There is currently 1 person viewing this thread.
These 382 comments are related to the topic:
The Management (meaningless) Stat Of The Day©
The Management (meaningless) Stat Of The Day©
sort by:
Show
per page
Replies: 382
|
By:
Maybe not thought I saw a goal maybe was hallucinating.
|
|
By:
 |
|
By:
Only 3 more to go. Come on
 |
|
By:
I can’t see it not with a minute to go….
|
|
By:
Any more TM ? You owe us one ffs…..
|
|
By:
sides averaging 1.45 and 1.25 G scored-comes out at 1.81 G
Bayern v Muchengladrags 2.95 and 1.75 - comes out at 5.16 not an exact science of course. |
|
By:
He’s in the pub probably thinking see that b@stard aceform…..
|
|
By:
you hav to put the betfair forum curse into the mix tho ........ cos any bet ya put up is liable to failure.......come in acey who seems to be excelling at the minute at anuthas failure
 |
|
By:
I honestly thought he was a judge the way he lectures…..
Dreadful opinion…..imo…. |
|
By:
even harder than the horses to get right - they scored afta 7 mins -disallowed but cuda changed whole course of game if it stood - similarly a team is battering the otha then a mad sending off or equivalent changes whole game
Thank fcuk im recreational these days re footy cos to get a 4-5 team acc up you deffo need the stars to align |
|
By:
The problem with football today is there's so many teams what play like Spain did when they won world cup which results in so many games with only a couple of shots on target first half(didn't watch this game so don't know how they played).
Don't bet much footy these days but the televised games I've watched this season I would of been miles in front betting 0-0 first half  |
|
By:
I posted on a topic a few years ago, which the OP disagreed with,that data is random and therefore unreliable.
QED FWIW - it follows that this randomness affects the outcomes of Poisson. |
|
By:
formoftheace17 Feb 23 21:29Joined: 17 Apr 12 | Topic/replies: 7,153 | Blogger: formoftheace's blog
He’s in the pub probably thinking see that b@stard aceform….. I was at the pub - but don't flatter yourself that I ever think about you! I've put up one bet (at 2/1) with my reasons and it's bombed out (admittedly pretty badly). I can live with that. Rigsby - I can't believe I would ever make a sweeping or stand-alone statement about data, statistics or randomness. Everything has a price is my mantra. Specifically regarding football I (generally) bet on outcomes that are unlikely to happen (odds against and often long odds against) in minor/obscure leagues because I believe that is where the errors/value lie - The Stat of The Day© was a light-hearted approach and any such thread (for the prices/liquidity to be credible) would unfortunately have to focus on the mainstream where pricing errors are far fewer. Aside from the issues of liquidity and credibility of prices, sticking up long-shots at big prices (even if they pay over time) is not really a viable approach on this forum - although to his credit George B does seem to repeatedly manage it! Thanks for the kind/supportive replies folks - and to the people that only felt brave enough to comment negatively after it was all but clear the bet was down, well played! I'll stick another bet up later (quite possibly same market and same league  ) but I'm currently struggling to find enough data that I can manipulate to support it! |
|
By:
I have villa v ars game at 2.52 Goals on average goals scored, and 2.8 on home and away team's goals.
around evens on the machine so no steal there. |
|
By:
That's the problem with the EPL/mainstream leagues leif - if you run your numbers (especially if you use the same modelling as everybody else) the price will always pretty much reflect your conclusions - and you end up doing a Kevin Pullein (No Bet)!
I don't have an issue with "No Bet" conclusions - most markets are "correct", so at least it more or less confirms that what you are doing is also generally correct! |
|
By:
The Management (meaningless) Stat Of The Day© today = Bochum home games (League) have produced an average of 3.78 goals per game & Freiburg away games (League) have produced an average of 3.70 goals per game.
Over 3.50 goals for todays match (Bochum at home to Freiburg) is currently trading at about 3.85 (11/4+) on here. The odds certainly reflect that (just like last nights Bundesliga game!) there might not be any of those pivotal or defining moments that are sometimes required to kick a game into life (the spread boys are only calling for 2.60 goals!) - but with Freiburg away games managing to hit +3.50 goals in 7 of their 10 away games so far this year, I think laying Under 3.50 at 1.35 is a very fair bet at the price. GL |
|
By:
I've that one around 2.16 goals and more interested in the Bayern game with 1.44 over 2.5 G a decent bet IMO.
GL TM |
|
By:
Thanks for the input - all fair comments leif.
Like most of my football bets, I don't really expect it to cop! - I merely like the price. It certainly looks (and is priced) like one of those cagey games where Bochum would be very happy with 0:0 or sneaking a late 1:0 win but I feel with something/anything happening (preferably early doors!), it could spark into life as many of those types of games in this league can do. Agree about Bayern away versus the Gladrags! - On paper, it could be the game of the season for goals - but as I wrote on another thread a few weeks ago (after week 17 of the Bundesliga), despite all the 6,7 & 8 goal games, at that time Bayern were actually still under 2.50 in 8 of their first 17 games! |
|
By:
Gladrags averaging 2 goals a game at home - swaying my idea of a decent net goals tally but then again it's a funny ol' game
 |
|
By:
I don't know if Mark Twain used to bet on German football but if he did he may well have come to the conclusion lies, damn lies and statistics.
|
|
By:
swifty
- I do love the Twainster!But surely more appropriate for the forum was his: "Out of all the things I have lost, I miss my mind the most". |
|
By:
Every blind one…..
Good luck with the |
|
By:
TM, very fitting indeed for this place, not a sane one amongst us!
|
|
By:
Good luck with dart…..
|
|
By:
For the dog-lovers & people doubters:
"The more I come to learn about people, the more I like my dog" And: "Heaven goes by favour, for if it were a meritocracy, you would stay out and your dog would get in" I once gave my d1ck of a dirctor at the time the old line: "If you think you can, you can. If you think you can't, you're probably right". Big mistake, he had never heard it before and proceeded to use use it on every day for about 2 years like he had thought of it himself! |
|
By:
Just for you fartyface, maybe worth you taking note:
"Tell the truth, It saves you having to remember anything" - most apt imv |
|
By:
Strange overs imo…..
More meaningful games in the premier League and Scottish premier leagues….it’s obvious Celtic and Rangers will both score 4 today…imo….title in the sights You missed a good opportunity Villa arsenal…. |
|
By:
"Never argue with stupid people, they will drag you down to their level and then beat you with experience."
What time does the Villa game kick-off iyo?  |
|
By:
Just a thought…..you obviously missed a chance….
I thought a player like yourself would have noticed…… |
|
By:
I will leave the blindingly obvious - that is priced accordingly, to "players" like you imv
|
|
By:
"Never argue with stupid people, they will drag you down to their level and then beat you with experience."
|
|
By:
Just a thought…..you obviously missed a chance….
I thought a player like yourself would have noticed… Flagged up at midday TBF |
|
By:
Each to their own ….no harm intended……
Good luck on today’s opinion…….you’ll need it…..imo…. |
|
By:
Each to their own ….no harm intended……
Good luck on today’s opinion…….you’ll need it…..imo…. Done and dusted [55 mins] despite an eight minute red card. How do ya like them apples |
|
By:
formoftheace is SEETHING
|
|
By:
Me….no..every blind one
Well done….it happens…. Lady L is good to us all now and again…… |
|
By:
you sound really clever with all that cryptic writing, well done.
|
|
By:
Oops…..
|
|
By:
I wouldn’t say clever as such but life has served me well…..I did hold down a responsible job without incident for 33 years which ain’t too bad….
I was respected by all in my work…..it’s not all about social media warriors….. |
|
By:
Any more today TM….understandable if not…..
|