Flat Bulletin

Update:

Rochestown Stakes:
For the second time in two starts Cougar Ridge played up at the start and on this occasion refused to load and was withdrawn. I’d imagine he will have a few uncomfortable days in Longfield before he sees a racecourse again.

Tennessee Wildcat finished third (beaten over 7L) behind impressive winner Dawn Approach and was outclassed. He sported cheekpieces on this occasion having worn first-time-blinkers at the Curragh.

The Rochestown Stakes was traditionally run at Leopardstown and transferred to Cork in 2005. It then was awarded to Naas for the first time last year. Assuming that the race has attracted a similar type of contestant (in spite of the moveable venue) it has a very poor record (many of the front three either failed on their next three starts or never won again) when it’s participants line up future 2yo contests so I wouldn’t be getting excited about today’s also-rans. As I mentioned before, I can see Lyons trying to offload this horse after today. These remarks do not apply to today’s winner who could be exceptional and, just possibly, Naas is attracting a better type of winner as Lilbourne Lad scored last year and then won the Railway Stakes on his next start.

Listed Sprint:
I watched the fillies sprint with gritted teeth as True Verdict travelled like a dream and must have traded long odds-on when heading the favourite a furlong from home but he was ultimately out-battled by a clever Richard Hughes. This was one of those results where you can’t believe a horse hasn’t won and True Verdict will surely collect before very long provided the target is reasonable.

Liberating ran a nice race under restraint. She was thereabouts a furlong down and met with the slightest trouble in running but raced all the way to the line. I liked the run but, unfortunately, the record of third-place finishers subsequently is dreadful.

In the last 9 years this race produced winners Damson (Queen Mary), Rumplestiltskin (Moyglare), Youresothrilling (Cherry Hinton), Cuas Ghaire (Albany), Lillie Langtry (Debutante) while Miss Childrey, Brazilian Bride, Radharcnafarraige and Teolane failed to progress. You are likely to find this year’s winner contesting the Albany but it hasn’t been too reliable a guide with many failing to score there.

Fillies who were maidens coming into this race and subsequently finished second have generally won provided that they were targeted at maidens so that should be the plan for True Verdict.

5.20pm Fairyhouse: 6F EBF Fillies Maiden (Forecast going: good-firm, presumably with rain imminent)

Angela’s Dream-2010 f Chineur (Ger Lyons)

Cheap yearling at €15,000 and lots of winners close up. Dam was a winning sprinter (at 2 & 3-rated  82) and is half-sister to a miler (87) and a sprinter (83). Angela’s Dream is related to 5 previous winners, all from 6f-8f, and it is quite educational to see that many of them won on the all-weather.

Second on both starts and unlucky in running at Dundalk on debut over 5f. Ran behind the temperamental Cougar Ridge on latest start (good-soft) and will probably enjoy today’s good-firm better. On ratings she has quite a bit to find. I’d like to see her back on the polytrack given her recent family history and she is a very interesting possibility in that sphere. Niall McCullagh, successful in the Listed race for Lyons on Monday, takes the mount and looks the stable-selected. Run okay but don’t win!


Calissa-2010 Danehill Dancer f (Jessica Harrington)

See 25th & 27th May. I was quite taken with this filly’s first run and 9L 9th of 10 won’t have her in too many notebooks. To my eyes she ran very green and only raced in the last furlong when the race was well over. She’s got a lovely pedigree and I hope she’s not too busy tomorrow as there will be easier opportunities.

Downfall Of Paris-2010 f Exceed and Excel (D Wachman)

She cost just €30,000 as a yearling (first foal) which seems reasonable for her nice pedigree. The dam, by Halling, won over 7f for Dermot Weld and DOF in turn is a sibling to four winners of 26 races including top stayer Illustrious Blue (won Ascot’s 2m Sagaro Stakes), and two specialist 6f sprinters (By Night Shift and Oasis Dream). Man-of-the-moment Seamie Heffernan rides but she is probably just out for a spin unless the market says otherwise.

Fire And Flame-2010 f Henrythenavigator (D Wachman)

A $100,000 Keeneland purchase this filly has illustrious siblings in a 9f US Grade 1 winner A P Valentine (second in two legs of triple crown) and Ballydoyle’s Heart Shaped (by Storm Cat) who won the Marble Hill and had the best-possible placed form at the highest level (placed in a Breeders Cup juvenile and 4th in 1,000 Guineas). Typical of the type of filly found looking over the door in Longfield. With Billy Lee booked it suggests tomorrow is not the day.

Queen Of The Sand-2010f Footstepsinthesand (Ger Lyons)

Second foal; dam unraced half-sister to useful 5f-6f 2yo winner Bodyguard, later prolific winning miler in USA. Dam failed to sell for €1,900 in 2009 and she also produced a 2008 Peintre Celebre filly that never raced.

Gary Carroll booked and perhaps there’s a hint in the name for future reference although Lyons will do well to improve the page.

Slope-2010 f Acclamation (D Wachman)

Cost £70,000 at Doncaster last year; sixth foal; half-sister to 4 winners including 7f (at 2) and 1m winner Markazzi (RPR 98), 5f AW winner Mandy´s Hero (71), 5f 2yo winner Rowayton (87) and 5f (at 2 GB and in Hong Kong) winner Art Sale (95); dam Group-placed 5f-6f winner who is related to some useful sprinters.

Slope was beaten 9L into second in a soft-ground Curragh 6f maiden four weeks ago for which she received a rating of 67. The third horse (3L behind) looks a sub-70 colt. The booking of Wayne Lordan suggests he is expected to beat his two stable companions.

Summary: I am looking for Angela’s Dream and Calissa to confirm themselves notebook horses in different ways. Better ground will surely suit Slope but the Ballydoyle and Charles O’Brien representatives have better collateral form. If there’s money for Roseraie (some decent entries) she might get Prendergast off the mark with his juveniles.

These maidens are usually won by the form horses so I am looking for clues to the future in what is a long term project. In any event, unless you have a strong line on form or pedigree it wouldn't pay to get involved until a clearer picture emerges with my stable.

RA SUPERB THREAD AS ALWAYS FROM YOU KEEP UP THE GOOD WORK M8 AND GOOD LUCK

Race Analysis:
This was a decent contest and the winner, with nice big-race entries, got a nice ride from Chris Hayes to win on the line. She was backed into 14/1 (from 16's) just before the off so you needed to be paying attaention to the market. She should go on from this.

For future reference a low draw is a big help with first 2 drawn 1 & 5.

Slope: (2nd) well drawn in 5 and intentions were clear-be prominent all the way and see if you can win. Everything went to plan except for the finish when just headed. The RP have Wachman on the "cold list" after 20+ losers and 20+ days but this horse suggests nothing is wrong. Some support.

Angela's Dream: (5th) not inconvenienced by her 11 draw but did break badly and had to use up plenty of her early speed to get a position three off the rails and then was shunted back a little by a bullying Manning. I would guess Carroll said to Lyons afterwards that she had a tough race (boxed in and bumped) but did finish off her race. Still of interest after three nice runs. Supported in market.

Calissa: (3rd) badly drawn in 12 and rousted along early. She was hard work and still appeared very green but ran on well for pressure (three or four slaps) and this confirmed my good opinion of her first inexperienced start. Friendless.

Queen Of The Sand: (9th) fair dues to GML with this private acquisition as she looks okay on the evidence of her first start. Yet again, one of his outsiders attracted some support (33's -20's) and having broke poorly from 7 met some trouble in running but caught my eye finishing well up the straight. As both his horses were supported he obviously gave some encouragement to both connections.

Fire And Flame: (12th) broke very badly from good draw and was well behind fancied stable-companion after a furlong. Billy Lee rode the typical quiet race (even though his filly attracted a little support) and she ran on okay under hands and heels. I would expect improvement from this.

Downfall Of Paris: (14th) I didn't pick up on the fact that this filly's mother and four winning siblings were all early 2yo's so a run that saw her fading in the straight and being passed by more promising types was a little discouraging. Nonetheless as she wasn't at all fancied I must hold fire to see what he does with her next.

A brief word about Ayaar who ran 4th last Friday. History suggests this was a goodish run but it will take a couple of more runs before the penny will drop. He did encounter some bother during the race so I'll be watching closely.

Leopardstown 6.05pm 7f EBF maiden (forecast going: good with rain forecast)

Highest Office-2010 c Papal Bull (Ger Lyons)

Modest €6,000 yearling purchase; second foal, first foal Cataract (2009 f by Avonbridge) was a €6,500 acquisition and is a modest sprinter (placed twice over 5&6f-RPR 48) for John Weymes in UK; dam (2003 High Yield m) 5f debut winner at 2, also 6f winner at 3 for Richard Hannon-RPR 74, half-sister to a winner in the US, out of 2-3yo winner in US. The dam was sold out of training for just £2,500 carrying the Avonbridge foal.

This is the first 7f juvenile event run in Ireland this season and the sire (first runners of 2012 and a few unplaced runners so far) should be an influence for stamina although the dam’s family has speed. You would expect Highest Office to be nearer last than first on interpreting the page.

Stable second string and I’ll fall off my perch if there’s money for him.

Polished Rock-2010 c Rock Of Gibraltar (Jessica Harrington)

This horse is owned by senior steward, Roddy Ryan, so is unlikely to be a blatant non-trier today! He was bought for €22,000 at Goffs and comes from a long line of Moyglare Stud mares. He’s a fourth foal and the three siblings to perform before this have run with some distinction: Walk Beside Me (2006 Theatrical filly) won on her debut (at 3) at Dundalk over 11f (RPR 88) but who’s form trailed off thereafter; Late Day Sun (2008 Montjeu f) won over a mile and 10f (RPR 87) while the only gelding, Encrypted Message (2009 Dansili g) was second recently on his only start at Roscommon (10f-RPR 80). All three were trained by DK Weld for Moyglare.

The dam (by Dr Devious) was a US Grade 3 9f winner (stayed 1m3f) and is a half-sister to French 1m3f Listed winner Porticcio and at least three other winners who all won over stout distances and were quite good. It’s a nice family and getting access to a Moyglare line like this with plenty of winners came fairly cheap at just €22,000. DKW must be influencing the stewards-call the police!

Two of the siblings didn’t race until three-finished first and second-whilst the third filly managed to win on her second start at two. This looks a likely winner for Harrington over one-mile+ in time. Could be good enough to win at two as the sire does produce two-year-olds and the trainer is in form.

Wouldn’t surprise me to see money for him but O’Brien, Weld or Bolger win these races as a matter of course.

Rockabilly Riot (Ger Lyons) – see 27th May

Looking at Rockabilly Riot’s last run at the Curragh he looked very professional leading from the front and did show some class under Johnny Murtagh. However, at the business end, he was outclassed and he needs to do something today that has proved beyond him so far.

Murtgah seems to be deserting him in favour of an unraced Lynam colt (owner won with Roseraie last night).

It’s not a great race and if he’s going to win a maiden at a grade one track he'll probably not get such an equitable chance but before I would consider opposing the above-mentioned triumvirate I would like to see more solid achievements in the book even allowing for his fancy entries in the summer.

Going to be at least soft to heavy at Leop tonight RA.

I was looking at past trends punchestown:

run on gd, gd-firm past 8 years, soft-heavy prev two (still won by fancied horses)

Top 6 trainers have won last 10 runnings

O'Brien 3/10; Bolger 2/10; KP 2/8 plus DKW 1/10, DW 1/6 and Oxx 1/2

O'B, JSB & DKW 0ne runner each tonight (this last happened in '05 and Weld won with 6/4F).

Weld has by far poorest record of the three

4 favs have won; longest-priced winner just 6/1 (JSB)

Subsequent happenings:

4 of last 6 winners won on their next start 6/4, 4/1, 6/4 & 11/10

following placed horses (2nd & 3rd) on their subsequent starts not recommended-patchy results that just about broke even

Lyons has had 5 runners previously- his filly, Petite Cherie, won on her next start in 2006 but the record since has been poor. He did run The Reaper in 2010 and he subsequently won three races but you needed a lot of perseverance.

Neck on the block:
* perm three runners in exacta (hope weld's unfancied places)
* JSB to win as unplaced run for ballydoyle doesn't fit profile.

royal..any chance of your opinion on the last?stats, breeding all the usual...ha

RoyalAcademy i admire your approach to racing,it is the opposite to mine.Paddywhacker hates my approach but i do it by feel which leads to some spectacular failures,i take notes after each meeting but fail to collate them.To me the ground is one of the most important factors in a race and down the years i have noticed some sires are ground dependant,my present two sires to avoid on ground with cut are Footstepsinthesand and Teofilio can you come up with stats that can confirm or deny my theory.

I had some stats from last year Tony and just needed to update them:

This race has been fairly predictable in 8 runnings:

•APO’B: 4/6 (2 favs, 2 2nd favs); Oxx 3/9 1st, jt 4th & 2nd fav)
•Charles O’Brien has W,2nd (won h’cap on 5th start 8/1) & 3rd (won h’cap on 6th start at 7/2) from just 3 runners. No runner today.
•3/8 favs (all odds-on); 5 bf’s @ 5/4, 9/10, 8/11, 4/5 & 2/1, therefore not a race to take too short a price.
•3/8 second favs: 10/3, 13/8 & 3/1 (+37% ROI)
•2/8 winners won next time out @ 4/5 & 11/4
•Second horse to be backed if goes off short on next run in a maiden (4 wins from 5 favs )

Trends suggest El Salvador is the one as Oxx horse has run too many times. I wouldn't play at a short price however! (as always) and pedigree-wise Galileo v Nayef looks a mis-match!

Perhaps the horse to pay most attention to tonight will be Harrington’s Big Bad Bob gelding, Beyond Berlin. She introduced Sandymount Earl in this race in 2006 and he went on to win three cracking handicaps when he got his mark. You needed to be patient (including a 3yo hurdling career) but he won three at 14/1, 3/1 & 12/1.

She also ran a filly named Papadopoli in 2008 who placed three times afterwards (I wouldn’t have quite the same faith in a filly for handicapping) and last year ran It’s Freezing who was 2nd afterwards in a Down Royal maiden It’s Freezing is now with Seamus Fahey whose stable is freezing cold at present (38 losers in 138 days) but he’s more than able to win handicaps with sleepers. I’m very interested in this horse to win somewhere like Tramore in August although he's probably far better than that. Incidentally, he cost Fahey £32,000 at last year’s Tattersalls horses-in-training sale so there’s plenty of hope invested in him.

Similarly, Beyond Berlin is by a decent sire, possesses a decent pedigree and is for the shrubbery in the garden with the slow-maturing plants.

wildman ran your query through my database:

Footsteps: sample size 1,337 runners (won 153 11.44%)

going: good or better 124/1022 runners (12.13%) excluding "good" only i.e. some mention of hard or firm then slight increase to 14% win rate.

going: good-soft/yielding or worse 29/315 (9.21%)

if you exclude any reference to "good" then winning strike rate falls to 8.47%

More marked difference for Teofilo albeit a much smaller sample size (33W/226Ran - 14.6%)

good or better: 27/152 17.76%

any mention of soft etc: 6/74 8.11%

RA, you had mentioned the Lalor breed many times in your NH Bulletin.

A lovely article in the Indo today, in the " In The Stables" column with Liz Lalor.

She talks about her recent bad fall, and her recovery which is slowly coming along. She also mentions it was her second bad fall this season. Her family gets a good mention as does the Carigeen breed. Finally she said she is looking forward to being at the point to dance at the Silver Springs tomorrow night where every one lets their hair down but she is under strict orders that a glass of wine will be the extent of her indulgence due to her current state.

they're true corinthians soapp-the old amateur brigade these jocks. **** Lalor should win us a few quid next season. If I could only have a sip of wine I'd be staying at home!

I just wish I had more time to devote to NH racing as hardly a day passes from sept-april when winners from my 07/08 season to dec of last year crop up on my tracker-even as it is I find i'm far more interested in my racing when I concentrate on it.

I'm trying to find a solution to start it all again next September.

Delegate RA,.....

Newberry Hill (Jessica Harrington) see 27th May

2.20pm Curragh-6f EBF maiden (going now soft)

Newberry Hill was friendless but wasn’t beaten too far in eight….was my comment after this colt had debuted at the Curragh in May over 6f (good). The race was won by Ballydoyle’s War Front colt, Lines Of Battle, who is probably Royal Ascot bound. Jim Bolger’s Holy Roman Emperor colt, Leitir Mor, who started favourite and whose pedigree traces back to the 1981 Group 2 6f Lowther Stakes winner Circus Ring was beaten a head into second. The duo finished 2.25L clear of Wachman’s Probably but less that 4L covered the next six home and that included Newberry Hill in eighth.

Leitir Mor had previously finished second to Infanta Branca at Cork and the winner improved on her next start in the Marble Hill. RP ratings (87) suggest L Mor didn’t improve much, if at all, from his first run.

From an outside draw it was noticeable how Fran Berry was keen to eventually tack over to the stands rail and seemed to give the horse plenty of cover. What he certainly did not do was to give him a hard time and he coasted home without ever being put under any pressure.A curiosity that may in fact be a typographical error is that he received an RPR of 78 which is more than he would be entitled to in a sequential sense (circa 75) and I just don’t know if these ratings occasionally account for perceived ability and the actual result is ignored. (If you are unsure what I’m trying to get at here take a look at the racing post result).

Only Ballydoyle’s Count Of Limonade (10th) has run since and he improved for his debut by finishing second over 7f in Fairyhouse during the week. This improvement would have been normal given the source.

Jessica Harrington has said that she expects Newberry Hill to win his maiden and he will certainly improve from his tender first run. We’ve seen his stablemate Calissa (third during the week) improve substantially for her first run and I expect the same to happen tomorrow.

Harrington and Berry have a fairly serious record when it comes to 2yo’s and Curragh races with 7 winners and 12 places from just 34 runners. Theoretically, Newberry Hill is a 4/5 chance to be placed-if only life were so simple!

There are two obvious horses to lead the market in the previously-mentioned Leitir Mor and a Ballydoyle newcomer and because I didn’t get to post this last night I now see that Newberry Hill is the springer in the market and the place odds offered are probably likely to merely reflect previous statistics and not the 2/1 or better I fantasized about.

One final thought: all of Harrington’s previous winners at the Curragh either won first-time-out or came into their races with established form; Newberry Hill does not fit this trend and it suggests he needs to run second or third and then win.

My Ballydoyle "newcomer" wins today and my hunch that the Bolger favourite was slightly suspect as a non-improver proved to be true. Gale Force Ten had in fact pretty modest Dundalk third under his belt (RPR 75) and he proved good enough to win at 7/2.

Newberry Hill was clearly on a mission today, came in for sustained support and was a strong 11/4 second favourite. He raced more prominently but two furlongs down he wasn't going to win and was a well-beaten fourth. Ordinarily this might suggest he's not much better than this but I failed to research one significant factor in my earlier deliberations and that was the ground conditions for the sire. Kheleyf's win three-times more regularly on going mentioning "firm" than they do with "soft or heavy" so I think we can mark today's performance up a couple of notches and wait in anticipation for the next run on better ground.

FYI Royal Academy, Newberry Hill was coltish before the race today.

Wed. 13th June: Fairyhouse 6.00pm 6f auction maiden (good-yielding currently)

Three runners-all from Glenburnie:

Washboard Sam-2010 g Kodiac (Sean Jones/Ger Lyons)

Bought by Lyons for €18,000 at Fairyhouse last September; sixth foal, closely related to Danish 6f-9f winner Irish Smile (2005 f by Chevalier) & 2m4f hurdle winner Viaduct Bud for Terence O’Brien, half-brother to Italian 7f winner Mr Kennedy (2004 c by Cape Cross). The dam, Catch A Smile (1999 by Silver Hawk), was unraced (sold unraced by Moyglare at three for €22,000) and is a half-sister to US Grade 3 1m 2yo winner Successful Outlook, out of 6f 2yo winner for Weld & Moyglare. This is a steady Moyglare family-the third dam bred ten winners-but Washboard Sam will need to be decent to be winning on the flat in Ireland.

The sire stands in Tally Ho and has a reasonable strike rate from two seasons of runners but all indications point to a quiet run tomorrow for Washboard Sam with the apprentice booked. He’s already been gelded and wears a tongue-tie first time out.

Lightnin Hopkins-2010 c Kodiac (Sean Jones/Ger Lyons)

Cost Lyons £20,000 guineas at Tatts. October; second foal, first foal is by Diamond Green but never ran in Italy; dam (2004 by Golan) was unraced half-sister to Cork 5f 2yo winner Declan´s Warrior (for D Weld) out of maiden (placed over 5f) half-sister (by Danehill) to May Hill/French Oaks winner Rafha (dam of Invincible Spirit) and smart 1m-1m3f winner Chiang Mai(won 11f Blandford Stakes for Ballydoyle).

The page has no shortage of black type but winners from the dam and second dam are hard to find. It is an indication of what was thought of Lightnin Hopkins dam when she went through the ring as a maiden three-year-old for just £3,500 in 2007 so securing 20k for the yearling was quite an achievement.

Gary Carroll is booked to ride and with Murtagh on Abbey Vale it’s likely that this is the second string but they often back more than one from the yard.

Lyons has yet to train a winner by the stallion Kodiac but the 3yo, That Boy David, has been placed three times from four starts for him-all as a three-year-old. I speculate that the horse must have been showing a lot at home at two for him to invest in two further yearlings by the same sire last year. Kodiac’s best progeny have been early 2yo’s and this is probably a punt to secure a nice sprinter for Hong Kong or similar.

Abbey Vale-2010 c Moss Vale (Vincent Gaul/Ger Lyons)

Vincent Gaul has been a patron of Lyons since the trainer concentrated on the flat back in 2003. Their first horse, An Tadh, cost just twenty grand and he won 6 races for them including the Group 3 Ballycorus Stakes at Leopardstown-he also won twice at two. Lyons has also trained at least four other horses to win 8 races for him and it seems to be a very successful partnership. Their budget for yearlings seems to be in the €20,000-€60,000 range generally.

Abbey Vale, a second foal, looks to be one of their cheaper purchases at £15,000 (Doncaster 2011) and he is a half-brother to an Acclamation filly who was placed twice (RPR 68) over 7f for Marco Botti in 2011. The dam (2003 by In The Wings) was unraced and is a half-sister to very useful middle-distance performers Esyoueffcee (listed winner for Mick Easterby) and Manorson (dual 10f winner for David Arbuthnot-RPR 105) out of 1m winning half-sister to top-class filly All At Sea (Group 1 mile winner/10f G3 winner) so the page looks very good and Abbey Vale, at this juncture, looks well bought allowing for whatever faults he had at the time.

Kodiac was a first season sire in 2010 whilst Moss Vale’s runners debuted in 2011. Kodiac would be the more promising stallion of the two which might also account for the modest cost of Abbey Vale although its worth pointing out that their overall strike-rate is similar.

Johnny Murtagh has ridden one winner and three placed horses from just 5 2yo’s he has ridden for Lyons at Fairyhouse in the past so it’s a statistic that is hard to ignore. Also, Lyons is not generally known for winning debutants but East Chestnut and Berg Bahn have scored at this track on their debuts (from 14 2yo debutants).

That should be a most interesting betting heat tomorrow evening RA, and will be watching..........
I like it when I see a maiden as the closing race on a card,as I feel punters trying to get out have some kinda chance, as against trying to find the winner of a 15 runner handicap, where so many can hold chances. This is very often the case esp. Windsor summer meets and I feel the books have an input in the way these card are made up....
The final race tomorrow night, a maiden, sees the top stables do battle ,(O'Brien,Oxx, Wachman,KP)and one that I will be keeping an eye on,the Reggie Roberts trained Mayameen with J Egan steering will be interesting,  17days since it last ran and egan had it all over the place that time,inside-outside,and though well beaten ran with promise, note it seems to have cost a ton of money at one stage, so might be aiming at handicaps in any event but keep an eye on it

Result and analysis:

There was no noticeable market support for any of the Lyons’ trio and the result will have pleased him I imagine. Run in a heavy downpour on ground that was good-yielding the two Kodiac’s ran very well to finish second and third behind another O’Reilly winner. Eddie Lynam’s filly stepped up considerably from her debut run (9L sixth) at Navan in a race won by Cristiforo Colombo. This maiden was regarded as a strong heat at the time and events may prove this to be true. It featured Lyons’ Rockabilly Riot (5th) and Wachman’s Horizon Sky (4th).

I will leave it to Justin O’Hanlon’s report to summarise the race: Two of the three Ger Lyons newcomers showed plenty of promise and will certainly progress. Lightnin Hopkins kept on very well from mid-division in the straight and saw out his race very well. He´ll get an extra furlong without any difficulty. The real eyecatcher though was supposed stable third string Washboard Sam as he did everything wrong. He missed the break for starters, then when asked for an effort in the straight he ran very green and lost a lot of momentum by jinking markedly to his left around a furlong out. Being beaten two lengths was a more than fair effortin the circumstances. Both will win races.

Abbey Vale was outpaced from halfway and failed to pick up like her two stable companions.

14-June Leopardstown: 4.50pm 7f EBF Fillies Maiden (good)

Hard Walnut-2010 f by Cape Cross ex Yaria (Ger Lyons)

The Qatari Pearl Bloodstock connections are likely to be repaying the Group One dividend to Lyons for some time and Hard Walnut is another to race in the colours of the Royal Family. She “only” cost £42,000 at Doncaster last year and already her only older sibling, 2008 filly by Hurricane Run, is a dual winner over one mile (RPR 85). She was also placed at two.

The dam and grandam, Yaria (2002 by Danehill) and Yara (1997 Sri Pekan) are familiar winning fillies with Yaria winning over 6f & 7f for Kevin Prendergast & Chryss O’Reilly (RPR 97) and Yara was second in the 7f Phoenix Stakes in 1999 for the same connections. There’s plenty of winners on the page over trips of 8f-10f. Yaria was sold for £70,000 in November 2006.

Hard Walnut has already had one run when finishing 8L 5th of 12 over 6f at Naas (g-y) in mid-May. The front four finished well clear of Lyons’ filly in 5th and Ballydoyle’s Delight in 6th. Delight has since run 2nd in a Curragh maiden (confirming the usual improvement for a run) and two of the front four have gone on to post better ratings so, all in all, a decent maiden.

Tomorrow’s race features a fairly predictable cast from the bigger stables, including Oxx’s first 2yo runner, so it would be a complete guess to suggest that Hard Walnut could be thereabouts. The purpose of this thread is to assemble a book of evidence to enhance punting confidence when I consider most factors are in my favour - if that day ever arrives! The tissue prices have Delight favourite from a few newcomers which adds some mystery to the conundrum as Hard Walnut finished in front of her on her only outing.

I can’t get enthused about Rockabilly Riot (Ger Lyons) in the 5.20pm 7F colts maiden. He’s obviously well thought of at home as there has been money for him in his two starts to date and he holds fancy entries in the Phoenix and Champion Stakes. I wrote about him previously on 27th May at the Curragh but I thought he faded tamely enough under Johnny Murtagh when he set out to win from the front. If I was to back him to redeem his reputation somewhat it wouldn’t be at a Grade 1 track but a lesser assignment.

Yesterday:
Hard Walnut ran a respectable race behind the first 2yo runner (and winner) for Oxx last night. The obvious horse to take from the race was Eddie Lynam's Reglisse who did the decent thing and didn't threaten here more fancied co-owned favourite,Nurpur, until the race was over and there should be a nice race or two to be won with her.

I think we can assume that soft ground would be against virtually all the Lyons' runners and this run predicted to me that Hard Walnut will be winning over further in accordance with her sire and pedigree. In fact I could see myself getting a little animated if she found the right trip and opportunity.

Rockabilly Riot ran an honest race to be fourth and took a while to settle. He was outclassed by 7L winner Theatre who attracted a small fortune and improved in leaps and bounds from his debut when he was a neck behind Rockabilly Riot. Hard to know where they will go with him now.(The winning performance was another reason to like Newberry Hill's run but he seems to have other things on his mind at present). 

Today:
I'm not too interested in Tennessee Wildcat today (Navan 5.25pm extended 5f) as his last few runs in blinkers and cheekpieces haven't been great. The ground is currently soft with more rain forecast and this is likely to inconvenience him.

The defection of Cougar Ridge leaves the door open for the Ballydoyle newcomer but, in any event, Tennessee Wildcat is closely matched on form with Katchy Lady and Versilia Gal with Prendergast's filly holding a slight edge based on Marble Hill running.

Lyons has announced that Lightening Pearl has been retired after her return to sprinting last night failed to rejunenate her. The other nugget that I have garnered was his pleasure at how the two Fairyhouse Kodiac's ran as it suggested he has nicer material at home.

There was on-course support yet again for Tennessee Wildcat and he looked to be just about doing enough 100 yards from home only to be swamped by three runners close to the line. He looks a sprinter on this showing and would have won over five. Lyons was bullish in the Post this morning and he has an obvious fondness for the horse.

Who are these people who support the Lyons' runners as they leave their dough behind with alarming regularity?

As I was researching the coming weekend's runners earlier it struck me that this thread is too slow and ponderous. I find myself noting trends, eyecatchers and other points of interest but there's too much guesswork involved with the lightly-raced juveniles. I am changing tack somewhat and whereas I will keep an eye on the three designated trainers' runners I think for the post to be of more immediate value and hopefully benefit I will revert to what I think I can do best: find a few horses that should be worth following based on my stats, research and instinct.

I have managed to "mention" the winner or horses running well on a lot of my previous threads and I will try to see if I can put this knowledge to better use in future. The most recent example is Versilia Gal and Katchy Lady finishing 1-2 for a 40/1 exacta so I'll have to try to be a little cleverer.

17-Jun Cork 3.15pm 5f Sprint Stakes (soft-heavy)

Ever since John Murphy’s roan filly, Gossamer Seed (2008 Choisir), won her maiden at Cork over 5f as a 2yo he has always held her in high regard. Even back then he felt this daughter of Choisir needed a step up in trip and she has since won twice over 7f at Sligo as a 3yo and, more recently, the Athasi Stakes at the Curragh. She shows a marked preference for soft ground and was very impressive in the Athasi Stakes. She was some certainty for that Sligo handicap (won by 6L) off a mark of just 80 and is now officially rated 104.

She has clearly improved from three to four and her only run since the Athasi was in the 6f Ballyogan Stakes at Leopardstown as recently as Thursday where she ran third to Wachman’s Fire Lily. She looked destined to be one of the backmarkers on the run for home when passed by a number of horses but she then stayed on again impressively to get up for third on the line. I was very impressed with the run.

Murphy generally isn’t a trainer I would follow as he has a deplorable strike-rate of just 3.8% for the past five years but he has handled a good filly in the past in the shape of Pout who won a Curragh Group 2 in 2006.

Typical of Murphy, he is racing Gossamer Seed just three days after her Leopardstown exertions over a trip that looks too short now. It is actually October 2010 since she last ran over the minimum trip so she is running more in hope than anticipation.

It’s hard to see beyond Inxile and Bordlescott in this race tomorrow as they have by some way the best sprinting form in the race.

Gossamer Seed is in the 7f Buckingham Palace Handicap on Friday next and this would have been my target with the forecast soft ground. She is also in the 7f Group 3 Brownstown Stakes at Fairyhouse in early July and this fillies and mares only event would also look an attractive option.

There was a time that racing publications would carry some fairly dubious advertisements offering racing information as being 100% bombproof.  This was in the days of the old Sporting Chronicle Handicap Book when systems were the order of the day and you were offered untold riches for a pony (sterling of course). These unscrupulous latter-day snake oil salesmen preyed on callow youngsters like myself and names like the “Charles Dawson Gold System” and daily winners from “The Cream” always caught your eye.. Well folks, I GOTTA HORSE!!

This information is GUARANTEED 100% successful and if you had followed my advice faithfully for the past four years you would be 1300% ahead on investment and probably contemplating early retirement. Interested? Please send a self addressed special delivery envelope to…….

3.50pm Cork 12 Noblesse Stakes (Group 3) going:heavy

This race started life as a 3yo only contest run at Naas in 2003 and became an all-aged stake the following year. It was subsequently transferred to Cork in 2005 and has remained there ever since.

The race caught my eye as it features a horse from Weld’s that is likely to be a short-priced favourite but I would be reluctant to be too exuberant about him as he has to defy one very significant trend from all nine runnings of this race: every winner of this race had at least one outing in the current season and most winners had run in some of the decent middle distance contests like the Ballysax, Blue Wind, Gallinule and even the Oaks itself.

Of those with runners this year, Weld (2 wins and 3 seconds), Oxx (7 places) and Ballydoyle (1 win and 2 places) dominate and if I have to pick two against the field it would be the Ballydoyle duo Betterbetterbetter (ran in the Oaks) and Soon (second in the Gallinule).

17-Jun Cork 2.40pm 6f 3yo extended handicap (soft-heavy)

I thought Red Sea Poll ran a nice ran at the Curragh last weekend over 6f on soft ground. She seems to have been dropped 5lbs for that effort and is now back on a mark of just 54 from which she should be capable of winning. Her best run was second in a 20-runner Naas sprint handicap on soft ground last month so she has shown glimpses of ability.

I thought she ran on nicely at the Curragh as she had to go wide to try to mount a challenge and wasn’t beaten too far in sixth. Her low weight should be an advantage in the heavy ground. 14/1 looks pretty generous.

Oh yes!, and the horse……………………

If you backed the horse that finished second in today’s Noblesse Stakes over the last four runnings on its next start you would have been rewarded with winners at 9/2, 3/1, 4/5 and 5/1. Sometimes it’s easy.

P.S. I don't think for a moment that most of today's phone-scam tipsters are not cut from the same cloth as my old friends in the handicap book.

Great thread, RA. FYI, Red Sea Poll was 5 pound out of the handicap last time out, thus hasn't been dropped 5 pound for today. In fact, she is actually 4 pound out of the handicap today, so effectively runs off 58.

This is truely an excellent thread, great stuff RA, keep up the good work. I thought Private Alexander showed great battling qualities the other evening at Limerick and I reckon she might be above average. Abbey Vale improved considerably and looks sure to win a maiden over a touch further.

As redbait pointed out Red Sea Poll was unfavourably treated at the weights for the second successive occasion on Sunday and the extra 4lbs possibly cost him a place-beaten 1L by third home. I also missed the fact he was wearing blinkers for the first time (not my finest analysis pre-race by a long chalk) and they probably helped. He needed to be stoked along from halfway but ran ok. It’s always difficult to know when to follow and when to discard these handicappers but the “rule” of following for three runs and continuing to follow if they win (for at least two runs) isn’t a bad approach. If connections can find a race in which he carries his true weight (shouldn’t be raised for Sunday) and put a claimer (Dawson or Gray) on board he would suddenly have a 10lb+ swing.

Gossamer Seed ran another fine race to be third in the sprint. I felt a little sorry for her because she ran her heart out and got an awful lot of encouragement from the saddle over a trip that looks too short nowadays. The heavy ground probably gave her an advantage against a few in the field but it was not to be. In my experience horses that win over 7f tend to be specialists over that trip so that has to be the plan for the season. I'm saving up for her.

Betterbetterbetter finished second in the fillies stake and now has the onerous task of winning her next start to continue a five-year 100% record of the runner-up winning their next start. I hope its a decent contest to ensure a good price.

I didn’t bother to preview the juvenile races at Limerick last Saturday as the likely prices were unattractive. The fillies auction maiden was a match between Wachman’s Royal Empress and Lyons’ Private Alexander. There was a lot of money for Lyons’ winner and she could be quite good. The Wachman filly (and jockey) attracted a lot of vitriol afterwards when failing to see out the 7f trip and only the future will tell whether it was stamina or faintheartedness that caused the loss.

Wachman’s Probably was odds-on to win the colts maiden and he won in some style. Lyons’ Abbey Vale had been down the field just three days earlier at Fairyhouse and he was the real notebook horse for me here and I hope he might pick up a nice nursery when these get going. Harrington’s Newberry Hill was a little disappointing in fourth.

Today:

There is a competitive 2yo race in Sligo tonight and I think it will likely see some money for the in-form Lyons yard and Toccata Blue. Although only fourth of four on his last start at Dundalk the three in front (Dylanbaru, Versilia Gal and Einsteins Folly) have all franked the form and he looks to have a good chance.  Toccata Blue is the first foal out of an unraced mare who cost €160,000 as a yearling so there’s plenty on the page to suggest he could be useful.  Hard to see him not being in the front three although I wonder is an early-morning drift ominous?

The nicely-named Fontana Di Trevi was an obvious eye-catcher from her first start at Navan 10 days ago and I’d prefer to see her run prominently without being too obvious.

I occasionally mention threads that impress me here and GEORGE.B’s “Notebook Selections” on the main racing forum is a case in point. It reminds me of a passing acquaintance who claims to be a professional punter and seems to have a connection with the Nick Mordin’s  methodologies. I once met him in a PP shop with a list of horses as long as your arm to back that afternoon and I was very underwhelmed by the whole experience whereby you are shovelling cash over the counter on a regular basis and it called for a particular temperament. I would prefer to be far, far more selective in my approach, punt when you think you have virtually every angle covered and don’t forget to bless your self passing the church or light a joss-stock to Buddha for good measure.

GEORGE.B is doing a tremendous job of illustrating one method of how to win at the game and his winning strike-rate is just 11% for winners and 34% for placed horses since he started in early April. I’m not sure what his return on investment is but I DO know that what he does must be a very time-consuming process. He obviously follows all UK flat racing and follows his notebookers through thick and thin following certain rules and, occasionally, this happens (posted yesterday):

ffs, I'd selected White Oak Lady the last 3 times she'd run after catching my eye at Bath.

As soon as I give her the sack, in she goes at 20s.

Fecking hell, tames lions this game, as they say

How often I have “tweaked” my own rules in hindsight to “improve” my return on any system I am researching-taming lions indeed!

It would be virtually impossible to follow this thread unless you had a lot of time on your hands and losing recommended early prices will always be frustrating. In my view, there’s nothing like fancying a long odds shot, watching the market ignore its chances and picking up huge odds here from benefactors. They don’t roll around too often but when they do, they’re memorable. Hence I back very few horses and find its all the more enjoyable for that.

Watching the 2yo in Sligo last night got me thinking about such matters. A reasonably competitive contest at a gaff track, the highest-profile stables involved, doubts in my mind that I didn’t understand any draw bias, a very confusing market and you are left with the distinct impression that many races are best left alone.

Andy Oliver’s winner attracts a little morning support and is also backed on course from 6/1 to 9/2. He manages to beat the 11/4 favourite (from 7/2 on course; 5’s in the morning) and, oh yes!, the favourite is also trained by Andy Oliver. Ger Lyons’ horse, Toccata Blue, runs nothing like the form that might have been expected and you come to the conclusion “he wouldn’t be sending it to Sligo if it’s any good”. It didn't escape my attention that on a line through Einstein's Folly (won the maiden in which the winner had his only previous start) then Toccata Blue was a disappointment.

Like I say, I’m very good with twenty-twenty vision.

By the way as I didn't get too many self-addressed envelopes with the twenty five quid (sterling!) in advance of the Noblesse Stakes I have decided that Betterbetterbetter will be a pony "odds to first show" to clients, patrons and cynics when she wins next time out.

Royal Academy you had your own White Oak Lady in Boss Croaker,you mentioned this lad as one to watch in a few maiden hurdles and he then was backed in a handicap hurdle at Cork and won at 14/1 available at much higher here.
Sorry for bringing back that sore memory but ut shows there is nothing wrong with your eye.

Thanks wildman: I haven't seen a better source of winners in the jumping game than following the winning point maidens. But its the closest possible attention to detail when they start running is the hard part. Even with every technological tool available to man it would still take a lot of time to study, research and follow your hunches. As to how you tackle a puzzle such as that presented by, say, this week's Wokingham, the mind boggles!

There are two horse going over from my area,Gordon Lord Byron and Maarek and i can`t even split them.

5.55pm Leopardstown – 6f EBF maiden (forecast going: good-soft)

It’s funny how you can have a mistaken understanding of a situation: I was under the distinct impression that Pearl Bloodstock had significantly upped the ante when they gave Ger Lyons Lightening Pearl to train in 2011 i.e. that she was by some way the most expensive yearling he has handled for them and proved himself accordingly with the extra responsibility when winning the G1 Chevely Park at two.

Not so! Lightening Pearl was a relatively expensive €125,000 Goffs purchase and he certainly got the best out of her before she failed to train on at three. In fact the most expensive horse he has trained for them was a $420,000 2009 Tapit filly named Qatar’s Pearl who recouped just €2,500 of her cost as a 2yo-she seems to have been retired to stud after just two starts at two-perhaps not.

I do find these American filly purchases interesting in that the pedigrees have plenty of ink on the page but I’d much rather see a more familiar (European) racing family and pedigree before shelling out close to half a million dollars if they are to run over here.

So far Lyons has handled 9 two-year-olds for these connections (including Hard Walnut) and has managed to win with three of them.

This is by way of introduction to Pearl Music, an Oratorio colt bought by Pearl’s principal agent, David Redvers, for €42,000 last autumn at Goffs. He’s the fifth foal out of an unraced Ashkalani mare and is a sibling to two winning fillies including an Italian listed placed winner. It’s very much an Aga Khan family and plenty of stayers on the page.

Pearl Music is worth keeping an eye on but he doesn’t jump off the page tomorrow. The horses Lyons has handled costing less than one hundred thousand have not tended to win for him but this is probably just coincidence from a small sample.

Other news:I see that one of the well-entered two-year-olds, Discernable, trained by Mark Johnston and mentioned in a previous post won first-time-out at Kempton tonight at 11/4.

Cay Verde gets a chance to confirm the Mick Channon trend that I mentioned in late May in connection with his runners in the Marble Hill. Hopefully he can win the Norfolk Stakes tomorrow.

Finally I am pleased to see JJM has given his classy filly an entry for the handicap on Friday so I hope Ascot gets plenty of rain before 5.35pm on Friday. He trained Goldplated to win at Sligo last night just two days after she ran unplaced in teh Noblesse Stakes!

Allaboard tomorrow RA with Betterbetterbetter, decent bit of opposition so should be ok price wise.......... as I dont have any fivers is it ok to send 10x3 sterling (of course)

Lightnin Hopkins improved for its initial run at Fairyhouse. Lyons thinks he is listed class.

I posted threads on 30th and 31st May last year that identified interesting entries for unraced 2yo's that might be worth keeping an eye on.

By my calculation 23 horses were named with 6 of them winning on their debuts at prices Discernable 11/4, What Style 5/1, Mooqtar 5/1, Fighter Squadron 12/1, Hint Of A Tint 5/1 and Janoub Nibras @ 2/9 to give a very healthy profit to LSP. Its a tried and tested formula and doesn't give an over-abundance of horses to follow each season.

Four of the youngsters never ran and they are: More Than Amazing, Secret Session, Inkerman and Maktoob. Of those that have run I note that Hint Of A Tint is Wachman's only classic entry and Andy Oliver will surely wrest a win or two from Tiger Stripes. Bolger's Bunreacht is probably worth an interest too.

I will post a few nominations for the current year when the early closing races are filled.

Royal A

Wachman has an unnamed 2 yr old as far as I know, by henry the nav out of a gone west mare,bought at keeneland has it rang any alarm bells on your research

Wachman only enters for prestigious races based on homework so his early entries are usually a strong hint. Inkerman a case in point. Even tho he trains for the same guys as Aidan he takes a more intelligent approach to race planning.

I will attempt to find a few likely future winners now that the flat season proper is back with us:

Bill Farrell spent his time in Coolmore and Ballydoyle before taking up the role as stud manager for Alan Dargan’s Eyrefield Stud on the Curragh. He has been the stud’s private trainer since 2000 and succeeded the likes of Neil McGrath and David Hanley who trained for Dargan’s father, Michael, former chairman of Goffs.

The stud races horses for just a few private owners and Farrell’s record has been impressive with a couple of standout features. To judge by his handling of handicappers he is extremely shrewd and of 26 winners since he started training no less than 24 of them have been in handicaps with 13 of them coming at his local track. He also has a decent record at Leopardstown and Naas. Some of the best horses he has handled include Glocca Morra (improved from winning mark of 50 to 93), Ballivor (73-82), Sedna (72-79), Sharisse (66-89) and, mostly recent, the four-time scorer Man Of Erin (47-77) whose winning days are not yet over I suspect.

Jockey-wise, J Murtagh is the “go to” pilot with a 30% strike-rate although both Padraig Beggy and apprentice Marc Monaghan also have good records for Farrell.

It was surely significant that his 4yo Holy Roman Emperor filly, So Devoted, attracted support to win the 6f maiden at the Curragh on the opening day at the Curragh last week and although she didn’t run up to expectations we have been informed that she is quite highly thought of at home. A staying-on fourth at Gowran last September was quite eye-catching and I think she will be of interest in handicaps from here on in. Her mark should leave lots of scope to improve too.

The Dargan’s picked up the mare (carrying a Be My Guest foal and she is an unraced half-sister to Anshan who was third in a Guineas) in 1998 for £40,000 and she has, so far, produced three winners from four runners excluding So Devoted-the exception being the afore-mentioned BMG colt. The three winning siblings all managed to win over 6f at two but needed longer trips as three-year-olds. It can also be said that the filly’s sire is best with runners from 7f+ so, in hindsight, trying to win over 6f might have been a tad optimistic.

When John O’Byrne bought Hazy Days for £70,000 at Tattersalls as a yearling for J P McManus in 2011 it would not be surprising if the grandam’s half-brother, Celestial Halo, caught his eye. From a very decent flat pedigree this 2004 gelding (by Galileo) won the 2008 Triumph Hurdle for Paul Nicholls and was recently second to Solwhit in the World Hurdle. Hazy Days was sent to David Wachman to train and Wachman’s best horse for McManus over the past few years was Lethal Weapon who was well backed to win two 10f handicaps in 2008 before scoring on his first three starts over hurdles for Christy Roche. Following a disappointing run in the 2009 Triumph Hurdle Lethal Weapon was never the same horse afterwards.

Hazy Days (by Green Desert) is a half-brother to two winners including the top-class filly, Dubawi Heights, who is a dual Grade One winner in the States (over 9f and 10f) and she made $1.6m when sold at public auction in late 2011. He is also a half-brother to a 100-rated winner over 6f and 8f and his very modest full brother was placed over 6f on a couple of occasions. His dam also won over 6f (failed to train on at three) and she is a half-sister to five other winning fillies the best of which was Tante Rose who won the 7f Fred Darling in 2003 (well-establish 7f Guineas trial) before winning the 2004 Haydock Sprint Cup (Group One over 6f) in 2004.

All in all, a lovely pedigree.

Hazy Days ran at Cork on Saturday in a 6f maiden and, not for the first time, she wasn’t given a very hard race. I would encourage anyone to watch her only three runs to date closely and I think you will agree that this looks a horse with oodles of talent and is likely to receive a very winnable handicap mark over the coming weeks now that the third maiden run has been completed. More than likely he will be winning at short prices but his chance looks very obvious to me. My guess is that his optimum trip will be perhaps over a mile and it will be educational to watch how his trainer campaigns him. Wachman is an excellent handler of three-year-old handicappers and has already score with Seussical in this sphere this season.

So Devoted runs today on the Curragh, 7f maiden, and when I get a chance later I must have a look at Hazy Days runs...........

So Devoted ran a nice race, beaten just over eight lengths, AP won it with Moth.SD close up behind horses and all happy with todays work
                                             out.

Watched Hazy Days and a good spot by RA..........I dont mind taking a short price after you now jaypea

Very well written and informed views on the two horses Royal Academy, So Devoted wasn,t fancied today at 33/1 and while the winner Moth was impressive(travelled and quickened well from off the pace) So Devoted finished near enough to the runner up after being slightly keen early.
Mightn,t have mattered in the end but she was a bit boxed at a crucial stage and had no where to go.
Looked at Hazy Days debut and being honest wasn,t too impressed as it was ridden from a long way out,however his other two runs were quite eyecatching and can only agree the horse has talent. Good stuff RA.

Pat Martin is based in Slane and enjoyed his best season last year since his best-ever winning total in 2005 (17) when winning 13 races and an overall strike-rate of 15%. Ten horses contributed to the total of which exactly half were owned by his father-in-law Tom Brennan.

Tom Brennan is a very colourful character and made his money in construction and features quite prominently in the Flood Tribunal having rubbed shoulders with plenty of luminaries in his day. Jim Bolger and, to a lesser extent, Aidan O’Brien trained for him in the late 80’s/early 90’s before the marriage of his daughter to Martin ensured that a racing partnership was forged that has been quite successful over the past twenty years. Brennan operates from Hilltown Stud in Clonsilla under the banner Holborn Trust Co and the best horses he has produced would include the stallion Danetime and David Wachman’s He’s A Decoy both of which he sold as a foal and yearling respectively.

Many of the horses that Martin trains for him would be household names such as Indiana Gal (won 6 races from 2007-2009 and improved from a rating of 77 to 99), Knock Stars (a filly who won the 2010 Birdcatcher), Stones Peak (four-time handicap winner from 51-80) and Versilia Gal a dual scorer at two last season and probably on a winning mark again at the moment. Unsurprisingly, a lot of the horses put in training with Martin are fillies with the clear intention of perpetuating the dam-lines.

The horse I am suggesting to follow from the Curragh yesterday is Indy Gal who happens to be a half-sister (by Intikhab) to Knock Stars and is also a sibling to three other track winners. All the stock from the dam to race to date have won and I am looking to Indy Gal to continue this record in time. Indy Gal’s dam is Knockatotaun (by Spectrum) who scored twice over 12f for Martin/Brennan and who happens to be a half-sister to Indiana Gal (won over 7f-11f) and three other winners. For good measure the grandam (by Danehill) won four times over 9f for the same connections back in 1996/97 and she, in turn, is related to a hatful of winners.

I can offer no insight on Indy Gal other than her pedigree and a partnership with winning ways but once a certain high-flying apprentice is on board and she starts running in handicaps her progress should be noted. I also hope that, although last of seven yesterday, she didn’t finish too close although the pace was non-existent for half the race. The Farrell filly, who also ran in this maiden, did nothing to dissuade me from following her this season in handicaps around a mile or so.

Three-year-old Classic Entries

Scanning through the entries for the English classics a number of horses caught my eye. It might be worthwhile noting them if and when they re-appear this season. The ones that interest me most are:
English 2000 Guineas:

Don’t Bother Me (Niall Moran): decent performer who won a 7f Leopardstown maiden on good-soft in September. Ran well on his return at Dundalk against a Ballydoyle good thing who had been second in the Norfolk and third in the Middle Park. This is easily the best horse that Moran has trained and he could win a decent pot for him this year. His sire, Dark Angel, has been a revelation and his first crop certainly trained on a 3yo’s.

Mooqtar (K Prendergast):  Prendergast may not be the force of old but Sheikh Hamdan certainly rewarded him for his loyalty with this yearling in 2011. He’s a half-brother to five winners and all the family to race have won and all were trained by Prendergast. Four of them won as 2yo’s and, more importantly, all bar one won at three. The best of the quintet were Haatef who won the 6f Group 2 Diadem Stakes at 3 and Shimah who was second in the Moyglare. Shimah, in fact, was the only one of the family not to win at 3 but her sole start saw her finish unplaced in the Guineas. Mooqtar won a 7f Leopardstown maiden (good) in September on his only start in a race that produced four very decent horses in the previous five years namely: Casual Conquest (Rogers Gold Cup winner), Vocalised (Greenham Stakes), Chabal (second in National Stakes and won Sandown Classic Trial) and Akeed Mofeed (won Listed Platinum stakes at Cork).  The placed horses in last year’s race have also done their bit for the form. Plenty in that history to suggest this horse will be a strong bet in his second season.

English 1000 Guineas:

Hint Of A Tint (D Wachman):  This is another John O’Byrne purchase (£125,000) for JP (runs in his daughter’s name) and it’s another filly with a superb pedigree. She is the third foal out of an unraced Galileo mare who is a half-sister to French Derby winner Hernando and many other black-type winners. HOAT (by Danehill Dancer) won her only start at two on atrocious Curragh ground and has been “minded” ever since. As I have often said Wachman rarely calls a goose a swan and this filly has all the big entries so the hint, as they say, should be taken.

I will look at the Irish Classics later in the week where I have already spotted a few intriguing entries.

Royal A

Royal A where can one find the entries for the classics

Some interesting horses still left in the first fillies Irish Classic:

Irish 1000 Guineas:

Rocktique (John Oxx): unraced; Lord John is parsimonious with his owners’ money so it’s probably significant that he has left this unraced three-year-old in the race. She cost $70,000 at the 2011 Keeneland September Sale and is related to a decent 7f Group-placed winner in France and two winners in the U.S.  Her dam, by Danehill, won over 8f in the US (cost Paul Shanahan £160,000 as a yearling and was placed over 7f for Charles O’Brien at two), is well-related and traces back to the mighty Storm Bird. She is by a US-based sire, Hard Rock Ten, who has had a decent start to his stallion career.

Starland (J Bolger): unraced; from a very recognisable Bolger family, Starland’s unraced dam (by the royal and regal Royal Academy!) is a half-sister to Bolger’s 1994 Phoenix Stakes winner Eva Luna and the 1993 Futurity (G3 over 8f) winner Cois Na Tine. Three of Starland’s sibling have won for Bolger the best being the triple handicap winner (over 8f, 10f & 11f) Coolcullen Times. The dam hasn’t produced a top-class foal as yet but she is throwing winners. Starland is by none other than Galileo which gives her every opportunity and her full-sister, Solas Na Greine, won over 7f at two but did little thereafter.

Mizzava (M Halford): this filly won’t be winning any Classics but I’d say she will be winning!  Four of her siblings have won, one was placed and the only “bad” horse was by a poor stallion, Mull Of Kintyre, now enjoying tiffin in the Raj. Curiously, he was also the only colt to represent the Niniski dam, a winner up to 10f. Mizzava’a winning half-sisters include Elletelle who was Ger Lyons’ first Royal Ascot winner (5f Queen Mary), a  one-mile German listed winner and a Mark Johnston 7f winner. Halford’s filly is by Cape Cross so one would expect her optimum trip to be 8f+. Missava had one start at two finishing 9th in a 7f Dundalk maiden running a race of some promise. Obviously, Halford believes she is a lot better than that.

Sister Slew (JG Murphy): Joe Murphy looks to have a nice three-year-old prospect in this daughter of Kheleyf who is very closely-related (they share the same grand-sire) to a one-mile winner for the same connections in 2011. These are the first two foals of a Capote-winning US-bred dam. Three runs over 7f at two have been promising-one in particular should have you gasping!-and she looks sure to carry on the record (five winning fillies over the past three years) of Murphy winning with the stud owner’s fillies.

Mindy (PJ Prendergast): this entry jumps out at me thanks to the very good start to the season by the trainer.  She was an unconsidered 20/1 shot when sixth in a Curragh (heavy) maiden last season and the run was eye-catching. She finished upsides Stack’s Wannabe Better who ran well last weekend.  Her pedigree suggests she wont be seeing trips of less than one mile again with the Montjeu dam related to an Oaks-placed filly.

GH: these entries are available on all the best racing websites: RP, Irish Racing etc.

Irish 2000 Guineas:

Inkerman (D Wachman): unraced; if memory serves, Vincent O’Brien and Lester Piggott were associated with a horse of this name who may have won at Royal Ascot so the naming of this horse could be significant. From the first crop of Duke Of Marmalade-the Danehill colt who excelled over 10f-12f – Inkerman was a €140,000 purchase by Demi O’Byrne for the Coolmore partnership. The breeder, Frank Barry, would a capo in the Tipperary mafia and is no slouch at breeding good horses. Inkerman’s dam, Lady Taufan, was a 1989 home-bred for Barry in 1991 (couldn’t sell her at four grand) and she remained a maiden for Kevin Prendergast although placed from 7f-9f. Her sprinting full-sister, also bred by Barry, did her bit for the page when winning three times at two in a season that included a placing in the Group 2 Lowther Stakes. It’s clear from the early coverings of Lady Taufan (Turtle Island and Statoblest) that she was no great white hope for the stud but her fortunes as a broodmare improved when three consecutive covers by Orpen produced three multiple winners who were all best around one mile. She hasn’t been the most prolific breeder in recent years due to advancing years but Duke Of Marmalade would represent by far and away her most high-profile covering ever as a result of her black-type Orpen performers. The sire has it all to do in his second season at the moment and this horse may represent a good chance for him.

English Deer (Paul Deegan): owned by Deegan’s biggest patron, Jaber Abdullah, I would question the horse still holding this entry but he looks likely to win before long. In fact the horse was a strongly-fancied third at Gowran earlier this week and, according to Johnny Ward, is “held in some regard”.  He was beaten by inmates from Bolger’s (who else!) and Kevin Prendergast whose horses have been running consistently well. His solitary run at Dundlak last season was promising where he was short enough in the betting but an outside, coffin draw saw him too busy, too early.

RA......a staely and splendid post, hope we get a few winners outta yuor hard work..... twill be a long season................

RA you are correct about Inkerman. I remember Lester riding it .  By Vaguely Noble out of Crimea. I also thought it won at Ascot but maybe it only placed.

INKERMAN  (USA) b. H, 1975 DP = 9-8-19-4-10 (50) DI = 1.13   CD = 0.04 - 17 Starts, 5 Wins, 3 Places, 3 Shows Career Earnings: $255,601

Winnings: 17 Starts: 5 - 3 - 3, $255,601

Won: Gallinule S.-Gr.2 (IRE), Joe McGrath Memorial S.-Gr.1 (IRE), Sunset H.-Gr.1 (USA). 2nd: American H.-Gr.2 (USA). 3rd: Blandford S.-G2 (IRE), Sunset H.-Gr.1 (USA), American H.-Gr.2 (USA).

Inkerman also ran in the Derby
June 7, 1978


In a dramatic finish to the Derby, Shirley Heights (John Dunlop/Greville Starkey) squeezes through a gap on the rails to beat Hawaiian Sound (Barry Hills/Willie Shoemaker) by a head. Favourite Inkerman (Vincent O'Brien/Lester Piggott) is 21st of 25.

Definitely Best-5yo mare by Kings Best ex Valentina Guest

Choosing a trainer who is only 1-26 with her flat runners with her solitary success coming at Ballinrobe in 2009 is probably not good economics but this mare might reward a financial interest at some stage at a decent price.

Definitely Best's dam was a tough old boot and won four races for Peter Casey and Basil Brindley, winning over 7f at two before winning three 10f Leopardstown handicaps from 2004-2006 and she also managed to sneak some black-type when third over both 13f and 14f. Curiously her two winning siblings also managed to score in Leopardstown handicaps from distances from 8f-16f, again for the Casey/Brindley partnership. Brindley paid plenty for the grandam when she was bought from the Aga Khan in 2000.

Brindley’s dividend on Valentina Guest first foal was a paltry €1,200 as a yearling and she was obviously a disappointing sort as it took her until her 4yo season to get to the track when she ran five times without success and a handicap mark of 62. This mark was a bit of a disaster to be honest because she was allowed to show up too well when fourth in a Gowran maiden last September and paid the price! She ran reasonably promisingly and the winner (won again off 78), second (also won off 78) and third (won two races) have all advertised the form.  Admittedly, Definitely Best was 4L in arrears of the third but the fifth and sixth home have placed form in handicaps.

Definitely Best made her seasonal appearance at the Curragh last week and seemed to run well enough in her first handicap when 6L 6th/13 in a one-mile handicap and wasn’t entirely friendless in the market. Ben Curtis has ridden her in her last four starts and my guess is he will have praised her when he dismounted and her trainer, Maria Kelly, will be hoping she provides her with another winner almost four years after her last (and only) success. She ran off 59 and has since been dropped another pound but I’d prefer to see her on 54/55 to have a decent winning chance. Who knows, maybe a 10f Leopardstown handicap just might be the winning ticket.

The list is already off to a solid start with Halford’s Mizzava winning at 25/1 (BSP 65)at Limerick, Don’t Bother Me just getting collared at 12/1 yesterday and only Wachman’s Hint Of A Tint ran poorly of three runners in last few days. Wachman's filly was a big disappointment as if there's one thing these Danehill Dancer fillies can do is gallop through heavy ground. All is probably not lost yet though as Berry obviously expected her to show a serious turn of foot up the straight. I wonder what Wayne Lordan thought of it all.

Solid start is some understatement,I was watching the racing at Limerick and saw the fillies getting worked up,saw Hanky Panky dripping with sweat,remember this thread and remembered Missava being mentioned so that coupled with the fractiousness of Hanky Panky made me a layer of the odds on filly.

A belated thanks Royal Academy

Sadler’s Wells, trained by Vincent O’Brien, needs no introduction and became the greatest stallion that ever stood in Ireland following a tough-as-teak racing career that ultimately delivered on the Northern Dancer strategy that started in the seventies for the O’Brien/Sangster/Magnier partnership. Vincent O’Brien also trained his year younger full-brother, Fairy King, way back in 1984/85 and the story of this horse’s early stallion career would be worthy of Brough Scott’s attention with or without the imprimateur of the Tipperary mafia.

The potted version is as follows: Vincent decided that Fairy King (who had only one lifetime start at the Phoenix Park that ended in injury) would stand at his daughter Jane’s incipient stud farm, Ballysheehan (just outside Cashel), much to the chagrin of the Coolmore maestro. To add insult to injury Fairy King became an immediate hit at stud and produced a colt named Pharaoh’s Delight in his first crop who scored at Royal Ascot in the Windsor Castle Stakes and also collected the 1989 Group One Phoenix Stakes for two-year-olds. This started the mother of all battles between Coolmore and the Fairy King backers with Coolmore ultimately gaining control of the stallion after an acrimonious battle. The final chapter in this saga was one of the most daring agricultural property deals ever done in Ireland with Ballysheehan Stud, based only ten miles from Coolmore, being sold to the Arabs and giving the Dubai Sheikhs a foothold in enemy territory, in whose possession it remains to this day.

This imbroglio came to mind as I was studying the pedigree of James Barrett’s 3yo colt Big Whiskey (by Ad Valorem) who has been running respectably in maidens. Big Whiskey is out of a decent 7f-winning mare (by Sadler’s Wells) who is very closely related to Fairy King and she has produced four winners who all won over distances from one-mile up. Big Whiskey’s sire, Ad Valorem (won 6f G1 Middle Park at two and the 8f G1 Queen Anne at three) has not been a star and no longer resides in Coolmore as far as I can tell but he is capable of siring winners who seem to have a preference for 6f-7f.

The trainer, Barrett, is interesting in that he was originally set up by a developer a few years back having spent a few years with Charlie Mann. His highest profile winner then was Barker who was very well campaigned to win the 2008 Pierse Hurdle and after taking a break for a few years with the presumable demise of his backer he is now back in action and the well-handled Lake George, who won four flat handicaps, has brought him back to the notice of the public.

The form of Big Whiskey’s run at Leopardstown last August is well worth checking out and his recent effort at Gowran also held some promise as he had to be very busy early from a bad draw. You couldn’t say that he has been staying on in his races and it’s possible that 7f-8f will be his trip.

The final two Irish classics:

Irish Derby:

I noted four horses but only one of them made my final cut. Andy Oliver’s First Cornerstone is pretty decent but exposed, John Oxx’s Hasanour is unraced and might be an obvious one for a maiden but I think his dam side is weak in recent generations. Orgilgo Bay (John C McConnell) has the type of profile I like from unfashionable quarters but his recent run at Gowran left a lot to be desired and I dislike the moniker “one of the best maidens in the country” . My only nomination is:

Timikar (J Oxx): grandam is the brilliant Timarida who won the 1996 Champion Stakes and she has bred four pretty decent middle-distance performers including Timarwa (2004 Daylami mare and dam of Timikar) who won a Group 3 over 9 furlongs on her penultimate start before contesting the 2007 Breeders Cup turf race for mares and fillies-finished sixth.  It’s a pedigree that could deliver.

Timikar was fourth in a back-end Leopardstown maiden over 7f and it was a run brimful of promise and the third and fifth-placed horses have franked the form since.

Irish Oaks:

A certain caution and discernment is needed when assessing unraced or unexposed middle-distance entries for fillies but those that I like are:

Kentucky Woman (T Stack) unraced: grandam is Kevin Prendergast's 1981 Irish 1000 Guineas winner Arctique Royale who bred six black-type performers (including a top-class broodmare Truly Special) and two other winners including Banquise who won over two miles and in turn bred five winners the best of which was Kentucky Woman’s full-brother, Robin Hood (by Galileo), who won over 7f and 10f for Aidan O’Brien.

Kentucky Woman is owned by her breeder, the well-connected Paul Shanahan, another man one shouldn’t insult if one happens to be in Tipperary!

Midnight Thoughts (D Weld) unraced and owned by Moyglare: a fine example of a fantastic Haefner page: the dam is the Danehill mare, Irresistible Jewel, who won the Group 2 Ribblesdale Stakes at Royal Ascot in 2002 and she has bred three winners of twelve races including Princess Highway who managed to emulate her mother’s achievement at Royal Ascot last season.  The other two winning siblings won a Gladness (7f Group 3) and an Irish St. Leger.

Tae Think Again (Tracey Collins) unraced: Collins makes fairly liberal entries for her principal patron Thistle Bloodstock but this entry might be worth noting for a few reasons.  She is by the imperious Galileo, her dam won 8f-9f graded races in the States, she is a half-sister to the same owner’s Oor Jock (winner and stakes-placed over 5f) and both the dam and grandam count many winning siblings as half-brothers and sisters. One of Jimmy Long’s (Thistle Bloodstock owner) best horses was King Jock, a decent miler who is related to Tae Think Again.

Another stately and splendid post by R/A

My initial list will probably hit thirty-to-follow; these three make twenty two.

Some more entries in early-closing Irish stakes that catch the eye:

Coolibah (3yo Peintre Celebre filly) Charles O’Brien

This juvenile-winning filly looks like being O’Brien’s principal flag-bearer this season and the trainer does have a nice record when it comes to racing well-bred fillies. His best four horses over the past few seasons have all been fillies (he is something of a similar-type set up to Wachman’s Longfield Stables) and, remarkably, all have been by the Banstead Manor stallion Dansili-the top stallion in the UK. He improved his late father’s Grecian Dancer to win four handicaps and then graduate to listed and group-winning status, Glowing won the G3 7f Brownstown Stakes, Laughing won the 11f listed Nijinsky Stakes and Bewitched was probably his best advertisement winning two handicaps, two listed contests followed by four Group 3 events. The last three fillies all raced in Sue Magnier’s colours. All four of these fillies improved with racing and I am hoping the same will be true for Coolibah.

She collected a 7f Roscommon maiden last season prior to running placed in two black-type events over 7f and 9f and is by a Coolmore sire who produces good if not great middle distance horses. She is the third foal of an unraced Danehill dam and is closely related to the French Derby winner and successful stallion Darshaan. It is one of the most recognisable Aga Khan families. Vincent O’Brien bought the unraced dam for £300,000 in 2004 from Barronstown Bloodstock-a leading partner in the Coolmore empire. Coolibah’s two older siblings (both fillies by Invincible Spirit) were both sold as yearlings but were hopeless on the track and were picked up as potential broodmares for just £6,000 and £3,000 suggesting that track performance gained significant preference over a page laden with large black-type. The decision to retain Coolibah looks well justified and, as I write, she hold entries in four black-type events over the coming weeks including the Epsom Oaks.

Joanna Morgan

One of the sweetest winners I have backed was Morgan’s 16/1 Obama Rule who won a Curragh Group 3 in 2010. She was still a maiden up to that point but her entries in higher class events meant that the trainer was emitting signals as to the regard in which she held her prior to this win. 

She has two of her charges holding decent entries at present, one of which confirms positive noises from last season whilst the second horse’s entries look almost opportunistic and of the “tilting at windmills” variety.

Roca Tumu won a one-mile maiden on heavy ground at Navan last October and Morgan was raving about him afterwards: “Roca Tumu is a very good horse. I didn´t want to run him as he needs quick ground but the owners insisted. He was also a bit short of work as he had a dirty nose a few weeks ago. He´s one to look forward to next year." A recent pipe-opener was interesting and I think he gave Billy Lee a fright when he gave him one solitary crack inside the last furlong as he wasn’t overly fancied (if you get my drift). An entry in the 10f Derby Trial will do for me.

On the other hand the 5yo mare Negotiate’s form figures are the algebraic 400/06-8 yet she is proudly peering out at me from the pages of the calendar for entries in the Tattersalls Gold Cup (Group One) AND a Group 2 AND a Group 3. She does have form back in her 3yo days when Andy Oliver thought a bit about her and she is either a secret female version of Pegasus or her owners like a day out and rubbing shoulders with the glitterati (that’s me, not you!). It will be interesting to see how her season works out.

Now, hopefully, a few of these sleepers will pay for a summer holiday on some far-flung atoll. If not, it will be the bucket and spade in Las Tramore with the proletariat.

Euphrasia (Joe Murphy)

Windsor Know is a son of Pivotal who won two Group 3’s for Goldophin (over 7f and 9f) and his liking for soft ground has been passed on to his progeny. He was a modest stallion retiree to the flat scene in Ireland in 2008 and stands at Rossenarra Stud. His first crop are now 4yo’s but there will be some hoping down in Kells, Co Kilkenny that Joe Murphy’s 3yo filly Euphrasia might be his first stakes winner from a relatively small number of runners. His best horse to date has been Flaxen Flare who, ironically, was successful in the Fred Winter at Cheltenham this year for Gordon Elliott. The McEnery’s might unwittingly have a national hunt prospect on their hands! A horse with a similar profile to Windsor Know is the former Irish National Stud’s Jeremy who also produced the brilliant Our Connor in his first crop and has recently moved home to Garryrichard Stud, a renowned home for jumping stallions.

Euphrasia collected a 9f Curragh maiden on heavy ground last October and was a gallant runner up to a Bolger horse on her first start this season over 9.5f at Gowran.  Connections expressed the hope last season that she might be up to winning at premier handicap or listed class this season and her first start suggests that she has trained on very well over the winter. A propos that Gowran race it is remarkable how tough these Bolger horses have been first time out and there was no passing them suggesting that many of them have been extremely fit for the current campaign. Bolger’s horses have not always made such an early impact (Tommy Stack has had an unusually quiet start) and it may well have something to do with ensuring that New Approach is primed for his Guineas exertions shortly. Euphrasia is out of a dual 6f, listed placed dam who is related to three black type winners (including a third in 8f G1 Racing Post Trophy) so it would be no major surprise if this cheaply-bought filly managed to improve her page. An entry in the 10f Blue Wind Stakes at Naas in May maybe her first test although I would prefer backing her in major handicaps, especially on soft ground.

Ozeta (Niall Madden)

“Under the radar” horses are an enjoyable conundrum to solve and this horse fits the bill. I had been closely following “Boots” Madden’s Shake The Bucket from his Dromahane 4yo maiden-winning days in 2011 and what Madden has done with this horse is testament to his skill as a horseman.  The horse progressed to winning a Tramore maiden hurdle and a remarkable five times in Dundalk handicaps over a relatively modest 19lbs range. (Examples such as this would be one of my main platforms in arguing how some trainers get the best out of their charges and others fail miserably at times).

The case for Ozeta: an extremely classy filly at three who won an 11f Longchamp listed race for Ellie Lelouche before graduating to hurdles and winning a 2m2f fillies listed hurdle prior to her being sold to JP who despatched her to Nicky Henderson. Her career with Henderson was a failure (one modest win in a Taunton juvenile hurdle) and she was sent to Boots last winter and promptly failed dismally in two handicap hurdles. Madden then scratched his head and looked for an alternative career and switched her back to the flat and on her first start she was a very promising second to Steps To Freedom on the all-weather at Dundalk-shades of Shake The Bucket emerging. This was followed by a fair sixth in the Lincoln before her last run-beaten out of sight over 14f at Leopardstown- forces one into a forgiving mode. However I’m long enough around to know that horses run well and badly at times and it is the bouncebackability that can often reward the backer’s courage. An entry in the same Blue wind Stakes mentioned above adds to the riddle that is currently Ozeta.

Three runners in the past week and two of them progressing to handicap marks and remain of definite interest. It didn't take Big Whiskey long to confirm my regard for him and from a nibbled-at morning price of 9/1 he collected the concluding maiden at Naas yesterday at 13/2. Barrett took on Bolger, Weld and Sheikh Mohammed and backed his opinion accordingly so this goes down in my book as a good training achievement and puts the prospect of Tramore lengthening odds against already.

All quiet on this at the moment, no sign of Hazy, but probably turn up for one of those big field handicaps at the Curragh 2000gns w/end or Derby weekend, if he has a lot in hand...........

The entries for the first 2yo Group One to be run in Ireland this year, the Keeneland Phoenix Stakes, were published recently and, as ever, make interesting reading at a time when only 16 of the 61 entries have run. The race will be run on 11th August 2013.
There are 61 entries and 18 youngsters are fillies (30%). Only three UK trainers are represented in the €200,000 contest (Channon, Johnston and Brittain with a total of eight entries in all) and I have no intention of following these as I don’t have the time to monitor UK flat racing closely.

Some aspects that catch the eye:

There are three entries for first-season sire, Sea The Stars, and all are fillies two of whom emanate from the sires’ original connections namely Oxx and Chrispopher Tsui; Bolger and Ballydoyle have 9 entries each (with 3 and 2 fillies respectively) followed by Prendergast (8-3f), Weld (7-2f) Andy Oliver (5-2f) and John Oxx with 4 (3f). Only 6 other trainers are represented by 11 entries. Oliver is probably something of a surprise with 5 entries and time will tell if the entries are all promising individuals or merely ensuring that his entries policy is (expensively) thorough although he did break into the big-time last season thanks to First Cornerstone and Sendmylovetorose.

David Wachman has 2 entries and surprisingly for a trainer who normally has top-class fillies both are colts while Ger Lyons has three unraced colts two of whom are owned by the Qatari moneybags. Sire of the moment, New Approach, has two entries (both trained by the Master of Coolcullen with one owned by Sheikh Mo) whereas champion sire, Galileo, hasn’t a single entry, not even from Ballydoyle.

I will post a listing of what I consider the best unraced prospects shortly.

Inkerman goes at Gowran this evening 17.50

Inkerman non-runner, too much rain I'd guess, last night.

For betting purposes I am only interested in the unraced horses mentioned below.

Ger Lyons:

Fog Of War-colt by Azamour; £120,000 Tatts October-bought by David Redvers for Sheikh Al Thani (who owned Lyon’s Group  one-winning filly Lightning Pearl).
All four of this colt’s siblings to race have won the best of whom was Brian Meehan’s Brevity who won a listed race over 6f at two and, before a set back, was being mooted as a Cheveleley Park filly. The dam won over a mile and is a full-sister to the high class 2yo Daggers Drawn who was a modestly successful stallion. Azamour is a successful if not top-class sire. (Unraced)

Sniper-colt by Dubawi - one of the best stallions around and home-bred by Al Thani. He’s a full-brother to 7f listed winner (at two) Titus Mills (was considered good enough to run in Racing Post trophy at two) and two other winners. The dam was unraced but she is out of a Group One winning 2yo who was second in a Guineas. (Unraced)

Third Dimension-another colt by Dubawi (bought for an inexpensive £38,000 at Tatts October) and will represent Lyons partner-in-crime Sean Jones when he sees the track. He is the dam’s (by Cape Cross) second foal and his half-sister (Heading North, a filly by Teofilo) won over 7f at two for Richard Hannon and is likely to win again at three. The dam won over a mile on her second (and last) start and is closely related to the top class 6f/7f Group winner Rock City.

Update: Third Dimension carried a lot of confidence (started at a very painful 7/4F) in a 6f maiden at Leopardstown last Monday but after jumping very slowly he couldn’t quicken at all when pressed 2f from home. Connections will have been disappointed and its long odds-on the ground will have been blamed. Needs to retrieve the situation after this.

David Wachman:

I have to say I am a little disappointed with Wachman’s entries as I was hoping for a pedigree or two that would grab my attention.

Pleasant Bay-£45,000 colt by Bushranger who Wachman trained to be be a champion 2yo over 6f. Bushranger stands at Tally Ho where they are not in the least shy when it comes to covering large books of mares with their stallions. Bushranger is a first-season sire and whilst his stock have been popular at the sales he is off to a shaky enough start with just a couple of average winners from his first 16 starters. Pleasant Bay is a half-brother to 5 winners out of a Tally Ho-owned 7f winning mare. Sticking my neck out I would say this is a not a black-type page although he may well win a country maiden.

Update: Pleasant Bay ran in the same maiden as Third Dimension and was an all day drifter out to 6/1. He was close enough if good enough 2f out but, to my eye, his head carriage looked a little “iffy” when pushed out and I won’t be rushing to back him next time out although Wachman’s horses invariably improve for the initial run.

Wachman’s second entry, Sudirman (colt by Henrythenavigator; £200,000 purchase by Fitri Hay and John Magnier) also ran this week and was a disappointing last of five at Naas on Wednesday evening and was similarly ignored in the market. If these two colts represent the best of Wachman’s juvenile crop then he is in for a long season.

T Stack

After a very uncharacteristic slow start to the season Tommy Stack’s horses have hit a rich vein of form and he has had four winners from his last eight starters. I have to say that his Duke Of Marmalade filly, Alive Alive Oh, owned by JP’s daughter, looks absolutely top class and if I were to follow one horse throughout her 3yo career it would be this dual scorer. She’s quality if I have ever seen it and could be the star that her sire badly needs. Incidentally, the grapevine suggested that a new all-weather gallop was the reason for the Thomastown stuttering start to the year.

Amaradian-filly by Cape Cross who cost the Stacks €100,000 at Goffs. She is a half-sister to four winners including two Group/Grade 2 winners over 6f and 8f. The dam won over 7f and is from a very well-known Moyglare line that includes such prolific winners as Refuse To Bend, Twilight Agenda and Media Puzzle. (Unraced)

Treadstone: £52,000 Doncaster yearling by Myboycharlie. Stack trained the sire to be a champion 2yo and 2011 progeny represent his first northern hemisphere crop. Fans of Jason Bourne will be rooting for him to be good but his first start (8L 4/6 at Tipperary) in early May was a bit disappointing. However, I wouldn’t put you off following him for his next few runs as the Stack stable was mis-firing at the time and the ground was dreadful.

Tommy Carmody

Derulo-colt by Arakan who cost Johnny Murtagh €67,000 at Goffs. She was bred by John Grogan of Katla fame (triple 6f listed winner) and this mare just happens to be a half-sister to Derulo. The Dr Fong dam was average but she in turn is a half-sister to Wooton Bassett (Richard Fahey’s first Group One winner –over 7f) and Mister Hardy (won six races for Fahey). The Carmody/Murtgah/Tinkler combine are proving to be a very potent partnership and I’m pleased to see this “dark horse” entry. (Unraced)

Beauty’s Forte: another Goffs purchase, this time another colt for €90,000 and by the very prolific sprinting sire Kyllachy. The unraced dam is a half-sister to the solid 7f Group three winner Trade Fair (Roger Charlton) and a listed winner over 12f. (Unraced).

Carmody's most eye-catching pedigree is that held by Calorie, a Tinkler home-bred daughter of Sea The Stars out of Tommy Stack’s 5f black-type sprinter Sugar Free who was picked up as an innocent maiden by Tinkler for £540,000 at the end of her 3yo season. The second dam was also a high class sprinter and she was second in Group One Prix Morny (6f) at two. (Unraced)

More to follow………………………………..

Update: faith in the tried and tested selection process paid off again on Wednesday when Joe Murphy's Euphrasia upset a few reputations when winning the Blue Wind at 33/1 in just a four-runner event. Indy Gal showed the expected promise (third at 25/1), Mizzava looks worth following for the forseeable future (third at 14/1) and Hint Of A Tint left her Guineas Trial run behind (a neck second at 6/1). What's interesting about all these runs is the lack of market support and that should tell you something. A few of the other selections ran quite well and I thought one in particular was a monster (although well beaten).

Completing my review of the entries for the Phoenix Stakes I have concentrated on the five major stables with multiple entries. My selections are based entirely on pedigrees that give the colts and fillies every chance of succeeding on the track and, at the time of writing, all are unraced.

Dermot Weld (7 entries in total)

Keyboard Melody (Verglas colt ex Wrong Key)

By the now deceased Irish National Stud stallion, Verglas, who was capable of getting Grade 2 performers. Keyboard Melody is a full brother to a Marble Hill winner (5f Listed) and three other winners who were very useful over one mile (only progeny to run). The dam was a useful three-time winning miler who was a full sister to Right Key who won three stakes races over 10f-14f. It’s likely Kevin Prendergast will have been disappointed not to get this colt from Chryss O’Reilly as he has trained all the family for her in the past.

Pirita (Invincible Spirit filly)

Moyglare Stud went shopping at Goffs last autumn and selected this filly to help replenish their prospective broodmare band of the future at a cost of €330,000 which would be about half the going rate for failed bankers and civil servants these days. She is the 8th foal out of a modest maiden Spinning World mare but six of her siblings have all won with the best of them being a French 10f Listed winner (for Royer-Dupre), 5f Newmarket Listed winning sprinter, a one-mile Curragh listed 2yo winner and a Lingfield 7f Group Three scorer. The dam may not have won but she had four siblings who did and it’s a very strong French pedigree. One line on the page that catches my attention is that an unraced half-sister to the dam produced Chabal (by Galileo) who was second in the 2009 National Stakes for Jim Bolger.

Aidan O’Brien (9 entries)

The standout name among Ballydoyle two-year-olds this year for me was Fountain Of Youth named, presumably, after the famous FOY Stakes run at Gulfstream Park every February and recognised as a genuine Kentucky Derby Trial (and usually a prep for the earlier Florida Derby). This race was won by Michael Tabor’s Thunder Gulch back in 1995 and he became Tabor’s Derby winner just a few months later and Thunder Gulch became a high-profile stallion for Coolmore in America who’s best horse was Point Given who won two legs of the Triple Crown in 2001.

Vincent O’Brien and now Coolmore are renowned for trying to pick signature names for their putative champions so it was a major disappointment to see Fountain Of Youth unable to win a five-runner event at Naas just 9 days ago. The horse does have a superb pedigree being by Oasis Dream out of the absolutely brilliant Attraction (she won the top five Group One fillies events run over one mile in 2004 & 2005 for Mark Johnston and the Duke Of Roxburghe) although, as often happens, the dam has not been throwing champions as good as herself (a hard task admittedly!).  Three of her first four foals to race have all have been fillies and if Cushion can manage a winning bracket this season for John Gosden all three will have exceptionally valuable winning brackets for the breeding shed. A 2009 Pivotal colt never got to the track and Fountain Of Youth represents her fifth foal and has been the first colt to race. Coolmore seem to have been involved in her most recent foals and this is probably as a result of foal shares or maybe they bought a half-share in the mare from the “dook”. In any event, the naming of this colt after such a famous race and with fond connotations for Michael Tabor suggests it might be a little early to write off Fountain Of Youth as a contender for top honours.

Sir John Hawkins (colt by Henrythenavigator ex Peeping Fawn)

Keeping on the naming theme I laughed aloud when I researched John Hawkyns and discovered that he is “often considered to be the pioneer of the British slave trade”. This is obviously keeping in tune with the naval connotations of his sire and, at this rate, we can expect to see Captain Kidd and Bluebeard soon running from Ballydoyle although aficionados of the esoteric art of naming racehorses will point to an organisation with previous “form” in the naming of “Black Sam” Bellamy.

Henrythenavigator (the brilliant miler from 2008) is a second season sire and his first crop included the Breeders Cup juvenile winner, George Vancouver, Pedro the Great and Cristoforo Colombo. Sir John’s dam (who has produced two foals of racing age) was equally illustrious and she counted the 2007 Irish Oaks among four middle-distance Group One wins that year. Peeping Fawn’s first foal was the Galileo filly, Purely Priceless, who has raced only twice (as a 3yo) and she has been second in both starts for Jean Claude-Rouget in France and why she hasn’t raced for Ballydoyle is a bit of a mystery to me as this is an out-and-out Coolmore family that stretches back three generations. Incidentally a half-sister to Sir John Hawkin’s grandam made $14m at public auction in 2008 so one might say that the pedigree is highly “treasured”.

With such a superb and famous pedigree it will be interesting to follow the career of this colt to see what prizes he may be capable of plundering.

Bluebell (filly by Mastercraftsman)

There will be a few hopes invested in this filly to provide Mastercraftsman (Irish Guineas and St James Palace winner in 2009) with a potential star in his first crop. She cost Capo Tim Hyde €200,000 at Goffs in February 2012 – normally a rather undistinguished sale – although some six years ago Hyde bought the subsequent Irish Derby hero Frozen Fire for €250,000 at this same sale.

Des Leadon has been associated with the Irish Equine Centre for many years and his Swordlestown Little stud picked up Bluebell’s dam, Sogno Verde from John Oxx and Lady Clague, for what looks a bargain €60,000 in 2005 after an eleven race career that yielded a solitary 9f maiden win at Tipperary. She is a half-sister to no less than 8 winners the best of which were Pugin (a dual listed winner over 10f & 14f) and Chartres (a listed winner over 12f) and it’s a family that Vincent O’Brien developed in the seventies (he bought the fourth dam, Arkadina (by the imperious Ribot), in Kentucky as part of his crusade to import the very best American bloodlines into Ireland back in the 60’s and 70’s) and includes the 1988 St Leger winner Dark Lomond, third dam of Bluebell so this filly is returning to her historical home in Ballydoyle. In hindsight, this was a rare opportunity to buy into a famous Ballydoyle family and Leadon has to be congratulated for his foresight.

Bluebell (fourth foal) is already a half-sister to the very useful Bobbyscot (7f maiden winner and second in 10f G3 Gallinule for Paul Deegan) and Lilbourne Lad the winner of the G2 Railway stakes for Richard Hannon in 2011. I reckon that Leadon has already accumulated in excess of €700,000 for his sixty grand investment so it really was very smart business. However, I am surprised that he seems to have sold the two fillies that the mare has produced as money sometimes cannot buy these pedigrees that resonate with turf history and high performance.

I will shortly wrap up this preview with a further seven two-year-olds from Coolcullen, Currabeg and Friarstown.

Update: from a handful of runners Treadstone ran very well last Sunday at Navan improving seriously for his first run on bad ground to chase home a Ballydoyle hotpot at 16/1 and Joanna Morgan did me a serious turn earlier today when winning the mile handicap with Roca Tumu at 8/1 under the excellent Billy Lee and keeps the thread in solid profit.

Kevin Prendergast (8 entries)

For a trainer with a waning star it is quite impressive that Kevin Prendegast is in a position to enter 8 horses for the season’s first Group One for juveniles. I am even more impressed that fifty per cent of these are worthy of note based on ownership and pedigree. One has to hand it to SheikhHamdan for the loyalty shown to KP over the years.

Taanif (by Aqlaam)

Middle-eastern names leave me a bit non-plussed as they tend to have little “quality” as regards their careers racing in the British Isles (note to Betfair police: this is a geographical rather than a political expression) and I would also extend this criticism to naming horses after, say, a product or (whisper) a hotel where their uniqueness is lost in a sea of homogeneity. However, there is no denying that Aqlaam (by Oasis Dream) was a fine proponent of the racing art and he retired to stud having progressively climbed the racing ladder that culminated with a victory in the Group One Prix de Moulin de Longchamp over one mile in 2009. Yet another first season sire his first two representatives on the track have yet to register a win although both Culdaff and Aqlaam Vision might soon remedy that.

Sheikh Hamdan supported his stud’s patrons when giving £125,000 for Taanif last autumn and he is a half-brother to Godolphin’s Firebeam a three-time 6f/7f winner who was placed in a couple of black-type events and a Chapple-Hyam filly who won twice over one mile. The dam was good enough (!) to win a one mile Listed event in Italy and the second dam was a half-sister to Intimate Guest who won the 1987 May Hill Stakes (2yo 8f juvenile championship event) under Stevie Cauthen and trained by Sir Henry.

Invisible Flash (by Invincible Spirit)

The Irish National Stud’s CEO, John Osborne, often opines that Invincible Spirit is the strongest stallion in the world because he has been single-handedly carrying the stud for the past decade or so. Joking apart, Invincible Spirit is a serious stallion and is both a prolific winner producer and can sire top class runners.

Invisible Flash is a half-brother to two black-type performers in Able Speed (won 6f G2 Richmond Stakes for R Hannon and later in Japan) and Deal Breaker (5f winner for Eddie Lynam and later in the US) out of a 8f winner who was related to six winners the best of which was a one-mile G2 juvenile scorer.

Taaluf (filly by Nayef)

Choice home-bred filly from Shadwell who is a half-sister to three winners: the filly Jamaayel who scored twice over 6f & 7f at two before picking up black-type when second in a 7f listed event at the Curragh in 2010; a 3yo one mile maiden winning filly and a 7f Galway maiden winning filly. The mother was very good winning the G3 Athasi stakes over 7f at three and she in turn is closely related to three black-type winners over 6f & 7f the best of which was Haatef who won the 6f G2 Diadem Stakes as a 3yo at Ascot. All the family was trained by Prendergast and this filly looks a moral to win races.

The fillies maiden run at the Curragh earlier today causes me to scratch the intended inclusion of J’Aime a very nicely-bred Amadeus Wolf filly who is a half-sister to Lightening Pearl. She was soundly beaten and looks one to avoid.

John Oxx (4 entries)

My Titania (filly by Sea The Stars)

Compared to the tightly-held Coolmore families it can be relatively easy to buy into the Aga Khan lines as he has regular culling sessions annually. Darabaka (by Doyoun) was one such sale and she was bought by Pat Fitzsimon’s Oak Lodge Stud in 1994 for £15,000 as an unraced “cull” from the Aga Khan’s Stud. She was carrying a cover to the modest Pharly and this foal was sold on for just £5,000. This horse was a prolific (albeit modest) two-miler for Mark Prescott but helped to make the mare. The mare produced four more winners including the 1996 Night Shift filly Sassenach who was bought by Sunderland Holdings’ David Tsui (the family of Sea The Stars fame) and she managed to win a 13f Downpatrick maiden for Michael Grassick from just two starts.

Sassenach, in turn, produced four winners for Tsui including a 12f Galileo Grade 3 winner in the US and Fairy Of The Night (by Danehill) who managed a very valuable 7f Listed win for Oxx and Tsui. The above 2yo filly, My Titania, represents Fairy Of The Night’s fourth foal and the only other sibling to run, Aneedah (by Invincible Spirit) was sold by the INS (who manage the Tsui operation) for €100,000 and she won over 8f and was listed placed for John Gosden.

My Titania is an early March foal and represents the first crop of the superstar racehorse that was Sea The Stars who has yet to have his first runner on the track. Just because his first-crop 2yo’s have not been seen by late May doesn’t necessarily signify that the stallion will shortly be a good bet for national hunt duty.

Sea Of Wells (filly by Dansili)

This Dansili filly represents many of the most notable names in bloodstock as she was bred by Denis Brosnan, was sired by Khalid Abdullah’s top-class Dansili and was bought by the Tsui family at Tattersalls last October for £310,000 who are giving a big vote of confidence to their “nice little earner” Sea The Stars. She has been sent to Currabeg Stables of John Oxx to be trained.

Coincidentally this is another Aga Khan dam-line that was sold on and Denis Brosnan seems to have acquired the 10f-winning grandam privately when she retired from racing. She produced five winners for DB including a 7f G3 King Of Kings (“My name is Ozymandias, king of kings: Look on my works, ye Mighty, and despair!") filly but the best of the lot was David Wachman’s Royal Ascot Queen Mary (5f G2) winner Damson one of the best fillies of her generation but whose best days came at two years of age. Brosnan retained the 2006 Sadler’s Wells filly, Kiyra Wells, and she managed to gain a valuable winning bracket over 7f at Roscommon in 2009. She was sent to the breeding shed in 2010 and Sea Of Wells is her first foal and she has a pedigree laden with winning relations.

Jim Bolger (9 entries)

The only unraced Bolger entry I can get excited with is

Prudent Approach (filly by New Approach ex Hymn Of The Dawn)

In very simple terms, this filly is a full-sister to Dawn Approach!

I had half a notion that her sire New Approach might have been a one-trick-pony but Libertarian (G2 Dante winner), Tha’ir (Royal Ascot Chesham winner), Newfangled (Royal Ascot Albany winner) and Montsegur (G1 winner in Australia) relieves me of that notion and Prudent Approach will be an interesting runner when she appears although do bear in mind that she was a May foal.

The slave trader, Sir John Hawkins wins today (2/1) and is an early return for yesterday's posting. Joanna Morgan continues to amuse me with her campaigning of Negotiate and this filly has now run most recently in a G3, G2 and today's Gold Cup (G1) and has been beaten an aggregate of 31L. I am now waiting for her to drop in class and a mark in the mid-80's in a fillies premier handicap up the Curragh will do nicely. Finally, I backed Mizzava for serious money earlier at triple-figure odds and but for a poorish draw in stall 14 she could have finished closer than a 4L fifth-she saw plenty of daylight too on only her fourth start and if they send her to the Coronation Stakes I will continue to support her. I have fond memories of backing Adrian Maxwell's Orchestration to win this race many moons ago as a nipper (my old man was greasing the palm of the head lad if I recall) and its a race I love.

i see inkerman out tomoro eve gowran..intresting

Two illuminating developments on the Irish 2-y-o scene recently with a forfeit stage for the Phoenix Stakes coinciding with the early entries for the Group 2 Railway Stakes at the Curragh on 29th June. As both races are run over 6f it gives us a chance to decipher trainers’ current thoughts on their young tyros.

A total of ten horses were withdrawn from the Phoenix Stakes and these included just one horse that I had nominated previously. This was Tommy Stack’s Treadstone who is probably more exposed now and his second placing at 14/1 was the day to be winning.  It may be difficult to be against the market but you can see that previous results suggest that they often win when unfancied. He may win but I feel the market is “on” to him now so he is deleted from the list.

The Dermot Weld entries are interesting in that of a total of 7 original PS entries he has now withdrawn 4 but my two nominations (Pirita and Keyboard Melody-the former has an entry in an upcoming fillies maiden) are left in which, if anything, strengthens my confidence in them and helps to enhance my selection process.

Weld has five entries for the Railway, including Pirita, but as only one of these is unraced he goes onto my list.

Nonchalant (colt by Oasis Dream owned by Khalid Abdullah)

This colt was bred by Christopher Wright’s Stratford Place Stud and bought by Abdullah at Tattersalls for £130,000. Wright, incidentally, is a big-wig in the music industry and his most famous racehorse was the filly Culture Vulture who was a brilliant miler a couple of decades back. Probably his highest profile breeding success was Donativum who won the 2008 Breeders Cup Juvenile for Godolphin. Donativum  is a half-brother to the dam of Nonchalant and she herself  won and was listed placed over one mile. Her only other foal to race is a filly trained by Slvester Kirk who was placed a couple of times at two. Weld does very well for the Prince and recent champions have been Famous Name (now at stud in Tully) and the top-class filly Emulous.

Andy Oliver’s 5 entries for the Phoenix didn’t impress me and he has 4 entries for the Railway including All Set To Go and Black Worcester that feature in both races. All Set To Go ran in the “slave-trader” maiden which I suspect will produce plenty of winners but neither horse impresses me sufficiently to nominate. A filly, Thrilled To Bits, made her sole start in a listed Curragh sprint and might be ok but I will take  a chance on the only unraced Oliver entry:

Panama Hat (cold by Medicean)

A €55,000 purchase by Team Valor International at Goffs this colt is probably a “thank you” to Oliver who won the juvenile G2 Futurity last year with First Cornerstone for the same owner just three days after they bought him and Oliver recommended a last-minute supplement.

Panama Hat is a second foal - half-brother looks no good - but she is out of a Dermot Weld-trained 9f winner who is a half-sister to Wachman’s Luas Line who won two listed races in Ireland (8f & 9f) before scoring in a 9f Grade One event in Belmont in 2005 and three other winners. The second dam was modest but she is related to a hatful of good horses.

As rules are there to be broken I am going to include a once-raced colt trained by Charles O’Brien.

Muscle Beach (by Langfuhr)

Another to run behind Sir John Hawkins Muscle Beach is out of an unraced dam who is a grand-daughter of US 6f stakes winner Aerturas from the family of Preakness winner Red Bullet.

Aidan O’Brien has a total of 14 entries for the Railway and it includes 4 unraced fillies and just a single colt that were not entered for the Phoenix Stakes.

The colt is easy to select and I am selecting two of the fillies primarily based on pedigree and what pedigrees they are!

War Command (colt by War Front)

The Danzig colt War Front was high-class over 6f-7f on dirt in the US and was owned by Joseph Allen who has been associated with good horses for 25 years. War Front stands at Claiborne in Kentucky and Allen has previously been involved with Ballydoyle most notably with Lines Of Battle another War Front colt (won over 6f, 7f & 10f) who was unplaced in both the Breeders Cup Juvenile Turf  and , most recently, the Kentucky Derby. The same partners are also involved in Allen’s Declaration Of War an ex-French winner at two before shipping to Ballydoyle where he won a mile listed event at Leopardstown before running fifth recently in the Lockinge. These are the best two representatives of his sire, so far, on this side of the pond (David Wachman exported a War Front winner who went on to better things in Japan).

War Command was bred by Allen in the US and is now in Ballydoyle. His sire has been a revelation at stud so far and this colt is a half-brother to 6 winners including a G3 9f winner and a dual one-mile winner. The dam won three times over a mile in Britain before Allen purchased her and sent her to race in the States where she won a 10f Grade Two in 1996 adding considerable lustre to her page.

As War Front is a son of Danzig (by Northern Dancer) its no surprise that Coolmore are so keen on him and they often pay their cash to test a hunch as their patronage of Storm Cat over the years would testify.

Adeste Fideles (filly by Giant’s Causeway ex Imagine)

A superb pedigree once again and probably one of the best in the book. The dam (by Sadler’s Wells) won the Irish Guineas and Epsom Oaks in 2001 and she is closely related to Generous, Strawberry Roan and Wedding Bouquet. The second dam, Doff The Derby, is one of the true foundation mares in Ballydoyle/Coolmore and Adeste Fideles herself has illustrious siblings in Viscount Nelson, Horatio Nelson, Red Rock Canyon and Kitty Matcham.

The present naming strategy for the Ballydoyle battalions has a fondness for the “war machine” and an assortment of villains, pirates and explorers so calling a filly “Adeste Fideles” suggests that the Almighty is now getting a look in. Nothing more to be said but “come all ye faithful” and trust that this filly will live up to her tremendous potential.

Bracelet (filly by Montjeu ex Cherry Hinton)

You look at these pedigrees and your eyes glaze over! The beautifully-named Bracelet’s grandmother is none other than Urban Sea the progenitor of Sea The Stars, Galileo and a host of other high-class individuals. Cherry Hinton was Urban Sea’s only runner never to win but she was placed in black-type contests over 9f and 10f.

Bracelet’s full-sister Wading, trained by Aidan O'Brien, won the 7f Group 2 Rockfel Stakes for 2yo’s at Newmarket in 2011 but was never seen on the track again. I believe that Coolmore and Urban Sea’s owner, Mrs Tsui, probably foal-shared some years ago and thus the Ballydoyle outfit have access to the pedigree of the legend that is Urban Sea thanks to Cherry Hinton (2004 Green Desert f) and All Too Beautiful, a 2001 Sadler’s Wells winning filly who had placed form at the highest level (second in an Epsom Oaks). Incidentally, Godolphin also managed to buy into this family when they had the foresight to acquire the 1997 Lammtarra filly, Melikah, when she was sold as a yearling in 1998 for 10m French Francs. I have little doubt a female member of this family will never be sold at public auction again in my lifetime.

It strikes me as a little curious as to why many of Aidan’s entries for the Railway Stakes were not original entries for the Group One Phoenix Stakes given that he is not usually parsimonious with other people’s money.

what did u think of inkermans run yesterday ra?

Bracelet out today at Naas, (the punters graveyard),...........

Update on Juvenile Fillies:

The entries for the Moyglare Stud Stakes – 78 for Ireland’s only 2yo fillies Group 1 event – are in and a number of nominations from both the high-rollers and less fashionable yards catch my eye:

Caliso Bay – home-bred filly by High Chaparral (George Kent)

Dermot Weld doesn’t make too many mistakes training horses but when he advised Stan Cosgrave to discard an unraced 2yo gelding by Notnowcato at the 2011 Goffs horses-in-training sale he can hardly have believed that the animal, Custom Cut, sold to George Kent for just €5,800, would run up a four-timer in handicaps in 2012 followed by a win in the 2013 Gladness Stakes no less! Anyone with a little time on their hands might spend a fruitful thirty minutes exploring this trainer’s recent record as it is very interesting, to say the least!

This latest filly is by a sire who has produced So You Think and this season’s Guineas plot Toronado is out of a mare who won twice over 10f and 11f for Barry Hills and the mother has already produced two capable fillies one of whom won over one mile for Ken Condon and the other has modest placed form over the same trip. The second dam was a triple 7f winner for Shadwell and the best recent relation (Ranin, trained by Ed Dunlop) scored over 15f in the  Group 3 Park Hill Stakes in 2001. A horse and trainer to note.

Ceylon – home-bred filly by Authorized (Patrick Prendergast)

The Californian-born squire of Grangecon Stud, the commodities trader Richard “Rick” Barnes, will be pacing his manicured lawns over the coming weeks in the hope that Sugar Boy, trained also by Prendergast, can break the Ballydoyle stranglehold on the Irish Derby. This is the best horse he has had in training at this level since he set up Grangecon as a rich man’s plaything over a decade ago although he did trade out of Heatseeker (home-bred and trained by Wachman) who went on to win the Grade 1 Santa Anita handicap in 2008. Ireland is fortunate to attract such enthusiasts to the racing game and with the support given to Patrick Prendergast in recent times it offers this trainer the chance of hitting the big time. I, for one, wish these guys the best of luck over the coming weeks. Barnes has assembled a quality broodmare band and is likely to become a more prominent name over the coming years as the breeding operation matures. Sugar Boy, for example, is out of a Danehill mare and was one of Barnes’ first purchases in Europe who won who two races in France for him in 2004.

Ceylon is another example of the “sell the colts, race the fillies” policy for many bloodstock operations and while Ceylon is a sixth foal related to two winners – a sprinter and a miler+ - I see that the dam was offloaded recently by Barnes and looks to have headed to some equatorial racing jurisdiction. One can understand why she was bought in the first place as she is a half-sister to a Ribblesdale (12f) winning mare who subsequently bred very classy middle-distance winner Pentire. Should Ceylon ever be prominent in the betting for the Oaks there won’t be too many articles written about her likelihood to stay the trip!

Gorteo – home-bred filly by Teofilo (Johnny Murtagh)

My earlier nomination of Murtagh’s Kyllachy colt, Beauty’s Forte, looked spot-on last Sunday morning when he was a “talking horse” in the early morning market for the 6f Curragh maiden. In the event he raced way too keenly however and the expensive 11/4 chance shot his bolt but I’m certain now that there will be other days for him as Murtagh doesn’t strike me as a typically quixotic member of his profession and expressed a similar notion in a recent Irish Field interview. However, with this performance and the disappointment of Fort Knox in the Guineas he’s learning early that there are more setbacks than advances in this game.

Gorteo’s breeder, Tom Molan, based in Riversfield Stud in Co. Limerick (chalk and cheese compared to Grangecon!) nonetheless did some seriously shrewd business when he picked up the Arab-owned Woodman mare Gorbrand (very average on the track in Dubai) privately 7 or 8 years ago to help establish his stud as a new investment venture in 2004. She produced a dual Group 1 winning 2007 Rock Of Gibraltar mare (over 8f and 10f) in South Africa as a 5yo from only her second foal and the 2009 colt Harbour Watch (by Acclamation) ran thrice and scored thrice – all over 6f – for Richard Hannon in 2011 including the G2 Richmond Stakes in 2011. Alas for connections Harbour Watch, who was ante-post favourite for the Guineas at one time, never raced again and was retired to stand at David Redver’s stud for 2013. Alas, alas, for Thomas Molan the South African victories for Europa Point came after Harbour Watch was sold as a yearling but the investment returns rang out in November 2012 when a filly foal by Lope De Vega made £150,000 at Newmarket. This followed what must have been a huge disappointment in that a 2010 colt by Cape Cross failed to make a Tattersalls appointment in 2011 and there is no record of this colt since. He would surely have made a small fortune for the breeder and is probably languishing in some paddock with the years rolling by. If the mare can produce a fashionably-bred colt any time soon it will be payola!

It’s no surprise that Molam is holding onto the Teofilo daughter (Gorteo) and receiving an early Group One entry will only enhance the sense of anticipation but any win for this filly will be very valuable. Discounting the mother’s lack of racing ability, this is a fantastic pedigree shared by both Godolphin and Coolmore. Gorteo’s fourth dam is the American-bred Fall Aspen and this mare is an absolute legend and well worth a thesis from any graduate in Darley’s Flying Start programme. Killmallock connections will be hoping to add to the storyboard.

Got To Dream – filly by Duke Of Marmalade (Kevin Prendergast)

The theme of fillies hoping to improve their pedigrees to return to the breeding shed is continued with this £50,000 Tattersalls acquisition. She will be retiring, presumably, to Linacre House Stud owned and run by Lisa and James Kelly-he of racing-manager-to-Lady-O’Reilly fame.

She is the first foal out an unraced Montjeu dam who cost Luca Cumani’s Fittocks Stud £210,000 as an in-foal 3yo in 2010 (the poor teenager!). By the sire of my impending big pay-day on Alive Alive Oh the dam is very closely related to two Sadler’s Wells winners over 12f the best of which was Roses For The Lady who was a very nice stayer for the John Oxx/Neil Jones partnership. In fact, Neil Jones is responsible for most of the recent stars in this family in that the second dam also won twice over 12f and she was a full-sister to Jones’ brightest star, none other than Millenary the winner of the 2000 St Leger. If this filly can be a good 2yo it will be something of a surprise given her very stout breeding but she looks likely to win over longer trips than the 7f of the Moyglare but I will be following her nonetheless.

Grandma’s Hands – filly by Teofilo (Andy Oliver)

Yet more support for Oliver from Barry Irwin’s Team Valor International (Panama Hat already nominated) Grandma’s Hands (a third foal) is already a half-sister to a Richard Hannon 5f winner and Ger Lyons’ recent 9f Gowran debutant Safe Home-both by Danehill Dancer. The dam won over 8f and was listed placed over 10f and was in turn a half-sister to two very good 6f and 5f-7f performers including a G2 Flying Childers 2yo winner. This is a nice speedy and prolific pedigree with most of the track representatives having the winning habit. Sure to win a few races based on her page.

By the way Team Valor's current flagship horse, Animal Kingdowm, runs at Ascot this week and I hope their bravery is rewarded.

Mezogiorno – filly by Zamindar (Michael Halford)

It’s a shame that this filly is labouring under a misspelling as it’s a name ideally suited to the progeny of Midday who produced her first foal (by Galileo) in 2013 and subsequently visited Frankel. Mezogiorno is the third foal of an unraced US-bred Point Given mare who was related to three winners including a mile winning filly who was placed in a 1m listed handicap and the very useful Dance Parade (by Gone West) who won the G3 5f Queen Mary at Ascot at 2 and the Fred Garling (7f G3) at 3 way back in 1996/97. The family was once part of Fahd Salman’s Newgate Stud operation who died aged just 47 in 2001. This Zamindar filly is a half-sister to a Motivator gelding who scored 6 times over 5f & 6f and Halford obviously has a decent opinion of her in her early strides.

Ode To Psyche – filly by Dansili ex Sadler’s Wells mare (Jessica Harrington)

Stavros Niarchos was famously part of the Ballydoyle syndicate of the eighties having bought in to join Vincent O’Brien, Robert Sangster, John Magnier and the American business man Danny Schwartz in their search for glory with American-breds from Keeneland. The best syndicate horses to run in his well-known pale blue and navy colours were Law Society and my beloved Seattle Dancer but, in his own right, Niarchos owned such wonderful thoroughbreds as Miesque, Nureyev, Machiavellian, Kingmambo, Hector Protector and Hernando. His love of horses was only outshone by his love of women and his few billion more than made up for his short stature in this regard.

His daughter, Maria, continues the love affair with the thoroughbred through Flaxman Holdings and a seemingly new Irish branch of this operation has horses in training with David Wachman and Jessica Harrington for 2013 which is very welcome to the industry here.

This filly is out of an unraced dam who is a half-sister to a 6f 2yo Group 3 winner Moon Driver who was trained by Jonathon Pease for the Niarchos family in 1999 and three other black-type performers in France and America. The second dam is a half sister to the majestic Kingmambo and she was a top class miler in her own right (won the French Guineas and Oaks) and Ode To Psyche’s great-grandmother is the mighty Miesque herself. It’s great to have a bloodline such as this back running in Ireland.

More to follow.......

Roheryn – filly by Galileo (Ger Lyons)

Another expensive acquisition by Redvers for the Qataris this time a $400,000 purchase from Keeneland September and sent to the former jumps jockey in Co. Meath. Roheryn (named after a horse in Tolkien’s “Lord Of The Rings”) is a third foal and her full brother, Freewheel, recently won a 3yo 9f maiden at Tipperary for Ballydoyle on his only start to date (“he’ll get further”). The dam, La Chunga (by More Than Ready), was a 6f Group Three winner at both 2 (Albany Stakes ar Royal Ascot) and 3 for Robert Ogden and Jeremy Noseda and, somewhat surprisingly was sold off by Ogden when she finished racing as a maiden 3yo fetching £485,000 at Tattersalls in 2006. Her earlier relatives had plenty of ability in the US. I like this one’s back story and perhaps she could be another Lightening Pearl although she may be a better three-year-old than juvenile.

Incidentally, Sheikh Al Thani and his family are likely to be to the forefront in the battle for the racing and breeding enterprise of Khalid Abdullah from which there would be little change from €1bn if Frankel was included amongst the reportedly 900 units of stock that may be sold.


Taaluf – filly by Nayef (Kevin Prendergast)

Bred by Shadwell and owned by Hamdan Al Maktoum Taaluf is the fifth foal of the dam to be trained by Prendergast from all the dam’s progeny to race. He has been successful with three of them to date (two fillies and a colt-all half-siblings to Taaluf): Reyaada – won a Galway 7f maiden at two; Jamaayel – won a Dundalk 6f maiden and a 7f Leopardstown premier nursery at two, Listed-placed (7f) at three and Estithmaar (don’t you love the names!) – unraced at two, won 8f maiden at three. KP also trained the dam to win the 6f Round Tower (L) at two and the 7f Athasi Stakes at three and Ulfah (6f winner 4 times including two listed races), Shimah (won over 6f twice, including listed-was also second in 2008 Moyglare) and Haatef (won Curragh 6f on debut and fourth in Dewhurst at two and three other races from 6f-7f at three highlighted by the 6f G2 Diadem Stakes at Ascot in 2007).

On history alone this filly will be good and would be my early call for a Moyglare “dark horse”. Keep  a very close eye on her is my advice. She also had an early entry for the Phoenix stakes-I am repeating much of my earlier comments but I think she’s worth it.


Trikala – filly by High Chaparral (Kevin Prendergast)

Yet another Friarstown candidate this Chryss O’Reilly owned and bred filly is only a second foal and she is already related to a dual 6f winner (at two in 2012) in Moohaajim who was second in 6f Middle Park, third in 7f Fred Darling but disappointed in Newmarket Guineas for Marco Botti. He (Moohaajim) was sold relatively cheaply as a yearling by O’Reilly (€40,000) although the pinhooker made a handsome profit of £160,000 when he breezed him at two and sold him on to the Maktoums. The dam won a 7f maiden on her debut at two for Weld/O’Reilly ("She had been working nicely. She is still very immature but she is a class filly and one there is plenty to look forward to for next year.") but failed to train on but she is a half-sister to a 12f Graded winner by Giant’s Causeway in the States. The second dam won the G3 CL Weld Stakes at two for Dermot Weld so there’s plenty of evidence to suggest this lady will make a juvenile.


Waltzing Matilda – filly by Danehill Dancer (Tommy Stack)

It’s coincidental that my earlier reference to the Niarchos clan sees this filly’s fourth dam (great grandmother) as the dam of Machiavellian (by the imperious Mr. Prospector). The recent family fortunes have been far less salubrious but, nonetheless, Demi O’Byrne gave $1.6m for a Storm Cat half-brother in 2005 who managed to win a 7f Naas 3yo maiden on his debut in 2007 but was really disappointing thereafter. Ballydoyle also put Waltzing Matilda’s 2009 full-brother, Vault, into training and whereas he also managed to win twice at two (6f & 7f-beating the subsequently very useful Dragon Pulse on his debut) he was eventually sold off at three for just nine grand. He was bought privately from Lynch Bages Ltd a breeding operation fronted by Coolmore’s capo Paul Shanahan who, reputedly, is the equivalent of Paulie Walnuts from the Sopranos (only joking!). The Gone West dam never managed to win (her best sibling was a 1996 Woodman colt who won the 8f G1 Gran Criterium in 1998) for Niarchos but Waltzing Matilda represents the third consecutive cover to Danehill Dancer to the mare suggesting that Vault must have promised major riches at one time. It will be interesting to see how she progresses. Stack juveniles rarely win without significant support in the market beforehand.

Finally, on this tranche of unexposed fillies, David Wachman has four unraced female juveniles and all probably warrant a modicum of respect. My pick of them are:

Little Fastnet – filly by Fastnet Rock ex Damson (D Wachman)

Damson was Wachman’s first Royal Ascot winner (5f Queen Mary) and his first Group One winner (6f Phoenix Stakes) in 2004 who failed as a 3yo. Little Fastnet is her fifth foal and she is a half-sister to three previous winners: a Giant’s Causeway filly who won over 9f and 11f; a 7f Limerick maiden winner (by Kingmambo) and a Dansili colt, Requinto, who is easily her best representative, so far, who was a good sprinter winning four times at the minimum trip including the G3 Molecomb Stakes at Glorious Goodwood and Doncaster’s Flying Childers Stakes at two-in fact he never raced beyond two years of age. Wachman trained all these winners but the fourth foal was wisely sold off as a yearling (for a very modest £32,000) and he has failed to win in five attempts for Alan Jarvis.

Little Fastnet’s sire was a champion sprinter (by Danehill) in Australia and subsequently a champion sire and he will have his first ever runners in the northern hemisphere this season to add an interesting facet to this filly. Fastnet Rock’s only starter over here to date has been Richard Hannon’s Oriel who has twice been placed over the minimum trip and failed to land the odds on both occasions.


Supposing – filly by Invincible Spirit (D Wachman)

Coolmore have contributed in no small way to the financial success of Denis Brosnan’s Croom House Stud/Epona Bloodstock and he was handsomely rewarded when they gave him £525,000 for this filly last autumn at Tattersalls. In fairness, the American-bred winning mother has a fine pedigree in that her full sister won the Del Mar Oaks (9f G1) and the EP Taylor Stakes (10f G1) and was Canadian Champion mare in 2006.

Supposing is the dam’s fourth foal and lists all previous half-siblings as winners: a dual 10f winner for Ed Dunlop, a John Gosden-trained Galileo 12f maiden winner and Cameron Highland (another Galileo colt trained by Roger Varian) who won over 9f, 10f and 12f including a listed stake at Windsor in 2012 (OR 108).

That's a detailed and most interesting post again.

Just to update a little, Bluebell moves up to stakes level next, after her maiden win at Limerick at the rewarding odds of 7/2.
Sudirman was a nr yesterday at Mallow,heavy ground most likely being the reason for his absence.David Wachman won it with his other runner at the nice odds on here of 15.5.
Sir John Hawkins most likely a Royal Ascot runner this week.
Bracelet thrown in at the deep end on her debut, came out to justify short odds in her maiden, the past week. Promising with her gorgeous pedigree.
One that catches my eye from your list RA is 'Ode to Psyche" and its a real bonus for Jesse H to have this type in her stable. Indeed its a huge plus for her to have an owner with access to such big funds  as this Niarchos lady has,she herself an offspring of Stavros, who was a Shipping Magnate, and fierce rival to Aristotle Onassiss who along with his  shipping fleet, also bagged First Lady the late Jackie. Amazing Onassiss never got stuck into the horses, as he had a hand in so much other stuff,some not so legal.He having started out in the illegal cigarette trade, moving onto cigars, to founding his Shipping Fleet, and moving oil around the world in his huge Tankers, the first of their size. Niarchos was a fierce rival to Onassiss and they were bitter enemies for a long time, and I seem to remember that they were connected by marriage in some fashion. I am sure that one of the women in the  'Niarchos' family met a violent death, with no convictions for anyone. Close one though, I seem to remember there was a trial. But dear me I digress from the matter in hand, and good luck with your thread RA.........

Jay, thanks for the contribution.

Lyons also withdrew Sniper from the same maiden and he certainly has some quality breeding in the stable this year. The winners are still trickling through with Muscle Beach (available at 14's) winning at 7/1 last week. Also Rocktique (2/1), and War Command (6/4).

Most disappointing result was proably Weld's Pirita (fourth) but I have every confidence she will be good as it looked a quality maiden. Other losers and also-rans and, in time, I will post a record of returns to SP across all runners. For a yard in relative decline I feel Kevin Prendergast should be having a much better year as he has plenty of nice horses this season. If he turns a corner he will be worth following.

I will review the National Stakes entries over the coming week or so.

JayT

thanks for the lesson above,with all their money,they never seemed to find happiness,such is life I suppose.

Keep up the contributions RA absolutely fascinating reading.

Goffs Vincent O’Brien National Stakes - 7 furlongs (88 declared)

Although eligible, not a single filly is entered for Ireland’s premier 2yo race choosing the Moyglare route instead.

Obviously many of the entries have been previously noted or, if they have run, are unlikely to be my selection.

Mr Rock – colt by Galileo ex Kitza (David Wachman)

This chap has the look of being a foal-share and is owned in partnership by Coolmore and Corkonian, Michael O’Flynn, the well-known developer who is “helping NAMA with their enquiries”. In a major blunder recently, accounts were filed for his unlimited development company, Tiger Developments, and they showed accumulated losses of some €160m. I say blunder because the whole point of “unlimited” corporate status is the exemption the company receives from having to file accounts with the company registrar annually, a neat little trick if you’re not scared of your creditors. Cue many red faces by the banks of the Lee!

In a game of circularity, John Magnier’s mother, Evie Stockwell, originally bought the dam, Kitza, as a foal and placed her in training with Aidan O’Brien in 1997 in what was probably the trainer’s second year in Ballydoyle. She was quite useful winning the listed Guineas Trial at Leopardstown before running second in both the Irish Guineas and Oaks. However her form trailed off after these exertions. Retired to stud she bred three winners up to 2006 the pick of which was a 2001 Seeking The Gold colt Fort Dignity whose best performance came in a one-mile listed event at Windsor in 2005 trained by Michael Stoute.

Aside: Seeking The Gold was a US-based non-Coolmore stallion that John Magnier had great faith in some years ago and the mighty Storm Cat was another sire who had this “very favoured” status in their American mating plans. The latest incarnation of this concept is the Claiborne horse, War Front, and boy! did this support pay off at Ascot today with the successes for Declaration Of War (St James Palace) and War Command (Coventry). There’s no doubt that the son of Danzig has sired two new stallions and Coolmore will have a representative for both Tipperary and Kentucky. I may also modestly add that War Command was another winner from my list at 20/1! I digress.

Coolmore took advantage of the building boom cash and sold this mare (in foal to Pivotal) to Michael O’Flynn for £550,000 in 2006. That foal went into training with Tommy Stack and won a Laytown bucket and spade event and a handicap at Dundalk over 11f. Racehorses of 2011 doesn’t record if O’Flynn bought a ninety-nine on the beach to celebrate. After the dizzy heights of the County Louth seaside victory Kitza produced a Galileo colt (a full-brother to Mr Rock) who was bought by Demi O’Byrne for £600,000 but failed at Ballydoyle. At least O’Flynn’s breeding operation recovered a large part of the initial investment. A return visit to Pivotal for a now 3yo failed to live up to expectations. It “only” fetched €41,000 as a yearling so it mustn’t have been a “looker”.

It’s likely that Coolmore supplied the nomination in 2010 and O’Flynn the mare to result in a jointly-owned foal. This fellow will have to seriously emulate his previous siblings if he is to justify the Group One entry but Wachman does not waste his owner’s money. It’s a nice prospect for David Wachman to train and if he’s a champion NAMA might slap a claim on him!


Boqa – colt by Danehill Dancer (Tommy Stack)

Shadwell offloaded this fellow’s dam for $220,000 in 2007 carrying a Gulch foal (who was useless) and this surprises me as she is a half-sister (by Alzao) to Coolmore’s Oratorio (the Danehill Eclipse and Champion Stakes winner in 2005 who stood in Fethard before getting his P45 and being banished to South Africa where his breeder reputedly owns a few orange groves) and, not surprisingly, she was picked up by David Nagle’s Barronstown Stud the owner probably being the most handsome, albeit ageing, breeder in Ireland. She was a three-time winner over one-mile and was rated 89. She had bred a modest 8f winner prior to this and, so far, Nagle has bred a Danehill Dancer filly that fetched €80,000 in the ring and collected a 6f maiden in 2011 for Jeremy Noseda.

It is also interesting to relate that Barronstown bought the second dam (a 1987 Vaguely Noble mare bred by Nelson Bunker Hunt and put in training with Alec Stewart by Hamdan Al Maktoum- there’s four individual names dripping in bloodstock history) for £100,000 in 1999 two years before Boqa’s dam had run up her hat-trick. As Barronstown and John Magnier’s Orpendale (another unlimited company!) bred Oratorio (by Danehill) one can see the attraction in the family for Nagle.

In a similar vein to the Tiger developments blunder mentioned above, I venture that if a Coolmore executive ever mistakenly lodged financial statements for the unlimited company Orpendale he would soon be joining Luca Brasi “sleeping with the fishes”.



Ger Lyons has been slow to get his two-year-olds running and winning (ever protective of them if there’s rain about) and he had his first juvenile scorer last week with the well-backed Exogenesis who landed a decent touch in a Fairyhouse Auction maiden for the ubiquitous colours of Sean Jones-a gelding that may well end up in the Far East continuing the “sell, sell, sell” policy of the partnership.

His average strike-rate with 2yo’s over the last 5 years is a decent 14% (considering the opposition) and this has varied from 20% in the doom-laden 2009 to just 8% in 2010. The last two years saw him win 31 juvenile races which is a very respectable total indeed. He must surely be about to play catch-up and his score in June, July and August with juveniles is usually very respectable. It will be no surprise if his Sniper, Fog Of War or Third Dimension upset more fancied rivals over the coming weeks at big odds. These three horses were nominated in my piece on the Phoenix Stakes last month.

He has two more unraced “reputation” horses to now consider that have been added to the National Stakes including the earlier three. His 5 entries are only beaten by Ballydoyle (22), Bolger (14), Weld (8) and even the usually conservative John Oxx has 9.

Obliterator – colt by Oratorio (Ger Lyons)

It’s quite a coincidence that the next horse I studied is by the exported stallion named in the preceding analysis. Oratorio wasn’t entirely bad and his best horses have been Military Attack (big 10f champion in Japan), Manawanui (big in Oz), Beethoven (Dewhurst winner) and Lolly For Dolly (Stack’s Royal Ascot winner).

Obliterator is the fourth foal of a Rainbow Quest mare who was trained unsuccessfully by Jim Bolger for Ballylinch stud. She was however a half-sister to a 12f Group 3 winner (by High Chaparral) who was third in the 2009 Oaks and a very average 7f winner by Lawman. The Lawman cover (the French Derby winner stands at Ballylinch) was repeated twice on Obliterator’s dam and was immensely successful producing an 81-rated 2009 filly 8f winner but that winner was “obliterated2 by the 2010 filly who happens to be Just The Judge, Charlie Hills recent winner of the Irish Guineas and owned by none other than Obliterator’s owner Sheikh Al Thani in partnership with the Sangsters. David Redvers can be immensely pleased with his purchase of Obliterator last October for €70,000 when Just The Judge was already a dual 7f winner (including a Newbury stake) but he was quickly a half-brother to the G2 7f Rockfel stakes winner just nine days later and her only two runs in 2013 were a Newmarket Guineas second followed by the Irish win.

This horse looks certain to win races and continues Al Thani’s quest for bloodstock industry dominance.


Snowmane – colt by Galileo (Ger Lyons)

Snowmane’s breeders, Paget Bloodstock and Churchtown Stud features many of the top Coolmore managers as directors and they made a very wise investment when buying Snowmane’s dam (by Grand Lodge) as a modestly- placed 3yo maiden handicapper for just £20,000 in 2004. Having access to the seam of gold that is Galileo they got an immediate £210,000 return on their investment with Tree Tops’ first foal in 2006 who turned out to be a 8f and 9f winner for Andre Fabre and was listed-placed. Another reason to deem the investment as very shrewd was the fact that a half-sister (by Oasis Dream) was John Murphy’s very good Tuscan Evening who won a string of stakes races in the States in 2009 and 2010. Indeed a later 2008 colt by Hurricane run also won stakes over 12f and 14f.

Tree Tops has been very “in and out” with her subsequent foals and the only one of three more foals produced (by Hawk Wing, Galileo and Montjeu) prior to Snowmane to race was a disappointment with Johnny Gosden.

The mare has a little to prove now but with Galileo on her side this is not a horse to ignore.

Fascinating read as always RA and how impressive was the war front 2yo colt today.

It would be an interesting research task to attempt to estimate Coolmore's annual global revenue but it would be difficult to estimate because of their complex stallion nominations and shares.I would imagine John Magnier's wealth is underestimated at €500 million.

Nice read before my bedtime cocoa RA, and again a name jumps off your 'post' i.e. one Nelson Bunker Hunt. He owned a whole load of horses at one stage, but ran into "Nama" style trubbl in the USA where he opted for Bankruptcy, and got into a lot of hot water over attempts to manipulate, and take over the silver market. He owned amongst others the great Vaguely Noble. How is it that these "horsey" people seem to have so much in common, i.e. nefarious activities. The "Sport of Kinks" sorry, 'Kings', that should read. Oh RA btw think maybe its 'Nama' that are helping the Flynn boys, and not the other way round. And sher we the little people are all happy to pay, through our various taxes, the big wages that Nama sees fit to throw to these mostly failed developers, who are living it up, still. And BTW I'm not sure if good old NB Hunt is still with us but he must 90 if he is.

Well done with War Command. I mist that one as I was celebrating a ST, James Palace win

Will tomorrow be your big pay day with Tommy Stacks ?

Hint of a Tint beaten just 3l today when 5th of 23 at Royal Ascot.

Oklahoma City cost 675K and is due out 2moro at Leopardstown. (Ballydoyle)

Jay, I confess to hyperbole about this horse because his record looks pure class so far and she's obviously been one of the strongest-punted MacManus flat horses in some time, obviously with plenty of encouragement from Thomastown. Berry's confidence will be sky-high after Tuesday and Stack's had plenty of recent winners. A G2 winner for the "Duke" on the ultimate stage would also help but, just maybe, the stallion will ultimately be the biggest negative to overcome?

If I was of a mind it looks a five star bet but that aint my thang at 5/2 and probably shorter. My thread (based on years of experience with this strategy) encourages "blind" following of these horses with further support should they win along the way. I back to level-stakes or a percentage of my bank and, for example, I was far more interested, financially, in Don't Bother Me yesterday (7th at 66/1 and gave me a few extra heartbeats for 4 furlongs) than I am in a shorty. This isn't everyone's cup of tea but he's just another bet as far as I'm concerned and apologies for the over-exuberance at times. On previous evidence Don't Bother Me could have been even closer yesterday (ran against the winner in April) and was a fantastic price given his form. I also find that the horses tend to win within a time window so, for example, I will review everything come August/September and start from an entirely new list for next season discarding everything for this season unless something new catches my eye in the future. Its actually quite boring once you make the selections because everything is dictated for you and this is anathema to the gambler and its why few have backed my winners.

I hope Alive Alive Oh wins as it could well encourage more flat investment by MacManus and the game needs all the money it can attract at present.

My take on the punting side of War Command: stable outsider of three but practically certain they have never raced against each other at home. Contrary to an earlier opinion on one of the Ascot threads it's not at all unusual for Ballydoyle 2yo's to run well if they are ignored in the market and to beat better fancied stable-companions. War Command was an impressive winner of his maiden ("He´s another Danzig type - speed and fast ground"), has, as you would expect, a lovely pedigree and was bred to do the job. I also backed Sir John Hawkins as I had to!!

When I conclude the thread I will post the record to LSP.

Fair enough RA., each to their own. Alive Alive Oh Non-runner today. My only bet is going to be Sudirman in the 2yr old race at Leopardstown. I think if the costly Ballydoyle fellow was fit+ready Joseph would pop back to ride.

Hope this was the new 'sweetest winner' Royal Academy..........what a winner, what a great thread. Profit gone through the roof, 20/1 sp, but bigger on here @ 33's Get in there Roca Tumu......

Well done RA, homework pays off...
This thread is a reminder that there was a time when this forum was a worthwhile read.

well done ra.it was pure luck i backed it.went into a pp at 4.15.a lad txtd me and said pp were doing 6 places so i was near one.i started to read the race and i got a momrny of clarity when i seen the name.all came back to me.had a nice ew bet a 25/1..sweet!

Hazy Days (sporting a hood), and Inkerman tonight at Naas. I don't really see Hazy winning as he is a wee bit disappointing in his last one or two runs.......

backed inkerman tonight for second and last time.

Little Fastnet out tonight in Tipperary, in what looks a winnable race. Dry fast ground, sure to suit, and interesting to see if its in any way fancied. DW's stable is hitting form so worth keeping an eye on this.

Kavvie, don't give up on Inkerman, remember there is always the Triumph Hurdle.

Pirita and Ode to Psyche meet in the first at the Curragh tomorrow.

Little Fastnet 3rd, ran ok,behind early, stayed on late, some promise, never nearer.

Sudirman wins the Railway yesterday, and today we have So Devoted and Alive Alive Oh, here we go..... Alive Alive Oha, frying cockles and rustles, so bring on the Lily whites...............

My views on past happenings on horses listed on this thread.
The slave trader Sir John Hawkins ran ok in Newmarkets July meet. He is no star though, unless he improves markedly for a step up in distance. APoB is firing in plenty winners at home and this should continue tomorrow in Kilarney with Bluebell.He often sends a good one to this fixture, and indeed seems always keen to support the smaller tracks, not being afraid to run a real good one. Lets hope Bluebell is just that.
I think Jesse's Ode To Psyche ran ok. So Devoted ran ok also at the recent Curragh fixture. Well backed early in the day, though light enough on course, should have its day, soon.
If the warm spell does continue, well we probably won't see Alive Alive Oh in the Oaks field. 
Final thought is that Hazy Days is a tad disappointing to say the least.

Mid-term Report to 31st July 2013

Since posting my recommendations since April last I have divided my horses-to-follow into two batches i.e. the older “dark” horses and the unraced two-year-olds.

Dark Horses:

The unexposed three-year olds-and-up have been doing well and retuned a profit of 51.5 points on a total of 58 bets to LSP. Highlights were Missava, Euphrasia and, of course, the dual-scorer Roca Tumu. I am eliminating many of the previous nominees and hopefully the following bunch will pay their way between now and season’s end.

So Devoted: surely now only a question of “when” now that he has been fancied in two recent runs in races with subsequent form that stands up to scrutiny.

Indy Gal: her turn cannot be far away after two decent efforts in May and June. Has possibly been given a break and looks to have a liking for soft ground. Was third at 25/1 on the day she first showed ability and almost repaid my faith then.

Ozeta: no great faith in this fellow but I am a fan of the trainer “Boots” and I am hoping there will be some hint of residual ability over the coming weeks.

Hint Of A Tint: has decent form and ran a cracker in the Sandringham. Her 4yo full-sister has only recently been in action (two runs – two wins for Robert Ogden, including on easy ground) and I am thinking that a run on soft ground might be the opportunity that will give her winning stakes form. I’m pretty confident Wachman will get the best out of her and there are loads of opportunities over the coming weeks and months.

Don’t Bother Me: I like his profile and I hope Niall Moran continues to race him against the best as he may have a big payday in him.

Mizzava: owes me nothing and I think she needed a break after recent exertions. I equate her profile to that of Don’t Bother Me and will be backing her in any company for the rest of her career.

Kentucky Woman: expect to see money for her when she next runs. Should be capable of winning something this year.

I considered the following but they don’t go on my list:

Both Tae Think Again and Mindy haven’t disgraced themselves in maidens but it would require the trainers to be in winning form before I could trust either to improve sufficiently to win.

And finally,……………………………………………….Hazy Days.

I was in the process of outlining reasons why I hadn’t entirely lost faith in him when I discovered he has left Wachman and is now with Niall Madden who has given him an early entry for a 3yo hurdle. He will probably get far more attention in his new Kildare location but a lot of my initial enthusiasm has evaporated. You usually need the barest glimpse of form in a previous run to encourage loyalty but that is missing here. I'll watch his progress nonetheless with more than mild curiosity as he reminds me of a previous Wachman inmate, Rocky Wednesday.

Two-Year-Olds:

I selected 43 youngsters of which 20 have run in 43 races and are showing a modest profit of 6.4 points at LSP mainly thanks to War Command’s win at Ascot at 20/1. There have been 9 victories from 7 starters.

When reporting on my list of unraced 2yo’s from the 2012 season I was able to claim a healthy profit on 6 winners from 23 starters first-time-out. This trend is looking pretty poor to the end of July in the current season with just 3 winners from 20 starters and a level-stakes loss of 13.4 points so far. However one very important factor to consider is that 27 of the 38 points returned last year came from 3 winners in the period post-July with winners at 5/1, 7/1 and 12/1 so I would be reasonably confident that supporting the following twenty unraced 2yo’s will return a profit from now on:

Amaradian
Derulo
Keyboard Melody
Taaluf
My Titania
Sea Of Wells
Prudent Approach
Nonchalant
Panama Hat
Caliso Bay
Ceylon
Grandma’s Hands
Mezogiorno
Roheryn
Waltzing Matilda
Supposing
Mr Rock
Boqa
Obliterator
Snowmane

most boring thread on the inrenet, like need to know all that **** want a read a book i will buy one

Last August I posted:.............. so I would be reasonably confident that supporting the following twenty unraced 2yo’s will return a profit from now on:

Amaradian: never raced

Derulo: 3 runs this spring (will be nicely handicapped and a possible future conveyance for Murtagh’s daughter)

Keyboard Melody...one modest run last month; all four of the excellent dam’s previous five foals to make the track were good winners so expect this horse to leave this debut run well behind. I expect he will not be apprentice ridden again any time soon.
Taaluf: you have to be taken by this family and Kevin Prendergast’s record with older siblings and generations. Three runs have hinted at ability and a decent handicap win could not be ruled out-perhaps after winning a modest country maiden and a mark of 70-75.

My Titania: two wins from three starts and needs to give Sea The Stars a boost. With an eye on future performances I would go for races of 10f+ based on pedigree and look for an encouraging pre-Oaks run in the Irish 1000 Guineas.

Sea Of Wells: won its only start recently at 15/8.

Prudent Approach: two modest enough starts last year considering she is a full sister to Dawn Approach. I suspect they’ll try to win a soft maiden and disappear her from view thereafter.

Nonchalant: recent winning start for Weld/Smullen at 4/1.

Panama Hat: five runs last term without success-needs to drop 9/10lbs to be competitive.

Caliso Bay: Kent knew what he had right at the start of this season (OR was just 47) and he won at a very generous 10/1 recently after a string of fancied, placed efforts.

Ceylon: just one unplaced start last season and yet to reappear. Wasn’t a bad maiden with plenty of future winners in the ranks.

Grandma’s Hands: recent 10/1 scorer on fourth start

Mezogiorno: has shown potential in recent runs after 6 starts and a combination of poor draws and possibly lying too far out of her ground has cost her recently. On the other hand she may need further than a mile. Will surely get her turn soon.

Roheryn: Lyons achieved “mission accomplished” (on her fourth start) last week at Wexford where this Galileo filly won a mile-and-a-half maiden.
Waltzing Matilda: won on her debut at 3/1 and could be of a high calibre. Fozzie Stack has suggested she may need 10f and her recent fourth in a Guineas Trial was another step forward. I think she will land a decent pattern prize this season especially on the soft ground that Danehill Dancer’s love.

Supposing: third on both starts for Wachman and should a win maiden at her level. Probably of 70-75 ability.

Mr Rock: unraced

Boqa: won third start at 6/5

Obliterator: won at 9/1 on debut last September and probably Lyons’ best horse and big white hope. On his only subsequent start he was 2nd in 9f Listed Newmarket race. True Story left the form down in the Dante this week (although the fourth and fifth have franked the form) but there was a lot of confidence behind Obliterator last month suggesting he’s working brilliantly in Glenburnie.

Snowmane: £190,000 Galileo colt who has only shown modest form in two starts for Ger Lyons although I suspect he hated the heavy ground on his latest seasonal-debuting start. Lyons hasn’t given up on him, that’s for sure: “I wasn't in love with him last season and thought he was just an honest if limited performer, but he's after doing well from two to three. Last year I'd have said he'd struggle to win his maiden, but now I'd say he'll definitely do that. “

Nine winners from eighteen starters and modest profit backing them “blind” first time up 21.5%. I still think there’s more to come from many of the above. George Kent’s winner was the most satisfying nomination thanks to the early big-race hint.
I will be closely following Taaluf, Mezogiorno, Waltzing Matilda, Obliterator and looking for more encouragement from Derulo (the daughter factor will help the price), Panama Hat and Snowmane.

"Green Eggs and Ham" still sells well they say.....

showing a profit backing them blind is to be expected, from a list so obviously well thought out, you have done well with your selections, horses that havent raced before are going to be more difficult to win with then finding horses that have already proven something on a race course. lets hope the horses on your list keep winning for you. gl