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Cheltenham 2012 - Ante post portfolio
Cheltenham 2012 - Ante post portfolio
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Some interesting thoughts above. I'm sure this thread will get busier in the coming weeks.
From talking to two lads whose opinion I'd listen to, I've had a few bob on Final Approach at an average of 403 for the Champion Hurdle. I've also been chipping away at Oscar Whiskey in the same race, average so far being 41. Only realistic challenger to Hurricane Fly I feel and was happy to note that from "definitely" going for the World Hurdle he's now rated only "60-40" by the owner to run in that. Had a few quid on Empire Levant at 42 and 40 for the County Hurdle after his second to last run, which I was hugely impressed with. He may not have beaten much, admittedly. I'm torn now as to whether I want him to win the Betfair Hurdle at Newbury (which I've also backed him for) or for Mr Nicholls to mind his handicap mark. |
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Hi cluain Meala
Some nice prices there good luck with the first and third as I obviously want OW to go the world hurdle route.  As for the four championship races mixed fortunes so far Oscars Well i believe will run a big race in the CH but realistically we are looking at what's filling the minor places. Ireland will surely have the winner of the QM and hopefully Pady can come home in a place. I really think Oscar Whisky can put it up to Big Bucks and am really looking forward to it. As for Captain Chris I doubt he will run in the Gold Cup now so. |
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Anyone else sorely tempted by the 7/1 best price Boston Bob for the Neptune, the Hobbs yoke will probably go for the 3 miler and this fella looks the classic Mullins Neptune hoss, don't think Willie likes the 3 miler. Some of my fav racing days have involved Mullins 2m5f Chelts novice hurdle winners, I've a 50 coiled here, surely he won't go for the plodders race
Thoughts lads? |
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Racing Post Arkle
A rundown of the contenders in betting order : Sprinter Sacre – 5-2 third in the supreme novices last year when he might have been outstayed on the run in.Since going over fences he has been very impressive thrashing Peddlers Cross by 24 lengths at Kempton over Christmas.He has certainly been a lot of people’s idea of the banker.The last short priced winner of this race was Azertyuiop back in 2003 and he was’nt a bad horse.Will be taking on Cue Card at Newbury in a fortnight which will tell us much more.Definitely the one to beat at this stage but not my type of price ante post. Peddlers Cross – 5-1 Gutsy horse who ran up a series of wins over timber before going down by 1 1/4lengths to the Fly in last year’s Champion before bombing out at Aintree.Recorded two victories over fences before being well beaten at Kempton by Sprinter Sacre.The noises coming from the McCain yard are that the horse might even go straight to the festival.He has excellent course form and will surely be a major threat on the day and looks an each way certainty. Al Ferof – 6-1 Winner of the Supreme last year when he seemed to outstay his rivals.Won his first two races over fences before trying his elders in the VC Chase.To my eyes the horse did not jump well enough to win an arkle in what was hardly a searing pace either.In the arkle I feel he will be staying on well enough perhaps nicking a place at the end.Might need further than this. Cue Card – 10-1 Mightily impressive winner of the 2010 bumper who then finished fourth in last years Supreme.Since going over fences he has looked far from comfortable even unseating on his 2nd start. Will definitely not get away with those types of mistakes in the frantic pace of an arkle. Menorah – 16-1 2010 Supreme Novices winner but this proved the height of his success over timber.He unseated on his first start over fences before recording what seemed like back to back confidence boosters.Fell again at Doncaster at the weekend and Hobbs has said he’ll jump better at a faster pace.However I’ll not be paying to find that out. The Irish Challenge Of the total 27 entered we have 10 with a quick summary as follows : Bagber – 66-1 unlikely to run in this race but if he did it would surely be to give his owners a day out. Baily Green – 100-1 another one who must be very unlikely to turn up. Blackstairmountain – 20-1 very disappointing run today and has hardly set the world alight on his two previous course visits.Would surely be lacking the class to win an arkle. Bog Warrior – 20-1 He looked a really smart chaser in the making after two victories at Navan ( where he beat Flemenstar ) and Fairyhouse.However he fell at Leopardstown over Christmas and I would like to see him run in the Moriarty before parting with any hard earned yet. Might go for the Jewson instead and surely questions as to him getting his ground at the festival. Shot From The Hip – 25-1 Think he is another one that might go down the Jewson route. Sir Deschamps – 33-1 Love this horse and he won the martin pipe at last years festival when he came home very strongly.Will surely run elsewhere and will be a major player in whatever race he runs in. Call The Police – 40-1 again not sure if he would actually run here. Foildubh – 66-1 as above Lucky William – 66-1 as above Nearest The Pin– 66-1 as above . Selection At this stage it is very difficult to look beyond the top three in the betting and I think this race could fall apart. Peddlers Cross 1 pt e-w @ 5-1. I honestly think the horse will be better suited at Cheltenham and that he can reign in Sprinter Sacre here in what promises to be a cracking race. Be interested to hear what people's thoughts are on this race. |
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Id have to agree - impossibe to look past the top 3 in the betting
I just have a nagging doubt about SS gettin up the Hill so preference for me would also be for PC ew |
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If I was to go for one outside of the Gold cup/Champion Hurdle races I think it just has to be Sprinter Sacre, Noel Meade said recently on the Post that he's the best for some time....Sprinter Sacre nap at this early stage........
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Good man Monte Christo, a nice write up there.
I reckon you'll get your wish regarding Oscar Whisky as he's now 60 for the Champion Hurdle. I can't resist so I'll have another few quid at that price. As a matter of interest, does anyone know when entries are out for a race ye were discussing above - the Cross Country Chase? |
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Thanks cluain meala.
As regards Oscar Whisky what a dilemma. Take on the Fly or Big Bucks ? I would love to be in that owner's position. As regards the cross country i thought i read somewhere that it was Feb 26 but i stand to be corrected and wil double check now. |
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Donn McCleans article about Cheltenham in the Post today should warn anyone about the perils of ante post punting at Cheltenham with all the extra races.You have to wait for non runner no bet.A friend of mine had a horse which could have ran in 7 races a week before Cheltenham.Please wait for NRNB,you are a mug if you dont.
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totally disagree with that ^^
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We dont even know what the ground is yet.
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Think its grass although some call it Turf dont know why we feckin burn the stuff
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I agree with you PF, you wait for NRNB and you get half the price. Nothing beats trying to figure out which horses run in what races and taking the big prices
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Betting preview to National Hunt's blue riband....
http://starbets.ie/horse-racing/quito-can-get-into-cheltenham-gold-cup-mix/ |
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If Wille Mullins brings Mikael D'Haguenet at Cheltenham, it's surely at the World Hurdle rather than the Champion. He has entries in both.,
They have been trying for a year to make a chaser out of him and it hasn't worked, That's hardly a negative. It would be different if he was a year out with injury. On his best form he is head and shoulders above all bar Big Bucks, who would be in a different race himself if he could jump a fence. He has Grade 1 form over course and a furlong shy of distance and is the only horse who might have the class to give Big Bucks a race. In my opinion, if he runs, the 20.0 available here is big and the 4.0 to be placed is enormous. I'm on. |
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good for you think this has no chance
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Might run in the Coral cup either,so that makes it 3 races which it MAY run in,not including not going at all.Taking the guessing out of it,and wait for NRNB.
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2 jollys not running,Fingal Bay and Minsk,Peddlers might go for the Jewson,Kauto stiff..........Any one for Ante Post ?????
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Hammy
That's the joys of ante-post betting for sure. Most of the books are now NRNB so gonna preview a lot of the races this week and try and get a bit of value before next week's purge. |
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Nightmare.
Should have given Donn McClean €500 and he would have advised me properly. |
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Peddlars Cross out of the Arkle - runs in d Jewson
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Was really looking forward to the Arkle,I thought it would be one of the races of the festival.
Looks like we'll have to just pick the f/c now. |
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It certainly makes Paddy P offer very juicy now,forget about the f/c,charge to paddys!
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