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Lossiemouth
Lossiemouth
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I think she'd missed her boat. It sailed last season. And, the tide is much higher this season too.
Why are the bookies not betting on which race she's going? In football one can bet on a team winning or losing (not even a draw). |
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Mares.
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Runs in the mares hurdle.
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Golden Ace - Champion.
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Townsend tail wagging the Mullins dog.
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Two shocking decisions. I just hope we don't get it's great to see Golden Ace having a go. The owner is a crackpot who has probably had a couple of quid at 100/1. As regards Lossiemouth given what Ricci has said Mullins has been lying ever since the Kempton defeat. You can't hide behind the fall.
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Well done to those guessing earlier in the week
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Kargesse?
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N/R.
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Tfft
Cheers penzance |
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Chicken! I'd have saved her for Punchestown, and do battle with BDA and State Man possibly Constitution Hill - if there's a hiccup next week. The Mares Hurdle is a non-entity race; to run two consecutive years a non-entity race is beggars belief!
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All talking on Luck On Sunday as if punters don't matter. Typical of the breed. Punters now have to see through idiot owners and the leading trainer lying through his teeth. That isn't a good look for racing, and should be called as such. Luck saying the Mares' Hurdle is a 'cracking race'. No it's not, it's Lossiemouth trying to do what she has already done against a bunch of at best Grade 2 horses.
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Golden Ace probably beats Lossie for the number of flipflops. The trainer was on the Morning Line yesterday giving it the Brian Clough saying that he'd have a discussion with the owner about which race to go for and then they'd agree that he was right and she'd be declared for the Mares (for which she was a single figure price yesterday).
Perhaps they should bring back Runaround with Mike Reid for decs morning. |
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No doubt about that. There was an assumption (off the back of the trainer comments) that Lossiemouth was always going Champion Hurdle, even after the 'disappointments' that Ricci talks about. That was until the last week. It is impossible to believe that a leading owner and trainer don't speak to each other.
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Jeremy Scott coming up on Nick Luck On Sunday shortly.
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The only punters upset will surely be those who got it wrong and backed her for the CH. Equally, another there's another batch of punters who will be in clover who backed her AP for the MH.
Some racing fans will be disappointed as they wanted to see her taking on Constitution to further bolster the race. But it's easier to be brave when there's nothing to personally lose. Nothing she's done suggests she has anywhere near the gears to beat a 100% Constitution Hill, barring accidents. And that doesn't factor in coming in to Cheltenham off the back off a terrible fall. |
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so why did/has the best trainer in the business been spending in his words the last 2yrs ,training/preparing her to do exactly that ?
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If connections think it's the right decision then it's the right decision , anything to the contrary will be from punters making the wrong ante post choice or pure hindsight , it's a team game when you've a stable that strong with multiple choices that other connections never need consider.
From a festival betting abstainer i still really hope she wins on Tuesday  |
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Need to see what the going is likely to be on the day, but if it's typical for festival day one, personally I don't feel any of them will see which way Constitution Hill went. Looking likely to get a dream set up, as long as he doesn't do something stupid at one of the obstacles.
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Well said Cider, couldnt agree more.
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despite all the will they/wont they
48 hrs before the off we,re still no wiser as punters to the answers of the main ?,s do they think stateman has better chance than lossie in CH,or jboth had/have no chance so run lossie in mares because no alternative for stateman, are they running away from BDA or const hill,or both |
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champion hurdle betting
4 to 7 9 to 4 10,s 40,s 50,s 100,s 100,s 150,s or as a trainer Scott just said on lucky a very competitive race,  , does he mean competitive for 4th,5th,6th prize money ? |
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so why did/has the best trainer in the business been spending in his words the last 2yrs ,training/preparing her to do exactly that ?
I feel like she still had to prove she had a real shot at winning the race, and blew them both this season. But as I covered at length, the Mullins firm will do what they think is best for them anyway. |
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I cant see what difference it makes if all horses declared the night before, anyone betting months before Antepost were given better odds for exactly the scenarios that are playing out now. Move on, the same will happen next year no doubt.
I backed a horse for the Supreme that is in the Maiden at Naas Today ! |
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Glasgow
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just noticed that one of last years swans that fergal O'Brien went to great lengths to hide her from been seen as a goose and gutted she didn't start in mares novice last yr,is 40,s for this yrs mares
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Not a great read this morning. All negative for me. Golden Ace in the CH although I do have a 40/1 nrnb which I might be able to lay off. Lost the mares bet though. Libberty Hunter now missing the Grand Annual is another one that bites the dust. Serves me right for backing ANY horse with more than one entry. Never again. It never entered my head that they would do anything that daft as he should be a 200/1 shot for the Champion Chase. At least I still have Majborough at a decent price and The Changing Man for Tuesday. Probably a fall and a second.
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I very very rarely bet AP these days, I think my first one for 5 years was East India Dock, a horse I discussed on here with dd at the time, actually. I was so taken with how well he jumped on his Cheltenham debut, and the prices offered after didn't seem to reflect that at all. Of course Hendo subsequently unveiled Lulamba, and the Cromwell gang are seemingly quite confident of a strong run from Hello Neighbour, so not counting it out just yet
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I think the scenario with her is different. It's not a blind bet. She'll either run in the Mares Hurdle, Champion Hurdle or not run at all. She's the credentials and ability. It's different to betting antepost on a hopeful juvenile that could be bound for the Triumph, Supreme, progessing to The Arkle, RSA or one of the 3 handicaps.
This decision has been taken because the Mares Hurdle is a much softer race. It's also the correct decision for the horse given the Leopardstown fall. |
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We heard from Scott and he said trainer/jock wanted to go Mares' and he admitted the decision didn't make much sense. I believe the owner should decide, but that doesn't mean it shouldn't be called as a nonsense decision. One of the 'suits' (it was like a solicitors convention on the couch) just said 'right decision'. Was he even listening to the trainer?
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The question about Lossiemouth has nothing to do with the final decision, but the way it has been handled by Mullins/Ricci. They have led people up the garden path for a year. If you can't condemn that then you may as well give up. If she wasn't good enough after Kempton we should have heard about it. Instead Mullins put a positive slant on the run.
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Leaving aside the present kerfuffle, this scenario is only going to get more frequent. The proliferation of Mares Only races at the Festival is designed to encourage mares to race in NH races. And it does. But the more successful the plan is, the more likely it is that there will be really good mares who will be very, very competitive in the (proper) championship races. One appreciates the position was slightly different, but how many Champion/Stayers Hurdles would Quevega have won? Would Annie P have won more than 1? We will never know. This year we have 2 mares that might win a CH but one goes elsewhere. In 5 years we may have 4 or 5 BDA's or Lossies. All with the temptation to slide off to the Mares/Stayers. The same, to a lesser extent, applies to the mares novice hurdle and mares chase (in respect of their effect on the novice races and Champion Chase). The aim is noble, but it can be achieved by staging the Mares "Finals" elsewhere. Aintree or Sandown. It is obvious that the plan is becoming too successful and diluting an event already diluted by 10/12f flat horse going abroad and the concentration of many good horses in a small number of yards. And so we will be back to 4 odds on shots on Tuesday. like the Wednesday last year and 3 impossible handicaps. Not too many people shelling out £120 + expenses for that will be tempted to return.
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Plain as day these double, treble entries are going to kill betting. Racing punters aren’t as thick as football punters they have a better idea of the mechanics of betting.
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Can easily argue that Honeysuckle was more of a duck than Lossiemouth. Three horses running in the race boast stronger form. Sure, she's a talking horse and is popular, but only the allowance made it viable at all. Then it can be considered that the owner and trainer have already won the race with multiple horses, to me it seems like the no brainer option.
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also the jockey deciding what goes where isn’t going to help backer confidence
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Stating the obvious but people were betting on what the connections would do, not should do. Doesn't matter if they use a coin flip to decide, connections aren't going to be swayed by what people outside of their bubble think should happen. Certainly not those that have 100+ festival winners!
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Great post Donegal
It may kill ante post betting eric which is neither here nor there tbh as it's a drop in the ocean compared to the real punting on the day. |
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Well said DD..all they had to say "we are keeping our options open"..not this bullsh*t about training for the CH for two years
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Lossiemouth was always going Champion. The thing that happened was Brighterdaysahead. They didn’t see that happening and thought had sporting chance against CH but very unlikely beating her as well. Ruby would have also swayed their decision as he’s very much in BDA is something special.
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