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Novice Hurdles/Bumpers 23/24
Novice Hurdles/Bumpers 23/24
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Just a general point re Mullins, never seen so many of his novices make so many mistakes as a lot of them have done so far this season. Adding to how long it's taken a lot of his horses to get match fit I can only assume with practice most of his novices will keep improving from Cheltenham onwards.
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Nice big priced third dd.
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Yes, he was as big as 150/1 last night. That said with a faster pace, and a bit more belief from the jock, he might have gone very close to winning. The favourite yet another disappointment for Cromwell.
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Maughreen now an absolutely crazy price for the Festival Bumper. I was actually more impressed when Femme Magnifique beat Amanha. That was on much quicker ground. Both Let It Rain and Avakate have both been just as impressive against much stronger opposition. Maughreen is a full sister to Blow Your Wad who was found wanting when stepped up to Graded company.
Not great quality, but the two maidens probably of most interest at Chepstow. I think Broughshane might be one of those horses who looks the part, but is a touch soft. My guess would be he needs to do most of his running on the bridle. The Curtis stable has struggled for winners over several seasons, but at the moment they are not running too badly. If House Of Stories backs up I would expect him to turn over the favourite. He has a nice bit of scope, and his pedigree suggests he should handle the quicker ground. Ilfu Un Mome was a wide margin point winner, but was being closed down when the second made an absolute horlicks of the last. A fine example of how not to see a stride. He remains in the same ownership, similarly to Scandisk Park who started favourite for a Haydock bumper, and blew out completely. Isocrate looks the interesting one. Form figures don't look great, but his fifth came in the bumper where Gidleigh Park ran away from The Jukebox Man. As I write he is weak in the market. |
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maughreen wherever it goes ,the connections the 1 win from 1 and the faugheen factor will ensure its shorter than it perhaps should be ,
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Another one bites the dust with Flooring Porter. I don't know who has lost their way the most, the horse or the trainer. Seems a total nonsense that he has waved a white flag on the chasing career after he ran the horse the wrong way round, then ran him on ground likely too soft with the jock steering him on likely the worse ground. It seems he has taken it on himself to make a mess of all the decent horses in the yard.
Then we have Iroko back from the dead, but not being entered in the Brown Advisory. So he has more chance of winning an Arkle than a Brown Advisory? The main point though is how this has happened with not a dickie bird from connections. Just typical of them. |
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whats up wi flooring porter dd?
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differentdrum 16 Jan 24 14:46
Another one bites the dust with Flooring Porter. I don't know who has lost their way the most, the horse or the trainer. Dropping Letsbeclearaboutit back to two miles supports this IMO, and then to hold it up thus not exploiting his fencing and thinking it would have the pace over that trip confirms it  |
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Very odd not entering Flooring Porter.
I can understand the ride he was given at Christmas as he does need a rail, but he was massively inconvenienced running on the slop. Was hoping for a big price on the day. |
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It was only after I wrote the above that I found out he was in the National Hunt Chase. Does anything about the way he finishes off his races suggest he wants 3 miles plus?
The trainer has been quoted in the last few days, and gave no indication at all that this was how the entries would go. Clearly he must have known at that late stage. Iroko though is even more strange. How can a horse be out for the season, then he isn't without any comment at all? Other than Marine Nationale I don't think the novices are strong so if he were back to his best he would have a decent chance in the Turners, but you couldn't back him without knowing the situation. Of the absentees Klassical Dream is the one I am most disappointed about. I think he would have had an excellent chance in the Brown Advisory. He was their number one ahead of the current favourite. |
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Just noticed that too, dd. Wouldn't have him down as a 4-miler.
Had a few pennies on Montys Star at 40s, which is my only bet in the Brown Advisory. Galopin at 3s, Hermes Allen for the Turners (nrnb), Theleme at 20s, Corach Rambler (GC) and Mahler Mission (GC) are my antepost bets so far. Won't be having many more as slowly going off antepost betting. |
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dont you have to have run in even won beyond 3 miles in a chase to qualify to run in 3 mile 6 fur national hunt chase these day ?
long list of qualifying restrictions these days isnt there resulting in single fgigure fields |
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His debut was a 3m so he will qualify.
Too many races result in small fields and short price favs. |
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ok cheers
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Why has Il Est Francais been given an entry, and why are some bookmakers shortening him up?
That question, and the one about Iroko should have been answered by now, but nothing. What are these journalists paid for? You would think the people they need to contact are on another planet. |
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So true.
It can not be hard to contact a trainer who has said a certain horse is out for the seaon/definitely not running at Cheltenham, and ask them why it is entered. |
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The entry system does have to be part of the problem. if you are not entered you can't run (unless there is an expensive loophole allowing last minute supplementary entries) so I can well understand that some horses that are not likely to run are entered in case circumstances change. What is not satisfactory is trainers and/or owners saying they are not going to run in order to influence the betting markets but it is very hard to prove. I imagine that a lot of trainers when contacted by a reporter will say don't know or no comment so nothing appears in print. With multiple entries, ante post is a minefield and I would not go near the Cheltenham or Aintree novice races from now until the overnight stage.
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Thankfully, this is 2024, not 1824. Yes, connections don't have to tell the public anything, but we really should have moved on from that sort of thinking. There is no balance to the reporting of JP's interests. All we hear is the positive stuff, nothing about him caring two hoots about punters.
Iroko was ruled out for the season. You can't get much more extreme than suddenly finding him amongst the entries. At the very least the likes of Frank Berry should wake up and appreciate that sort of situation requires an explanation. It shouldn't need journalists to be knocking on his door. |
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dd
A bone for you to chew on! Iroko 'back in work' and given Cheltenham Festival novice chase entries after making quicker recovery than expected Iroko and Aidan Kelly won the Martin Pipe Iroko: Cheltenham Festival winner last season Credit: John Grossick Racing Last season's Martin Pipe winner Iroko could yet make it to the Cheltenham Festival, with joint-trainer Oliver Greenall revealing the six-year-old had recovered quicker than expected from a foot injury previously thought to have ruled him out for the season. Iroko gave Greenall and his training partner Josh Guerriero the highest-profile win of their careers with a length-and-a-half success in the conditional jockeys' handicap hurdle named after the legendary trainer at last year's festival, and then finished third in Grade 1 company at Aintree. He started this season with an authoritative three-and-a-quarter-length success at Warwick on his chasing debut, after which he was cut to 10-1 for the Turners and Brown Advisory at this year's meeting. However, it was announced in November an injury to the sole of his foot had ruled him out for the season. On Tuesday he was a surprise entry for the Arkle, for which he is a best-priced 25-1, and Turners, for which he is a 16-1 chance. Speaking to the Racing Post on Wednesday while on holiday, Greenall said that while the entry was tentative the exciting chaser was back in work. Joint-trainer Oliver Greenall was full of praise for Whodini Oliver Greenall: joint-trainer of Iroko Credit: John Grossick (racingpost.com/photos) "He seems to be doing well, better than expected," he explained. "He's back in work and we'll see how we go, it's still not a definite we'll get to Cheltenham but we put him in just in case. If he does get there he'll probably have to go straight to Cheltenham, we can't get a run into him as there aren't many suitable races. "We might just have to give him a good racecourse gallop and go straight there. But we're just playing it by ear." He is JP McManus's only entry in the Arkle on day one over two miles, while the owner also has 12-1 shot Fact To File and 14-1 chance Corbetts Cross in the Turners on day three over two and a half miles. Fact To File and Corbetts Cross are a shorter price in ante-post lists for the Brown Advisory on day two. Iroko won over two miles and four and a half furlongs at last year's festival before stepping up in trip at Aintree and had been thought of as a Brown Advisory contender by bookmakers after his Warwick win, but Greenall said at the time he would look to keep the him to two and a half miles this season and William Hill, who offer the non-runner, no bet guarantee, make him just a 6-1 shot for the Turners in March. |
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Thanks saxon,
If he were 16/1 NRNB I might be interested, but 6/1 NRNB is not a very big bone for a horse who would be having just his second run over fences off the back of an interrupted preparation. |
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trainers should speak less and think about what they say
not certain to be ready for chelt but then he could be ready for a run beforehand but there isnt a suitable race not that he wouldnt have a chancer of making it, which means he could be ready for a run a month before but not certain to be ready for chelt best just to ignore everything they say |
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It would have been useful if the journalist had also asked Greenall about White Rhino who is second favourite in some Pertemps lists despite never having run in a qualifier. They have had plenty of opportunities to get him qualified so I assume something has gone amiss since his last run.
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Apologies, but just to return to Ballyburn and Gidleigh Park. It's no secret, but I need these two to win the Ballymore and Albert Bartlett for my ante-post list to be a success.
First a little bit of good news, Dineen put up Gidleigh Park for the Ballymore and it hasn't moved. I hope that is an indication that at least the Ballymore hasn't been already decided as the target. Not so good about Ballyburn. I have lost track of the number of bookmaker sponsored pundits who keep putting him up for the Supreme, all on the basis of nothing more than pack shuffling. For me that is a shocking indictment that any trainer, let alone one considered as the best, is more bothered about a race rather than any preference of a horse. He must be able to see that the horse isn't a two-miler. This is how I look at what would be the best option for the horse in respect of the DRF:- (1) Skip it, and find a 2m4f option. (2) 2m6f (3) 2m The market would suggest the trainer views those options in reverse order, trying to force a square peg into a round hole just to win what looks a weak Grade 1. Of course a combination of class and weakness of opposition might mean he gets away with it, but chances are the trainer will ignore that thought, and just steam ahead to the Supreme. If that was the case I wouldn't contemplate backing him for that race. If he does end up in the Supreme it would be a fantastic result for the bookmakers before the meeting even starts. |
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brocklebank write up in todays sportinlife,says the horse will stay 3 miles ,will run/win the 2 m 6 f race at short odds at DRF ,then run in ballymore, keep the faith
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for those not yet involved as mullins is all about collecting chelt pots, so he must think he has the ballymore covered if prepared to run ballyburn in supreme,
but is that by way of volume of numbers or he thinks one other than ballyburn will be his no 1 for ballymore |
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I did read that, but he is 10/1 for 2m6f and 5/4 for the 2m. That tells the story. I don't think Mullins has said anything, but clearly people already know his thinking.
If he goes Supreme, doesn't jump quick enough, and doesn't have the basic pace to be effective, nobody will say a dickie bird when for me it would be the training ****-up of the Festival. I am pretty much resigned to my fate. It wouldn't be so bad if I felt I could get one out of the two right. |
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Unbeaten A Dream To Share set to return to bumpers at Leopardstown with hurdling plans shelved
Tullyhill (right) was second behind A Dream To Share in a Grade 1 bumper at Punchestown last season A Dream To Share: set to return in a bumper at the Dublin Racing Festival Credit: CAROLINE NORRIS A Dream To Share's hurdling career has been put on hold as connections will aim the Champion Bumper hero at the Goffs Future Stars INH Flat Race at next month's Dublin Racing Festival at Leopardstown. The John and Thomas Kiely-trained gelding enjoyed a stellar campaign in bumpers last season when reeling off five successive victories, which included decisive wins at Grade 1 level at the Cheltenham and Punchestown festivals. Connections had intended on a novice hurdle campaign this season and he was entered in a maiden hurdle at Punchestown in October, but a setback ruled him out until the new year. Having missed schooling due to the delay in preparation A Dream To Share will be kept to bumpers for the time being and will bid for successive victories in the Grade 2 event on February 3. Frank Berry, racing manager to owner JP McManus, said: "The plan is go for the bumper at the Dublin Racing Festival. With the hold up, he hasn't got to school as much we'd have liked. "It's just been a bit of a delay with him but if all goes well he'll go to Leopardstown." A Dream To Share: last season's Champion Bumper winner raced just once from June to March A Dream To Share: gave teenage jockey John Gleeson a memorable big-race triumph in the Champion Bumper Credit: John Grossick Although A Dream To Share is one of the leading contenders for the Supreme Novices' Hurdle, it is unclear whether we will see the prolific bumper performer over hurdles this season given the proximity to the the spring festivals. "We'll get him started back anyway but it's probably getting a bit late to go over hurdles this season," said Berry. "It will be great to see him out again and we're looking forward to it. He's in great form and John is very happy with him." A Dream To Share emerged as one of the most exciting horses in training last season and his unbeaten run began at Tipperary in May 2022. It became apparent that he was a special prospect when he comfortably defeated Fact To File and subsequent Grade 1 winner Feronily at the Dublin Racing Festival. He again gave teenage jockey John Gleeson a memorable big-race triumph when confirming placings with Fact To File at Cheltenham last March, before his magnificent campaign was crowned at Punchestown. |
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As I ignore flat breds that was one I dodged. The longer it went the more unlikely it was going to happen.
If he wins on reappearance then six bumper wins is probably going to be unique. It's a bit of a surprise they haven't tried to win a second Festival Bumper. Why would you waste the novice hurdle status at this late stage? |
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dd
Here are the race conditions for the Cheltenham Bumper, which explains why A Dream To Share is ineligible to defend the title. RACE CONDITIONS £80,000 guaranteed For four, five and six yrs old only, which have not run under any recognised Rules of Racing, except National Hunt Flat races, Irish National Hunt Flat races or French AQPS Flat races. Horses are not to have run in more than three previous races, or four races if the fourth run was in a Pattern or Listed Race during the current season and, prior to Closing, must have been placed first, second, third or fourth in a race Weights 4yo 10st10lb; 5&6yo 11st6lb Allowances mares 7lb |
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Thanks, is there no restriction in Ireland on the number of bumper runs? If not, he could presumably, go on to Punchestown.
I had thought there was a move to stop 6yo's running in the Festival Bumper, but I must have imagined it. |
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I posted it differentdrum , think it might be from 2025 , will have a look tomorrow .
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No 6 year olds any more.
It is impossible to 2nd guess Mullins so I never try. But he will run his best novice in the race he thinks he has the best chance of winning. If he he does aim Ballyburn (if that is his best novice) at the Supreme that is because that is his best chance. He isn't often wrong. |
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^
6 year olds ARE allowed this year. |
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6-year-olds no longer permitted to run in National Hunt Flat races after the final day of the Jump season (April 2023).
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You're correct
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brandy,
I am not arguing with what you are saying. Whatever his record is (and I think if you sat down and examined it you would find plenty of losers in the novice races) I think it is a crackpot idea for any trainer to run any horse in what he perceives to be an easier race rather than the race that suits the horse best. That's the point I have been trying to make. Ballyburn wants 2m4f+ and will win over that trip so I don't see any point running him anywhere else. If you were being ultra cautious you could possibly run him in the Albert Bartlett, certainly not the Supreme. I almost get the idea that he wants to revert to two miles to somehow prove he didn't make an error in running the horse over two miles in the first place. Had he kicked off over the right trip we would surely not have had all this nonsense. Nonsense that only benefits the bookmakers. |
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dd I agree with you and if I owned Ballyburn I would opt for the 2.5 miles but Willie Mullins has a hand of 5 or more horses that could win or be placed in the Cheltenham novices and he will presumably be trying to maximise the number of wins and places he can get from those. If all 5 of his best horses were 2.5 milers should he run them all in the Baring Bingham or move the fastest one to the Supreme and the best stayer to the 3 mile novice? There is also (presumably) an owners pecking order so if the top dogs are Munir and Souede then will they decide first where to run their best one and then the other owners have to move? I don't know how it works but when you have a lot of fancied horses in one yard, this is what you are up against. Readin Tommy Wrong is currently top rated of the Mullins novices on RPR so do use that as a criterion and put him in the Baring Bigham and then the next best in the Supreme?
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Mullins has plenty of novices, but other than Ballyburn, I don't think he has any other obvious winner, and that's wherever he places them. So why would you jeopardise your main/only winning chance by shunting him somewhere that does that horse no favours whatsoever? Whatever the figures show I think he is a stone better horse than Readin Tommy Wrong. If I felt we were talking about the odd pound I wouldn't be arguing the case so strongly. Had he started out over the intermediate trip I think that would already have been clear because it would have been him winning the Grade 1 race. The fact that he didn't was just down to Mullins making a mountain of nothing in respect of his perceived inability to settle. That looks a total smokescreen. He has had five races and finished every one of them off strongly. What more evidence does he need to appreciate that the futher he goes, the better he goes? It's no surprise, it just follows his pedigree.
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Interesting Paul Townend saying they've no idea what happened to Daddy Long Legs last time but they're hoping the horse they think it is turns up at Leopardstown.
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I thought that was strange given that currently Ballyburn is 5/4, and Daddy Long Legs is 12/1. Unfortunately, not so strange that no journalist pressed him on that point. The best we get is a few crumbs.
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