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Highest Rated Filly in the World Lump job
Highest Rated Filly in the World Lump job
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Replies: 73
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Because you’re discussing dy of the market races with people who don’t ply that way
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I am pretty sure plenty of people play on the day, Dela.
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A Fabre filly that heads to NewMarket will never go off 33’s I get that.
You’ve misunderstood me, I’ve said your discussing value with only in the day backers |
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*you’re on the day
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I've already explained it in pretty simple terms. Value is price probability vs true probability. In MH's example, the true probability was impacted by her boiling over before the race. Since nobody knew that was going to happen before it did, it couldn't be incorporated into a tissue.
We are human and humans suffer from recency bias. Most of them anyway! MH's SP probably wasn't far off the true probability, but she was able to overcome the problematic preliminaries, and the market still said she was more likely to win than not. |
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Value is price probability vs true probability
So we agree  |
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Cider 04 May 26 16:58
Yes, it's a pretty straight forward concept. Value is getting better odds than the true probability. Your tissue in a horse race has nothing to do with the true probability. wel sed woddy woodpecker. |
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Probability doesn’t factor in bad luck in running, bad jockey ship, missing the break, horse pulling
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Or vice versa LUCK in running.
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You don't seem to understand that in horse racing, true probability is best reflected by the bfsp. Obviously it is imperfect, but it is the best measure available. People don't get restricted for consistently taking under the sp (unlike beating it, even when they lose).
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I understand that there isn’t much reliability in probability, or we’d all be winning all the time.
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Why weren’t all you day of the race backers playing the AOB double today?
Did the cheek pieces put you off of Group 1 winner Hawk MOUNTAIN in Chantilly? Or was it the recent loses of his other runners? |
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Anyone who can consistently beat bfsp and get on would be winning all the time, with no pc or commission.
'winning all the time' is challenging, as the primary issue is getting someone to still take you on. finding value is the easier bit. |
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Maybe you felt it more reliable to play against older horses with form in Ireland than try and evaluate the French Form?
But there was a perfect yardstick in there with Campacite who AOB knows well through PRico. |
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value is only an opinion..period..
only price set in stone is a coin toss or a roulette number without the green 0. |
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Today
1m 1F 3/5 btn 1½L Hawk Mountain 9-2 Last year 1m btn 1¾L Puerto Rico 9-0 7f btn 4¾L Puerto Rico 9-0 No surprise he led all the way and stretched them there today. I agree value is only opinion |
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I don't think the bfsp is far off over 1000s of events. Football would be a better example, as for premier league games, the odds will be very very close to the true probability. Horse racing has more variables/insider info/cheating.
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Post your bet then,Delbert.
Sorry,I almost forgot that you spout endless pony but don't actually bet  |
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Apologies for going slightly 'off topic' as Rico did yesterday...
[ This image is no longer available. ] however, I am now able to shed some light on the authenticity of his statement... [ This image is no longer available. ] |
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its filled plenty prams..
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So you didn't wear nappies as a kid, Rico?
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easily done I guess when you’re fumbling around with not much to handle! |
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no nappies wen i was a baby goat...was old towels wrapped round twice.
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goat - gormo of all time
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The amount of space periodically devoted on this fourm to 'value' never ceases to amaze me.
Not because value isn't relevant but because value is in the eye of the beholder. One punter's 1/2 might be great value, yet to another that might be way too short. (Value can exist at all prices, BTW, long or short). I have yet to see ANYONE produce a pre-race tissue that is medium-to long-term accurate. When someone cracks that they can start to pick off 'value'. Until then, we all have our own ideas of value prices. And, let us not forget, that once a result of a race is known, then all other arguments about all aspects of the race (form, pricing etc, etc) are null and void. The result overrides everything. Personally, after 50 years and more gambling, I would venture to suggest that the wisdom of crowds (on here the exchange prices) are mostly more accurate than anyone else's judgment. From time to time we all make a good call, but, in the long run, is value as easily spotted as some on here think it is? I doubt it. |
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Value is in the eye of the holder before the event, but not after. But as I outlined previously, in horse racing you'd have to have a very high number of events to demonstrate it long term. In statistics there is something called the settling down phenomenon. You could roll a fair dice 6 times, probability suggests that you might expect to land on each different score once. However obviously the true probability is that that is a long shot, far more likely at least one score won't be hit in the 6 rolls. But of you roll it 6000 times, the outcome will be extremely close to evenly distributed across the scores, 1/6 for each side.
As I also touched on, in gambling, identifying value is only half the story as you also have to be able to find a willing participant for the opposite side of the ledger. That is inversely correlated, the better you ae at identifying value, the harder it becomes to make material use of it. You are right TK that lots of space is devoted to the topic, but it's not complicated at all (in my view). People who win long term at betting don't have to be betting with value inherently in mind, but if they are winning after a long series of events, and able to sustain it, they are beating expectation ergo identifying value. |
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Very true The Knight. I have also been betting on horses for more than 50 years and although I still make the same old silly mistakes, I have learned a few things. Firstly, don't bet ante post unless you have inside knowledge. Even then a lot can go wrong so you need at least double what you think would be a fair price on the day. Secondly follow success. Breeders, Owners and trainers in that order. At the moment for me it is Juddmonte, Juddmonte and Andrew Balding. Jonquil ticked all of the boxes. Aga Khan, Aga Khan and Graffard is the very best if you want to bet in France but the markets on french racing on Betfair are very thin.
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Value is derived from something (eg knowledge) that other people don't have, ie cannot be factored into expectation. Colloquially known as an edge. In my opinion, it's very difficult to obtain value with high profile trainers/owners as by definition, that is factored into market expectation. I've be very surprised if backing Balding trained Juddmonte runners provided a long term edge, but I'd be more that happy to view the data on it.
Most edges can't be measured, ie instinct or inside information. Time advantage eg courtsiding is a bit different. |
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Oh dear! Minnie Hauk got stuffed today. She was unplaced. The British trio Almaqam, Bay City Roller and Saddadd finished ahead of her.
Well done Almaqam, Shoemark and Walker. A venture very well rewarded. |
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Dawson watching Moore
idiot.. |
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Rico-Dangleflaps04 May 26 16:07Joined: 07 Sep 18 | Topic/replies: 52,351 | Blogger: Rico-Dangleflaps's blog
im only bitter to clowns and fantasists..i respect anyone who is telling the truth. You dont respect no facker pal...Mean spirited ****  |
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Rico-Dangleflaps04 May 26 16:07Joined: 07 Sep 18 | Topic/replies: 52,351 | Blogger: Rico-Dangleflaps's blog
im only bitter to clowns and fantasists..i respect anyone who is telling the truth. You dont respect no facker pal...Mean spirited **** |
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Rico-Dangleflaps04 May 26 16:07
im only bitter to clowns and fantasists.. acey dopey falls into both kattagorys. |
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Although Sea The Fire and Kalpana delivered, backing older fillies and mares at short prices has always held an element of danger. Bad luck Ageing. Older females can suddenly decide "not today thanks"
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