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Will be plenty of decent money for this one today.
Done their conkers on it last time but compensation awaits here. Evans does well at this track plus the horse has not got an awful lot to beat.
As I said take the 7/4 as it may well go off even money.
BOND ANGEL 13.45 CHEPSTOW.....GL.
Done their conkers on it last time but compensation awaits here. Evans does well at this track plus the horse has not got an awful lot to beat.
As I said take the 7/4 as it may well go off even money.
BOND ANGEL 13.45 CHEPSTOW.....GL.
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1 winner from last 18 paul...you da man.
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paul the b with the fav vs burkey with the 2nd fav, we really need an advice from domino and a lay from AIS in the race before making a final decision on what to do, who would have thought forum kudos would revolve around a class 6 handicap at mighty Chepstow...!
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clash of the titans.
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biggy = 10/11
Swedy = 5/2 paulie = 7/2 domi = 16/1 none of above = 10/1 |
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wot bout stewy b and big daddy
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If they join, a new market can be formed. But biggy's obv locked odds-on
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https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Y5qyNF-MLaQ
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A word of warning for anyone of slightly unbalanced sanity that reads Pauls post and backs it with hard earned.
I'm not having a pop at Paul personally, but his overall success record is quite poor, although i do remember he tipped up a 10/1 winner a few years back. If the tip wins, he hangs around for the plaudits, if not, he disappears for a while without making a comment. I'm not going to disect this race form-wise, but there are a few factors to consider. It's a 5 raced, 3 year old maiden rated 46, quite possibly the lowest rated horse running today, or even this week. Paul stated trainer Evans does well at Chepstow, yet his winning strike rate there is only 11%. If you had backed every one of his runners at Chepstow to an even £1, you would be -£38 in the last 3 years. Evans winning strike rate overall for last 14 days is 2/31 ....... 6% Jockey is fine, although out of sorts at the moment. The filly has improved in last two runs, but LTO was on soft, today it's good. Her race LTO was for horses rated 0-55, today it's 0-60. Not much difference, but higher nevertheless. If this goes off even money, i will eat my socks. I concur it's a poor field, but the filly is poor. Would i lay it ? I would need to review the form first, but i definitely wouldn't back it. I'm not suggesting it won't win, but there are much better 7/4 chances running today and it's actually a poor selection to post. If i had to pick a winner (difficult in this race) i would rather be on Zapataedo EW @ 5/1 Good luck (you may need it)  |
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Zapataedo is actually 10.5 on here, bigger than i thought
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mart has asked me to put a grand on for him as he is busy collecting yesterdays wedge , he said can he have evens as the short change from the 10/11 is rather annoying and would spoil the outline in his holiday shorts pockets ,
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It's the penultimate run that gives her strong claims here imo, which came on a decent surface and was in a slightly higher grade than today's, when she was keen and did plenty in front yet ran all the way to the line against a couple of males (one rated 67 who was running in a 0-65 + 2) and another who was heavily backed from the Moore yard with Kirby up.
What worries me slightly about her chance today is that having been off for over 400 days, she's now having a third run in little over a fortnight. I'd say the danger imo could be Nyala at around 7-1, who would have finished closer last time at Nottingham but for getting mullered inside the final furlong. She's a keen-goer so the hood may help. |
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I know there is a winner in every race and a 5/1 shot in a seller pays the same as a 5/1 shot in a Group 1 but why wouldn’t anybody look at a race like this for a bet?
The horses are unreliable, the jockeys even more so (whether by accident or design) and you coukd run the race 10 times and get a different result. It’s the equine equivalent of an 8 runner A8 greyhound race.  |
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I would always be weary of backing a horse from a gambling stable, the time after the money was down and it went west.
I know for a fact, that connections will know the horses price will be considerably shorter than it was the time before, and therefore it is less beneficial to try and get your money back and make a profit from betting it, by backing it the next time it runs. Often connections will in fact want the horse to be beaten and therefore make it look like the gamble was just a fair run to the best of it's ability and get it beat a couple of times before going for it again at a decent price. The good run also came racing handy on soft ground and staying on, I would not be surprised if on faster ground the horse (without the aid of 5lb off it's back this time) who is 5lb worse off this time, is dropped in and made to look one paced, maybe plugging on into 3rd or 4th, but if genuinely connections bet this horse at 5/1 or 4/1 last time when returning at 3s, it is highly unlikely they will be going on a recovery mission at 7/4 or the 15/8 it has drifted to this morning. I would be with Zapateado each way myself. Struggling off higher marks than this in handicaps of 0-70 and 0-65, it's last run in a 0-60 saw it split two horses who subsequently won 2 races each and are now rated in the high 60s and low 70s. Raised to 63, another solid run came over course and distance on faster ground, where it chased home Ideal Candy who has not been out of the first three since, and the 5th home Harbour Approach was a solid 2nd next time, whilst the 4th The Throstles is a 2 times winner since. Zapateado ran in a seller last time but was outclassed by a useful sort for the grade but showed more under the handling of Jamie Spencer having been apprentice ridden in 4 previous starts. With the grip lessened by the handicapper, the horse is back into 0-60 company for the first time since it's second to the progressive Midnight Blue, with the also progressive On A May Day and Noteworthy in behind her. Her course and distance effort off 63 a few runs ago in a 0-65 classified (a race limited to horses rated 65 and under who have won a maximum of 1 race) and that rates well in the context of this race, so a return to the course and distance on favoured fast ground with the eye catching booking of Luke Morris on board, suggests there could be value to be had and around the 8/1 mark this morning I would prefer to be with this each way. I would be tempted to lay the favourite, expecting connections to give it a run today. |
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insightful stuff from an ex-jock, particularly re connections ... i was foolishly thinking they were all trying every run
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@Hlk23
In low grade handicappers, at least half the field wont be trying, 2/3 will be trying but aren't very good and the one or two that are, will normally fight out the finish. The blind punter has no chance. |
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I've moved the market with Nyala...out to 10s
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@George.B
Weather probably got to Nyala, not a warm today and would probably be happier in South Africa ;) |
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At least half the field ( 50% ) wont be trying, 2/3 ( 66% ) will be trying . Are ya sure about that dom' ?
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2 or 3 ?
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^^ yes hulk , that makes more sense, depending on field size.
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so is anyone actually backing or laying anything or everyone just woffling?
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Take it Willie as Paul is 1 from 18, you'll be laying this for some easy money?
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Cheaper to waffle willie as you well know.
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george,a broken clock is occasionally accurate...today may be the day the cuckoo gets airtime.
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anyone ever found out what the B stands for??
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GEORGE.you sound as if you are following paul in..........did he once make one of your 10 top tipster threads??
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This could be the perfect race to base a novel on with all the "ego's" having now kindly contributed their thoughts, in addition Redundant Punter has started an additional thread in support of Zapateado with an advice of more place than win.
So to summarise paul the b - Bond Angel burkey1885 - Hilight AIS - Zapateado (e/w) george b - Bond Angel domino14 - Zapateado (e/w) redundant punter - Zapateado (more place than win) If the majority vote still means anything, fairly obvious where the money should be invested in this race. |
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No, I need to correct you, I've backed Nyala.
I think the best piece of recent form is Bond Angel's run 2 starts back, but at the prices, and that's what tipstering is about, Nyala for me. |
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Not sure I've ever done a top 10 tipsters thread, cardifffc
And for the record, I won't be following Paul and his shorties in anywhere! |
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Thanks for clarifying pre-race george, the wording of "I'd say the danger imo could be Nyala at around 7/1" implied favourite with Nyala as an alternative to me, but happy to revise before the big off...!
So to summarise paul the b - Bond Angel burkey1885 - Hilight AIS - Zapateado (e/w) george b - Nyala domino14 - Zapateado (e/w) redundant punter - Zapateado (more place than win) After lengthy study my own pick is going to be Hayley's mount Yaa Mous, though the most intriguing runner for me is "Imperial Act" formerly owned by Qatar, now owned by trainer Andrew Balding but being trained by Patrick Chamings for Balding, having previously been under David Simcock's care, obviously not considered good enough for a berth in the Balding stables, though being ridden by Balding's apprentice. |
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This thread is starting to sound like a RUK/ATR pre race preview 1/2 the field tipped any more offers,only need the morning gamble,late mover,late drifter and the rags now.
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Don't be shy Denzil, lets have your own thought/selection, you don't have to have backed it.
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2 to be placed
Matched bets Order by matched date Lay (Bet Against) Backer's odds Backer's stake Payout Liability Hilight 4 £2.10 £6.30 Hilight 4.1 £6.23 £19.31 Hilight 4.2 £4.67 £14.94 Hilight 4.7 £18.86 £69.78 Hilight 4.8 £6.14 £23.33 3 to be placed Matched bets Order by matched date Lay (Bet Against) Backer's odds Backer's stake Payout Liability Hilight 2.34 £24.86 £33.31 Hilight 2.36 £23.14 £31.47 |
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TOP UP
2 to be placed Matched bets Order by matched date Lay (Bet Against) Backer's odds Backer's stake Payout Liability Hilight 4 £12.78 £38.34 Hilight 4.1 £26.55 £82.31 |
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Well done Andrew, dom and RP
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Andrew, Dom, RP
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WD dom/AIS/GEORGE(ew).
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+RP
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