair with the thoroughbred through Flaxman Holdings and a seemingly new Irish branch of this operation has horses in training with David Wachman and Jessica Harrington for 2013 which is very welcome to the industry here.

This filly is out of an unraced dam who is a half-sister to a 6f 2yo Group 3 winner Moon Driver who was trained by Jonathon Pease for the Niarchos family in 1999 and three other black-type performers in France and America. The second dam is a half sister to the majestic Kingmambo and she was a top class miler in her own right (won the French Guineas and Oaks) and Ode To Psyche’s great-grandmother is the mighty Miesque herself. It’s great to have a bloodline such as this back running in Ireland.

More to follow.......

That's a detailed and most interesting post again.

Just to update a little, Bluebell moves up to stakes level next, after her maiden win at Limerick at the rewarding odds of 7/2.
Sudirman was a nr yesterday at Mallow,heavy ground most likely being the reason for his absence.David Wachman won it with his other runner at the nice odds on here of 15.5.
Sir John Hawkins most likely a Royal Ascot runner this week.
Bracelet thrown in at the deep end on her debut, came out to justify short odds in her maiden, the past week. Promising with her gorgeous pedigree.
One that catches my eye from your list RA is 'Ode to Psyche" and its a real bonus for Jesse H to have this type in her stable. Indeed its a huge plus for her to have an owner with access to such big funds  as this Niarchos lady has,she herself an offspring of Stavros, who was a Shipping Magnate, and fierce rival to Aristotle Onassiss who along with his  shipping fleet, also bagged First Lady the late Jackie. Amazing Onassiss never got stuck into the horses, as he had a hand in so much other stuff,some not so legal.He having started out in the illegal cigarette trade, moving onto cigars, to founding his Shipping Fleet, and moving oil around the world in his huge Tankers, the first of their size. Niarchos was a fierce rival to Onassiss and they were bitter enemies for a long time, and I seem to remember that they were connected by marriage in some fashion. I am sure that one of the women in the  'Niarchos' family met a violent death, with no convictions for anyone. Close one though, I seem to remember there was a trial. But dear me I digress from the matter in hand, and good luck with your thread RA.........

JayT

thanks for the lesson above,with all their money,they never seemed to find happiness,such is life I suppose.

Keep up the contributions RA absolutely fascinating reading.

Fascinating read as always RA and how impressive was the war front 2yo colt today.

It would be an interesting research task to attempt to estimate Coolmore's annual global revenue but it would be difficult to estimate because of their complex stallion nominations and shares.I would imagine John Magnier's wealth is underestimated at €500 million.

Will tomorrow be your big pay day with Tommy Stacks ?

Hint of a Tint beaten just 3l today when 5th of 23 at Royal Ascot.

Oklahoma City cost 675K and is due out 2moro at Leopardstown. (Ballydoyle)

Fair enough RA., each to their own. Alive Alive Oh Non-runner today. My only bet is going to be Sudirman in the 2yr old race at Leopardstown. I think if the costly Ballydoyle fellow was fit+ready Joseph would pop back to ride.

Well done RA, homework pays off...
This thread is a reminder that there was a time when this forum was a worthwhile read.

Hazy Days (sporting a hood), and Inkerman tonight at Naas. I don't really see Hazy winning as he is a wee bit disappointing in his last one or two runs.......

Little Fastnet out tonight in Tipperary, in what looks a winnable race. Dry fast ground, sure to suit, and interesting to see if its in any way fancied. DW's stable is hitting form so worth keeping an eye on this.

Kavvie, don't give up on Inkerman, remember there is always the Triumph Hurdle.

Sudirman wins the Railway yesterday, and today we have So Devoted and Alive Alive Oh, here we go..... Alive Alive Oha, frying cockles and rustles, so bring on the Lily whites...............

Mid-term Report to 31st July 2013

Since posting my recommendations since April last I have divided my horses-to-follow into two batches i.e. the older “dark” horses and the unraced two-year-olds.

Dark Horses:

The unexposed three-year olds-and-up have been doing well and retuned a profit of 51.5 points on a total of 58 bets to LSP. Highlights were Missava, Euphrasia and, of course, the dual-scorer Roca Tumu. I am eliminating many of the previous nominees and hopefully the following bunch will pay their way between now and season’s end.

So Devoted: surely now only a question of “when” now that he has been fancied in two recent runs in races with subsequent form that stands up to scrutiny.

Indy Gal: her turn cannot be far away after two decent efforts in May and June. Has possibly been given a break and looks to have a liking for soft ground. Was third at 25/1 on the day she first showed ability and almost repaid my faith then.

Ozeta: no great faith in this fellow but I am a fan of the trainer “Boots” and I am hoping there will be some hint of residual ability over the coming weeks.

Hint Of A Tint: has decent form and ran a cracker in the Sandringham. Her 4yo full-sister has only recently been in action (two runs – two wins for Robert Ogden, including on easy ground) and I am thinking that a run on soft ground might be the opportunity that will give her winning stakes form. I’m pretty confident Wachman will get the best out of her and there are loads of opportunities over the coming weeks and months.

Don’t Bother Me: I like his profile and I hope Niall Moran continues to race him against the best as he may have a big payday in him.

Mizzava: owes me nothing and I think she needed a break after recent exertions. I equate her profile to that of Don’t Bother Me and will be backing her in any company for the rest of her career.

Kentucky Woman: expect to see money for her when she next runs. Should be capable of winning something this year.

I considered the following but they don’t go on my list:

Both Tae Think Again and Mindy haven’t disgraced themselves in maidens but it would require the trainers to be in winning form before I could trust either to improve sufficiently to win.

And finally,……………………………………………….Hazy Days.

I was in the process of outlining reasons why I hadn’t entirely lost faith in him when I discovered he has left Wachman and is now with Niall Madden who has given him an early entry for a 3yo hurdle. He will probably get far more attention in his new Kildare location but a lot of my initial enthusiasm has evaporated. You usually need the barest glimpse of form in a previous run to encourage loyalty but that is missing here. I'll watch his progress nonetheless with more than mild curiosity as he reminds me of a previous Wachman inmate, Rocky Wednesday.

Two-Year-Olds:

I selected 43 youngsters of which 20 have run in 43 races and are showing a modest profit of 6.4 points at LSP mainly thanks to War Command’s win at Ascot at 20/1. There have been 9 victories from 7 starters.

When reporting on my list of unraced 2yo’s from the 2012 season I was able to claim a healthy profit on 6 winners from 23 starters first-time-out. This trend is looking pretty poor to the end of July in the current season with just 3 winners from 20 starters and a level-stakes loss of 13.4 points so far. However one very important factor to consider is that 27 of the 38 points returned last year came from 3 winners in the period post-July with winners at 5/1, 7/1 and 12/1 so I would be reasonably confident that supporting the following twenty unraced 2yo’s will return a profit from now on:

Amaradian
Derulo
Keyboard Melody
Taaluf
My Titania
Sea Of Wells
Prudent Approach
Nonchalant
Panama Hat
Caliso Bay
Ceylon
Grandma’s Hands
Mezogiorno
Roheryn
Waltzing Matilda
Supposing
Mr Rock
Boqa
Obliterator
Snowmane

Last August I posted:.............. so I would be reasonably confident that supporting the following twenty unraced 2yo’s will return a profit from now on:

Amaradian: never raced

Derulo: 3 runs this spring (will be nicely handicapped and a possible future conveyance for Murtagh’s daughter)

Keyboard Melody...one modest run last month; all four of the excellent dam’s previous five foals to make the track were good winners so expect this horse to leave this debut run well behind. I expect he will not be apprentice ridden again any time soon.
Taaluf: you have to be taken by this family and Kevin Prendergast’s record with older siblings and generations. Three runs have hinted at ability and a decent handicap win could not be ruled out-perhaps after winning a modest country maiden and a mark of 70-75.

My Titania: two wins from three starts and needs to give Sea The Stars a boost. With an eye on future performances I would go for races of 10f+ based on pedigree and look for an encouraging pre-Oaks run in the Irish 1000 Guineas.

Sea Of Wells: won its only start recently at 15/8.

Prudent Approach: two modest enough starts last year considering she is a full sister to Dawn Approach. I suspect they’ll try to win a soft maiden and disappear her from view thereafter.

Nonchalant: recent winning start for Weld/Smullen at 4/1.

Panama Hat: five runs last term without success-needs to drop 9/10lbs to be competitive.

Caliso Bay: Kent knew what he had right at the start of this season (OR was just 47) and he won at a very generous 10/1 recently after a string of fancied, placed efforts.

Ceylon: just one unplaced start last season and yet to reappear. Wasn’t a bad maiden with plenty of future winners in the ranks.

Grandma’s Hands: recent 10/1 scorer on fourth start

Mezogiorno: has shown potential in recent runs after 6 starts and a combination of poor draws and possibly lying too far out of her ground has cost her recently. On the other hand she may need further than a mile. Will surely get her turn soon.

Roheryn: Lyons achieved “mission accomplished” (on her fourth start) last week at Wexford where this Galileo filly won a mile-and-a-half maiden.
Waltzing Matilda: won on her debut at 3/1 and could be of a high calibre. Fozzie Stack has suggested she may need 10f and her recent fourth in a Guineas Trial was another step forward. I think she will land a decent pattern prize this season especially on the soft ground that Danehill Dancer’s love.

Supposing: third on both starts for Wachman and should a win maiden at her level. Probably of 70-75 ability.

Mr Rock: unraced

Boqa: won third start at 6/5

Obliterator: won at 9/1 on debut last September and probably Lyons’ best horse and big white hope. On his only subsequent start he was 2nd in 9f Listed Newmarket race. True Story left the form down in the Dante this week (although the fourth and fifth have franked the form) but there was a lot of confidence behind Obliterator last month suggesting he’s working brilliantly in Glenburnie.

Snowmane: £190,000 Galileo colt who has only shown modest form in two starts for Ger Lyons although I suspect he hated the heavy ground on his latest seasonal-debuting start. Lyons hasn’t given up on him, that’s for sure: “I wasn't in love with him last season and thought he was just an honest if limited performer, but he's after doing well from two to three. Last year I'd have said he'd struggle to win his maiden, but now I'd say he'll definitely do that. “

Nine winners from eighteen starters and modest profit backing them “blind” first time up 21.5%. I still think there’s more to come from many of the above. George Kent’s winner was the most satisfying nomination thanks to the early big-race hint.
I will be closely following Taaluf, Mezogiorno, Waltzing Matilda, Obliterator and looking for more encouragement from Derulo (the daughter factor will help the price), Panama Hat and Snowmane.

showing a profit backing them blind is to be expected, from a list so obviously well thought out, you have done well with your selections, horses that havent raced before are going to be more difficult to win with then finding horses that have already proven something on a race course. lets hope the horses on your list keep winning for you. gl