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Minnie Hauk, what a pleasure to see here running a boring bank holiday monday.She has everything speed stamina and we can get 1.38, what a great price. And before Mr Hunt says show your bet, that's my business what I place. All I will say is I had a bad weekend and looking to get some back.
If this race was to be run in Japan or Australia she would be 1.05, so if you like these sort of once a month bets she is one of the best bets ever.
And then we move onto Chester week, don't let the bookies fool you by saying they hate Chester etc. They hate it for a reason because this meeting Chester Cup apart is a goldmine for punters.Chrck out the last few years results.
If this race was to be run in Japan or Australia she would be 1.05, so if you like these sort of once a month bets she is one of the best bets ever.
And then we move onto Chester week, don't let the bookies fool you by saying they hate Chester etc. They hate it for a reason because this meeting Chester Cup apart is a goldmine for punters.Chrck out the last few years results.
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One of theirs first time out and over a trip short of its best?
Good luck but it will not be slowed down with any of mine |
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Top jockey back on board this afternoon is a huge plus.
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And before Mr Hunt says show your bet, that's my business what I place.
why discuss it then? |
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He's telling all that he thinks it's a great bet and has backed it.
Nowt wrong with that, it's a racing forum. |
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ive got a 9 inch cóck..
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on ratings it cant get beat..if the shorter trip suits and dusnt turn into a sprint and its fit.
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He's given his opinion, he'll be proved right or wrong.
You said one was the best value ever at 1.07 the other day. 2 minutes later it was 1.14. It won, but you were wrong on the value part. |
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* I forgot to add my usual gripe about the OP.
Time and meeting, I've no idea where it runs.  |
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saddo 04 May 26 15:10
He's given his opinion, he'll be proved right or wrong. You said one was the best value ever at 1.07 the other day. 2 minutes later it was 1.14. It won, but you were wrong on the value part. 15 mins later was 1.14 ydc..99% drift in an inq |
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4.10 Curragh Minnie Hawk,saddo
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Sorry yes. 4.10 curragh.
And with Mr Hunt he is someone I have known on here for many many years probably 20 plus years. It's Paul by the way. I'm a big punter but a big losers over recent seasons. But I do lump it on. I do respect Mr Hunt but he seems to be bitter in his posts the last few years. I don't understand why as he made millions in the early days. Hence I respect him. |
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He's ill tempered and very rude. Apart from that he's ok.
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And bet wise. I have to be into Asian markets as limited on here.
I had £2300 @ 1.42 and seen the drift I have had another £1200 @ 1.5. The trip to me is no worry because if no pace Ryan will goto the front and use her stride. I must say 1.5 is extreme value. If I didn't have money tied up in the snooker I would have more on. But I'm happy enough with my position. |
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im only bitter to clowns and fantasists..i respect anyone who is telling the truth.
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1.86 now!
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1.86. Blimey...
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1.3 > evens and wins on the snaff...funny ole game.
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She is a great horse. I got the price badly wrong but a winners a winner.
All enjoy the rest of your bank holiday. I'm going for a few pints of Guinness. |
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Class act - she probably was only 70% fit but was still too classy - layers took a hammering there
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Rico-Dangleflaps 04 May 26 16:14
1.3 > evens and wins on the snaff...funny ole game. WD op. |
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WD Ageing. u got the price wrong but your collecting thats all that matters.
Seriouse drift though. hard to forsee such a big drift and see it cruise in. i conqer with Rico funny old game indeed  |
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Have the Mullins/O'brien monopolies in Ireland caused a dip in the general public's interest in the sport?
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saddo
saddo04 May 26 15:10Joined: 04 Dec 05 | Topic/replies: 54,672 | Blogger: saddo's blog He's given his opinion, he'll be proved right or wrong. You said one was the best value ever at 1.07 the other day. 2 minutes later it was 1.14. It won, but you were wrong on the value part Why do so many people not understand what value means in horse racing. Value does not mean backing bigger than what the SP is. Hope this helps. |
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I don't know about the interest but I am certain that neither can be trusted,Johann
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What does 'the best value ever' mean in horse racing?
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I got 9/4 on one today that started at 13/8. I think I
got value, brandy will probably disagree. |
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means imo it was the best 1.07 ive seen last 5yrs.
all subjective. |
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yes, hard to see what brandy is implying. nobody knows the true probability, not even after the event. the best benchmark we have is the sp. over tens of thousands of events, the sp has proven to be pretty close to the true probability. a measure of value, price taken compared to sp is about as good as it gets. obviously, the sp is sometimes hugely distorted in betting, but there aren't any better measures, and in horse racing it's not far off.
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If you make a tissue and you make horse A 5/1, and the books price horse A at 10/1. Then backing horse A at 10/1 is value.
Regardless if horse A goes off at 16/1 or 2/1, you have value. If you price a horse up at 5/4, the books price him up at at 5/4, and you carelessly back him at 5/4. If that horse wins at 1/2, you have not got value. In the long run you can only win at backing at bigger odds on your tissue than what is offered. Its very simple mathematics. |
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lol, no.
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brandyontherocks 04 May 26 16:49
If you make a tissue and you make horse A 5/1, and the books price horse A at 10/1. Then backing horse A at 10/1 is value. how do ewe nah the 5/1 is its price? |
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If I offered your evens a coin flip, there would be no point having a bet.
But if I offered you 5/4 on tails? |
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thats an obvious anomaly tho..5/1 your opinion on a horse isnt.
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Rico-Dangleflaps04 May 26 16:54Joined: 07 Sep 18 | Topic/replies: 51,790 | Blogger: Rico-Dangleflaps's blog
brandyontherocks 04 May 26 16:49 If you make a tissue and you make horse A 5/1, and the books price horse A at 10/1. Then backing horse A at 10/1 is value. how do ewe nah the 5/1 is its price? How do books make a tissue? Whether you use your own ratings, form study or pins. You have to have an opinion, surely? |
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Yes, it's a pretty straight forward concept. Value is getting better odds than the true probability. Your tissue in a horse race has nothing to do with the true probability.
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Cough cough
Day of the race prices and Anti Post are completely different and not been mentioned here |
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MH drifted, at least in part, because she boiled over in the preliminaries. Nobody's tissue can account for that, but the market does.
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Not sure how that has any relevance, Cider.
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So tell us Brandy how you find value AP
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