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Regardless of whether you are ultimately proved right in your conclusion, I think your reading of the race and Cue Card's performance in particularly is seriously flawed.
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In the Gold Cup and a larger field I think there will be a quicker pace than the KG today thus Thistlecrack would not need to make the pace; Coneygree being so fragile might not turn up for the Gold Cup and even if he does will need it soft to be a factor, the same goes for the majority of his probable opposition - Thistlecrack goes on any ground. It would not surprise me if he goes off odds-on if some of his major protagonists do not turn up eg Coneygree, Cue Card, etc.
What price for the 2018 Gold Cup I wonder? |
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Can't believe no one has mentioned the fact Cue Card needs soft ground!
Paddy refereed to this post race, he never really travelled in his usual manner today and that's because he didn't have soft ground, I still think he's capable of beating TC if the ground comes up soft in the GC. |
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About a stone better horse than Cue Card,regardless of ground,course,trip,beat it like a drum every time.Tizzard knew this,hence why the bold tactic from owners and himself.
well regarded and well deserved,best ive seen in a fair old while and up there with likes of Denman, kauto though still not at there level yet as no Gold cup. Visually though as good a performance ive seen in a G1 for a long time! |
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if you take it conygree badly needed the run at haydock the bareform says cue card hasnt lifted a leg this season
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The clock at Haydock as I read it says he produced a top notch performance.
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Cue Card does not need soft ground. A stock excuse given by most trainers and jockeys for any below par display they can't otherwise explain.
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barton , forget the winning times of 3 mile chases its almost totally irrelevant.todays felt ham winner was about to produce a time that would have bettered thistlecrack but in reality it would have almost zero chance of getting near to thistlecrack., no truer saying than"time only matters if you're doing it"
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Cue Card probably past his best now - certainly not going to be improving. A top performance from TC but Gold Cup a different race again. For every brilliant horse who's won the race there's a couple or more plodders.
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The hype created by the television pundits in trying to create a new horse racing hero seems to have gone to the heads of many punters on here.
Most of us will have seen it all before. Thistlecrack beat four horses today, and his main opponent didn't give its true running. A good run from a novice, but if that's all as good as he is then why so much excitement? |
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They want to put that last jump on a bottle of Babycham.
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No, it isn't. Extremely useful if you know what you are doing.
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With Cue Card finishing upsides Tea for Two and Conti it seems obvious that he has only ran to a mark of around 157. That is about 20 pounds below form. It seems he just cannot handle any ground other than soft or heavy these days. That means Thistlecrack, who beat them 3-4 lengths, probably only ran to low 160s - and therefore should have won easily. Undoubtedly a good performance, but the performance needs to be put into perspective.
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Someone mentioned last week (might have been Zenmaster) - Thistlecrack has n't been off the bridle since April 2015 - Scudamore shook him up for a couple of hundred yards and then settled for doing a silly dance in the sadlle.
I know the ground was kinder than usual but usually the horses look shattered when they get back in the parade ring after these top class staying chases - he looked like he fancied starting a ruck with the horses in the handicap hurdle. He just looks a freak to me, would love to see him in the National in a year or two. For all that, he could still have an accident in the Cotswold Chase (God forbid) and lengthen for the Gold Cup so there's no point in getting involved in that market for me. |
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I think it was, "time only matters to those in prison," or something like that Luca said.
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Cue Card is a better horse on soft ground however, the ground at Kempton Park today was good/good to soft so unlikely the excuse for being beaten - he was just beaten by a younger, better horse and a future Gold Cup champion, all things being equal.
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he's a jumps Frankel..outjumped them too
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Flashy 26 Dec 16 18:57
With Cue Card finishing upsides Tea for Two and Conti it seems obvious that he has only ran to a mark of around 157. That is about 20 pounds below form. It seems he just cannot handle any ground other than soft or heavy these days. That means Thistlecrack, who beat them 3-4 lengths, probably only ran to low 160s - and therefore should have won easily. Undoubtedly a good performance, but the performance needs to be put into perspective. I think most will say/agree CC didn't run to his mark today, but to say Thistlcrack only beat it 3 lengths so ran to an early 160 is a bit off the mark imo. That 3 lengths could have been 10. |
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Agree Magic Daps
Having watched again, the horse still had acceleration in his body after being eased down at the last, he had to gather some momentum back up and he was still doing the Ali shuffle laughing at them. He could have won by 12L if Tom had asked him for a big one at the last but why should he? |
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Bare form 160, then value another 10 lengths or so for me
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I loved it, looked like the horse enjoyed himself.
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I loved it, looked like the horse enjoyed himself.
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I agree Magic Daps that it could have been more, but all I am saying is that to win a gold cup he will probably have to run to 175 ish...therefore another 15 lengths more. It is a matter of opinion whether he had this much in hand.
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Perhaps the OH will match his hurdle rating and give him 174
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Although TC needs to be careful at the open ditches, i can see him landing on top of one, it's a sight to behold watching his leap from outside the wings of an open ditch but he needs to be on the button to pull it off.
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Thistlecracks Jumping was spectacular but bloody hell he really did stand off a few, he gets one of them wrong and he'll end up in the fence!
It's fine margins. |
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nh racing is fraught with fine margins.
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The Tizzard's have created a MONSTER. It's staggering to remember that THISTLECRACK couldn't finish in front of CAMPING GROUND in receipt of over a stone 21 months ago. The improvement has been sensational.
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Kim
I know that the horse had back issues, the engine was too big for the frame until the frame strengthened. The improvement happened once his body could cope with the V8 engine inside. |
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Even ruby managed to win on him once!
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[i]jedi sophie 26 Dec 16 18:25
About a stone better horse than Cue Card,regardless of ground,course,trip,beat it like a drum every time.Tizzard knew this,hence why the bold tactic from owners and himself. well regarded and well deserved,best ive seen in a fair old while and up there with likes of Denman, kauto though still not at there level yet as no Gold cup. Visually though as good a performance ive seen in a G1 for a long tim I agree. I think this horse is very special. He loves to race.His exuberance in running was a joy to watch. The Gold Cup in March, is his to lose. |
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Did young Tom have a tear in his eye ? Rarely does he express such emotions so I can only assume this animal must be pretty special. Well done to all the connection.
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Did young Tom have a tear in his eye ? Rarely does he express such emotions so I can only assume this animal must be pretty special
It does not take a tear in the jocks eye to tell you that the horse is special.... your own eyes should be telling you that! |
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The trouble is koi the ones who have been against the horse from the start of this season will always be against it. It only beat trees before yesterday and should never be fav for the GC, now it has been upped in class it only beat another crop of poor animals and the main challenger didn't turn up. If Coneygree would have turned up and finished second yesterday the same people would be saying Coneygree was never on song/unfit etc etc.
Of course it could get beat in the GC, could fall or land on a fence, be brought down etc, but I just fail to see how anyone could not be impressed by that yesterday. If it wins the GC the same people will be saying it was the worst GC in history. |
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Correct Magic. This Cue Card" underperformed" nonsense is all the knockers can come up with. They must know more than Paddy Brennan then! His reaction said it all.Thistlecrack broke Cue Cards heart. When Brennan tried to put it up to TC, and was then left toiling in it's wake, THAT was it for CC. It didn't underperform , irrespective of what the ratings say. It just blew a gasket trying to go with the winner. Just as a boxer would putting EVERYTHING into two rounds in a twelve round about! We see the same thing happen so so often. Colin Tizzard said Cue Card was spot on. Who am I to argue?
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Cue was run off his feet from 4 out, that acceleration from Thistlecrack probably exhausted CC, he had to try and sprint to stay in contention.
Take Thistlecrack out of the race and i think CC would have won comfortably. |
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so cue card ran to form
dont worry about times wouldnt have beat lightbite yesterday forget about yesterdays horse conti beaten 4 or 5 lgths forget about 2,4 miles jossies finishing close up forget about t 4 t not beaten far after lizzie strangled it,went round london on the bends etc,etc,you have to be stevie wonder to go into hyberbloe over that yesterday |
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You are taking the distance literally though 1st time poster, Thistlecrack could have stretched further away imo.
And Cue Card was ridden to win the race, where the others? or did connections opt to race for prize money? Funny things can happen when there are different tactics applied. |
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And regarding the time of Light bite etc.
He was 18L ahead of a horse rated 131 Are you seriously suggesting that is a bridge too far for Thistlecrack? Again, times can give a funny perception of reality. |
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zen you are bang on, times are BS,times compared on different days or different tracks or going are totally(not nearly totally) but totally pointless.today the time variance between what the felt ham winner would have put up being better than thistlecrack shows even on the same track same day they are all but meaningless.
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