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Novice Hurdles/Bumpers 23/24

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Replies: 764
By:
sageform
When: 30 Dec 23 14:16
Queens Gamble easy to back but still gets the job done. The Mares novice over 2 miles could be too short but she is probably not good enough for the 2.5 mile mares.
By:
brandyontherocks
When: 30 Dec 23 15:12
Nice complement to Gidleigh Park there.
By:
differentdrum
When: 30 Dec 23 16:47
Quite frustrating, but Rehill Relic made it a small winning day. He was a massive drifter (6/1-18/1), and hard to believe he wouldn't be far more effective on better ground. Williams the latest criticised jock to land a bundle of winners, and well done me to pick the Nicholls' useless horse. The change of tactics - held up, stuck out wide - didn't work at all for Larchmont Lass, and she probably didn't even get close to her previous form. One to avoid. Centara was nursed home, and seemed to benefit from one or two in behind being ridden for another day. I thought Johnnywho was the best in the Challow before the race, and I still think so after the race. Some absolute nonsense from that lightweight fool, Tom Stanley, suggesting JP should aim him at the Pertemps? His preparation hadn't been perfect, he was a big drifter (3/1-13/2), but he has still managed to finish best of all, beaten two lengths in a Grade 1. Turning in he was going to win, but from that point I suspect the preparation has told, before he stayed on when the race was effectively over. Better preparation, same trip (Sidney Banks?), and let's see what happens. Captain Teague was a stone better than Cheltenham. Hugely frustrating for anyone who backed him in that race. What a difference a year makes. Last year we had that nonsense from Cobden about Hermes Allen winning over two miles, but this time he realised this horse hasn't got the gears to win a Ballymore. Unfortunately, I don't think has got the class to beat Gidleigh Park either.

Impressed with Jeriko Du Reponet. The change of gear would suggest that there is no need to go up in trip so I backed him for the Supreme.
By:
differentdrum
When: 30 Dec 23 16:57
Should also have mentioned the poor ride James Turner gave Norman Fletcher at Haydock. He asked the horse at just one hurdle and the horse produced a good jump, but for some strange reason he allowed him to fluff every other hurdle which probably cost him in the region of 6-8 lengths, particularly hopless at the third last where he tossed away the three length lead he had gained on the turn. Jock had ridden a few winners early in the season, but now on a losing run.
By:
saxon farm
When: 30 Dec 23 17:11
A good summary dd, thank you.
The AB is now looking a strong race in March….we’ll see!
Not sure the Huntingdon Sidney Banks will suit JOHNNYWHO, 2m5 right handed tight track.  I’d prefer he went to the staying novice hurdle on trials day in January.
By:
differentdrum
When: 30 Dec 23 17:23
I wouldn't want to see him taking on Gidleigh Park. Different level of race, but he had no problem cruising around Taunton. You could argue that was more impressive than Carlisle.

At the start of the season I thought Ballyburn for the Ballymore, and Gidleigh Park for the Albert Bartlett. It seems as if Mullins has fallen in line, I just have to hope Fry does the same.
By:
saxon farm
When: 30 Dec 23 18:06
Fair comment.
No Idea what or if anything WM GE or HD have unwrapped.
And I believe William Bills go Non Runner Money Back from Monday on the festival.
By:
differentdrum
When: 31 Dec 23 16:12
I find it harder to win off William Hill than anyone so I doubt I will be rushing in.

Storm Heart was impressive today, but it just highlights how bookmakers en masse run for cover with their ante-post prices. You now can't beat 8/1 for the Triumph. Yes, he looked straightforward, and picked up very nicely, but hard to believe he beat much, and he was just 1/5 on the flat in France. The time was only slightly quicker than the 89 rated Billy Lee Swagger who carried 6lbs more, and likely raced on worse ground. He should be double figures, minimum.

Getting a bit concerned about Mark Walsh. Has he developed temporary arm-lock. That was another powder puff effort on Thedevilscoachman. A claiming jock would have looked more effective in trying to chase down Sir Gerhard.
By:
paulo47
When: 31 Dec 23 16:20
Absolutely agree re Storm Heart , second rated 65 third 52 on flat , jumping not finished article either though other way round should suit . Did like Monty's Star though .
By:
differentdrum
When: 31 Dec 23 16:37
Not too much outside of Cheltenham tomorrow, and even there for the most part it is small fields.

The opener is very poor for any Grade 1 track. If Libberty Hunter repeats Wincanton, he should have every chance. Matata should give him a nice tow into the race. Not sure why he is currently weak in the market. Inch House has been progressive, but 7lbs is a touch harsh, and heavy ground an unknown. I think Stage Star is the one to beat, but I am always concerned when Hills are much the biggest price. They don't often offer freebies without good reason. The staying handicap looks a match up between Ed Keeper, and Springwell Bay. The 10lb concession sways me in favour of the former, but a little concerned that stable form has dropped off a little. If Springwell Bay wins this off 143 they could be thinking of a tilt at the Stayers? I would. I would slightly prefer Bob Olinger to Marie's Rock, but not sure either is that reliable. I don't often get involved in the junior bumpers, but I didn't think anything jumped out on form, so took the extra places on Authentic Legacy. Proper national hunt pedigree and stable and jock in good form.
By:
differentdrum
When: 31 Dec 23 16:55
Just checked the Stayers market, and Springwell Bay is listed. That seems to suggest someone has already had a sniff. I don't see his profile as that different to Crambo. Anyway, I took the 40/1. It's one of those if he loses tomorrow the bet is likely down the pan, but if he wins he is 20/1, or even shorter. Given that he would be a two-time course winner I can't see another obvious target.
By:
OilyWragg
When: 31 Dec 23 16:57
I like the McConnell horse in the Class 2 Novice at Cheltenham tomorrow, thought he was a bit unlucky in a similar race over shorter last time out, with Bowen losing an iron at a vital stage and just failing by a neck to a horse that then was placed in a Grade 1 (Tolworth, well beaten 3rd but still a good effort in the context of this race). Yes, the Henderson horse could be anything but nothing has come out of the bumper he won at Newcastle to frank the form, so its Innatendue for me with the form already in the book.

I've a fancy for Springwell Bay in the Handicap Hurdle at 2.40, won a Class 3 nicely last time out after a long lay off, up another 6 but shouldn't stop a bold show, his previous race was the Turner at Aintree where Irish Point won, the winner has gone in twice since, the third home won next time up, the 4th home won the next twice, the 5th and 7th also won next time up as did the 6th home (Springwell Bay) who might have finished closer that day but for being hampered and making a slight mistake also. Taken 5.8 and 5.6 and will have some in the place market tomorrow.
By:
differentdrum
When: 31 Dec 23 17:02
Good luck, but I would be wary of any McConnell runner. Stable has been in terrible form for months.
By:
sageform
When: 01 Jan 24 14:30
Nice win by Libberty Hunter. He is looking the horse that hacked up at Chepstow now.
By:
differentdrum
When: 01 Jan 24 17:17
From a viewing point that was probably the most annoying afternoon I can remember. Split screen after split screen. No other sport would tolerate such nonsense.

It just brought home how the sport appears have next to no control over it's own product.

Racing has two dedicated channels, and the highest cost for any stand alone channel. Yet it produces a total shambles. There should be two channels with half the racing on each channel. The greedy racecourses have wrecked the product. It's the same with the fixture list which should be cut in half.

Steve Jones spouting nonsense about the lack of prize money again. I have highlighted several recent instances of very good prize money attracting next to nothing in terms of quality. The problem is not enough good horses and too many options. There are already several handicaps with prizes that exceed Graded races.

Anyone know what the premierisation of Cheltenham meant? A good idea should be simple, and not need any explanation.

Anyway, back to the racing, and another small profit even after including the losing ante-post bet.

I thought Wedge had thrown the race away by sitting still on the run to the last, but the horse has shown a good attitude to run the leader down. These are his conditions, and he didn't seem to have a problem with the track. A wet spring, and he could have a decent mark for the Grand Annual. Again the fast pace should suit. He could end up a 150+ horse. Has been put in joint favourite, but at this stage 12/1 isn't appealing. Not sure Ed Keeper would have won without the mistake. He just looks a galloper, and would have been better suited making the running. Springwell Bay was disappointing. he raced freely, and didn't get home on that surface. He isn't the biggest, so chasing might not be the best idea. Perhaps the Coral Cup would be a likely fit? A couple of bookmakers have priced him up, but 16/1 is again hardly a giveaway when he could be double figures on the day. Authentic Legacy shaped nicely in the bumper under a pretty ordinary ride. Jock seemed to be intent on just tracking his stablemate, got shuffled back, and ended up the widest of all.

Elsewhere, Inch House never jumped or travelled with the same fluency he had done in his two previous wins. I didn't see the head on, but it looked to as if Blackmore came close to making a complete horlicks on Bob Olinger. The head on would be telling, but it seemed that she ended up forcing the gap. Further confirmation of the mess they have made of Marie's Rock. That wasn't the same horse as last year.

I think we got confirmation at Fairyhouse as to why My Trump Card had previously gone the bumper route. Plenty of size, but not much idea about jumping. Obviously, Staffordshire Knot prefers Fairyhouse heavy to Limerick heavy. The favourite a bitter disappointment. I bet a few had chanced that for the Festival Bumper, and would have been desperately trying to cash out. Liam Quinlan joined the long list of  criticised jocks to land a winner, scoring at Tramore.
By:
differentdrum
When: 01 Jan 24 17:21
I should have added that William Hill were spot on in trying to get Stage Star. A woeful performance. He has been taken on before, but this time he just backed out.
By:
LoyalHoncho
When: 01 Jan 24 17:41
Thanks dd - you're analysis always well worth the reading.
By:
1st time poster
When: 01 Jan 24 17:49
jones is an idiot today of all days what supposed intelligent racing journo would stand in chelt paddock on live tv .banging on about prixe money with the size of the fields on offer,absolute moron but only mirrors his race reading and tipping,never known a bloke so confident pre race about whats going to happen and be roughly completly wrong 99% of the time, absolutely convinced himself of the straight fc in inch house/cloudy glen race and stumpstown was 1st he wrote off no chance on current form,MAJ of punters found it rightly a complete puzzle, with inevitable outcome 10 mins later
By:
sageform
When: 01 Jan 24 19:44
Very good dd. Springwell Bay suffers from being trained by one Jonjo and ridden by another although I doubt that he is top class. Butch would be interesting in the Pertemps if he goes there. It is hard to rate the opening novice hurdle but it did not look a good race. Agree with first time poster. It is much easier to get 14 or more runners in a class 5 handicap hurdle than in a £20k race of any sort. There are plenty of bad horses around but not many good ones.
By:
saxon farm
When: 01 Jan 24 20:13
Petit Tonnerre took my eye for a non jigger.
His day will come, when they take the hand brake off….
By:
brandyontherocks
When: 01 Jan 24 21:29
Which "Jones" are you referring too?
By:
saxon farm
When: 01 Jan 24 22:16
sageform
Olly Murphy said Butch might next run in The Rendlesham at Haydock, also Butch will not go anywhere near Cheltenham in March.
Aintree a possibility.
By:
sageform
When: 02 Jan 24 08:53
Thanks Saxon, I certainly wouldn't back anything for the Pertemps before the overnight decs are in. I don't see Butch as a Grade 1 horse though.
By:
differentdrum
When: 02 Jan 24 13:09
It was inevitable that Esprit Du Potier would go up in trip. He jumped better, but more importantly, it enabled him to get on the front end. That said I still don't think he has translated his bumper form, and he could be vulnerable up in class.

Just read a quote from Henderson saying Jeriko Du Reponet wouldn't run at Cheltenham if he couldn't find another race before then. Taken at face value, this would also mean him not running at Aintree. It's laughable, just ridiculous scaremongering. We are supposed to believe that a top trainer can't find a single two-mile race in the next couple of months? He has hardly looked clueless on either start, and it would be a surprise if plenty of other novice entries are not made off the back of just two runs.

Looks like it will be a quiet week with the monsoon type weather continuing to cause disruption.
By:
differentdrum
When: 02 Jan 24 14:33
Had a little look through the Festival NRNB prices, and the only one I was tempted by was Nemean Lion at 25/1 (with a possible boost) in the County. If he goes there I can see him going off 16/1, or even shorter. I think he is a bit better than that Greatwood run. Everything that finished above him has since been raised.

I also cashed out Old Ground for a small loss. I will check future entries, but just assume she is out for the season.
By:
differentdrum
When: 05 Jan 24 11:08
Not been much to get even moderately excited this week with the abandonments, and the surviving meetings being pretty dire. Not shedding too much of a tear for Sandown, it looked a moderate card heading up a very poor Saturday.

Only real interest today is seeing if Industrialist shapes any better in the maiden hurdle. I have taken a chance on the extra places, but if he is ridden in a similar manner to last time he could easily end up being pulled up. Hopefully, they ride him to finish. It looks a modest bumper, but if pushed I would go with Lady Jago, although it is weak in the market. Lady Nell is currently the one for support, but that Lady Rebecca family has not thrown anything of note in recent years.
By:
differentdrum
When: 05 Jan 24 17:10
That's one I won't be following over a cliff. Market told the story - 20/1-50/1. Seemingly, travelling nicely in sixth with a circuit to go, he then lost around six places in 100 yards without even coming under pressure. Any horse who falls into that sort of hole shouldn't be running on that sort of surface. Lady Jago travelled like the best horse, but didn't get close to seeing her race out. Lady Nell looks another ordinary one.

Nice rest tomorrow. With the exception of the clash between Firefox, Ile Atlantique, and Chapeau Du Soleil, the whole weekend is effectively a washout. Of the three I would favour the last named. I think he is more an Albert Bartlett type, but the intermediate on testing ground at Naas might very well seem like three miles. I know it is a Grade 1, but a bit surprised that Firefox has been upped in trip for this sort of test. With eight declared, hopefully, nothing will pull out. They knew the ground they were likely to get.
By:
differentdrum
When: 07 Jan 24 17:31
For purely selfish reasons I was glad to see today's Grade 1 called off. Fortunately, it's not often that I back a horse at 15/2 and it drifts to 18/1. Despite the drift, assuming similar conditions, I will still back it again.

Worth mentioning Lord Of Thunder and Handstands, who both won easily. Probably not Graded class, but progressing nicely.
By:
differentdrum
When: 09 Jan 24 12:02
Joyeuse probably the best of the yesterday's novice winners. JP owns plenty of rubbish, but very few seem to end up with Henderson.

Added a free bet on Johnnywho for the Albert Bartlett on the basis that target has been confirmed. I may not have bothered had Fry done similar with Gidleigh Park.

Also Let It Rain NRNB for Bumper. Given it's Skelton she won't go, but nothing lost if she doesn't. I think she has the best form of anything over here, and I don't think the irish have produced anything in the spectacular bracket so far.
By:
differentdrum
When: 09 Jan 24 17:13
No bet, but disappointed the gamble wasn't landed on G A Henty today. Given the way he jumped every other flight you have to think that the second last bungle had something to do with jockey panic. Hard to believe he would have lost had he maintained that two-length lead at the last.

Looks quite a competitive bumper at Doncaster tomorrow. The Happy Chapati is a fun name, but the three that interested me most were I Play County (one of the 'unknowns' on the original pointers list), Ace Of Spades (half brother to Tahmuras by the sire of Nube Negra), and Windsurfer who also has a decent pedigree and made an encouraging start. At the prices I took the extra places on the last named. Burke an interesting booking.
By:
MJK
When: 09 Jan 24 19:16

Dec 28, 2023 -- 5:40PM, differentdrum wrote:


Very poor stuff outside of Leopardstown tomorrow. That said I have taken extra places on Ballyfort at Kelso. Assuming the hood works it was just too big. He comes out of a better race than this one.My main interest at Leopardstown is Ballyburn. Amazed that he hasn't been put in 1/5. Now that he is running over a trip I will be disappointed if he is beaten again this season. Apples Of Bresil being supported, but the horses he couldn't beat in a bumper were nowhere near as good as Ballyburn. I thought Corbetts Cross was very promising prior to Cheltenham, but since then I am not so sure. I would like to see Flooring Porter bounce back, but there is a chance that Cromwell may have wrecked him for the season. State Man looks the solid option against Impaire Et Passe. I have backed Waterford Whispers in the novices handicap. He looks progressive, and the second didn't let the form down at Limerick. I thought the concluding bumper was too much of a puzzle. The favourite's bumper win didn't look that strong, and Redemption Day returns having looked more speed than stamina. Maybe he can stay on the bridle long enough to see these off? Interesting support (66/1-10/1) for Eastbank Warrior who started favourite, and was leading when he exited in his point. It could be one of those that ends up 20/1 again tomorrow.


Looks like Ballyburn's price for the Supreme has collapsed. Can only be the horses' tendency to pull hard has them thinking about the 2M.

By:
differentdrum
When: 09 Jan 24 19:49
I hadn't even looked. I just assumed he would win the Ballymore and not get beaten again this season. Who has planted the seeds to suggest he needs to go back to the original failed plan? The 'pulling hard' nonsense was always a red herring. It's old news now anyway. He hadn't got the speed to cope with Firefox over two miles. Pedigree suggested what would happen, but Mullins just ploughed ahead, and made a mistake. Now it seems he wants to repeat the trick. He should never have run once over two miles. It should have nothing to do with the usual Mullins pack shuffling exercise. Ballyburn is by far the best novice, and you just run him in the race that suits best, and that's over a staying trip.

I question the whole of what I am doing on here when you get decisions like this that simply make no sense at all. After Leopardstown there was no indication at all that he would be dropping back in trip, and there shouldn't have been. There has to be more to this than simply the lack of a 2m4f race at the Dublin Festival. There must be a 2m4f race he can run in before Cheltenham?
By:
MJK
When: 09 Jan 24 21:02
I wouldn't be surprised if he still ran in the staying race and Mullins saying it was always the plan. I'm not sure how much money would've caused the drop in price, remembering the non runner no bet get out clause and some punters feeling they will cover themselves by backing the horse for both races. Of course the suspicion in cases like this is that connections have caused the 'gamble' and decided this is the race. Interesting if someone asks Mullins the question on Racing TV at Naas on Friday.
By:
differentdrum
When: 10 Jan 24 10:50
I hope you are right, not just for my sake. There must be others who have drawn similar, logical conclusions. Something must have sparked off yesterday's illogical movement, and it would be interesting to know what it was. If anyone knows please flag it up.

I very rarely read his stuff, but I read some column filling nonsense from Kevin Blake yesterday suggesting it would improve the Festival by making the Ballymore a handicap? Just bonkers. Writing for writing's sake. The problem is not so much the number of races, it's the trainers, and to a certain degree the media, many of whom appear clueless. All this moving between races appears often to be little more than an exercise to make sure as much of the ante-post money as possible stays in the satchels. Most targets should be obvious from the start of the season. I can't believe that trainers are so stupid that they don't know that. Punters don't want to be backing horses in two or three races, particularly when there should only be one target. The only thing that might alter the original opinion would be the ground, and that should only be a factor in the final week or so. None of that thinking should apply to Ballyburn who should only need the one Cheltenham entry.
By:
ribero1
When: 10 Jan 24 11:40
DD,don't shoot the messenger! but re Let it Rain,owner good friend,just text me to ask where we stay for Cheltenham as that's where she's running.
By:
differentdrum
When: 10 Jan 24 11:41
I see the Sun 'covered the story', but typically did nothing to uncover what had prompted the gamble. You would think the stable was on a different planet.
By:
differentdrum
When: 10 Jan 24 12:20
ribero,

Right now, given the above nonsense, I need all the positives I can get. It's nice to have at least one owner on the same page. She thoroughly deserves to take her chance, and irrespective of the result - and let's hope it's a win - your friend has a very nice prospect going forward.
By:
ribero1
When: 10 Jan 24 12:32
Indeed,it's his first horse too,he'll obviously be led by Skelton  but fancies trying the flat at some stage with her but as we know anything can happen.
By:
sageform
When: 10 Jan 24 12:59
Personal Ambition was impressive there. Giving 7lb and laughed at them.
By:
differentdrum
When: 10 Jan 24 16:03
Of the three I mentioned in the bumper I Play County was the only one ridden to get seriously involved. Both Windsurfer (ten wide) and Ace Of Spades were effectively beaten after a 100 yards. It just emphasises how difficult it is to get a big priced bumper winner. Still Windsurfer who shapes like a stayer did enough to land the extra place bet, and Ace Of Spades was a major eyecatcher finishing fifth without ever being put in the race. Not sure why anyone would want to back David Maxwell in an 18 runner race.
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