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Minnie Hauk, what a pleasure to see here running a boring bank holiday monday.She has everything speed stamina and we can get 1.38, what a great price. And before Mr Hunt says show your bet, that's my business what I place. All I will say is I had a bad weekend and looking to get some back.
If this race was to be run in Japan or Australia she would be 1.05, so if you like these sort of once a month bets she is one of the best bets ever.
And then we move onto Chester week, don't let the bookies fool you by saying they hate Chester etc. They hate it for a reason because this meeting Chester Cup apart is a goldmine for punters.Chrck out the last few years results.
If this race was to be run in Japan or Australia she would be 1.05, so if you like these sort of once a month bets she is one of the best bets ever.
And then we move onto Chester week, don't let the bookies fool you by saying they hate Chester etc. They hate it for a reason because this meeting Chester Cup apart is a goldmine for punters.Chrck out the last few years results.
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One of theirs first time out and over a trip short of its best?
Good luck but it will not be slowed down with any of mine
Good luck but it will not be slowed down with any of mine
Top jockey back on board this afternoon is a huge plus.
And before Mr Hunt says show your bet, that's my business what I place.
why discuss it then?
why discuss it then?
He's telling all that he thinks it's a great bet and has backed it.
Nowt wrong with that, it's a racing forum.
Nowt wrong with that, it's a racing forum.
on ratings it cant get beat..if the shorter trip suits and dusnt turn into a sprint and its fit.
He's given his opinion, he'll be proved right or wrong.
You said one was the best value ever at 1.07 the other day.
2 minutes later it was 1.14. It won, but you were wrong on the value part.
You said one was the best value ever at 1.07 the other day.
2 minutes later it was 1.14. It won, but you were wrong on the value part.
* I forgot to add my usual gripe about the OP.
Time and meeting, I've no idea where it runs.
Time and meeting, I've no idea where it runs.
saddo 04 May 26 15:10
He's given his opinion, he'll be proved right or wrong.
You said one was the best value ever at 1.07 the other day.
2 minutes later it was 1.14. It won, but you were wrong on the value part.
15 mins later was 1.14 ydc..99% drift in an inq
He's given his opinion, he'll be proved right or wrong.
You said one was the best value ever at 1.07 the other day.
2 minutes later it was 1.14. It won, but you were wrong on the value part.
15 mins later was 1.14 ydc..99% drift in an inq
Sorry yes. 4.10 curragh.
And with Mr Hunt he is someone I have known on here for many many years probably 20 plus years. It's Paul by the way.
I'm a big punter but a big losers over recent seasons. But I do lump it on.
I do respect Mr Hunt but he seems to be bitter in his posts the last few years. I don't understand why as he made millions in the early days. Hence I respect him.
And with Mr Hunt he is someone I have known on here for many many years probably 20 plus years. It's Paul by the way.
I'm a big punter but a big losers over recent seasons. But I do lump it on.
I do respect Mr Hunt but he seems to be bitter in his posts the last few years. I don't understand why as he made millions in the early days. Hence I respect him.
And bet wise. I have to be into Asian markets as limited on here.
I had £2300 @ 1.42 and seen the drift I have had another £1200 @ 1.5.
The trip to me is no worry because if no pace Ryan will goto the front and use her stride.
I must say 1.5 is extreme value. If I didn't have money tied up in the snooker I would have more on. But I'm happy enough with my position.
I had £2300 @ 1.42 and seen the drift I have had another £1200 @ 1.5.
The trip to me is no worry because if no pace Ryan will goto the front and use her stride.
I must say 1.5 is extreme value. If I didn't have money tied up in the snooker I would have more on. But I'm happy enough with my position.
im only bitter to clowns and fantasists..i respect anyone who is telling the truth.
1.3 > evens and wins on the snaff...funny ole game.
She is a great horse. I got the price badly wrong but a winners a winner.
All enjoy the rest of your bank holiday. I'm going for a few pints of Guinness.
All enjoy the rest of your bank holiday. I'm going for a few pints of Guinness.
Class act - she probably was only 70% fit but was still too classy - layers took a hammering there
Rico-Dangleflaps 04 May 26 16:14
1.3 > evens and wins on the snaff...funny ole game. WD op.
1.3 > evens and wins on the snaff...funny ole game. WD op.
WD Ageing. u got the price wrong but your collecting thats all that matters.
Seriouse drift though. hard to forsee such a big drift and see it cruise in.
i conqer with Rico funny old game indeed
Seriouse drift though. hard to forsee such a big drift and see it cruise in.
i conqer with Rico funny old game indeed
Have the Mullins/O'brien monopolies in Ireland caused a dip in the general public's interest in the sport?
saddo
saddo04 May 26 15:10Joined: 04 Dec 05 | Topic/replies: 54,672 | Blogger: saddo's blog
He's given his opinion, he'll be proved right or wrong.
You said one was the best value ever at 1.07 the other day.
2 minutes later it was 1.14. It won, but you were wrong on the value part
Why do so many people not understand what value means in horse racing.
Value does not mean backing bigger than what the SP is.
Hope this helps.
saddo04 May 26 15:10Joined: 04 Dec 05 | Topic/replies: 54,672 | Blogger: saddo's blog
He's given his opinion, he'll be proved right or wrong.
You said one was the best value ever at 1.07 the other day.
2 minutes later it was 1.14. It won, but you were wrong on the value part
Why do so many people not understand what value means in horse racing.
Value does not mean backing bigger than what the SP is.
Hope this helps.
I don't know about the interest but I am certain that neither can be trusted,Johann
I got 9/4 on one today that started at 13/8. I think I
got value, brandy will probably disagree.
got value, brandy will probably disagree.
means imo it was the best 1.07 ive seen last 5yrs.
all subjective.
all subjective.
yes, hard to see what brandy is implying. nobody knows the true probability, not even after the event. the best benchmark we have is the sp. over tens of thousands of events, the sp has proven to be pretty close to the true probability. a measure of value, price taken compared to sp is about as good as it gets. obviously, the sp is sometimes hugely distorted in betting, but there aren't any better measures, and in horse racing it's not far off.
If you make a tissue and you make horse A 5/1, and the books price horse A at 10/1. Then backing horse A at 10/1 is value.
Regardless if horse A goes off at 16/1 or 2/1, you have value.
If you price a horse up at 5/4, the books price him up at at 5/4, and you carelessly back him at 5/4. If that horse wins at 1/2, you have not got value.
In the long run you can only win at backing at bigger odds on your tissue than what is offered.
Its very simple mathematics.
Regardless if horse A goes off at 16/1 or 2/1, you have value.
If you price a horse up at 5/4, the books price him up at at 5/4, and you carelessly back him at 5/4. If that horse wins at 1/2, you have not got value.
In the long run you can only win at backing at bigger odds on your tissue than what is offered.
Its very simple mathematics.
brandyontherocks 04 May 26 16:49
If you make a tissue and you make horse A 5/1, and the books price horse A at 10/1. Then backing horse A at 10/1 is value.
how do ewe nah the 5/1 is its price?
If you make a tissue and you make horse A 5/1, and the books price horse A at 10/1. Then backing horse A at 10/1 is value.
how do ewe nah the 5/1 is its price?
If I offered your evens a coin flip, there would be no point having a bet.
But if I offered you 5/4 on tails?
But if I offered you 5/4 on tails?
thats an obvious anomaly tho..5/1 your opinion on a horse isnt.
Rico-Dangleflaps04 May 26 16:54Joined: 07 Sep 18 | Topic/replies: 51,790 | Blogger: Rico-Dangleflaps's blog
brandyontherocks 04 May 26 16:49
If you make a tissue and you make horse A 5/1, and the books price horse A at 10/1. Then backing horse A at 10/1 is value.
how do ewe nah the 5/1 is its price?
How do books make a tissue?
Whether you use your own ratings, form study or pins. You have to have an opinion, surely?
brandyontherocks 04 May 26 16:49
If you make a tissue and you make horse A 5/1, and the books price horse A at 10/1. Then backing horse A at 10/1 is value.
how do ewe nah the 5/1 is its price?
How do books make a tissue?
Whether you use your own ratings, form study or pins. You have to have an opinion, surely?
Yes, it's a pretty straight forward concept. Value is getting better odds than the true probability. Your tissue in a horse race has nothing to do with the true probability.
Cough cough
Day of the race prices and Anti Post are completely different and not been mentioned here
Day of the race prices and Anti Post are completely different and not been mentioned here
MH drifted, at least in part, because she boiled over in the preliminaries. Nobody's tissue can account for that, but the market does.
Because you’re discussing dy of the market races with people who don’t ply that way
I am pretty sure plenty of people play on the day, Dela.
A Fabre filly that heads to NewMarket will never go off 33’s I get that.
You’ve misunderstood me, I’ve said your discussing value with only in the day backers
You’ve misunderstood me, I’ve said your discussing value with only in the day backers
I've already explained it in pretty simple terms. Value is price probability vs true probability. In MH's example, the true probability was impacted by her boiling over before the race. Since nobody knew that was going to happen before it did, it couldn't be incorporated into a tissue.
We are human and humans suffer from recency bias. Most of them anyway! MH's SP probably wasn't far off the true probability, but she was able to overcome the problematic preliminaries, and the market still said she was more likely to win than not.
We are human and humans suffer from recency bias. Most of them anyway! MH's SP probably wasn't far off the true probability, but she was able to overcome the problematic preliminaries, and the market still said she was more likely to win than not.
Value is price probability vs true probability
So we agree
So we agree
Cider 04 May 26 16:58
Yes, it's a pretty straight forward concept. Value is getting better odds than the true probability. Your tissue in a horse race has nothing to do with the true probability.
wel sed woddy woodpecker.
Yes, it's a pretty straight forward concept. Value is getting better odds than the true probability. Your tissue in a horse race has nothing to do with the true probability.
wel sed woddy woodpecker.
Probability doesn’t factor in bad luck in running, bad jockey ship, missing the break, horse pulling
You don't seem to understand that in horse racing, true probability is best reflected by the bfsp. Obviously it is imperfect, but it is the best measure available. People don't get restricted for consistently taking under the sp (unlike beating it, even when they lose).
I understand that there isn’t much reliability in probability, or we’d all be winning all the time.
Why weren’t all you day of the race backers playing the AOB double today?
Did the cheek pieces put you off of Group 1 winner Hawk MOUNTAIN in Chantilly? Or was it the recent loses of his other runners?
Did the cheek pieces put you off of Group 1 winner Hawk MOUNTAIN in Chantilly? Or was it the recent loses of his other runners?
Anyone who can consistently beat bfsp and get on would be winning all the time, with no pc or commission.
'winning all the time' is challenging, as the primary issue is getting someone to still take you on. finding value is the easier bit.
'winning all the time' is challenging, as the primary issue is getting someone to still take you on. finding value is the easier bit.
Maybe you felt it more reliable to play against older horses with form in Ireland than try and evaluate the French Form?
But there was a perfect yardstick in there with Campacite who AOB knows well through PRico.
But there was a perfect yardstick in there with Campacite who AOB knows well through PRico.
value is only an opinion..period..
only price set in stone is a coin toss or a roulette number without the green 0.
only price set in stone is a coin toss or a roulette number without the green 0.
Today
1m 1F 3/5 btn 1½L Hawk Mountain 9-2
Last year
1m btn 1¾L Puerto Rico 9-0
7f btn 4¾L Puerto Rico 9-0
No surprise he led all the way and stretched them there today.
I agree value is only opinion
1m 1F 3/5 btn 1½L Hawk Mountain 9-2
Last year
1m btn 1¾L Puerto Rico 9-0
7f btn 4¾L Puerto Rico 9-0
No surprise he led all the way and stretched them there today.
I agree value is only opinion
I don't think the bfsp is far off over 1000s of events. Football would be a better example, as for premier league games, the odds will be very very close to the true probability. Horse racing has more variables/insider info/cheating.
Post your bet then,Delbert.
Sorry,I almost forgot that you spout endless pony but don't actually bet
Sorry,I almost forgot that you spout endless pony but don't actually bet
Apologies for going slightly 'off topic' as Rico did yesterday...
however, I am now able to shed some light on the authenticity of his statement...
however, I am now able to shed some light on the authenticity of his statement...
easily done I guess when you’re fumbling around with not much to handle!
no nappies wen i was a baby goat...was old towels wrapped round twice.
The amount of space periodically devoted on this fourm to 'value' never ceases to amaze me.
Not because value isn't relevant but because value is in the eye of the beholder.
One punter's 1/2 might be great value, yet to another that might be way too short.
(Value can exist at all prices, BTW, long or short).
I have yet to see ANYONE produce a pre-race tissue that is medium-to long-term accurate. When someone cracks that they can start to pick off 'value'.
Until then, we all have our own ideas of value prices. And, let us not forget, that once a result of a race is known, then all other arguments about all aspects of the race (form, pricing etc, etc) are null and void. The result overrides everything.
Personally, after 50 years and more gambling, I would venture to suggest that the wisdom of crowds (on here the exchange prices) are mostly more accurate than anyone else's judgment.
From time to time we all make a good call, but, in the long run, is value as easily spotted as some on here think it is? I doubt it.
Not because value isn't relevant but because value is in the eye of the beholder.
One punter's 1/2 might be great value, yet to another that might be way too short.
(Value can exist at all prices, BTW, long or short).
I have yet to see ANYONE produce a pre-race tissue that is medium-to long-term accurate. When someone cracks that they can start to pick off 'value'.
Until then, we all have our own ideas of value prices. And, let us not forget, that once a result of a race is known, then all other arguments about all aspects of the race (form, pricing etc, etc) are null and void. The result overrides everything.
Personally, after 50 years and more gambling, I would venture to suggest that the wisdom of crowds (on here the exchange prices) are mostly more accurate than anyone else's judgment.
From time to time we all make a good call, but, in the long run, is value as easily spotted as some on here think it is? I doubt it.
Value is in the eye of the holder before the event, but not after. But as I outlined previously, in horse racing you'd have to have a very high number of events to demonstrate it long term. In statistics there is something called the settling down phenomenon. You could roll a fair dice 6 times, probability suggests that you might expect to land on each different score once. However obviously the true probability is that that is a long shot, far more likely at least one score won't be hit in the 6 rolls. But of you roll it 6000 times, the outcome will be extremely close to evenly distributed across the scores, 1/6 for each side.
As I also touched on, in gambling, identifying value is only half the story as you also have to be able to find a willing participant for the opposite side of the ledger. That is inversely correlated, the better you ae at identifying value, the harder it becomes to make material use of it.
You are right TK that lots of space is devoted to the topic, but it's not complicated at all (in my view). People who win long term at betting don't have to be betting with value inherently in mind, but if they are winning after a long series of events, and able to sustain it, they are beating expectation ergo identifying value.
As I also touched on, in gambling, identifying value is only half the story as you also have to be able to find a willing participant for the opposite side of the ledger. That is inversely correlated, the better you ae at identifying value, the harder it becomes to make material use of it.
You are right TK that lots of space is devoted to the topic, but it's not complicated at all (in my view). People who win long term at betting don't have to be betting with value inherently in mind, but if they are winning after a long series of events, and able to sustain it, they are beating expectation ergo identifying value.
Very true The Knight. I have also been betting on horses for more than 50 years and although I still make the same old silly mistakes, I have learned a few things. Firstly, don't bet ante post unless you have inside knowledge. Even then a lot can go wrong so you need at least double what you think would be a fair price on the day. Secondly follow success. Breeders, Owners and trainers in that order. At the moment for me it is Juddmonte, Juddmonte and Andrew Balding. Jonquil ticked all of the boxes. Aga Khan, Aga Khan and Graffard is the very best if you want to bet in France but the markets on french racing on Betfair are very thin.
Value is derived from something (eg knowledge) that other people don't have, ie cannot be factored into expectation. Colloquially known as an edge. In my opinion, it's very difficult to obtain value with high profile trainers/owners as by definition, that is factored into market expectation. I've be very surprised if backing Balding trained Juddmonte runners provided a long term edge, but I'd be more that happy to view the data on it.
Most edges can't be measured, ie instinct or inside information. Time advantage eg courtsiding is a bit different.
Most edges can't be measured, ie instinct or inside information. Time advantage eg courtsiding is a bit different.
Oh dear! Minnie Hauk got stuffed today. She was unplaced. The British trio Almaqam, Bay City Roller and Saddadd finished ahead of her.
Well done Almaqam, Shoemark and Walker. A venture very well rewarded.
Well done Almaqam, Shoemark and Walker. A venture very well rewarded.
Rico-Dangleflaps04 May 26 16:07Joined: 07 Sep 18 | Topic/replies: 52,351 | Blogger: Rico-Dangleflaps's blog
im only bitter to clowns and fantasists..i respect anyone who is telling the truth.
You dont respect no facker pal...Mean spirited ****
im only bitter to clowns and fantasists..i respect anyone who is telling the truth.
You dont respect no facker pal...Mean spirited ****
Rico-Dangleflaps04 May 26 16:07Joined: 07 Sep 18 | Topic/replies: 52,351 | Blogger: Rico-Dangleflaps's blog
im only bitter to clowns and fantasists..i respect anyone who is telling the truth.
You dont respect no facker pal...Mean spirited ****
im only bitter to clowns and fantasists..i respect anyone who is telling the truth.
You dont respect no facker pal...Mean spirited ****
Rico-Dangleflaps04 May 26 16:07
im only bitter to clowns and fantasists..
acey dopey falls into both kattagorys.
im only bitter to clowns and fantasists..
acey dopey falls into both kattagorys.
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