It's not a great bet because there is no evidence of fraud whatsoever. Stuff you think it a 'smoking gun' is incredibly flimsy stuff that gets kicked out of court at the first stage, because it actually is a crime to lie under oath, as opposed to in what is basically a press conference at a hotel. Sworn affidavits mean nothing. Giuliani himself said it wasn't a fraud case. They're all grifters and you're falling for it hook, line and sinker.

Trump is 1-38 in court cases post-election. He's approved the transition, because he knows it's over. 'The Kraken' is a rehash of numerous debunked conspiracy theories and will likely never make it to a court.

The statistical analysis you linked is nothing of the sort. It's just a load of conjecture based mostly off an outlier poll and, comically, who people thought their neighbour was voting for!

Nonetheless, statistical analysis of this election is deeply flawed because you aren't comparing like with like because there has never been a candidate that was as hated as Trump.

Actually the Trump legal team have only filed a handful of lawsuits....3 at the last count.

The rest are from random members of the public.

From Monday things will ramp up with Georgia/ Sidney Powell being the most eagerly awaited...talk is cheap as they say and she’s talked a lot...personally would be amazed if we get something in Georgia next week because that particular case should really take 6 months to a year to put together and they’re trying to do it on very short notice.

Nevada doesn’t get a mention but is interesting. Well I found it so when looking at today. 160k votes tossed out from local elections in Clark County due to clear evidence of fraud but deemed acceptable for use in the main election.

Not sure how that works but there you go.

Newmarket-spurs
27 Nov 20 14:07
Joined: 26 Jun 12 | Topic/replies: 202 | Blogger: Newmarket-spurs's blog
https://thefederalist.com/2020/11/13/5-historical-trends-that-show-its-utterly-shocking-if-trump-lost-in-2020/

Most of us understand trends and statistics.

got a pronoun where there shouldn't be one fella

or....maybe you're a great fisherman. you can be that thick surely?

160k votes tossed out from local elections in Clark County due to clear evidence of fraud

ELG, you're a highly respected reader of racing and particularly international racing, but the above is just pure fantasy garbage. its a recount of 153k votes cos there were issues with 139 votes and given the margin of victory, their could be a recount.

to say 153k votes have been thrown out is making you look as stupid as some of the hicks on here

ELG you do yourself no favours spouting this nonsense. Get a grip you still have credibility for your footie/horse knowledge; don't throw it away.

Betfair has updated its guess-the-settlement-date statement to be "probably" 14 December (when the elctoral college does its stuff).

https://betting.betfair.com/politics/us-politics/us-election-betfair-market-settlement-latest-051120-204.html

Update on settlement of the US election markets on the Betfair Exchange (dated Friday, 27th November, [17:00])

We have not settled certain markets on the Betfair Exchange relating to the U.S. election because of the uncertainty about the outcome of the results caused by ongoing recounts and potential legal challenges.

Given our responsibility to both backers and layers to ensure that the markets are settled correctly and given the unprecedented amount of money that has been traded on these markets, we have sought advice from leading U.S. lawyers to determine the appropriate time to settle the markets.

We currently anticipate that we will wait until the outcome of the Electoral College votes on 14 December 2020 is known before we settle the markets. This, of course, assumes that there is no conclusive outcome before this date.

The Exchange was briefly suspended at [17:00] this afternoon (Nov 27) to clear unmatched bets. It has now reopened for customers to trade their positions.

Told you ... Dec 14th

Makes perfect sense.

punts • November 27, 2020 7:47 PM GMT
Told you ... Dec 14th

Makes perfect sense.

How does it make sense when that's not what the rules say?

If Betfair "have changed the rules completely" then that will be a matter for the courts. Do you think the person who placed £1m on Biden is going to say "ah, fair enough" even though he's already won according to the rules when he struck the bet?

You cannot change the rules of a betting market once it has started. Projected winner in US election parlance is well understood to mean by the media networks and Betfair have a precedent for this as they've settled on these in the past. Any lawyer worth their salt would be able to argue this.

@RothmanMike -- "So how many High Street bookmakers or their on-line associates, have paid out on this election so far."

All of them, so far as I know. At least, all my bets have been paid (four books) and I've not heard of any still waiting, except in the minor markets.

Nobody loses on here

oh dear

sparrow: Doesn't matter who wins what. Trump can still prevail through other means.  He has until Dec 14th

correlation between long term p&l and p&l on these markets post 3 nov would make interesting reading imo

people betting after the result. ffs.

Trump is going to Georgia next week...

Should be interesting.

https://edition.cnn.com/videos/politics/2020/11/26/trump-thanksgiving-inauguration-biden-question-vpx.cnn

  .... You have to laugh.

Andrew: you're not President of the United States.

He is going to pressure lawmakers to not certify or send no electors.

This is his plan...