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Great thread, RA. FYI, Red Sea Poll was 5 pound out of the handicap last time out, thus hasn't been dropped 5 pound for today. In fact, she is actually 4 pound out of the handicap today, so effectively runs off 58.
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This is truely an excellent thread, great stuff RA, keep up the good work. I thought Private Alexander showed great battling qualities the other evening at Limerick and I reckon she might be above average. Abbey Vale improved considerably and looks sure to win a maiden over a touch further.
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As redbait pointed out Red Sea Poll was unfavourably treated at the weights for the second successive occasion on Sunday and the extra 4lbs possibly cost him a place-beaten 1L by third home. I also missed the fact he was wearing blinkers for the first time (not my finest analysis pre-race by a long chalk) and they probably helped. He needed to be stoked along from halfway but ran ok. It’s always difficult to know when to follow and when to discard these handicappers but the “rule” of following for three runs and continuing to follow if they win (for at least two runs) isn’t a bad approach. If connections can find a race in which he carries his true weight (shouldn’t be raised for Sunday) and put a claimer (Dawson or Gray) on board he would suddenly have a 10lb+ swing.
Gossamer Seed ran another fine race to be third in the sprint. I felt a little sorry for her because she ran her heart out and got an awful lot of encouragement from the saddle over a trip that looks too short nowadays. The heavy ground probably gave her an advantage against a few in the field but it was not to be. In my experience horses that win over 7f tend to be specialists over that trip so that has to be the plan for the season. I'm saving up for her. Betterbetterbetter finished second in the fillies stake and now has the onerous task of winning her next start to continue a five-year 100% record of the runner-up winning their next start. I hope its a decent contest to ensure a good price. I didn’t bother to preview the juvenile races at Limerick last Saturday as the likely prices were unattractive. The fillies auction maiden was a match between Wachman’s Royal Empress and Lyons’ Private Alexander. There was a lot of money for Lyons’ winner and she could be quite good. The Wachman filly (and jockey) attracted a lot of vitriol afterwards when failing to see out the 7f trip and only the future will tell whether it was stamina or faintheartedness that caused the loss. Wachman’s Probably was odds-on to win the colts maiden and he won in some style. Lyons’ Abbey Vale had been down the field just three days earlier at Fairyhouse and he was the real notebook horse for me here and I hope he might pick up a nice nursery when these get going. Harrington’s Newberry Hill was a little disappointing in fourth. Today: There is a competitive 2yo race in Sligo tonight and I think it will likely see some money for the in-form Lyons yard and Toccata Blue. Although only fourth of four on his last start at Dundalk the three in front (Dylanbaru, Versilia Gal and Einsteins Folly) have all franked the form and he looks to have a good chance. Toccata Blue is the first foal out of an unraced mare who cost €160,000 as a yearling so there’s plenty on the page to suggest he could be useful. Hard to see him not being in the front three although I wonder is an early-morning drift ominous? The nicely-named Fontana Di Trevi was an obvious eye-catcher from her first start at Navan 10 days ago and I’d prefer to see her run prominently without being too obvious. |
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I occasionally mention threads that impress me here and GEORGE.B’s “Notebook Selections” on the main racing forum is a case in point. It reminds me of a passing acquaintance who claims to be a professional punter and seems to have a connection with the Nick Mordin’s methodologies. I once met him in a PP shop with a list of horses as long as your arm to back that afternoon and I was very underwhelmed by the whole experience whereby you are shovelling cash over the counter on a regular basis and it called for a particular temperament. I would prefer to be far, far more selective in my approach, punt when you think you have virtually every angle covered and don’t forget to bless your self passing the church or light a joss-stock to Buddha for good measure.
GEORGE.B is doing a tremendous job of illustrating one method of how to win at the game and his winning strike-rate is just 11% for winners and 34% for placed horses since he started in early April. I’m not sure what his return on investment is but I DO know that what he does must be a very time-consuming process. He obviously follows all UK flat racing and follows his notebookers through thick and thin following certain rules and, occasionally, this happens (posted yesterday): ffs, I'd selected White Oak Lady the last 3 times she'd run after catching my eye at Bath. As soon as I give her the sack, in she goes at 20s. Fecking hell, tames lions this game, as they say How often I have “tweaked” my own rules in hindsight to “improve” my return on any system I am researching-taming lions indeed! It would be virtually impossible to follow this thread unless you had a lot of time on your hands and losing recommended early prices will always be frustrating. In my view, there’s nothing like fancying a long odds shot, watching the market ignore its chances and picking up huge odds here from benefactors. They don’t roll around too often but when they do, they’re memorable. Hence I back very few horses and find its all the more enjoyable for that. Watching the 2yo in Sligo last night got me thinking about such matters. A reasonably competitive contest at a gaff track, the highest-profile stables involved, doubts in my mind that I didn’t understand any draw bias, a very confusing market and you are left with the distinct impression that many races are best left alone. Andy Oliver’s winner attracts a little morning support and is also backed on course from 6/1 to 9/2. He manages to beat the 11/4 favourite (from 7/2 on course; 5’s in the morning) and, oh yes!, the favourite is also trained by Andy Oliver. Ger Lyons’ horse, Toccata Blue, runs nothing like the form that might have been expected and you come to the conclusion “he wouldn’t be sending it to Sligo if it’s any good”. It didn't escape my attention that on a line through Einstein's Folly (won the maiden in which the winner had his only previous start) then Toccata Blue was a disappointment. Like I say, I’m very good with twenty-twenty vision. |
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By the way as I didn't get too many self-addressed envelopes with the twenty five quid (sterling!) in advance of the Noblesse Stakes I have decided that Betterbetterbetter will be a pony "odds to first show" to clients, patrons and cynics when she wins next time out.
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Royal Academy you had your own White Oak Lady in Boss Croaker,you mentioned this lad as one to watch in a few maiden hurdles and he then was backed in a handicap hurdle at Cork and won at 14/1 available at much higher here.
Sorry for bringing back that sore memory but ut shows there is nothing wrong with your eye. |
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Thanks wildman: I haven't seen a better source of winners in the jumping game than following the winning point maidens. But its the closest possible attention to detail when they start running is the hard part. Even with every technological tool available to man it would still take a lot of time to study, research and follow your hunches. As to how you tackle a puzzle such as that presented by, say, this week's Wokingham, the mind boggles!
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There are two horse going over from my area,Gordon Lord Byron and Maarek and i can`t even split them.
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5.55pm Leopardstown – 6f EBF maiden (forecast going: good-soft)
It’s funny how you can have a mistaken understanding of a situation: I was under the distinct impression that Pearl Bloodstock had significantly upped the ante when they gave Ger Lyons Lightening Pearl to train in 2011 i.e. that she was by some way the most expensive yearling he has handled for them and proved himself accordingly with the extra responsibility when winning the G1 Chevely Park at two. Not so! Lightening Pearl was a relatively expensive €125,000 Goffs purchase and he certainly got the best out of her before she failed to train on at three. In fact the most expensive horse he has trained for them was a $420,000 2009 Tapit filly named Qatar’s Pearl who recouped just €2,500 of her cost as a 2yo-she seems to have been retired to stud after just two starts at two-perhaps not. I do find these American filly purchases interesting in that the pedigrees have plenty of ink on the page but I’d much rather see a more familiar (European) racing family and pedigree before shelling out close to half a million dollars if they are to run over here. So far Lyons has handled 9 two-year-olds for these connections (including Hard Walnut) and has managed to win with three of them. This is by way of introduction to Pearl Music, an Oratorio colt bought by Pearl’s principal agent, David Redvers, for €42,000 last autumn at Goffs. He’s the fifth foal out of an unraced Ashkalani mare and is a sibling to two winning fillies including an Italian listed placed winner. It’s very much an Aga Khan family and plenty of stayers on the page. Pearl Music is worth keeping an eye on but he doesn’t jump off the page tomorrow. The horses Lyons has handled costing less than one hundred thousand have not tended to win for him but this is probably just coincidence from a small sample. Other news:I see that one of the well-entered two-year-olds, Discernable, trained by Mark Johnston and mentioned in a previous post won first-time-out at Kempton tonight at 11/4. Cay Verde gets a chance to confirm the Mick Channon trend that I mentioned in late May in connection with his runners in the Marble Hill. Hopefully he can win the Norfolk Stakes tomorrow. Finally I am pleased to see JJM has given his classy filly an entry for the handicap on Friday so I hope Ascot gets plenty of rain before 5.35pm on Friday. He trained Goldplated to win at Sligo last night just two days after she ran unplaced in teh Noblesse Stakes! |
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Allaboard tomorrow RA with Betterbetterbetter, decent bit of opposition so should be ok price wise.......... as I dont have any fivers is it ok to send 10x3 sterling (of course)
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Lightnin Hopkins improved for its initial run at Fairyhouse. Lyons thinks he is listed class.
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I posted threads on 30th and 31st May last year that identified interesting entries for unraced 2yo's that might be worth keeping an eye on.
By my calculation 23 horses were named with 6 of them winning on their debuts at prices Discernable 11/4, What Style 5/1, Mooqtar 5/1, Fighter Squadron 12/1, Hint Of A Tint 5/1 and Janoub Nibras @ 2/9 to give a very healthy profit to LSP. Its a tried and tested formula and doesn't give an over-abundance of horses to follow each season. Four of the youngsters never ran and they are: More Than Amazing, Secret Session, Inkerman and Maktoob. Of those that have run I note that Hint Of A Tint is Wachman's only classic entry and Andy Oliver will surely wrest a win or two from Tiger Stripes. Bolger's Bunreacht is probably worth an interest too. I will post a few nominations for the current year when the early closing races are filled. |
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Royal A
Wachman has an unnamed 2 yr old as far as I know, by henry the nav out of a gone west mare,bought at keeneland has it rang any alarm bells on your research |
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Wachman only enters for prestigious races based on homework so his early entries are usually a strong hint. Inkerman a case in point. Even tho he trains for the same guys as Aidan he takes a more intelligent approach to race planning.
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I will attempt to find a few likely future winners now that the flat season proper is back with us:
Bill Farrell spent his time in Coolmore and Ballydoyle before taking up the role as stud manager for Alan Dargan’s Eyrefield Stud on the Curragh. He has been the stud’s private trainer since 2000 and succeeded the likes of Neil McGrath and David Hanley who trained for Dargan’s father, Michael, former chairman of Goffs. The stud races horses for just a few private owners and Farrell’s record has been impressive with a couple of standout features. To judge by his handling of handicappers he is extremely shrewd and of 26 winners since he started training no less than 24 of them have been in handicaps with 13 of them coming at his local track. He also has a decent record at Leopardstown and Naas. Some of the best horses he has handled include Glocca Morra (improved from winning mark of 50 to 93), Ballivor (73-82), Sedna (72-79), Sharisse (66-89) and, mostly recent, the four-time scorer Man Of Erin (47-77) whose winning days are not yet over I suspect. Jockey-wise, J Murtagh is the “go to” pilot with a 30% strike-rate although both Padraig Beggy and apprentice Marc Monaghan also have good records for Farrell. It was surely significant that his 4yo Holy Roman Emperor filly, So Devoted, attracted support to win the 6f maiden at the Curragh on the opening day at the Curragh last week and although she didn’t run up to expectations we have been informed that she is quite highly thought of at home. A staying-on fourth at Gowran last September was quite eye-catching and I think she will be of interest in handicaps from here on in. Her mark should leave lots of scope to improve too. The Dargan’s picked up the mare (carrying a Be My Guest foal and she is an unraced half-sister to Anshan who was third in a Guineas) in 1998 for £40,000 and she has, so far, produced three winners from four runners excluding So Devoted-the exception being the afore-mentioned BMG colt. The three winning siblings all managed to win over 6f at two but needed longer trips as three-year-olds. It can also be said that the filly’s sire is best with runners from 7f+ so, in hindsight, trying to win over 6f might have been a tad optimistic. |
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When John O’Byrne bought Hazy Days for £70,000 at Tattersalls as a yearling for J P McManus in 2011 it would not be surprising if the grandam’s half-brother, Celestial Halo, caught his eye. From a very decent flat pedigree this 2004 gelding (by Galileo) won the 2008 Triumph Hurdle for Paul Nicholls and was recently second to Solwhit in the World Hurdle. Hazy Days was sent to David Wachman to train and Wachman’s best horse for McManus over the past few years was Lethal Weapon who was well backed to win two 10f handicaps in 2008 before scoring on his first three starts over hurdles for Christy Roche. Following a disappointing run in the 2009 Triumph Hurdle Lethal Weapon was never the same horse afterwards.
Hazy Days (by Green Desert) is a half-brother to two winners including the top-class filly, Dubawi Heights, who is a dual Grade One winner in the States (over 9f and 10f) and she made $1.6m when sold at public auction in late 2011. He is also a half-brother to a 100-rated winner over 6f and 8f and his very modest full brother was placed over 6f on a couple of occasions. His dam also won over 6f (failed to train on at three) and she is a half-sister to five other winning fillies the best of which was Tante Rose who won the 7f Fred Darling in 2003 (well-establish 7f Guineas trial) before winning the 2004 Haydock Sprint Cup (Group One over 6f) in 2004. All in all, a lovely pedigree. Hazy Days ran at Cork on Saturday in a 6f maiden and, not for the first time, she wasn’t given a very hard race. I would encourage anyone to watch her only three runs to date closely and I think you will agree that this looks a horse with oodles of talent and is likely to receive a very winnable handicap mark over the coming weeks now that the third maiden run has been completed. More than likely he will be winning at short prices but his chance looks very obvious to me. My guess is that his optimum trip will be perhaps over a mile and it will be educational to watch how his trainer campaigns him. Wachman is an excellent handler of three-year-old handicappers and has already score with Seussical in this sphere this season. |
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So Devoted runs today on the Curragh, 7f maiden, and when I get a chance later I must have a look at Hazy Days runs...........
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So Devoted ran a nice race, beaten just over eight lengths, AP won it with Moth.SD close up behind horses and all happy with todays work
out. Watched Hazy Days and a good spot by RA..........I dont mind taking a short price after you now jaypea |
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Very well written and informed views on the two horses Royal Academy, So Devoted wasn,t fancied today at 33/1 and while the winner Moth was impressive(travelled and quickened well from off the pace) So Devoted finished near enough to the runner up after being slightly keen early.
Mightn,t have mattered in the end but she was a bit boxed at a crucial stage and had no where to go. Looked at Hazy Days debut and being honest wasn,t too impressed as it was ridden from a long way out,however his other two runs were quite eyecatching and can only agree the horse has talent. Good stuff RA. |
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Pat Martin is based in Slane and enjoyed his best season last year since his best-ever winning total in 2005 (17) when winning 13 races and an overall strike-rate of 15%. Ten horses contributed to the total of which exactly half were owned by his father-in-law Tom Brennan.
Tom Brennan is a very colourful character and made his money in construction and features quite prominently in the Flood Tribunal having rubbed shoulders with plenty of luminaries in his day. Jim Bolger and, to a lesser extent, Aidan O’Brien trained for him in the late 80’s/early 90’s before the marriage of his daughter to Martin ensured that a racing partnership was forged that has been quite successful over the past twenty years. Brennan operates from Hilltown Stud in Clonsilla under the banner Holborn Trust Co and the best horses he has produced would include the stallion Danetime and David Wachman’s He’s A Decoy both of which he sold as a foal and yearling respectively. Many of the horses that Martin trains for him would be household names such as Indiana Gal (won 6 races from 2007-2009 and improved from a rating of 77 to 99), Knock Stars (a filly who won the 2010 Birdcatcher), Stones Peak (four-time handicap winner from 51-80) and Versilia Gal a dual scorer at two last season and probably on a winning mark again at the moment. Unsurprisingly, a lot of the horses put in training with Martin are fillies with the clear intention of perpetuating the dam-lines. The horse I am suggesting to follow from the Curragh yesterday is Indy Gal who happens to be a half-sister (by Intikhab) to Knock Stars and is also a sibling to three other track winners. All the stock from the dam to race to date have won and I am looking to Indy Gal to continue this record in time. Indy Gal’s dam is Knockatotaun (by Spectrum) who scored twice over 12f for Martin/Brennan and who happens to be a half-sister to Indiana Gal (won over 7f-11f) and three other winners. For good measure the grandam (by Danehill) won four times over 9f for the same connections back in 1996/97 and she, in turn, is related to a hatful of winners. I can offer no insight on Indy Gal other than her pedigree and a partnership with winning ways but once a certain high-flying apprentice is on board and she starts running in handicaps her progress should be noted. I also hope that, although last of seven yesterday, she didn’t finish too close although the pace was non-existent for half the race. The Farrell filly, who also ran in this maiden, did nothing to dissuade me from following her this season in handicaps around a mile or so. |
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Three-year-old Classic Entries
Scanning through the entries for the English classics a number of horses caught my eye. It might be worthwhile noting them if and when they re-appear this season. The ones that interest me most are: English 2000 Guineas: Don’t Bother Me (Niall Moran): decent performer who won a 7f Leopardstown maiden on good-soft in September. Ran well on his return at Dundalk against a Ballydoyle good thing who had been second in the Norfolk and third in the Middle Park. This is easily the best horse that Moran has trained and he could win a decent pot for him this year. His sire, Dark Angel, has been a revelation and his first crop certainly trained on a 3yo’s. Mooqtar (K Prendergast): Prendergast may not be the force of old but Sheikh Hamdan certainly rewarded him for his loyalty with this yearling in 2011. He’s a half-brother to five winners and all the family to race have won and all were trained by Prendergast. Four of them won as 2yo’s and, more importantly, all bar one won at three. The best of the quintet were Haatef who won the 6f Group 2 Diadem Stakes at 3 and Shimah who was second in the Moyglare. Shimah, in fact, was the only one of the family not to win at 3 but her sole start saw her finish unplaced in the Guineas. Mooqtar won a 7f Leopardstown maiden (good) in September on his only start in a race that produced four very decent horses in the previous five years namely: Casual Conquest (Rogers Gold Cup winner), Vocalised (Greenham Stakes), Chabal (second in National Stakes and won Sandown Classic Trial) and Akeed Mofeed (won Listed Platinum stakes at Cork). The placed horses in last year’s race have also done their bit for the form. Plenty in that history to suggest this horse will be a strong bet in his second season. English 1000 Guineas: Hint Of A Tint (D Wachman): This is another John O’Byrne purchase (£125,000) for JP (runs in his daughter’s name) and it’s another filly with a superb pedigree. She is the third foal out of an unraced Galileo mare who is a half-sister to French Derby winner Hernando and many other black-type winners. HOAT (by Danehill Dancer) won her only start at two on atrocious Curragh ground and has been “minded” ever since. As I have often said Wachman rarely calls a goose a swan and this filly has all the big entries so the hint, as they say, should be taken. I will look at the Irish Classics later in the week where I have already spotted a few intriguing entries. |
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Royal A
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Royal A where can one find the entries for the classics
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Some interesting horses still left in the first fillies Irish Classic:
Irish 1000 Guineas: Rocktique (John Oxx): unraced; Lord John is parsimonious with his owners’ money so it’s probably significant that he has left this unraced three-year-old in the race. She cost $70,000 at the 2011 Keeneland September Sale and is related to a decent 7f Group-placed winner in France and two winners in the U.S. Her dam, by Danehill, won over 8f in the US (cost Paul Shanahan £160,000 as a yearling and was placed over 7f for Charles O’Brien at two), is well-related and traces back to the mighty Storm Bird. She is by a US-based sire, Hard Rock Ten, who has had a decent start to his stallion career. Starland (J Bolger): unraced; from a very recognisable Bolger family, Starland’s unraced dam (by the royal and regal Royal Academy!) is a half-sister to Bolger’s 1994 Phoenix Stakes winner Eva Luna and the 1993 Futurity (G3 over 8f) winner Cois Na Tine. Three of Starland’s sibling have won for Bolger the best being the triple handicap winner (over 8f, 10f & 11f) Coolcullen Times. The dam hasn’t produced a top-class foal as yet but she is throwing winners. Starland is by none other than Galileo which gives her every opportunity and her full-sister, Solas Na Greine, won over 7f at two but did little thereafter. Mizzava (M Halford): this filly won’t be winning any Classics but I’d say she will be winning! Four of her siblings have won, one was placed and the only “bad” horse was by a poor stallion, Mull Of Kintyre, now enjoying tiffin in the Raj. Curiously, he was also the only colt to represent the Niniski dam, a winner up to 10f. Mizzava’a winning half-sisters include Elletelle who was Ger Lyons’ first Royal Ascot winner (5f Queen Mary), a one-mile German listed winner and a Mark Johnston 7f winner. Halford’s filly is by Cape Cross so one would expect her optimum trip to be 8f+. Missava had one start at two finishing 9th in a 7f Dundalk maiden running a race of some promise. Obviously, Halford believes she is a lot better than that. Sister Slew (JG Murphy): Joe Murphy looks to have a nice three-year-old prospect in this daughter of Kheleyf who is very closely-related (they share the same grand-sire) to a one-mile winner for the same connections in 2011. These are the first two foals of a Capote-winning US-bred dam. Three runs over 7f at two have been promising-one in particular should have you gasping!-and she looks sure to carry on the record (five winning fillies over the past three years) of Murphy winning with the stud owner’s fillies. Mindy (PJ Prendergast): this entry jumps out at me thanks to the very good start to the season by the trainer. She was an unconsidered 20/1 shot when sixth in a Curragh (heavy) maiden last season and the run was eye-catching. She finished upsides Stack’s Wannabe Better who ran well last weekend. Her pedigree suggests she wont be seeing trips of less than one mile again with the Montjeu dam related to an Oaks-placed filly. GH: these entries are available on all the best racing websites: RP, Irish Racing etc. |
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Irish 2000 Guineas:
Inkerman (D Wachman): unraced; if memory serves, Vincent O’Brien and Lester Piggott were associated with a horse of this name who may have won at Royal Ascot so the naming of this horse could be significant. From the first crop of Duke Of Marmalade-the Danehill colt who excelled over 10f-12f – Inkerman was a €140,000 purchase by Demi O’Byrne for the Coolmore partnership. The breeder, Frank Barry, would a capo in the Tipperary mafia and is no slouch at breeding good horses. Inkerman’s dam, Lady Taufan, was a 1989 home-bred for Barry in 1991 (couldn’t sell her at four grand) and she remained a maiden for Kevin Prendergast although placed from 7f-9f. Her sprinting full-sister, also bred by Barry, did her bit for the page when winning three times at two in a season that included a placing in the Group 2 Lowther Stakes. It’s clear from the early coverings of Lady Taufan (Turtle Island and Statoblest) that she was no great white hope for the stud but her fortunes as a broodmare improved when three consecutive covers by Orpen produced three multiple winners who were all best around one mile. She hasn’t been the most prolific breeder in recent years due to advancing years but Duke Of Marmalade would represent by far and away her most high-profile covering ever as a result of her black-type Orpen performers. The sire has it all to do in his second season at the moment and this horse may represent a good chance for him. English Deer (Paul Deegan): owned by Deegan’s biggest patron, Jaber Abdullah, I would question the horse still holding this entry but he looks likely to win before long. In fact the horse was a strongly-fancied third at Gowran earlier this week and, according to Johnny Ward, is “held in some regard”. He was beaten by inmates from Bolger’s (who else!) and Kevin Prendergast whose horses have been running consistently well. His solitary run at Dundlak last season was promising where he was short enough in the betting but an outside, coffin draw saw him too busy, too early. |
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RA......a staely and splendid post, hope we get a few winners outta yuor hard work..... twill be a long season................
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RA you are correct about Inkerman. I remember Lester riding it . By Vaguely Noble out of Crimea. I also thought it won at Ascot but maybe it only placed.
INKERMAN (USA) b. H, 1975 DP = 9-8-19-4-10 (50) DI = 1.13 CD = 0.04 - 17 Starts, 5 Wins, 3 Places, 3 Shows Career Earnings: $255,601 Winnings: 17 Starts: 5 - 3 - 3, $255,601 Won: Gallinule S.-Gr.2 (IRE), Joe McGrath Memorial S.-Gr.1 (IRE), Sunset H.-Gr.1 (USA). 2nd: American H.-Gr.2 (USA). 3rd: Blandford S.-G2 (IRE), Sunset H.-Gr.1 (USA), American H.-Gr.2 (USA). |
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Inkerman also ran in the Derby
June 7, 1978 In a dramatic finish to the Derby, Shirley Heights (John Dunlop/Greville Starkey) squeezes through a gap on the rails to beat Hawaiian Sound (Barry Hills/Willie Shoemaker) by a head. Favourite Inkerman (Vincent O'Brien/Lester Piggott) is 21st of 25. |
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Definitely Best-5yo mare by Kings Best ex Valentina Guest
Choosing a trainer who is only 1-26 with her flat runners with her solitary success coming at Ballinrobe in 2009 is probably not good economics but this mare might reward a financial interest at some stage at a decent price. Definitely Best's dam was a tough old boot and won four races for Peter Casey and Basil Brindley, winning over 7f at two before winning three 10f Leopardstown handicaps from 2004-2006 and she also managed to sneak some black-type when third over both 13f and 14f. Curiously her two winning siblings also managed to score in Leopardstown handicaps from distances from 8f-16f, again for the Casey/Brindley partnership. Brindley paid plenty for the grandam when she was bought from the Aga Khan in 2000. Brindley’s dividend on Valentina Guest first foal was a paltry €1,200 as a yearling and she was obviously a disappointing sort as it took her until her 4yo season to get to the track when she ran five times without success and a handicap mark of 62. This mark was a bit of a disaster to be honest because she was allowed to show up too well when fourth in a Gowran maiden last September and paid the price! She ran reasonably promisingly and the winner (won again off 78), second (also won off 78) and third (won two races) have all advertised the form. Admittedly, Definitely Best was 4L in arrears of the third but the fifth and sixth home have placed form in handicaps. Definitely Best made her seasonal appearance at the Curragh last week and seemed to run well enough in her first handicap when 6L 6th/13 in a one-mile handicap and wasn’t entirely friendless in the market. Ben Curtis has ridden her in her last four starts and my guess is he will have praised her when he dismounted and her trainer, Maria Kelly, will be hoping she provides her with another winner almost four years after her last (and only) success. She ran off 59 and has since been dropped another pound but I’d prefer to see her on 54/55 to have a decent winning chance. Who knows, maybe a 10f Leopardstown handicap just might be the winning ticket. The list is already off to a solid start with Halford’s Mizzava winning at 25/1 (BSP 65)at Limerick, Don’t Bother Me just getting collared at 12/1 yesterday and only Wachman’s Hint Of A Tint ran poorly of three runners in last few days. Wachman's filly was a big disappointment as if there's one thing these Danehill Dancer fillies can do is gallop through heavy ground. All is probably not lost yet though as Berry obviously expected her to show a serious turn of foot up the straight. I wonder what Wayne Lordan thought of it all. |
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Solid start is some understatement,I was watching the racing at Limerick and saw the fillies getting worked up,saw Hanky Panky dripping with sweat,remember this thread and remembered Missava being mentioned so that coupled with the fractiousness of Hanky Panky made me a layer of the odds on filly.
A belated thanks Royal Academy |
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Sadler’s Wells, trained by Vincent O’Brien, needs no introduction and became the greatest stallion that ever stood in Ireland following a tough-as-teak racing career that ultimately delivered on the Northern Dancer strategy that started in the seventies for the O’Brien/Sangster/Magnier partnership. Vincent O’Brien also trained his year younger full-brother, Fairy King, way back in 1984/85 and the story of this horse’s early stallion career would be worthy of Brough Scott’s attention with or without the imprimateur of the Tipperary mafia.
The potted version is as follows: Vincent decided that Fairy King (who had only one lifetime start at the Phoenix Park that ended in injury) would stand at his daughter Jane’s incipient stud farm, Ballysheehan (just outside Cashel), much to the chagrin of the Coolmore maestro. To add insult to injury Fairy King became an immediate hit at stud and produced a colt named Pharaoh’s Delight in his first crop who scored at Royal Ascot in the Windsor Castle Stakes and also collected the 1989 Group One Phoenix Stakes for two-year-olds. This started the mother of all battles between Coolmore and the Fairy King backers with Coolmore ultimately gaining control of the stallion after an acrimonious battle. The final chapter in this saga was one of the most daring agricultural property deals ever done in Ireland with Ballysheehan Stud, based only ten miles from Coolmore, being sold to the Arabs and giving the Dubai Sheikhs a foothold in enemy territory, in whose possession it remains to this day. This imbroglio came to mind as I was studying the pedigree of James Barrett’s 3yo colt Big Whiskey (by Ad Valorem) who has been running respectably in maidens. Big Whiskey is out of a decent 7f-winning mare (by Sadler’s Wells) who is very closely related to Fairy King and she has produced four winners who all won over distances from one-mile up. Big Whiskey’s sire, Ad Valorem (won 6f G1 Middle Park at two and the 8f G1 Queen Anne at three) has not been a star and no longer resides in Coolmore as far as I can tell but he is capable of siring winners who seem to have a preference for 6f-7f. The trainer, Barrett, is interesting in that he was originally set up by a developer a few years back having spent a few years with Charlie Mann. His highest profile winner then was Barker who was very well campaigned to win the 2008 Pierse Hurdle and after taking a break for a few years with the presumable demise of his backer he is now back in action and the well-handled Lake George, who won four flat handicaps, has brought him back to the notice of the public. The form of Big Whiskey’s run at Leopardstown last August is well worth checking out and his recent effort at Gowran also held some promise as he had to be very busy early from a bad draw. You couldn’t say that he has been staying on in his races and it’s possible that 7f-8f will be his trip. |
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The final two Irish classics:
Irish Derby: I noted four horses but only one of them made my final cut. Andy Oliver’s First Cornerstone is pretty decent but exposed, John Oxx’s Hasanour is unraced and might be an obvious one for a maiden but I think his dam side is weak in recent generations. Orgilgo Bay (John C McConnell) has the type of profile I like from unfashionable quarters but his recent run at Gowran left a lot to be desired and I dislike the moniker “one of the best maidens in the country” . My only nomination is: Timikar (J Oxx): grandam is the brilliant Timarida who won the 1996 Champion Stakes and she has bred four pretty decent middle-distance performers including Timarwa (2004 Daylami mare and dam of Timikar) who won a Group 3 over 9 furlongs on her penultimate start before contesting the 2007 Breeders Cup turf race for mares and fillies-finished sixth. It’s a pedigree that could deliver. Timikar was fourth in a back-end Leopardstown maiden over 7f and it was a run brimful of promise and the third and fifth-placed horses have franked the form since. Irish Oaks: A certain caution and discernment is needed when assessing unraced or unexposed middle-distance entries for fillies but those that I like are: Kentucky Woman (T Stack) unraced: grandam is Kevin Prendergast's 1981 Irish 1000 Guineas winner Arctique Royale who bred six black-type performers (including a top-class broodmare Truly Special) and two other winners including Banquise who won over two miles and in turn bred five winners the best of which was Kentucky Woman’s full-brother, Robin Hood (by Galileo), who won over 7f and 10f for Aidan O’Brien. Kentucky Woman is owned by her breeder, the well-connected Paul Shanahan, another man one shouldn’t insult if one happens to be in Tipperary! Midnight Thoughts (D Weld) unraced and owned by Moyglare: a fine example of a fantastic Haefner page: the dam is the Danehill mare, Irresistible Jewel, who won the Group 2 Ribblesdale Stakes at Royal Ascot in 2002 and she has bred three winners of twelve races including Princess Highway who managed to emulate her mother’s achievement at Royal Ascot last season. The other two winning siblings won a Gladness (7f Group 3) and an Irish St. Leger. Tae Think Again (Tracey Collins) unraced: Collins makes fairly liberal entries for her principal patron Thistle Bloodstock but this entry might be worth noting for a few reasons. She is by the imperious Galileo, her dam won 8f-9f graded races in the States, she is a half-sister to the same owner’s Oor Jock (winner and stakes-placed over 5f) and both the dam and grandam count many winning siblings as half-brothers and sisters. One of Jimmy Long’s (Thistle Bloodstock owner) best horses was King Jock, a decent miler who is related to Tae Think Again. |
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Another stately and splendid post by R/A
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My initial list will probably hit thirty-to-follow; these three make twenty two.
Some more entries in early-closing Irish stakes that catch the eye: Coolibah (3yo Peintre Celebre filly) Charles O’Brien This juvenile-winning filly looks like being O’Brien’s principal flag-bearer this season and the trainer does have a nice record when it comes to racing well-bred fillies. His best four horses over the past few seasons have all been fillies (he is something of a similar-type set up to Wachman’s Longfield Stables) and, remarkably, all have been by the Banstead Manor stallion Dansili-the top stallion in the UK. He improved his late father’s Grecian Dancer to win four handicaps and then graduate to listed and group-winning status, Glowing won the G3 7f Brownstown Stakes, Laughing won the 11f listed Nijinsky Stakes and Bewitched was probably his best advertisement winning two handicaps, two listed contests followed by four Group 3 events. The last three fillies all raced in Sue Magnier’s colours. All four of these fillies improved with racing and I am hoping the same will be true for Coolibah. She collected a 7f Roscommon maiden last season prior to running placed in two black-type events over 7f and 9f and is by a Coolmore sire who produces good if not great middle distance horses. She is the third foal of an unraced Danehill dam and is closely related to the French Derby winner and successful stallion Darshaan. It is one of the most recognisable Aga Khan families. Vincent O’Brien bought the unraced dam for £300,000 in 2004 from Barronstown Bloodstock-a leading partner in the Coolmore empire. Coolibah’s two older siblings (both fillies by Invincible Spirit) were both sold as yearlings but were hopeless on the track and were picked up as potential broodmares for just £6,000 and £3,000 suggesting that track performance gained significant preference over a page laden with large black-type. The decision to retain Coolibah looks well justified and, as I write, she hold entries in four black-type events over the coming weeks including the Epsom Oaks. Joanna Morgan One of the sweetest winners I have backed was Morgan’s 16/1 Obama Rule who won a Curragh Group 3 in 2010. She was still a maiden up to that point but her entries in higher class events meant that the trainer was emitting signals as to the regard in which she held her prior to this win. She has two of her charges holding decent entries at present, one of which confirms positive noises from last season whilst the second horse’s entries look almost opportunistic and of the “tilting at windmills” variety. Roca Tumu won a one-mile maiden on heavy ground at Navan last October and Morgan was raving about him afterwards: “Roca Tumu is a very good horse. I didn´t want to run him as he needs quick ground but the owners insisted. He was also a bit short of work as he had a dirty nose a few weeks ago. He´s one to look forward to next year." A recent pipe-opener was interesting and I think he gave Billy Lee a fright when he gave him one solitary crack inside the last furlong as he wasn’t overly fancied (if you get my drift). An entry in the 10f Derby Trial will do for me. On the other hand the 5yo mare Negotiate’s form figures are the algebraic 400/06-8 yet she is proudly peering out at me from the pages of the calendar for entries in the Tattersalls Gold Cup (Group One) AND a Group 2 AND a Group 3. She does have form back in her 3yo days when Andy Oliver thought a bit about her and she is either a secret female version of Pegasus or her owners like a day out and rubbing shoulders with the glitterati (that’s me, not you!). It will be interesting to see how her season works out. Now, hopefully, a few of these sleepers will pay for a summer holiday on some far-flung atoll. If not, it will be the bucket and spade in Las Tramore with the proletariat. |
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Euphrasia (Joe Murphy)
Windsor Know is a son of Pivotal who won two Group 3’s for Goldophin (over 7f and 9f) and his liking for soft ground has been passed on to his progeny. He was a modest stallion retiree to the flat scene in Ireland in 2008 and stands at Rossenarra Stud. His first crop are now 4yo’s but there will be some hoping down in Kells, Co Kilkenny that Joe Murphy’s 3yo filly Euphrasia might be his first stakes winner from a relatively small number of runners. His best horse to date has been Flaxen Flare who, ironically, was successful in the Fred Winter at Cheltenham this year for Gordon Elliott. The McEnery’s might unwittingly have a national hunt prospect on their hands! A horse with a similar profile to Windsor Know is the former Irish National Stud’s Jeremy who also produced the brilliant Our Connor in his first crop and has recently moved home to Garryrichard Stud, a renowned home for jumping stallions. Euphrasia collected a 9f Curragh maiden on heavy ground last October and was a gallant runner up to a Bolger horse on her first start this season over 9.5f at Gowran. Connections expressed the hope last season that she might be up to winning at premier handicap or listed class this season and her first start suggests that she has trained on very well over the winter. A propos that Gowran race it is remarkable how tough these Bolger horses have been first time out and there was no passing them suggesting that many of them have been extremely fit for the current campaign. Bolger’s horses have not always made such an early impact (Tommy Stack has had an unusually quiet start) and it may well have something to do with ensuring that New Approach is primed for his Guineas exertions shortly. Euphrasia is out of a dual 6f, listed placed dam who is related to three black type winners (including a third in 8f G1 Racing Post Trophy) so it would be no major surprise if this cheaply-bought filly managed to improve her page. An entry in the 10f Blue Wind Stakes at Naas in May maybe her first test although I would prefer backing her in major handicaps, especially on soft ground. Ozeta (Niall Madden) “Under the radar” horses are an enjoyable conundrum to solve and this horse fits the bill. I had been closely following “Boots” Madden’s Shake The Bucket from his Dromahane 4yo maiden-winning days in 2011 and what Madden has done with this horse is testament to his skill as a horseman. The horse progressed to winning a Tramore maiden hurdle and a remarkable five times in Dundalk handicaps over a relatively modest 19lbs range. (Examples such as this would be one of my main platforms in arguing how some trainers get the best out of their charges and others fail miserably at times). The case for Ozeta: an extremely classy filly at three who won an 11f Longchamp listed race for Ellie Lelouche before graduating to hurdles and winning a 2m2f fillies listed hurdle prior to her being sold to JP who despatched her to Nicky Henderson. Her career with Henderson was a failure (one modest win in a Taunton juvenile hurdle) and she was sent to Boots last winter and promptly failed dismally in two handicap hurdles. Madden then scratched his head and looked for an alternative career and switched her back to the flat and on her first start she was a very promising second to Steps To Freedom on the all-weather at Dundalk-shades of Shake The Bucket emerging. This was followed by a fair sixth in the Lincoln before her last run-beaten out of sight over 14f at Leopardstown- forces one into a forgiving mode. However I’m long enough around to know that horses run well and badly at times and it is the bouncebackability that can often reward the backer’s courage. An entry in the same Blue wind Stakes mentioned above adds to the riddle that is currently Ozeta. Three runners in the past week and two of them progressing to handicap marks and remain of definite interest. It didn't take Big Whiskey long to confirm my regard for him and from a nibbled-at morning price of 9/1 he collected the concluding maiden at Naas yesterday at 13/2. Barrett took on Bolger, Weld and Sheikh Mohammed and backed his opinion accordingly so this goes down in my book as a good training achievement and puts the prospect of Tramore lengthening odds against already. |
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All quiet on this at the moment, no sign of Hazy, but probably turn up for one of those big field handicaps at the Curragh 2000gns w/end or Derby weekend, if he has a lot in hand...........
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The entries for the first 2yo Group One to be run in Ireland this year, the Keeneland Phoenix Stakes, were published recently and, as ever, make interesting reading at a time when only 16 of the 61 entries have run. The race will be run on 11th August 2013.
There are 61 entries and 18 youngsters are fillies (30%). Only three UK trainers are represented in the €200,000 contest (Channon, Johnston and Brittain with a total of eight entries in all) and I have no intention of following these as I don’t have the time to monitor UK flat racing closely. Some aspects that catch the eye: There are three entries for first-season sire, Sea The Stars, and all are fillies two of whom emanate from the sires’ original connections namely Oxx and Chrispopher Tsui; Bolger and Ballydoyle have 9 entries each (with 3 and 2 fillies respectively) followed by Prendergast (8-3f), Weld (7-2f) Andy Oliver (5-2f) and John Oxx with 4 (3f). Only 6 other trainers are represented by 11 entries. Oliver is probably something of a surprise with 5 entries and time will tell if the entries are all promising individuals or merely ensuring that his entries policy is (expensively) thorough although he did break into the big-time last season thanks to First Cornerstone and Sendmylovetorose. David Wachman has 2 entries and surprisingly for a trainer who normally has top-class fillies both are colts while Ger Lyons has three unraced colts two of whom are owned by the Qatari moneybags. Sire of the moment, New Approach, has two entries (both trained by the Master of Coolcullen with one owned by Sheikh Mo) whereas champion sire, Galileo, hasn’t a single entry, not even from Ballydoyle. I will post a listing of what I consider the best unraced prospects shortly. |
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Inkerman goes at Gowran this evening 17.50
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Inkerman non-runner, too much rain I'd guess, last night.
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For betting purposes I am only interested in the unraced horses mentioned below.
Ger Lyons: Fog Of War-colt by Azamour; £120,000 Tatts October-bought by David Redvers for Sheikh Al Thani (who owned Lyon’s Group one-winning filly Lightning Pearl). All four of this colt’s siblings to race have won the best of whom was Brian Meehan’s Brevity who won a listed race over 6f at two and, before a set back, was being mooted as a Cheveleley Park filly. The dam won over a mile and is a full-sister to the high class 2yo Daggers Drawn who was a modestly successful stallion. Azamour is a successful if not top-class sire. (Unraced) Sniper-colt by Dubawi - one of the best stallions around and home-bred by Al Thani. He’s a full-brother to 7f listed winner (at two) Titus Mills (was considered good enough to run in Racing Post trophy at two) and two other winners. The dam was unraced but she is out of a Group One winning 2yo who was second in a Guineas. (Unraced) Third Dimension-another colt by Dubawi (bought for an inexpensive £38,000 at Tatts October) and will represent Lyons partner-in-crime Sean Jones when he sees the track. He is the dam’s (by Cape Cross) second foal and his half-sister (Heading North, a filly by Teofilo) won over 7f at two for Richard Hannon and is likely to win again at three. The dam won over a mile on her second (and last) start and is closely related to the top class 6f/7f Group winner Rock City. Update: Third Dimension carried a lot of confidence (started at a very painful 7/4F) in a 6f maiden at Leopardstown last Monday but after jumping very slowly he couldn’t quicken at all when pressed 2f from home. Connections will have been disappointed and its long odds-on the ground will have been blamed. Needs to retrieve the situation after this. David Wachman: I have to say I am a little disappointed with Wachman’s entries as I was hoping for a pedigree or two that would grab my attention. Pleasant Bay-£45,000 colt by Bushranger who Wachman trained to be be a champion 2yo over 6f. Bushranger stands at Tally Ho where they are not in the least shy when it comes to covering large books of mares with their stallions. Bushranger is a first-season sire and whilst his stock have been popular at the sales he is off to a shaky enough start with just a couple of average winners from his first 16 starters. Pleasant Bay is a half-brother to 5 winners out of a Tally Ho-owned 7f winning mare. Sticking my neck out I would say this is a not a black-type page although he may well win a country maiden. Update: Pleasant Bay ran in the same maiden as Third Dimension and was an all day drifter out to 6/1. He was close enough if good enough 2f out but, to my eye, his head carriage looked a little “iffy” when pushed out and I won’t be rushing to back him next time out although Wachman’s horses invariably improve for the initial run. Wachman’s second entry, Sudirman (colt by Henrythenavigator; £200,000 purchase by Fitri Hay and John Magnier) also ran this week and was a disappointing last of five at Naas on Wednesday evening and was similarly ignored in the market. If these two colts represent the best of Wachman’s juvenile crop then he is in for a long season. T Stack After a very uncharacteristic slow start to the season Tommy Stack’s horses have hit a rich vein of form and he has had four winners from his last eight starters. I have to say that his Duke Of Marmalade filly, Alive Alive Oh, owned by JP’s daughter, looks absolutely top class and if I were to follow one horse throughout her 3yo career it would be this dual scorer. She’s quality if I have ever seen it and could be the star that her sire badly needs. Incidentally, the grapevine suggested that a new all-weather gallop was the reason for the Thomastown stuttering start to the year. Amaradian-filly by Cape Cross who cost the Stacks €100,000 at Goffs. She is a half-sister to four winners including two Group/Grade 2 winners over 6f and 8f. The dam won over 7f and is from a very well-known Moyglare line that includes such prolific winners as Refuse To Bend, Twilight Agenda and Media Puzzle. (Unraced) Treadstone: £52,000 Doncaster yearling by Myboycharlie. Stack trained the sire to be a champion 2yo and 2011 progeny represent his first northern hemisphere crop. Fans of Jason Bourne will be rooting for him to be good but his first start (8L 4/6 at Tipperary) in early May was a bit disappointing. However, I wouldn’t put you off following him for his next few runs as the Stack stable was mis-firing at the time and the ground was dreadful. Tommy Carmody Derulo-colt by Arakan who cost Johnny Murtagh €67,000 at Goffs. She was bred by John Grogan of Katla fame (triple 6f listed winner) and this mare just happens to be a half-sister to Derulo. The Dr Fong dam was average but she in turn is a half-sister to Wooton Bassett (Richard Fahey’s first Group One winner –over 7f) and Mister Hardy (won six races for Fahey). The Carmody/Murtgah/Tinkler combine are proving to be a very potent partnership and I’m pleased to see this “dark horse” entry. (Unraced) Beauty’s Forte: another Goffs purchase, this time another colt for €90,000 and by the very prolific sprinting sire Kyllachy. The unraced dam is a half-sister to the solid 7f Group three winner Trade Fair (Roger Charlton) and a listed winner over 12f. (Unraced). Carmody's most eye-catching pedigree is that held by Calorie, a Tinkler home-bred daughter of Sea The Stars out of Tommy Stack’s 5f black-type sprinter Sugar Free who was picked up as an innocent maiden by Tinkler for £540,000 at the end of her 3yo season. The second dam was also a high class sprinter and she was second in Group One Prix Morny (6f) at two. (Unraced) More to follow……………………………….. |