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Novice Hurdles/Bumpers 23/24

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Replies: 764
By:
paulo47
When: 29 Jan 24 10:31
Really interested in Dont tell Su in the second at Hereford , any amount of promise in its first run at Chepstow , with the errors ironed out and the same degree of enthusiasm I saw it as a real Albert Bartlett prospect . Second run it looked like it had been to reform school and was sulking . So interesting to see what today brings .
By:
in hell
When: 29 Jan 24 11:13
For me I can't see how State Man's will beat CH, maybe change the tactics and try make it real slog of a race going down the hill. But State's Man isn't going to come from behind CH and out sprint it.

Lossiemouth getting half a stone would have a better chance than State Man imo

I'd like them to try Impaire Et Passe from the front this weekend and not sit behind State Man as that will just be the same result again
By:
differentdrum
When: 29 Jan 24 12:00
I get the impression that Mullins has a real soft spot for State Man, and that is part of the reason for deflecting Lossiemouth elsewhere. He wouldn't want to admit that Lossiemouth could just be better.
By:
1st time poster
When: 29 Jan 24 13:19
thats not really the ? is it
the ? is can you see state man beating lossimouth,if as is obvious the answers is yes and they think lossimouth has a far better chance in  the other race its a no brainer
By:
MJK
When: 29 Jan 24 13:26
Amazing over the years how many times I've thought that some of the Leopardstown maidens at Christmas didn't look up to scratch, yet time and again plenty of winners come out of them, even ones like the last winner there at Punchestown.
By:
sageform
When: 29 Jan 24 13:41
Mystery how Below The Radar drifted quite so much. It was fair enough during the race as his jumping never matched the second but before the race they couldn't give him away. Double coming from Don't Tell Su?
By:
sageform
When: 29 Jan 24 13:48
Even if Lossie is better than State Man, I can't see either of them beating CH if he is on his best form and there is no other race for State Man while there is for Lossie. It is exactly this sort of situation where one trainer has 4 or 5 contenders but is reluctant to run them all that diminishes the quality of the championship races. The biggest loser will be the owner of the second in the Mares Hurdle assuming that Lossie wins it.
By:
differentdrum
When: 29 Jan 24 13:52
I am trying to argue that horses should run in races that suit them best, rather than the perceived easiest option. Mullins is just hoping to get away with the longer trip. I think Lossiemouth would beat State Man, but more importantly, provide some genuine opposition to Constitution Hill. That would be the best outcome for racing. All sorts of excuses have been trotted out as why she can't take on Constitution Hill, including comparison with Vauban. Vauban didn't look good enough from the start of his second campaign, and of course he didn't get any weight advantage. As regards what I said earlier it is relevant to the choice. Imagine she went to the Champion Hurdle and beat State Man, questions would inevitably be asked why Mullins didn't realise she was his number one hope.
By:
sageform
When: 29 Jan 24 14:43
But even if he is pretty sure she is superior to State Man, why get her beaten by CH when she should win the mares allowing State Man to get second in the CH? A trainer's responsibility is to advise his owner as to his advised course of action and so long as the owner does not object, to carry out the plan. Rich Ricci seemed happy to get a Mares win rather than a CH second even though he gets less prize money and he pays the bills. Keeping punters informed is important but running a horse just to please punters is never a good idea.
By:
1st time poster
When: 29 Jan 24 14:57
what doe,s it matter if she beats state man but like state man loses to  CH, theres an easier race for lossimouth but no chel alt for state man
By:
differentdrum
When: 29 Jan 24 15:46
Personally, I think you are both getting carried away with the hype surrounding Constitution Hill. I don't think it's any certainty at all that he would beat Lossiemouth. Other than State Man, he has beaten second division opposition easily. The weight allowance would be a very useful advantage. The cheerleaders want stars to shout about so Constitution Hill has been elevated to a level beyond his actual achievements. He looked vulnerable when upped in trip, and Lossiemouth's connections might want to take note of that Aintree performance. In a wider sense, but probably the most important, the sport is the loser if competition dies. I am a fan of the sport, I am not prepared to come on making a case for owners to lessen the value of the sport.

Likely she will never be as good as she looks, but at least Bioluminescence got the job done today. Built By Ballymore won easily again, despite the jock looking all over the place throughout. Thankfully, the horse had a ton in hand, and it looked like he took charge of the situation himself. Champagne Admiral changed tactics, and ran a shocker.

At Hereford, Village Master looked as if he didn't want to know. A million miles from the promise in points. Black Hawk Eagle looks one to keep on the right side, winning easily despite an over confident ride. Bungle the last, and it's another Nemean Lion job. Ground doesn't seem an issue, just a question as to whether he could step up into a better race. You needed to be 133 to get into the County last season, and I guess he will be around 125.
By:
brandyontherocks
When: 29 Jan 24 17:29
Nicely put, Sage.
By:
differentdrum
When: 29 Jan 24 17:53
Sometimes I wonder if this is a punters forum or an owners forum? We all know the reasons why they are ducking the Champion Hurdle, and we all know who pays the bills - that doesn't need explaining - but for a watcher of the sport to actually support the idea of less competition is crazy. You must actually like being bored? I am taking a little guess, but I don't think money is a consideration for Ricci.   

Not the usual quality at Chepstow tomorrow, it's a pretty poor day all round. It looks a weak bumper with the front two looking stayers. My preference would be for the very unimaginatively named Bobby's Nelson. Another from the Hobbs/White 'placed in points' collection, his form has had a couple of boosts.

Just on the subject of Hobbs. Ben Jones is now pushing towards that 50 that I suggested he should be aiming towards, and that's even with the mystery disappearance in December. He is clearly benefitting from the support from Pauling, the kind of support he has never really got from Hobbs.
By:
duffy
When: 29 Jan 24 18:01
dd,

Don't you think that Lossie could be being made to look better than she is, she keeps winning what turn out to be sprints and the time she had to get down and dirty, allbeit with a bad run through, she couldn't get back to Gala Marceau who's a stayer, I think a thorough test at 2 miles against CH would not be of any help to her and the step up in trip to the Mares would see her vulnerable too. I'd be more worried from a Constitution Hill point of view of his own stablemate Sir Gino who's race was run way quicker for the majority and who finished off even better than Lossie.

Fun and games splitting CH and SG up next year.
By:
differentdrum
When: 29 Jan 24 18:42
I would just put a line through that Leopardstown race. I think she did remarkably well to even get back in the race. She is miles better than the winner. As for the Champion Hurdle if I was the opposition I would be doing my beast to make sure there is no pace. Why would you want to set the race up for the favourite? Sir Gino has looked good so far, but until he races against the irish, anything else is jumping the gun.
By:
brandyontherocks
When: 29 Jan 24 18:43
But we are also allowed to voice our opinion.
Even if it does not concur to yours.
By:
1st time poster
When: 29 Jan 24 18:52
its a toughie
listen to trainers/owners or punters with antepost bets on horses in particular races
like i say a toughie
the best trainer in the business not knowing which of his has best chance of winning ch hu
By:
differentdrum
When: 29 Jan 24 18:58
Did anyone say you couldn't?

Maybe you do actually think less competitive racing is a good idea - that is what you arguing for - but there is nothing worse than people who just play devil's advocate for the sake of it.

Happy to hear you elaborate on why having less competitive races during the sport's biggest showcase meeting is a good thing.
By:
brandyontherocks
When: 29 Jan 24 19:22
Competitive racing died when they diluted the meeting.

In regards to Lossiemouth, they have made it very clear that this season they planned to go easy with her.
Next year, if she is that good, we will hopefully get the clash.
By:
sageform
When: 29 Jan 24 20:46
It is quite possible that Lossiemouth would win the CH by 10 lengths proving you right dd but the decision has to be taken by those closest to the horse and that is the owner and the trainer. I would love to see the Championship races run at different meetings giving some horses the option of running in more than one but that is not the case at the moment when Cheltenham dominates. It is of course quite possible that a Constitution Hill/Lossiemouth clash could happen at Aintree or Punchestown but I doubt it. One thing is for sure, if one of them got a beating at Cheltenham, they would not run again this season.
By:
ribero1
When: 29 Jan 24 20:53
Segal putting up today's winner Billericay Dickie & Jango Baie for Ballymore tonight.
By:
differentdrum
When: 29 Jan 24 21:19
Amazing, a horse who for 90% of the race didn't look as if he was going to win a shocking maiden hurdle. I can only assume he has joined the Paul Kealy dart throwing club. If the horse didn't have those connections he wouldn't look value at 66/1.
By:
MJK
When: 30 Jan 24 05:16
Talk of the French Champion Hurdle for Lossiemouth ??
By:
differentdrum
When: 30 Jan 24 10:32
Who's doing that? Is this the number one stable, or confusion corner? Everything about her shouts two-miler and someone thinks it's a good idea to go three miles plus on likely testing ground. All this nonsense would be avoided if you just ran horses over their best distance. It's an idea that plenty of the time Mullins just seems to ignore. Yesterday, he made comments about the winners needing a trip. How is it he can have an instant idea on those lesser horses, but he is still farting about with Ballyburn even though it should have been obvious from last season that this one was a stayer? You can only draw the conclusion he actually enjoys creating confusion and chaos in the markets. It's his messing around that has done more than anything to kill ante-post.
By:
in hell
When: 30 Jan 24 10:51
French Champion Hurdle is 3 miles plus, she doesn't seem to screaming out for the trip.

I'm of the opinion if you win a Champion Hurdle trial by 10L then you should be in the Champion Hurdle.

If State Man does get turned over this weekend, do you think he will change his mind with Lossiemouth?
By:
differentdrum
When: 30 Jan 24 11:30
I don't think so. It would make it look as if the original decision was all about State Man, and nothing much to do with Lossiemouth's best interests. I think trainers in general are a pretty stubborn bunch, and once they see things in a certain direction they find it very hard to change track.

I think a huge percentage of the racing public would want to see her in the Champion Hurdle, but sadly, they don't have any clout. If 99 out of 100 people said run in the Champion Hurdle, Mullins wouldn't take any notice. Racing Post site has asked the question, and it feels like they have dragged someone out to decry Lossiemouth just to play devil's advocate. Not very convincing.
By:
1st time poster
When: 30 Jan 24 11:54
anyone reading this thread would think it would be rude not a cheeky trixie/treble on
ballyburn /supreme
stateman /ch hu
lossimouth/mares race
just in case and enjoy the meltdown LaughLaugh
By:
sageform
When: 30 Jan 24 12:57
Reality check in the RP today. Lossiemouth has not achieved a high enough rating to have PLACED in any of the last 10 Champion Hurdles. None of the horses she beat last Saturday are within 15lb of State Man, never mind Constitution Hill. She is a 5yo mare and as such she has a mountain of stats to overcome to win a CH. Not saying she can't but only 2 5yo geldings have done it in more than 20 years and no 5yo mares have even tried so far as I recall. Honeysuckle was 7 and 8, Annie Power 8 when they won.
By:
penzance
When: 30 Jan 24 14:25
Lossiemouth will need more than the mares allowance to trouble Constitution Hill.
Out of her depth with him.
By:
duffy
When: 30 Jan 24 16:56
Bottom line was that she won a sprint against a horse that wanted further....I agree her only chance would be for State Man to set a crawl and for her to do CH for a bit of toe "perhaps"in a 2 furlong burn up but if that looked to be happening I would fully expect Nico to send CH on and make his own running, we've seen what CH can do off of a through gallop in his Supreme. Let's see how Lossiemouth copes with an eyeballs out 2 mile test.
By:
LoyalHoncho
When: 30 Jan 24 17:40
"farting about".
Willie Mullins?
Laugh
The man is a genius and simply doesn;t deserve such crudity.
By:
differentdrum
When: 30 Jan 24 18:21
If you want sycophantic cheerleading stuff count me out. The last few days on here has been akin to having a chat with Rich Ricci. As if that guy needs a platform. I really don't need that, but if that's what people want the floor is yours.
By:
MJK
When: 01 Feb 24 14:45
Facile Vega entered in the 2M5F novice at the weekend as well as the Arkle. Interesting if connections go down that road.
By:
brandyontherocks
When: 01 Feb 24 18:46
Vega sticks to 2 miles.

Interesting Irish point winner running for Nicholls in NH Flat race at Sandown on Saturday.
By:
sageform
When: 01 Feb 24 18:49
Fire Flyer was very short but still quite impressive after a wayward start. Headed for the EBF final apparently.
By:
saxon farm
When: 02 Feb 24 01:26
DD
This is a HORSE RACING forum… not solely a punter’s forum.
By:
paulo47
When: 02 Feb 24 10:07
We enjoy this thread for other reasons though , lets keep it that way .
By:
in hell
When: 02 Feb 24 11:39
It was an excellent thread

Good piece by Keith Melrose and following on from the Kevin Blake about taking the Mares Hurdle out of Cheltenham and putting it elsewhere in the calendar. It's got more mares racing put it shouldn't stop competition in the Championship races which it has done now for a number of years at Cheltenham.
By:
1st time poster
When: 04 Feb 24 14:56
think mullins needs to pack it in,just trolling DIFFERENT today over ballyburn for supreme and stateman for ch hurdle and lossimouth for mares Laugh
By:
brandyontherocks
When: 04 Feb 24 16:52
The chat this weekend on most of the topics on this forum is why it is so dead these days.

This topic, though, has been a very enjoyable read.
Great input and debate.

This weekend has seen a lot of criticism aimed at Mullins as always.

He has an embarrassment of riches, as he has had for a while, but as always he is happy to run them at this meeting.

Unlike most Grade 1s in the early season, his horses run on their merit here as he sorts out his pecking order for March.

Kargese was much improved yesterday in winning the Spring juvenile. She was far too keen on debutwhen only just touched off in a Grade 2. She won nicely yesterday if a little too exuberant and can make her presence felt with her allowance at Cheltenham.

Marine Nationale was very flat. Never travelled or jumped at any stage. Hopefully something will come to light over the next day or two. It leaves the Arkle very wide open.

Galopin Des Champs won well again and will obviously be hard to beat on the Friday. Supporters of FastorSlow should take plenty of encouragement from that run.

The NH flat winner looked very good. The Champion Bumper is not a race I agree with or look at.

Today Fact To File looked top class in a match. The runner up is a decent horse who was made to look very ordinary. I like the winner a lot.

Ballyburn proved Mullins knows what trip to send his best novice over once again. And will take all the beating in the opener at Prestbury Park.

El Fabiolo has never and will never look pretty over a fence but his ability and engine sets him apart from nearly every other horse in training.

Another enjoyable DRF.
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