Irish Sports
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02 Jan 12
16:17
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17 Mar 04
Going to place a bet each week on the run up to Chelters to see how i fare.Last few years have been a bit of a minefield with non runners and the additional races clouding targets etc.
However with Ladbrokes going NRNB it will give a bit of a safeguard should anything untoward happen.Decided to start with the easier race imo.
1st Race World Hurdle
Oscar Whisky 1 pt e-w @ 5/1. Surely a bet to nothing.Looks a class horse with a lovely turn of foot who could give BB a race imo and is surely the only horse entered which could improve enough to beat BB.
Big Bucks - Seems bombproof and in his last two runnings he did not even hit his customary flat spot.However Nicholls has said he will run in the Cleeve Hurdle ( a race he by-passed in his last 2 seasons) which might leave it's mark. Maybe i'm clutching at straws there though.
1000 Stars - Admirable horse who won the county in 2010 and ran well in the 2011 CH.Is he classy enough to win this ?
Voler La Vedette - Tough mare who was well beaten by Quevega on her only previous appearance at the track.Big questions to answer at this level.
Rock on Ruby - maybe CH bound ?????
Mourad - 3rd last year but after a very disappointing run last time could not be backed with any great confidence
Any thoughts/opinions welcome lads.Feel free to post your own selections and we'll see who wins the most and give the books a good hiding.
I'll have a ganders at the Gold Cup now.
However with Ladbrokes going NRNB it will give a bit of a safeguard should anything untoward happen.Decided to start with the easier race imo.
1st Race World Hurdle
Oscar Whisky 1 pt e-w @ 5/1. Surely a bet to nothing.Looks a class horse with a lovely turn of foot who could give BB a race imo and is surely the only horse entered which could improve enough to beat BB.
Big Bucks - Seems bombproof and in his last two runnings he did not even hit his customary flat spot.However Nicholls has said he will run in the Cleeve Hurdle ( a race he by-passed in his last 2 seasons) which might leave it's mark. Maybe i'm clutching at straws there though.
1000 Stars - Admirable horse who won the county in 2010 and ran well in the 2011 CH.Is he classy enough to win this ?
Voler La Vedette - Tough mare who was well beaten by Quevega on her only previous appearance at the track.Big questions to answer at this level.
Rock on Ruby - maybe CH bound ?????
Mourad - 3rd last year but after a very disappointing run last time could not be backed with any great confidence
Any thoughts/opinions welcome lads.Feel free to post your own selections and we'll see who wins the most and give the books a good hiding.
I'll have a ganders at the Gold Cup now.
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Should add that i was gonna do this on the premise of the Tom Segal ante-post feature in the RP.
I believe he is doing the GC tomorrow so will post the selection in that later. |
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I reckon from the comments I have read that Spirit Son my be the best of the \henderson 2 mile hurdlers, read today that he was working very well and will probably run in a few weeks, might take in that Sandown Contenders Hurdle that Binocular often does, I'm pretty sure I saw 10's for him over the weekend with possibly powers. Reading the comments |Geraghty makes about Grandouet, he is nearly always damning him with faint praise whereas he seems to speak more highly of this fella. I think 10's might be a bit of value
On a somewhat related note, Ruby advised us all to take the 11/4 available about HF in todays paper and double it with BB. Haven't checked, but I'd be surprised if he was as big as 11/4 anywhere except maybe here? |
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neill, what paper?
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Racing Post today, was in town so had a read and availed myself of some coffee
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If you had a free bet of £50 to place on the Cheltenham Festival now who would you put it on?
Denis O' Regan - Sprinter Sacre. Straightaway and without a doubt. He's a machine. Ruby Walsh - I'd take the 11/4 about Hurricane Fly and then double him with Big Bucks. |
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Cheers, the er festivities have taken their tole on me.
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HF best priced 11/4 with SJ ,3.55 on here
SS best priced 10/1 with coral,,9.4 avail on here I am a massive spirit son fan-I think the form of the first 4 home in last years supreme is rock solid. Anyone know has waaheb had a setback?This year's supreme contenders don't look the strongest yet. |
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I could not back Hurricane Fly ante post. No matter how much Willie tells us he just wasn't happy with the horse and he is nearly ready, i will believe it when i see him on a racecourse again in a race.
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Agree completely about Waaheb, if he jumps he'll be a monster, different dicipline I know, but didn't he wallop Cash and Go and EOG is on record as saying C&G's Leopardstown win was not unexpected. Waaheb is also available at 10's and that looks very good to me, just the fact that he didn't run in that 4yo maiden that Weld likes, he may go the flat staying route, plenty of handy 1m6f listed and Group 3 races in Ireland to be had and DK knows exactly what is required. this is why I haven't stepped in, oh and chronic financial shortage after Christmas
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14.5 available on waaheb to back for supreme,over the last few weeks there has always been money waiting to back at 14,15,16 etc and now today the shortest waiting to back him is at 40,wondering if news of a setback or injury is imminent?
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Just saw similar on ante post Chelts forum, seems I've dodged one so, really must research these things better, cheers, grand horse wherever he goes, I've also forgotten the fact he was sold to JP so yes hurdling must be the plan
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Neil d -I don't think he will go the flat route cos I think jp would prefer to win supreme novices than a listed flat race imo.
He is a big weak horse but he's all class. He is a super leaper, he jumps like a stag and he could have a huge future over jumps. D K Weld, This was said tho bf Weld's son sold him He beat cash and go 9 lengths at limerick giving him 3lbs |
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Sorry there didn't see ur last post Neil d ,will check ante post forum thanks
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No bother, I usually need reminding these days because I'd read JP had bought him but forgot
I've my eye on one who is a little bit dark for the Byrne Group Plate over 3 miles, Premier Sagas is his name, Nicky Richards trains, ran well over what is probably an inadequate 2 and a half mile trip at Musselburgh yesterday. He wasn't disgraced in the |Centenary novices last year at the festival and generally I like the way he jumps and travels. I've a feeling Richards is prepping him for something and I think he could be a nice high 140's horse in time, just a hunch, I know the trainer doesn't have the ammo he once did, but I'd say this is one of his better inmates. |
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Cheltenham Gold Cup
Here are my thoughts and apologies for any glaring errors/omissions. The contenders in betting order : Long Run – 11-4 (9-4 lads) the reigning champion who despite making bad mistakes at two fences last year simply outstayed his older rivals on the run in.In two runs this year has been defeated twice by Kauto Star but in the King George he was gaining at the line despite not jumping as fluently.Surely the Gold Cup will play more to his strengths.SWC has taken a lot of criticism but he knows the horse well. Definitely the one to beat. Kauto Star – 9-2 (7-2 lads ) the horse of a generation who having looked finished at Punchestown came back this year to win the betfair chase and king George apparently putting the young pretender in his place.Surely statswise at 12 it is too big an ask for him to reclaim the title he last won in 2009.However if any horse can do so it is this boy and if he won it they would need a new roof at Cheltenham.Head over heart this time though for me. Grands Crus -– 9-1 (6-1 lads ) Ridiculous price for a novice.The last novice to win this race was Captain Christy I believe.Has taken really well to fences after an excellent season last year hurdling only losing to Big Bucks at home.Lost to Thousand Stars at Auteil when the ground might have been too soft.Surely David Pipe will run him in the RSA so pass for me. Synchronised – 12-1 gen incl.lads.Admirable horse who won the lexus on what most people thought would be unsuitably quick ground.No doubt he stays well having won the Midlands and Welsh grand nationals in the past.Will not be disgraced but I will give up gambling if he wins this. Captain Chris – 20-1 (16-1 lads) 2011 Arkle winner (did me a big favour) who many thought would be better going right handed.Would probably have won the Haldon Gold Cup back in early November but for unseating and would appear to have no chance on his King George run.However I’m a big believer in festival/course form and he has 2 wins & a second from 3 runs here.At only 8 I believe there may be still some improvement in him. Time For Rupert – 20-1 gen incl.lads.Went off the 7/4 favourite for the RSA last year but never appeared to be travelling yet finished 5th despite having bled.Had a nice confidence booster prior to Christmas but I would want a bigger price before backing at this stage. Weird Al – 20-1 gen incl.lads.Won the Charlie hall at wetherby in November before finishing 3rd to Kauto in the betfair chase when he appeared to stay on well at the end. Genuine enough horse who may just lack the class of a gold cup winner. Diamond Harry – 25-1 (20-1 lads) 2010 Hennessy winner who finished fourth in the betfair which was his only race since that win.Pulled up in the 2010 RSA and seems a bit fragile imo so can let him go as well. The Irish Challenge Well after the lexus it appears that our stayers are a mediocre bunch at best so what do we actually have : Quito De La Roque – 33-1 ( 20-1 lads) was being hyped up as our next big hope after wins at Navan,Aintree & Punchestown.This season I don’t delieve he has fulfilled the hype by basically outstaying Sizing Europe before being walloped by Synchronised.For that reason I’m out. Rubi Light – 33-1 ( 25-1 lads) a very nice horse indeed but does he truly stay ? never mind being up to true Grade 1 level so another one to ignore. Joncol – 50-1 ( 40-1 lads) will be carrying out his other role as a police horse when this race is on. Jessie’s Dream – 33-1 ( 20-1 lads)2nd in the RSA last March to Boston’s Angel when he seemed to be worried out of it but has not been sighted since.BA has hardly franked the form subsequently.Would definitely want to see him run before even contemplating parting with any hard earned. Bostons Angel – 50-1 ( 33-1 lads) winner of the RSA last March but has fluffed his copybook since. Definitely not an ante post prospect at present China Rock – 66-1 ran well in last year’s race before being pulled up but has not been sighted since.Has anyone any news on this one ? . Quel Esprit - too many ???? at this point in time. Selection Captain Chris 1 pt e-w @ 16-1. Taking a chance here as to his stamina but definitely think he is a spring horse with excellent course form.Hobbs said that he missed some work prior to the KG and that he was not 100 %. |
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I hope you're right, I took 33/1 NRNB after the King George
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Great thread.
I'd agree about Oscar Whisky for the WH, if there is ever a horse to tackle the great Big Bucks it's him. Connections were keen on the WH last year but i think they made the right decision waiting a year. Does anyone know whats on the agenda for Thousand Stars? I've just done one bets for Cheltenham.. Arkle - Al Ferof @ 7/1. Sprinter Sacre has a firm hold at the head of the market after romping over Peddlers Cross and deservedly so but I think Al Ferof will outstay SS and the rest of the field. The SN hurdle is an ideal example of how he used his stamina to good use outstaying the Henderson due Spirit Son, Sprinter Sacre and Cue Card. I think Somersby could be an interesting bet in the Ryanair, Henrietta Knight has been leaning towards this race rather than the Gold Cup and finally she has copped on about running him over 2m, in my opinion around 2 and a half would be perfect for him. |
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Henrietta Knight should look at running Somersby in the Irish Hennessey, Mordin put up a good case for it the other week. It would anwser all the imponderables hanging over the horse and they would at least know where they stood, watching the lexus, he doesn't have much to fear as most of our staying chasers couldn't even lay up with the likes of Kauto Star.
what is more, I think the executive at Leopardstown should be getting after the British trainers to enter their horses in these races, I'm sick of seeing the same few showing up every week, this race is more prestigious then an Ascot chase or the Aon (Denman, They should be getting onto King (Medermit), Hobbs (Wishful Thinkin Captain Chris), Henderson (Burton Port), Williams (Diamond Harry) Ferdy Murphy (Kalahari King) Ascot can get gelding sprinters to fly accross the world for less money for the prestige, Leopardstown should be doing the same, they have the prize money, it doesn't make sense to me. Ted walsh is always going on about such and such prize money being 'for export', is this glib view the reason for the passive approcah of the guys at leopardstown, the Tatts Gold Cup and the irish Champion are going as bad, come on guys, step it up!! |
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Neill some good points there.
I often wondered if the english trainers simply prefer to keep their horses at home in the run up to cheltenham rather than travel over here.Old habits die hard so to speak. Certainly most of our prestigious staying chases would be easy pickings at the minute. |
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Cheltenham does seem to be King at the expense of the rest of the season alright, they do seem far more amenable to coming over for Punchestown in late April early May
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Interesting comments neill d.
Agree, the Hennessy would be an ideal race for connections to see where they stand with Somersby, but from reading the latest reports on the horse all roads lead to Cheltenham with him. As said above our staying chasers are well down the pecking order incomparison to the British. Alot of horses that would be hammered out of sight in Grade 1 staying chases in Britain would stand a firm chance in ours eg. Syncronised (Lexus). Awful to see the likes of Syncronised coming over and whipping our best. I'd expect Paul Nicholls to have something to come over in Feb. There's is a pot there for the taking! |
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Champion Hurdle
Have been going through this race over the weekend. Obviously the key horse here is the current champion Hurricane Fly. Absolute machine but at this stage he is not my idea of an ante post bet even @ 7/4 NRNB. The horse that my lucky pin has come down on is Oscars Well. This horse really interests me.Came fourth in the Neptune last season after a bad blunder at the last and despite taking a keen hold early on. He has been running ok this season despite Jessie's not being in the best of form and i believe this horse will benefit from the fast pace which we always get in the champion hurdle. Selection Oscars Well 1 point e-w 25-1 NRNB |
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Interesting selection MC.
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Impressed with him yesterday and Meade says he'll go straight to Cheltenham, sorry Norn, 25 Ew at 16's, Monksland and 15 Ew double Monksland and Cue Card for the Arkle. Normally wait till nrnb, but prices are right for Ew at present.
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have only lucky 15 done so far
monksland dylan ross cue card finians rainbow so far all e/w prices |
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have only lucky 15 done so far
monksland dylan ross cue card finians rainbow so far all e/w prices |
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Good luck with those.
I never do multi's except for the festival when I always wait till day of race tbh. This year I have started with the championship races as they are NRNB. As the weeks go on i'll target the supporting races and hopefully have a nice portfolio come Cheltenham. Well that's the plan anyways. |
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The place parts of those bets can really add up alright, best of luck with them, might look at doing one myself
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U beat the price anyway MC b4 Mr pricewise knicked it
 Waaheb ruled out of the festival today as expected with the betting fwiw |
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Hi BJG
So far his ante - post selections have mirrored mine.Maybe he is following this thread Bad news about Waaheb but it's that time of year when we all anxiously await the news on our long term fancies for each race with fingers crossed. |
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First one in the bin already
 Waaheb 10/1 - Supreme Nov. Sprinter Sacre 5/2: Arkle Hurricane Fly - Champ.H'dl Quevega 5/4 - Mares H'dl Boston Bob 16/1 PP - Neptune Grands Crus 2/1 - RSA Sizing Europe 5/2 - Q.M. Captain Chris 10/1 - Ryanair Big Bucks 4/7 - World H. Arnaud 33/1 - Triumph Mount Benbulben 14/1 - Albert B. Long Run 5/2 - G.C. Baby Run 5/1 - Foxhunters |
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Taken from Starbets.ie yesterday....
Irish have Champion Hurdle wrapped up again IN the first of four betting previews to the Cheltenham festival's four key championship races, Robert Catterson has a look at this year's Stan James Champion Hurdle on March 13th. IT wasn't long ago when Irish-trained horses went through a dominant spell in the Stan James Champion Hurdle at the Cheltenham festival, winning seven out of nine runnings from 1998-2007, and following Hurricane Fly's awesome victory in the race 12 months ago, there's every chance that we'll double up again in March. The good news for Hurricane Fly fans in recent days was that Willie Mullins' superstar came through a racecourse gallop at Leopardstown with flying colours and from being available at 11/4 on the morning of that pleasing workout last week, the best price on offer about Hurrucane Fly come the end of the day was 9/4. And don't expect that price to last much longer either. It has been a frustrating couple of months for Hurricane Fly fans with the nine-time Grade 1 winner missing intended engagements at Fairyhouse and Leopardstown but Willie Mullins gave his first serious indication that his stable star was close to returning to action with his satisfaction last week and it's all systems go now for the Irish Champion Hurdle on January 29th. Mullins has repeatedly said that he will not run Hurricane Fly until he is 100% happy with the champion hurdler so his comments in recent days suggest that for the first time this season, Hurricane Fly is in the same kind of form which saw him go through last season unbeaten. That would mean that he is highly likely to win his second Irish Champion Hurdle later this month and given that he could be facing some of his closest rivals in the Champion Hurdle betting, I would very much advise snapping up the current 9/4 as soon as possible. There is no doubt in my mind whatsoever that Hurricane Fly is the best hurdler since Istabraq and that makes him one of the best hurdlers of our generation, even though he has only won the one Cheltenham crown so far. But that will change should he get there in two months time and while he may be short at 9/4, I'm pretty confident that he won't be much bigger than even money on March 13th. In fact, even money may be the best price available on the morning of the Champion Hurdle. The opposition to Hurricane Fly is minimal and in looking for any other kind of bet in this year's Champion Hurdle, I'd be nearly tempted to wait until bookmakers start to bet without Hurricane Fly. But as none appear to have a betting without market at present, it's hard to highlight anything else. Spirit Son is apparantly the second coming at Nicky Henderson's yard but we have yet to see him this season and he couldn't win what appeared to be an average Supreme Novices' Hurdle last year. Similar thoughts apply to last year's Triumph Hurdle hero Zarkander, who has all the stats piled against him, and he has the beating of Grandouet and yet all three horses are single figure prices. Binocular's best days are behind him despite what all the reports and rumours may suggest and Rock On Ruby isn't fast enough for 2m and looks better suited by a step up in distance. A case can be made for Unaccompanied after her Christmas victory but surely Thousand Stars would beat her if the race was run again and while Thousand Stars would definately have good each-way claims at 20/1, connections must run him in the World Hurdle given what he showed in the Aintree Hurdle and the French Champion Hurdle last season. That leaves Oscars Well, who showed the first signs of the horse from last season when returning to form in the Istabraq Hurdle and expect more improvement in the Irish Champion Hurdle. Given his preferred better ground at Cheltenham, along with his impressive cruising speed, he's nearly assured of a first three place in the Champion Hurdle and that makes Ladbrokes' 25/1 (non runner-no bet) the only other bet worth considering outside Hurricane Fly. And by the way, if the betting is anything to go by, we could have the smallest Champion Hurdle field for quite some time. It's been 32 years since there were a single number of runners in the race (nine runners went to post ahead of Sea Pigeon's first Champion Hurdle success in 1980) and I reckon there could be a similar scenario this year. Recommendations (10pts in total) 8pts win Hurricane Fly @ 9/4 (Paddy Power) 1pt ew Oscars Well @ 25/1 (Ladbrokes) |
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I only read Starbets for Kevin Egan and the odd bit of other info. I take a look at Gary every now and then as well.
You seem to be a regular reader COM. I must have a look at some of the other contributors. Are there any in particular that know their stuff? |
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Gary OB is very good, he seems to have nearly as much effect with the bookies when he tips up one as Pricewise does. The greyhound column is good as well.
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.....the tips on irish greyhounds on here are better than any paper..i have followed them on the greyhound forum for a while and done really well..they are top class.....
.....monte christo i think pricewise is copying you..lol..... |
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Champion Chase
Looking at the entries for this race it’s interesting to note only 19 entered. Al Ferof Big Zeb Blazing Tempo Dan Breen Finian's Rainbow Forpadydeplasterer Gauvain Ghizao Hold Fast I'msingingtheblues I'm So Lucky Kauto Stone Nacarat Oiseau De Nuit Peddlers Cross Realt Dubh Sizing Europe Somersby Wishfull Thinking Of these I still believe Al Ferof and Peddlers Cross will run in the Arkle. Gauvain , Kauto Stone , Realt Dubh & Somersby will probably run in the Ryanair ISTB , ODN and Dan Breen might go for the grand annual & Nacarat and Ghizao will surely run elsewhere. Could be the smallest line-up in years due to the superiority of the top two in the market. Going through the top three in the betting at this stage gives us : Sizing Europe – 9-4 (2-1 lads) the current champion who is going for his third festival victory in succession after winning the arkle in 2010.At his favourite track he will obviously be the one to beat especially after his impressive Tingle creek victory.From an ante-post perspective however I’ll be looking elsewhere. I actually think he might get bigger after Big Zeb beats him in the Tied Cottage lol. Big Zeb – 5-1 (7-2 lads ) 2010 champion who found only Sizing Europe too good last year.Lovely horse who has perhaps never got the recognition he truly deserves but 11 now and will surely have it all to do to reverse form with the champ on his favoured track. Finian’s Rainbow – 6-1 (5-1 lads ) Smashing horse winner of 5/6 of his chase starts.Second in the 2011 Arkle but in my opinion is too short a price in comparison to the big two so I am prepared to let him go at this stage Selection Forpadydeplasterer 1/2 pt e-w @ 50-1 (WH) ( 25-1 lads) Admittedly he has not registered a win since his 2009 Arkle success but he has been runner up in 8 races and found only Big Zeb too good in this race in 2010. Taking a chance here but that is reflected in his price.The horse runs better in the spring imo and has great course form.If he gets there in one piece he’ll be capable of filling a place at least. |
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That could be a very interesting selection Monte Christo
I backed the horse LTO at Leopardstown and he actually ran very well before making a very bad mistake at the last which killed any chance he had. 50/1 is very big actually |
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Cheers db.
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Was xpectin to see Wishfull Thinkin
 Pricewise 100% imoPady a fair shout at the price imo |