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Premium Charge is dead
Premium Charge is dead
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thanx for confirming that jamee...
i got the impression that was what howard was alluding to earlier on on this thread (altho again i might be wrong)... it's hard to know how much 'offsetting' it would actually achieve tbh jamee... and you've also got to take in to account any possible (intended or unintended) profits or losses to the equation... as a new year is coming i might try some of that myself and see what sort of results it churns out... will probably get hacked off with it after a week or so but i'll give it a go (i think). |
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Mr.HUnt...
i was told about that sort of thing years ago... it's an obvious tactic to produce commission / implied commission... i think i prefer lots of bets on stuff that will hopefully produce a small profit/loss but churns out commission / implied commission... very small bets and see how it pans out Mr.HUnt... like i say i'll probably get hacked off with it after a few days but will have a go at least. |
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lots of dog races...
football matches... tennis matches going on pretty much all year round... will probably result in a smallish loss but churns out commission / implied commission. |
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personally i'd be surprised if 0.5% fall in implied commission stops folk doing it jamee...
you'll know better than me and clearly not helpful altho i can't see it being a game changer for the commission churners personally. |
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The main reason for commission churning was to get you into a lower band (from 60-40%) with the new rules & reduced implied commission people will have less reason to churn, especially if you're near that 100k per year as the weekly total is based on Gross profit(pre commission)
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yes Bellamy but commission churning could lead to a small LOSS which would keep your gross profits down surely...
my thinking is that it will overall result in a small profit or loss but raise commission / implied commission levels... which (if i read it correctly) will offset some Expert Fees... just me thinking aloud tbh. |
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it only offsets the Expert fees in the same way it does the Premium Charge I think
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surely the only people affected are those hovering around one of the caps £25K AND £100K, and then it's a movable feast depending on your action of a year ago and how any buffer may look in practice.
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It depends how close to the next band you are, Hib. There is a danger you could end up going up to the next tier (0-20% or 20%-40%), which could well mean it costs you even more.
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Exactly, Swifty.
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Latalomne, it's all something to look forward to in the New Year! And now the portals have gone whilst they make some tweaks!
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fair point swifty/Latalomne...
and i can see how even a small PROFIT could tip you over the edge tbh... but if you are pretty much clear of both caps it's definitely a decent option to offset Expert Fee charges imv... altho i openly admit i still haven't fully got my head around the whole thing tbh. |
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Agreed. From experience, churning the way you describe is real head f*%k, though, especially if it's stuff you wouldn't normally bet on. You will inevitably hit a losing run, when all you're trying to do is break even. I'm not built for that and decided I was better off (mentally) just paying the PC!
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got to agree with you regarding the head fking angle Latalomne...
done a bit of it myself and altho long term you probably will lose or win small amounts... a losing run is not great for the brain... and inputting loads of bets manually is time consuming also... and i'm not one for using a BOT tbh coz i'd be too scared it screwed up. |
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Lata, im with you on just acepting the PC and paying it. I tried so mnay times churning etc but it can be so time consuming and ends up effecting your normal mindset when it comes to betting when you hit a number of loses like you say.
I have sympathy for anyone on the brink of the 25k and 100K band as it does look like they will be effected by the new charge, but for me and many others it looks like good news. |
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If you are sitting somewhere between the bands then the way i see it you used to have to make £100K to clear £60K, now you only have to make £75K to clear the same.
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Lata, im with you on just acepting the PC and paying it. I tried so mnay times churning etc but it can be so time consuming and ends up effecting your normal mindset when it comes to betting when you hit a number of loses like you say.
------------------------------------------------- that is definitely a down side of it Wicklow... i think if you can get your head around it and say to yourself 'it will eventually be a small profit or loss' then it's a good thing to do... but it is time consuming... if the time consuming angle was negated to an extent it would be better/easier imv. |
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Just churn on markets with massive liquidity, across 2 sides with a very small -EV; high profile football matches, Favourite is Evens/2.0, at off can get 5 figures to win in Match Odds market, and on the Asians back Dog+0.5 at 1.99; or lay Fav-0.5 at 2.01... which ever reciprocal works out mathematically best.
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if Betfair tweaked their BSP procedure i think it would help those folk who don't want to use a BOT but don't want to sit there event after event inputting prices or clicking on Gruss...
i'm sure it could be done to make the process more 'automated' which makes it easier imv. |
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Plus as per Bellamy's comment, higher rate 50%/60% PC payers would have done it mainly to keep inside the 40% band.
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that's way over my head tbh jamee but thanx anyway.
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The short of it is the new structure makes commission churning much less appealing than before. Harder to do and less upside.
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i definitely understand that jamee...
ta. |
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A very very good read, two or three points to clarify betfair (exchange) must be in serious trouble if they are resorting in trying to resuscitate the life back into the exchange with such a drastic measure , I can speak from knowing 5-6 ex major players on the exchange before the introduction of the premium charge and there is no way they will be back to using the exchange with the red tape involved now, its desperate measures from a desperate company,
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my favoured option has ALWAYS been a straight 5% commission for EVERYONE...
everyone knows where they stand that way... no doubt there would be winners and losers (as always)... but by chri$t it would simplify things... no doubt i'll be told i'm talking rubbish. |
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Yeah originally the bottom line was you could be better than other punters WITHOUT you being robbed and the losers left alone. Taking more money from winners was and is bad publicity imo.
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It screams we don't want you to aspire to be a pro gambler.
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..." 5-6 ex major players on the exchange before the introduction of the premium charge" What do they do now ? Packed in sports betting ?
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As previously cited, there are clear examples where liquidity could decline as a result of these changes.
Can anyone make a case for where liquidity increases through the Expert Fee because I can't? |
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I remember 20 plus years ago on here there was a good discussion without all the vitriol concerning the 5% deduction and imho it was discussed by better and more intelligent people than myself about the high claw back (commission) being taken by betfair and how it was disproportionate thus it would ultimately create a bad business model for the company, Before even matchbook or WBX were on the scene the consensus stated at that time a 1% or 0.5% on every bet whether it be a win or a lay would be advantageous in generating a larger turnover for both the customers and the owners of the company as it would simplify the whole exchange.
My opinion is there problems are deeper lying than the premium charge |
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It only has a negative reult from my point of view for me , personally. I have made a profit most years without using bots , gruss or any other programme . I have never paid the Premium charge, but under these rules I will . This year have been 44k up , that is now down to £15k , so I would have been charged for the weeks I was over 25k up. Quite simply if I reach the 25k limit I will take my business elsewhere , until the year is out .
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Yeah. I think the win/loss of all users probably lies on a normal curve with a very high percentage of players in the
plus or minus £20,000 a year area. The ones on the win side will now pay only commission. I imagine BF have calculated that they create most of the liquidity and that the huge players will absorb the changes due to their resilience and lack of another playground. |
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Howard no they are still sports betting (racing/football mostly) but into a market where they are very very very very small fish in a massive gold fish bowl. (if you read between the lines i hope thats enough information for you )
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Where on earth will you take your business blunder?, given that this is the only viable exchange and traditional "bookmakers" won't allow anyone to win.
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"My opinion is there problems are deeper lying than the premium charge" As a very bright betting insider on Simon Notts interviews said the betfair exchange makes very little or no money and it's just kept to stop anyone else doing it and becoming no1. It's kept in storage until USA/China ever becomes big. It's a very low profit business relative to turnover. And loads of small/medium punters want to beat a bookie anyway not lose to brighter punters than themselves.
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Can anyone make a case for where liquidity increases through the Expert Fee because I can't?
---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- shaun... i don't think it will make much difference either way tbh... only gamechanger was getting the vast majority of states in the USA on board. |
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shaungoater 19 Dec 24 11:46
As previously cited, there are clear examples where liquidity could decline as a result of these changes. Can anyone make a case for where liquidity increases through the Expert Fee because I can't? IR is house controlled money..last 3f theres only quids in ev box.Absolutely nothing will change this now. |
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u still making 20/30k a year though ?
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