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odds on gold cup??

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Replies: 159
By:
ReaseHeath
When: 28 Dec 16 13:12
Not been off the bridle since April 2015, won 4 Grade 1s as he pleased since then with cumulative winning distance of over 25 lengths.

If that does n't make him a superstar then either all the horses he has beaten are n't very good and/or have run below form every time he's beaten them or the game does n't have a superstar since Sprinter Sacre retired.
By:
Dr Crippen
When: 28 Dec 16 13:19
Well the horses he met in his first three chases weren't very good were they?

It's not unusual for a decent novice to wipe the floor with the opposition they meet at that level.
By:
Dr Crippen
When: 28 Dec 16 13:21
They come and they go.
By:
ReaseHeath
When: 28 Dec 16 13:25
I would suggest it's quite unusual for any horse to win 4 Grade 1 races without coming off the bridle in any of them.
By:
Dr Crippen
When: 28 Dec 16 13:30
You exaggerate.
By:
ReaseHeath
When: 28 Dec 16 13:37
No I don't, go and watch them.
By:
impossible123
When: 28 Dec 16 13:39
Look what happened to the 1992 Gold Cup involving the fav Carvill's Hill? Golden Freeze, an outsider, was rushed up to unsettle him and how successful that was. The same could happen in next year's Gold Cup, I believe.

As a bigger field almost a certainty it is prudent to expect several pacesetters in the field, probably from the Irish contingent, trying to do the same to Thistlecrack. If so, this could play into the hand of Cue Card (if running and soft ground) especially if Thistlecrack's inexperience surfaces. On the other hand if Thistlecrack jumps as he did in the King George there can only be one result ie Thistlecrack beating Cue Card and Djakadam. One should never be afraid of one horse in any race, and I hope Cue Card is given another chance in the Gold Cup despite having Thistlecrack as stablemate.

Thistlecrack can only win in the King George, and the proximity of others to Cue Card who most here think ran below par should not detract from the impressive performance of Thistlecrack - it was awesome from the most inexperienced racehorse in the field.
By:
Dr Crippen
When: 28 Dec 16 14:01
I can only go on what a horse has done.

And so far over fences Thistlecrack has swept away the novices he's been pitted against.

And in the KG he beat two over raced 10 year olds nearly 11 year olds, and a none stayer, along with another who was rated 153 before the race.

I'll reserve judgement on how good Thistlecrack is over fences until he's got a few more big wins under his belt.

Not that I won't back it. He looks the likely winner of the GC at this stage especially with all the principles under a cloud.
But a superstar on what he's done so far? I don't think so.
By:
ReaseHeath
When: 28 Dec 16 14:07
I'll desist from the tit for tat stuff 'cos it's a bit pointless.

I think the point I'm trying to make is that just because Thistlecrack is overhyped, it does n't mean he is n't a superstar. The two are n't mutually exclusive.

If you watched his recent races on mute without knowing anything him, I reckon most would be pretty impressed - the manner of his superiority is similar to Usain Bolt in his pomp - although maybe you don't think Bolt's opponents were any good either. Happy
By:
Dr Crippen
When: 28 Dec 16 14:17
Wasn't the way that Native River bounded away up the hill at Chepstow yesterday impressive, and giving weight all round into the bargain?

We see impressive runs almost every day.

I just saw one at Leicester in the first. Made all, shaken up last - ROW.

Then they flop in their next race like Cue Card did on Monday after his 15 length win at Haydock.
By:
impossible123
When: 28 Dec 16 14:25
Cue Card did not flop,...he was beaten by a younger, inexperienced but extremely talented novice chaser who won the World Hurdle with ease last season. Also, Cue Card has had a hard season so far trying to chase the £1 bonus eg Wetherby and Betfair, and the season before; he is also getting on, almost 11yrs old. But he can still hold his own against the others as shown in the last Gold Cup until falling two out.

I'd back Cue Card without Thistlecrack in March on soft ground.
By:
stewarty b
When: 28 Dec 16 14:26
Another one hundred yards and Native River would have been caught imo.
By:
Dr Crippen
When: 28 Dec 16 14:29
I'll bet connections of Native River hope the handicapper thinks that as well stewerty.
By:
impossible123
When: 28 Dec 16 14:29
Oh, and by the way Native River was winning off a 151 rating - what rating is Cue Card? 176 (yes 176!), a mighty 25lbs superior to Native River.
By:
Dr Crippen
When: 28 Dec 16 14:32
As for racing stars, the old guard fades and the new kid on the block takes over.

It's simply the racing cycle, and the media desperate for a superstar hypes the latest winner up for all they're worth as a new world beater.

It's never been any different.
By:
stewarty b
When: 28 Dec 16 14:35
Well the thing is Dr C this is the way the RP saw it for the second...



stayed on well but always being held



That's not the way I saw it. I firmly believe the second would have got up in the last 100.
By:
Dr Crippen
When: 28 Dec 16 14:35
And Cue Card was 23lbs better than Tea For Two who finished a head behind him at Kempton.
By:
Dr Crippen
When: 28 Dec 16 14:40
It will be interesting to see the figure that the handicapper gives Thistlecrack after that.

He can't go mad with Tea For Two less than four lengths behind. 

And he's already dropped the third from 177 down to 163.
By:
stewarty b
When: 28 Dec 16 14:43
If you look at the bare form of the race the form is a bit muddled by the display of Cue Card but in saying that, two inferior rated horses got to within four lenghts of Thistlecrack.

Gold cup winning form? No for me but this could be the worst GC for a few years.
By:
impossible123
When: 28 Dec 16 14:46
The key to the KG was Cue Card was not allowed to run his usual race ie held up and produced to challenge 2/3 fences out. Hence, the proximity of the likes of Fosses Hill, TFT and Conti who CC beat by a distance at Haydock.

I'd put every penny on CC beating Native River in a any race, all things being equal.
By:
stewarty b
When: 28 Dec 16 14:48
** Having said that, the choke wasn't pulled out on Thistlecrack. Some might say it could have won by further and I would have liked to see that given it's another two furlongs in the GC but no point in pulling out the choke if you don't have to.
By:
impossible123
When: 28 Dec 16 14:53
Indeed, the Gold Cup is the ultimate accolade not the KG. A well deserved and rightful winner on the day and impending Gold Cup in March, I can confidently say, all things being equal, even on soft ground.
By:
stewarty b
When: 28 Dec 16 14:54
The time was also good, (fast by 0.50 seconds) but it was good going. Cue Card likes some juice in the ground so it will be interesting to see what the connections have planned for the horse.
By:
stridingedge
When: 28 Dec 16 14:55
are we already going down the road that this will be the worst gold cup for years Silly
By:
Dr Crippen
When: 28 Dec 16 14:56
The Ryanair by the look of it now that he's gone back.

Only Tizzard knows how far that is.

CC's jockey was almost in tears - he knows the dream is over.
By:
impossible123
When: 28 Dec 16 14:58
Apparently Ryanair, what a premature idea so soon after the KG on unfavourable ground. Maybe Tizzard is more concerned with prize money. What'd happen if Thistlecrack made a bad mistake and finished 2nd to Djakadam or Coneygree with Native River an over-ran? Connections of Cue Card would be fuming, I would if I was the owner.
By:
stridingedge
When: 28 Dec 16 14:59
thistlecrack should still have a deal of improvement over fences, was a brilliant hurdler and undoubtedly has an engine not many horses have to call upon.

whether it jumps round in a hurly burly contest at this stage is another matter, some of them jumps so far he's taken off miles away.
By:
stridingedge
When: 28 Dec 16 15:03
Big shame for me is TC though only 4 chases is 9 in a few days time. Would have been great a couple of years younger, could have really been top draw over fences for a few seasons.

Personally do think this horse is very special but can understand others wanting more evidence.
By:
stridingedge
When: 28 Dec 16 15:07
outlander just won the lexus
By:
stewarty b
When: 28 Dec 16 15:07
CC's jockey was almost in tears - he knows the dream is over.



It's only my opinion but the dream was well and truly over before he (inexplicably again imho) got the nod to pilot Cue Card.
By:
impossible123
When: 28 Dec 16 15:15
And Don Poly was 2nd, I believe, with Djakadam 3rd - no worries for Thistlecrack and Cue Card connections at all.
By:
Dr Crippen
When: 28 Dec 16 15:15
I'll go along with you there stewarty.

Did you hear Tizzard on the telly say that he thought the jockey on CC took on Thistlecrack three fences too soon?

That was a surprise to hear him say that in front of everybody.
By:
stewarty b
When: 28 Dec 16 16:02
I did Dr C. A big surprise to me also. I like them that says it as they see it. I didn't have a bet on the race but I hope Brennan also heard it watcing the replay at home.

I presume it was the connections that gave him the stint. Good jockeys are few and far between but although Brennan isn't a dud they could have picked better imo.


The Tom George route seems the only viable option to me nowadays.
By:
stewarty b
When: 28 Dec 16 19:07
Looking at the betting on here if I was given a free 500 bet it would be 250 EW on Coneygree......at the moment.
By:
unclepuncle
When: 28 Dec 16 19:21
Assuming he is the smae sort of price (Evens) on the day I will be place laying the arse out of Thistlecrack at 1/2 or less.
If Coneygree makes the gig, plus Native River pouring it on from the front he's as likely to fall as win imo so given the choice between evens or 2/1 I'll take the latter.
By:
ZenMaster
When: 28 Dec 16 20:27
Native River pour it on? i doubt he could get Thistlecrack out of 3rd gear....
By:
stewarty b
When: 03 Jan 17 18:05
I may be a tad behind in the latest news/gossip but does anyone know the reason for the alarming drift on Coneygree?

It's only entry so far is the Gold Cup I may add.
By:
impossible123
When: 03 Jan 17 18:21
Coneygree has suffered an injury to one of his hocks and is presently confined to walkies only for a month but hopefully will make the Gold Cup; it is not career-threatening but possibly season-threatening.
By:
stewarty b
When: 03 Jan 17 18:23
Many thanks for that information.
By:
stewarty b
When: 03 Jan 17 18:52
I should google more often....


Coneygree to walk for a month

    Last Updated: December 29 2016, 11:31 GMT

Coneygree will definitely not run again before attempting to regain his crown in the Timico Cheltenham Gold Cup.
Coneygree will be doing plenty more of this for another month.

Mark Bradstock's 2015 Gold Cup hero ran an excellent race in defeat on his return from over a year on the sidelines when runner-up to Cue Card in the Betfair Chase at Haydock in November.

Connections were looking forward to a rematch in the King George VI Chase at Kempton, but Coneygree was ruled out of the Boxing Day spectacular following an unsatisfactory workout.

The trainer's wife, Sara Bradstock, has revealed the nine-year-old is now in a race against time to be fit enough to run in the blue riband on March 17.

"He's good and we're hoping he'll be ready to run in the Gold Cup, but he won't run before then," Bradstock told Press Association Sport.

"He's fine, but it came out in the wash that he's jarred himself a little bit. It's not a serious injury, but as we all know, while he is a miracle horse, he is fragile.

"You never really know with him, but I'm hopeful he'll make the Gold Cup.

    Profiles

    Coneygree
    M Bradstock

"We'll walk him now for a month until he's super-well and then we'll see where we are.

"He'll be fine by the time the Gold Cup comes around, the question is whether we'll have him ready."

Bradstock was an interested observer as Cue Card proved no match for hugely impressive stable-companion Thistlecrack in the King George.

Colin Tizzard's charge is now odds-on with some bookmakers for the Gold Cup, but Bradstock would not be afraid to take him on with Coneygree.

She said: "I don't think the King George told us much, really. Thistlecrack did what he did beautifully, but what did he do?

"Cue Card is a wonderful horse, but he has a few miles on the clock and I think he showed when he ran at Wetherby (third in Charlie Hall Chase) that he's not as effective on good ground as he is on soft.

"He just beat Silviniaco Conti for second and he was miles behind him at Haydock. We wouldn't be frightened to take Thistlecrack on, anyway.

"If we can get Coneygree there at the top of his game, he'll be up for the challenge and we'll try and show him who's boss!"
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