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EURO 2012 thread. News, tips etc.

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Replies: 160
By:
kiddo112
When: 31 May 12 11:41
Decent pull-out in the RP yesterday.

My main bet so far is Lewandowski to top score for the Poles @2/1 - reasons fairly obvious.

Have also had an EW interest in Nico Kranjar to top score for Croatia at a standout @20/1 with Corals. He is as short as 9/1, and generally 12/1-14/1. He didn't see much action for Spurs this season and so should be fairly fresh, and keen to put himself in the shop window. He can shoot with both feet, and takes the penalties. He top scored for the Croats in the Qualifiers with 4 goals (only 1 pen), and given the group, one goals may well be enough to be collecting.
By:
kiddo112
When: 31 May 12 11:42
*one goal
By:
Newmanix
When: 31 May 12 12:40
After watching Russia in the two warm ups, I have now deserted them.  KL you are right they are cráp.
By:
p_r_e_m_i_e_r__f_a_n_t_a_s_y
When: 31 May 12 12:45
France @ 17.5 & 12/1
England @ 12/1 & 10/1
Benzama top goalscorer @ 16/1
Benzama top French goalscorer @ 3/1
Benzama player of tournament @ 40/1


As you can guess i expect big things from Benzama Laugh

That's all so far, there are so many markets to go through (team markets etc...) which is pretty time consuming so will need all the time up to the tournament starts to finish with my bets.
By:
db1974
When: 31 May 12 13:31
Had a look at some of the special markets the last couple of days and here's a couple that stood out

Top Man City goalscorer

Selection - No goalscorer @ 7/1 (Lads & Stan). Was 8/1 with Hills (now 6/1) but 7/1 still decent enough.

At the moment the best odds are

11/8 Balotelli (1 goal from 7 caps)
5/2 David Silva (15 goals from 55 caps)
4/1 Samir Nasri (3 goals from 29 caps)
7/1 No Goalscorer
40/1 James Milner
66/1 Nigel de Jong
100/1 Gael Clichy
100/1 Joleon Lescott

Balotelli is not guaranteed to start for Italy, who tend to score very few goals anyway while Nasri has an awful strike-rate at International level to be quoted at 4/1

The only worry is Silva who actually has a decent enough strike rate of 15 from 55 but there has to be a question mark over whether he will be first choice, assuming that both Iniesta and Xavi are fit to start


Biggest Winning Margin
(Skybet only pricing this up)

http://www.skybet.com/football/euro-2012/event/14027321

Selection - < 4 goals @ 13/8

6/5: 4 goals
13/8: < 4 goals
7/2: 5 goals
12/1: 6 goals
35/1: 7 goals +

IMO the < 4 goals should certainly be favourite (even odds-on) and the 13/8 is a very generous price

In the last world cup there were 64 games and only 3 had a winning margin of 4 goals or more, one of which was Portugal beating North Korea 7-0 and there's no North Korea here. The worry is that it was Germany who won both the other matches 4-0 (against Australia and Argentina)

In EURO 2008 there was no match with a winning margin of more than 3 goals. There were 2 x 4-1 results and 2 x 3-0 results but none with a 4+ margin

Also the way international football has gone, the vast majority of teams are happy to go 2 goals up and take their foot off the pedal to conserve energy, especially in a 4-week long tournament where fitness can play such a vital role in prolonging a teams stay.


Team to concede fewest goals
(Paddy Power & William Hills only)

http://www.oddschecker.com/football/internationals/
euro-2012/team-to-concede-least-goals

6/1: Spain
9/1: England, France, Italy
10/1: Russia
11/1: Holland
12/1: Germany, Portugal
14/1: Croatia, Czech, Poland, Ukraine
18/1: Greece, Sweden
33/1: Ireland
40/1: Denmark

Selection: Ireland @ 33/1 (Hills) - Paddy is only 18/1

33/1!!!!!!

If there's one thing we all know about Ireland, it's that they don't concede goals. We don't score too many either but we sure as hell don't concede. And we are in the group with the 2 biggest 1-0 merchants in World Football (Spain & Italy)

It is very possible that we will be knocked out of the tournament with 1-0 defeats to both Spain & Italy and a 0-0 draw with Croatia. In fact 2 x 0-0 draws wouldn't be a major surprise where this Irish team is concerned.

It's a 33/1 shot so I wouldn't be steaming in but with some of the market favs likely to have 4 or 5 or even 6 games that just means more opportunities to concede while Ireland will possibly only have 3 matches (4 at the max IMO)
By:
db1974
When: 31 May 12 13:36
Apologies for the above re Team to concede the least goals

Prices are wrong as Hills have slashed some of them so the best prices are:

7/1: Spain
9/1: England, France, Italy
10/1: Russia
12/1: Holland, Germany, Portugal
14/1: Croatia, Czech, Poland, Ukraine
18/1: Greece, Sweden, Ireland
22/1: Denmark
By:
Steveirll
When: 31 May 12 22:46
were are these bets, Top Goal Scorer for there country like Lewansky for Poland...or what ever his name is lol
By:
BJG
When: 31 May 12 23:26
http://www.oddschecker.com/football/internationals/euro-2012

All there
By:
reb
When: 01 Jun 12 10:49
The Guardian's preview of Euro 2012 is excellent and today includes a cartoon history of Irish Football - Big Jack's memory (or lack of it) for names features prominently.   


http://www.guardian.co.uk/football/video/2012/jun/01/euro-2012-republic-of-ireland-animated-history
By:
Newmanix
When: 02 Jun 12 07:40
excellent write up db
By:
RamonSanchezPizjuan
When: 02 Jun 12 10:57
Newmanix Joined: 14 Aug 08
Replies: 2139 31 May 12 12:40 
After watching Russia in the two warm ups, I have now deserted them.  KL you are right they are cráp.


Russia are far from crap, i have never seen Ireland dominated like they were in Moscow, it could have been 5/6 that evening.

They are a side that get better with momentum and with the group they have they will get that. They are not the most reliable outfit but they are dangerous, a good midfield with Zyryanov, Shirokov, Dzagoev who is top class, Denisov. Their strike force is decent with POG, PAV and Kershakov. Defence is the problem as the centre back are slow but Ignashevich and Berezutkiy have a heap of experience, Zhirkov and Anyukov are top full backs who bomb forward and two top keepers in Akinfeev and Malafeev. Arshavin is not up to much these days but does play his best stuff with the national side. My dark horses for the tournament.
By:
BJG
When: 02 Jun 12 13:21
Russia were nt too bad last night - Italy were bloody terrible tho ShockedShocked
By:
kiddo112
When: 04 Jun 12 15:40
Another plus for Russia is that they have good club team continuity, CSKA Moscow in defence & Zenit in midfield. Definite dark horses imo.
By:
JayTrumpOldTomDubbl
When: 04 Jun 12 19:32
England are a massive price for trading purposes, cause if the get through a few rounds they will be well down in single figures, surely.................
By:
punkha1
When: 04 Jun 12 20:09
^ ^
In fairness surely that applies to every team in the competition.
By:
punkha1
When: 04 Jun 12 20:10
Dont mean single figures but price maybe halfing.
By:
squigs
When: 04 Jun 12 20:31
England not good enough to do anything really, I think they are 50/50 to get through the group at best.
By:
Monte Christo
When: 04 Jun 12 20:54
Personally think England are a lay to even qualify out of the group.

They have an atrocious record in the Euro main championships (apart from when hosting it in 1996) and this is arguably the worst squad they've ever sent.

I've even had a small bet at 5's on them finishing bottom of their group.
By:
dillinger
When: 04 Jun 12 21:07
i am with Russia too , price is too big for the group they are in albeit they face group B in next game but they are strong and manager has pedigree and we were dominated by them and we hung in by the grace of God and Dunne !!
By:
Newmanix
When: 05 Jun 12 00:27
Hungary are worse finishers than us.  Very lucky to keep our 11th clean sheet in 14 games.
By:
morpteh mackem
When: 05 Jun 12 09:53
anyone know why mclean didnt start or not on bench last night ? bit biased here but if someone can explain to me how hunt is a better player than mclean im watching the wrong sport.
By:
db1974
When: 05 Jun 12 10:13
The reason he didn't start is because the team that started last night is the team that will start against Croatia, injuries permitting

McGeady played himself into the team with his performance against Bosnia
By:
Monte Christo
When: 05 Jun 12 10:26
Yes last night's team shall be the one to start against Croatia.

However I still feel James McClean will have a big part to play in the tournament.
By:
padlock
When: 05 Jun 12 12:26
midfield are shockingly bad,think they will go 4-5-1 v croatia
however surely need 3points against croatia and try to get draws v spain + italy
By:
Dan Chipowski
When: 05 Jun 12 13:43
Last night was very worrying viewing from an Irish perspective. I know it was only a friendly etc etc, but Hungary should have had 4 goals.
By:
p_r_e_m_i_e_r__f_a_n_t_a_s_y
When: 05 Jun 12 20:12
France @ 17.5 & 12/1
England @ 12/1 & 10/1
Benzama top goalscorer @ 16/1
Benzama top French goalscorer @ 3/1
Benzama player of tournament @ 40/1


Added some more:

Samir Nasri top goalscorer @ 250
Jakub Blaszczykowski top goalscorer @ 250
Joe Hart player of tournament @ 100/1
Samir Nasri player of tournament @ 66/1
By:
Monte Christo
When: 05 Jun 12 20:23
Pf there's a strong french bias to your bets there.Laugh

You're obviously expecting them to do well.
By:
p_r_e_m_i_e_r__f_a_n_t_a_s_y
When: 05 Jun 12 20:27
I think they have a massive chance of winning the comp, have thought they where well overpriced for quite a while. Since Blanc has took over they seem to have some sort of continunity (Evra did his best to fack it up though) and they have a really good record under him. If they do win their group which they are more than capable off they meet the 2nd placed team in Irelands group so looks like either Croatia/Ireland/Italy and i'd fancy them against all 3. They then would have to meet someone along the lines of Germany/Holland/Portugal/Russia which is obviously tough but they avoid Spain until the final if both teams win their respective groups which is a big positive in my view.
By:
Monte Christo
When: 05 Jun 12 20:32
I agree with all your points there tbh.

Benzema has had a good season as well and looks really sharp so he could be a big player in the top scorer market.

4/5 goals always seems to win it so he might score a hat-trick against England Devil for you.
By:
p_r_e_m_i_e_r__f_a_n_t_a_s_y
When: 05 Jun 12 20:36
What a goooooooooaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaallllllllllllllllllll Benzama just scored Laugh
By:
Monte Christo
When: 05 Jun 12 20:40
Laugh
By:
squigs
When: 06 Jun 12 14:36
Team       Average Age
Germany        24.52
Poland         25.13
England        26.04
Denmark        26.57
France         26.65
Spain          26.78
Croatia        27.09
Portugal       27.08
Netherlands    27.13
Greece         27.17
Czech Republic 27.26
Ukraine        27.30
Italy          27.91
Sweden         28.30
Russia         28.34
Ireland        28.35

Average age of the squads in Euro 2012, Ireland have come in with the oldest squad while Germany's is the youngest squad to ever compete in a European championship.

Spain were the youngest team in Euro 2008 and certainly since then there has been a trend towards younger squads performing well.

Germany in 2010 were the 3rd youngest team out of 32 and Spain were the 5 youngest out of 32. Uruguay were the 9th youngest, Holland bucked the trend as the 10th oldest team in the competition.

The two teams that arguably disappointed the most at the world cup in 2010. Brazil and England were the oldest and second oldest squads respectively.

I think Germany are the best team in the competition. France have a nice enough group and will be my outright bet. I might just cool my jets a bit on the Russian team with a real lack of youth at the back though they have a good group. Poland as hosts and have a youthful squad with a good group and may even reach a semi final.
By:
kiddo112
When: 06 Jun 12 19:59
Have decided on my Russia bet. While I do fancy them strongly to get out of the group, they are plenty short enough at 4/9. Given the likely quality of QF & SF opponents, I don't see them getting to the final. So I will split stakes on the "stage of elimination" @27/20 for the QF with Sportingbet and @6.6 for the SF on here.

This pays just shy of 8/11 (1.713), versus the 4/9 to qualify - the only difference being it's a loser if they make the final.
By:
Monte Christo
When: 06 Jun 12 21:33
Guys

In case anyone is unaware there is a Euro 2012 competition on the Football Forum run by BCM 2.

Add's an additional bit of interest to the tournament.

Good luck.
By:
Paddy Hair
When: 07 Jun 12 04:19
I think the England Squads age is deceptive as they have just brought in Kelly from Liverpool, a young keeper from God knows where to cover for Ruddy and have Oxlade Chamberlain who is unlikely to start. The average age of the players on the field is what counts.What would the squad age be if they still had Lampard and Rio.
By:
Paddy Hair
When: 07 Jun 12 04:21
After all that, i am a Russia vs France Final . Backed both to win on Benzema and Pavyluychenko to be top scorers. I think Ireland will lose to Spain but could get results against the other to 2 to make the quarter finals.
By:
squigs
When: 07 Jun 12 09:49
It's a bit deceptive Paddy Hair, but they never selected Ferdinand so that was a n/r. Also Lampard takes the place probably of either Gerard or Parker who are both 32 so not much difference is made. I'll take the England team against Belgium and replace Cahill with Lescott.

Hart 25

Johnson 27
Lescott 29
Terry   30
Cole    31
Milner  26
Parker  31
Gerrard 32
Oxlade-Chamberlain 18
Young   26
Welbeck 21

296/11 = 26.9 years

It's older then the overall squad but it's definitely a younger England team then previous years.
By:
donemynuts
When: 07 Jun 12 10:16
Its 33/1 but I think worth a bet.  Lowest scoring team - Italy.  We are capable of keeping a clean sheet against them, Spain certainly are and Croatia are no mugs either.  Big price imo
By:
reb
When: 07 Jun 12 10:21
In betting terms this is the worst Euro or World Cup that I've seen. There has been very little real value to be found. It's like getting Evens on the toss of a coin !
By:
Rocketfingers
When: 07 Jun 12 11:38
So far for the first round of games taking on the co-hosts, so betting Greece+0.5 and Sweden+0.25 both on the ahc
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