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Novice Hurdles/Bumpers 23/24
Novice Hurdles/Bumpers 23/24
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Replies: 764
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not sure why you needed to add
IN AN 18 RUNNER RACE,  |
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I added it because he did win a four runner bumper on Welsh National day beating Twiston-Davies.
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Not saying this is the copper bottomed reason for the support but Johnny Dineen who has built up a bit of a cult following on the Upping The Ante podcast alongside David Jennings put up Ballyburn at 12's for the Supreme this week.
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Ruby Walsh also said the Supreme should be Ballyburns target on the Road To Cheltenham show.
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Interesting novice at Catterick today, Hasting could obviously win on his bumper form but wasn"t impressive in a poor race at Leicester on hurdles debut ........Pic Roc ran well in a hot race at Newbury on hurdle debut .....Looks a bet to nothing win and place ....snaffled some of the 6.8 ....would amaze me if he does not go off 2nd favourite...
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Pauling is in good form so I can see that one. Defence Witness is the dark one. Unbeaten but beat very little in a bumper so might be ordinary but equally could be quite useful.
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duffy and unclepuncle,
Thanks for the replies. Just had a look at Upping The Ante. It's amazing what punters just accept. Not sure they managed an ante-post winner between the two of them last year. Dineen is a bit of fun, but as a pundit, he isn't a patch on the guy who used to do the programme. It seems his argument for Ballyburn revolves around pack shuffling and the Dublin Festival, two things I alluded to above. It's just threadbare stuff, and really it boils down to getting a bigger price for one race than another. The justification given for running him over the wrong trip was that he was too free, and there were no signs of that in a small field race at Leopardstown. Bookmakers must love the two of them. Walsh is fine in analysing races after they have happened, but that should be it. The vast majority of his calls are wrong, you wouldn't think he was close to the horses. Even when he gets something right as with Galopin Des Champs, long term he is wrong. Would anyone now think the Turners was a better option than the Brown Advisory for a thorough stayer? He was always trying to push Sir Gerhard into the Supreme, and now he wants Impaire Et Passe in the Champiomn, despite Mullins saying he would never beat State Man. Contrary for the sake of it would be my theory. Is he still sponsored by Paddy Power? |
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When Ruby was riding he used to persuade Mullins to run horses in different races and not clash purely so he could ride them all. He does the opposite these days. I'm sure Paul Townend appreciates it.
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Hasthing got the job, but looked a big, raw galloper. I would be surprised if he took in the Festival.
Just the two tomorrow. Inion Tiogair with the extra places in the handicap at Wincanton. Upped in trip this looks a better fit than locking swords with better horses in novice races. Could have just done with trainer/jock being in better form. At Huntingdon, I didn't expect there to be that much between Tellherthename and Dartmoor Pirate so the each-way bet on the latter was the obvious way to go. Huge amount of hype over substance surrounding Tellherthename, and Dartmoor Pirate couldn't have been more impressive on hurdling debut. Had expected to be backing Chapeau De Soleil again, but one taken out, and no 18/1 around so far. Given the ante-post move, Romeo Coolio is the one who is expected to ignite the irish bumper scene on Saturday. |
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dd
I wouldn’t be worrying about ante post markets at this stage… anyone with half a clue cannot get a proper bet on. Besides which the over round is at best defensive & at worst extortionate. Going against the grain, we are lucky to have a/p available… when I started punting in the early 80s all I got was a day of the race mkarket in Cheltenham novices. With respect, if you’re going to get agitated about a contrary view to your own….try, don’t get mad, get even. There are opportunities! |
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dd,
We have a further developement re:Ballyburngate, Frank Hickey got rather excited tipping him up for the Supreme on the PP Horse's Mouth podcast, he was particularly effusive recounting what Walsh thinks of the horse being such a quick horse at home and how perfect he is for the Supreme. They explain away the defeat by Firefox as a race run at a crawl rather than a typical Supreme where Ballyburns end to end pace will be seen to best light, he also tipped up Gidleigh Park for the Ballymore. https://player.fm/series/paddy-power-presents-from-the-horses-mouth/ep-456-cheltenham-countdown-extra-ep-1-frank-hickey-allaho-is-not-winning-the-ryanair-chase From 5 minutes is where he says all he has to say on the horse. |
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So many of the novice events at Cheltenham will be decided by which event their trainers decide to run which horse in. My only bet is Hermes Allen. I backed him at 42 for the Brown Advisory before his debut over fencers and laid off at 24 when he won. So far so good but then along comes Stay Away Fay and we learn that Hermes Allen might make way for him and go Turners instead so I had a small interest there. I doubt that HA is good enough to win the Turners so I might well end up a point down despite having what still appears to be a good AP bet for the Brown Advisory. I won't be backing anything else from any trainer who might move the counters around the board until the overnight stage.
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saxon and duffy,
My ante-post record is very good, I suspect much, much better than the people being quoted here who I believe are market agitators acting primarily for the bookmakers. In the case of Ballyburn he is now a short price for two Festival races. Bookmakers will love that situation. I have already referenced Constitution Hill and Frankel, ante-post is often the only way you will get a decent price about a good horse. I have already fallen foul of Mullins over Gaelic Warrior. What price would that horse be for a mediocre Stayers Hurdle? Ballyburn is a different kettle of fish altogether. He should have had the Ballymore as his target, and been unbeaten throughout the season. He isn't devoid of speed, but is essentially a stayer. Three miles would be more suitable than two miles. Mullins should never have run him over two miles. |
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Agree , I have backed Monty's Star at various prices for the Brown Advisory , for some reason media talk is on the NHC . This horse has an almost identical profile to Minella Indo plus same owner and trainer . The latter never ran in excess of three miles (ignore the 1/2f ) until finishing second in a Gold Cup , its prep being a win in the RSA . Why on earth would they run it in the National Hunt Chase .- apart from the fact it jumps brilliantly and gets more fences haha .
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The whole thing is sinister with the markets being increasingly manipulated by those on the payroll of bookmakers. Anyone in that situation should not be given any airtime at all. It's all about moving markets, and very little to do with what might actually suit the horses. I base all of my judgements on the latter.
There are now two similar prices for Ballyburn, one is a true price, and one is a manipulated price. Unfortunately, most trainers/connections won't look beyond the price itself. |
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It should have been obvious beforehand, but the main conclusion from that Grade 1 was none of those Mullins horses are a substitute for Ballyburn. Ile Atlantique had the run of the race, and was probably flattered to finish so close. Both first and second are no worldbeaters. Firefox didn't stay, and Chapeau De Soleil looked clueless, although to be fair to him, he had looked a three miler prior to this, and still does.
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Tullyhill got the job done this time, although I think that owed more to the mediocrity of the opposition than any great quality on his part.
Coco Mademoiselle disappointing, not for the first time. Tellherthename much too good, although Dartmoor Pirate did manage to land the each-way, despite the severe last flight bungle. For whatever reason I don't think he reproduced his previous win. |
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Hills have cut Ballyburn from 5/2-2/1 in their NRNB Ballymore market. That should be the only relevant market move in the last week.
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So you still think that the Firefox form with Ballyburn is all wrong? It could be if Firefox is a 2 miler and Ballyburn needs 2.5. If Firefox ran anywhere near his form today then neither of them is much good.
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Or it could be that Firefox beat Ballyburn because the race was run at a crawl and a race fit Firefox simply outpaced Ballyburn who was having his first run of the season over the final couple of flights at a time when it appeared that all of Elliott's were going in.
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'So you still think that the Firefox form with Ballyburn is all wrong'
If this is aimed at me then I have never disputed the form. I have been consistent throughout in saying it was a mistake to ever run Ballyburn over two miles. Nothing to do with race fitness, or it being a slowly run race (that shouldn't have mattered that much because Ballyburn was always close enough to the lead), he just never looked anything like picking up in the style of a proper two miler. If they went faster he isn't suddenly going to start jumping like a sharp two miler. At two and a half miles (and above) Ballyburn is likely different class to Firefox. There is no argument to suggest that Ballyburn is somehow no good because Firefox wilted up in trip. Had he been in today's field I would have expected Ballyburn to have won by daylight. |
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dd,
So do you hold no store in what Walsh suggests that in the Supreme it is the "pace" to be able to travel throughout the 2 miles of what is typically a thorough test at the trip, that's what he is saying Ballyburn is, rather than the "speed" needed for the longer race, I assume in that case it's referring to the longer race often being steadily run and then a sprint to the line. |
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I have already said that he is in pocket of the bookmakers, and any idea that he would offer a helping hand to the punters is a joke. Throughout his riding career he looked on punters as the lowest of the low. His record as a pundit is terrible.
It would seem Walsh has decided to completely ignore pedigree, and all the five runs. It looks as if he is desperately trying to be different in fitting a race to a horse when clearly it should be the other way around. Facile Vega was much more of a two miler than Ballyburn, but he didn't jump well enough, and he hadn't got anything like the foot of Marine Nationale. At one stage he was their leading novice, and he ended up winning nothing. This year Ballyburn is by far their leading novice and should win the Ballymore, but Walsh doesn't want that to happen. Why? Ballyburn is an exceptionally strong galloper. If he gets on the front end I don't envisage anything 'sprinting' past him. Far more likely he will be clearing away into the distance. Yes, the Ballymore has thrown up some Champion Hurdle types, but that is to ignore far more staying types who had stamina, and a bit of pace. |
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I would certainly not write off Ballyburn but when Willie had 3 leave Firefox for dead today, you need to believe that the Firefox/Ballyburn form is no guide. I know that is your position dd and I would have agreed with you before today when Willie appeared to produce 2 far better 2.5 mile novices.
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I can't believe anyone could think Firefox has run his race, and hence use the bare form as a guide. Firefox palpably didn't get home. Ile Atlantique had every chance and wasn't good enough to beat this year's Champ Kiely. They are not in the same league as Ballyburn.
Punished myself and listened to Road To Cheltenham. Walsh now doesn't have an opinion on Ballyburn's trip so all that two mile stuff is old hat. |
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Yeah, I was surprised to hear his indifference after listening to what Hickey said
dd, stick pins in your eyes and listen to the junior be edition of the horse's mouth that Hickey references Walsh in regarding the horse  |
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I have had a pretty horrible week healthwise. Hopefully, on the improve now, but watching that would probably give me a relapse.
Not too many betting opportunities tomorrow. Taken Trelawne to turn over Colonel Harry. I just think Trelawne races like the classier animal. The other one is left field, Walk In The Shadow with extra places in the mares' at Fairyhouse. Will probably have a go in the Warwick bumper, but waiting for the non runner to be taken out. |
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Not sure why it took so long to take the two horses who ran yesterday out of the Warwick bumper. It would have delayed betting, and racing doesn't need that sort of thing.
By no means a confident selection, but ended up going each-way on Ami Bondhu. Landed a touch last time, and did get an entry in Let It Rain's Ascot bumper which was much stronger than today's race. The obvious negative is the mediocre form of the stable, but let's hope they feel it is time for another gamble. Bill Joyce is of obvious interest, but if he was well above average you might have expected him to be shorter. Trelawne has been well supported, and there has been a slight nibble for Walk In The Shadow. She has a very good pedigree, and hinted at promise when given an ordinary ride on her bumper debut. If today doesn't work out she could switch back into that sphere. Not sure why, but Romeo Coolio has been easy to back in the concluding bumper. Of course it might be a different story closer to the off. I notice there has been a little support for Lucid Dreams, dropping back to a more suitable trip, after his non effort last time. I have given him another chance each-way at double figures. |
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Those first two bets just confirmed the difficulty in trying to make any sort of profit.
The jock on Walk In The Shadow has almost certainly run an unfit horse into ground, and instead of finishing in front of a couple of three figure horses, he has ended up being beaten well beaten by them. Had he just ridden the horse to finish there has to be a good chance that those placings would have been reversed. As expected it was a shocking race for a Grade 1 track. Trelawne was backed from 100/30 to 13/8, but has gifted the race to the uneasy favourite. The writing was the on the wall almost from the point he ballooned the initial fences, and he has ended looking an absolute dog which nobody could have predicted beforehand. |
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The Wetherby bumper, I’ve had a bit of each of Luna de Castana (9/1) and Isabel de Clare (18/1). Both very nicely bred and of interest..
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Isabel was a non-runner, Luna was backed late into 10/3. Ran a nice race, travelled well in 3rd, got outpaced/ran green and dropped to 5th, before running on again to make the frame. One to follow imo.
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Luna De Castana shortened up, but it's the same old problem that so many of these first timers are not produced 'ready to win', so you get a finish between the short priced form horse, and one from a stable who do actually try to win these races.
Lucid Dreams back to form, but from a punting point of view he has just knocked on the door a little too enough. His jumping technique hasn't improved, and you wonder if a better jock might help his cause. Very unlikely that he will turn over Paul Townend in a head to head. Bill Joyce was backed close to the off, and those backers never had a worry. Ami Bondhu travelled like a selling plater, and never had a prayer of reproducing the win. The Fairyhouse bumper was a farce of a race, but some bookmakers have still managed to shorten up Romeo Coolio for the Festival Bumper. The bare form of today's race wouldn't be within light years of winning that race. Hopefully, if they still have a horse left, Twiston-Davies will now concentrate on a tilt at the National Hunt Chase with Broadway Boy. He was thoroughly exposed today, and the first task would be to try and freshen him up before March. |
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Yes, Fairyhouse bumper was a farce.
I hope Romeo Coolio has another run before Cheltenham, possibly at DRF. |
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I should have added that I think the Ryanair market has massively overreacted to the win of Banbridge. I don't have fond memories of this horse having been on at 22/1 for a weak Turners when he ended up a no show. He did little more than get the job done in a weak Grade 1 at Aintree. He certainly wasn't impressive. Today's race wasn't anywhere as good as the attached cheerleading. He beat a decent yardstick, but no more than that. It's beyond me that he is now half the price of Envoi Allen, a horse who has achieved so much more, including three Festival wins. On reasonable ground he would seem to have an excellent chance of making that four.
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Perhaps comments afterwards by Elliott regarding the bumper winner has frightened bookies a bit into shortening it. He said he left loads to work on for Cheltenham and added to the fact it was a mess of a race he was very happy with the run.
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On a relatively quiet day, and perhaps with a few more of those ahead, time to take stock of the ante-post position. Just two months to go.
Firstly, only one organisation going non runner no bet when in previous years several would have been up and running. Bet365 the very noticeable absentee. Sign of the times when they are not bothered about drumming up business for racing's showpiece. My position isn't as good as in previous seasons, down in no small measure to a high percentage of injuries, the illogical thought processes of some trainers, and the constant barrage of those seeking to manipulate markets on the bookmakers. Anyway, a quick spin through to assess the damage. SUPREME - JERIKO DU REPONET This is more about Henderson/JP than anything else. Horse has done nothing wrong, but he hasn't done anything special either. He is 5/1, and Tellherthename who appears committed to the race, and hasn't achieved a lot less is as big as 80/1. That doesn't look right even allowing for the Aintree setback. Definitely a race to watch the entries. ARKLE - JPR ONE (EW) Hoping for a small field again. Better ground and Cheltenham should help, but very unlikely he can trouble Marine Nationale. MARES - MARIE'S ROCK (EW) This is down to how much the management have wrecked the horse in trying to pursue the Stayers dream. The horse of two years ago would have every chance. NATIONAL HUNT CHASE - BROADWAY BAY (EW) Hopefully, they will have seen sense and abandoned the idea of going for shorter race. This was always the more realistic target, but they need to freshen him up. BALLYMORE - BALLYBURN/ENCANTO BRUNO (EW) Talked enough about Ballyburn. You can do no more than put the right horse up in the right race. Unless they make another ****-up, I expect him to win. On the basis of his course and distance win Encanto Bruno is fully entitled to take his chance, but Cromwell has made an absolute horlicks of things since then. Why he wants to turn a bridle winning Graded horse into a handicapper is beyond me. BROWN ADVISORY - IROKO/KLASSICAL DREAM/FLOORING PORTER Has proven a desperately unlucky race, with the loss of the first two names. Flooring Porter is another Cromwell horse that has lost his way. Better ground should help, but considering cashing out at a loss. He won't win a poor Stayers. CROSS COUNTRY - LATENIGHTPASS (EW) Taken very well to these obstacles, and would have a very good chance even on revised terms, but Grand National possible so may be a no show which would be disappointing. BUMPER - LET IT RAIN (EWNRNB) High class mare with scope, and the form pick so far. I hope she takes her chance. RYANAIR - ENVOI ALLEN (EW) On decent ground every chance of repeating last year's win. STAYERS - GAELIC WARRIOR/ SPRINGWELL BAY Mullins change of tack with Gaelic Warrior was a huge blow. He would have been a relatively short priced favourite for the stayers, and still have had plentty of time to go chasing. Big question mark remains left handed. Springwell Bay non stayer. MARES NOVICE - OLD GROUND/ONLY BY NIGHT (EW) Cashed out Old Ground for a loss as no information whatsover - presumably, has always been out for the season and Mullins has just said nothing. Only By Night has done nothing wrong, in fact she has been very impressive on the bridle. That said things have gone quiet with no entries. TRIUMPH - KALA CONTI (EW)/SIR GINO Kala Conti not the biggest, but showed a very willing attitude to land the most competitive juvenile so far this season. Better ground should help. Sir Gino was impressive at Kempton, but needs to show more in a better race to justify his price. Again it's more about Henderson and connections than anything else. COUNTY - NEMEAN LION (EWNRNB) Just failed to land a gamble yesterday, a last flight bungle not helping. Jock a consistent liability. Will likely get a mass of entries. Not cut for this race so presumably, expected to continue over a longer trip. ALBERT BARTLETT - ENCANTO BRUNO/CHAPEAU DE SOLEIL (EW)/GIDLEIGH PARK (EW)/ JOHNNYWHO (EWNRNB) Encanto Bruno cashed out at a loss. By far the best of these is Gidleigh Park. Not quite as confident as Ballyburn, but not far off. I only wish I was as confident about Fry getting the target right. Johnnywho is solid enough, but Chapeau De Soleil looks wayward, and needs to sort his jumping out. This would be a better trip for him. GOLD CUP - CORACH RAMBLER (EW) At least it seems they are going to give it a go. The two runs have been disappointing, and even if he can produce a stronger staying performance, it seems unlikely that he will have the class to trouble the favourite. MARES CHASE - HALKA DU TABERT Another disaster. Out for season. Not many high profile horses are out for the season, but I have managed to acquire three of them in addition to a notable switcher in Gaelic Warrior. I could certainly do with luck turning at some point. |
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Easy win for Mystical Power, but it was a weak, four-runner race. The fact that he has been elevated to Supreme favourite seems more a reflection of that market than his own achievements. Now we have a situation where JP has the two favourites, and straight away everyone thinks they can't run against each other. Why not? All their form is over that trip. To shunt them around would seem to suggest that the trainers have been running them over the wrong trip. There is far too much fitting a horse to a race. They are either two-milers, or not two-milers.
Not at all surprised that Blood Destiny was turned over. When a horse blows out once it can clearly happen again, and it looks if he has plenty of holes in him. |
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JP has history of running two in the Supreme, he loves it, and that's not even taking into account A Dream To Share, although time is running out for him.
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No more bookie accounts so only had 2 bets thus far GDC (bits on at 4-4.1) after his seasonal debut. Which I thought was more than satisfactory. I really couldn't understand the negativity at the time. And HIGH CLASS HERO for the Albert Bartlett on here for bits and bobs between 13-14. Kicking myself for not backing Marine Nationale before his chasing debut. Looked a superstar over hurdles and looks even more so over fences. His sire (French Navy) was a real friend to me on more than one occasion at the racecourse.
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I flagged up Bossofthebrownies on debut - promise without ever being involved - and he is the only one for me today. If he comes forward from that debut he would have every chance of landing the each-way extra places. The fact that Bet365 are offering no cash out (100/1-40/1 10p Rule 4) seems to indicate how their concessions have markedly dipped over the last 12 months.
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