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odds on gold cup??
odds on gold cup??
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Replies: 159
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The time guru's do not take into account the cat and mouse tempo in these top notch C1's
You would have to think Might Bite and Royal Vacation improved by 20lbs since their last runs to compare the times literally. It doesn't seem likely |
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i can accept the times of 5/6 furlong races on the same day having a spot of meaning as generally sprints are run pretty much flat out"but even then sometimes thats not the case"
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I tend to use my eyes but have some reference points to ratings, otherwise you will interpret times into 20lbs of improvements when comparing.
Yes perhaps in sprints i might pay attention. |
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if we reversed the situation and cue card had scrambled home in the kg and thistlecraft had won the feltham in a faster time,doubt the thistlecrack supporters would be saying times mean nothing and cue cards ran to his 180 ratings,all the rest thistle broke cue cards back etc is just guessing.at 5 to 4 for the gold cup theres more than enough questions over yesterdays performance to look elsewhere,imo
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Ok, let's say the 1st and 2nd in the Feltham improved by 20lbs then, seems plausable
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1st time poster - so the market is miles wrong in your opinion. How much have you layed it for, and how much is that up to your min/max bet?
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Do you lot all think Cue Card's form right-handed is the same as left? I don't. Not by a long chalk. He's quite clearly a better animal going the other way round. Thistlecrack is obviously a very good horse, but this standing outside the wings business will not serve him well in a Gold Cup imo.
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Nope, i don't think CC is as effective right handed as left handed consistently, but he did according to the OH run his best race in last years KG up to an OR 176.
However, i do think that CC spits his dummy out more often than not going right handed. |
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Thistlecrack got his big win 50 years from the day of Arkle's last race.
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Thistlecrack was sensational yesterday; he was never out of rhythm despite the efforts of Cue Card and company - he was just toying with them and he deserves to win the Gold Cup in March and a few more after. By the way, Cue Card could be Ryanair bound, a bit premature, I'd think, in case Thistlecrack cannot run.
The question is...what price for the 2017 Triple Crown £1m bonus and 2018 Gold Cup? |
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He is effective on any ground as well 123 (TC that is) so heavy ground Haydock, good ground Kempton...makes very little difference to him.
I think we may see that million bonus withdrawn  |
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Thistlecrack will be the lay of the meeting at Cheltenham, worst King George ive seen
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We need more people like you, do have many clones?
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We need more people like you, do YOU have many clones?
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If it's the lay of the meeting from oneyall that enhances its chances.
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Am I the only one that is completely bored with the Thistlecrack chat? A 5 runner King George is pathetic. None of the others put pressure on his jumping in the first circuit which is ludicrous judging by the way he jumped the first. Cue Card should have been right up there hassling him
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And as for Scudamore and his tears....
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He looked a right Jessie bursting into tears like that.
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Exactly. Looks ridiculous with that black gumshield also.
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Tizzard does not want Thistlecack, Native River and Cue Card in the Gold Cup - he is alluding to the Ryanair for Cue Card.
Is that not too premature just yet? Cue Card is the 2nd best chaser after Thistlecrack, and until recently was the fav. What'd happen if Thistlecrack cannot make the race? And I do not believe Native River possesses the potential, form and class to win the Gold Cup. Talk about the longevity of a politician, that of a racehorse is even shorter! |
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Shouldn't he wait and see what Cue Card's new rating will be after that disappointment on Monday?
Surely he won't remain on 176 if that was his form? |
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The Ryanair is far less prestigious than the Gold Cup (GC) and personally, I do not believe the Ryanair (20f) suits Cue Card (CC) better than the GC - he'd be done for toe, I believe.
Anyway, CC was unlucky in the last GC; CC is still a better horse than Native River in my opinion; a softer ground will suit CC more than at Kempton; anything could happen to Thistlecrack prior to/in the race itself eg unwell/a loose saddle, shoe, bad mistake, etc. I hope his owners allow him another crack at the Gold Cup, and hopefully atone for his fall last time. |
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I think they feel he might have gone back now.
He's eleven soon. A run in the Ryanair could sharpen him up for a shot at Aintree again. One thing's for sure, they can't go to the well every time with him like they did last year. |
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I agree, he'll be 11 next year and he's been over-raced especially when chasing the £1m bonus. I think CC ought to be given a rest, then a racecourse gallop prior to another tilt at the GC or head straight to Aintree. But do not take him out on account of Thistlecrack (different owner) when he's the beating of everyone bar Don Cossack that ran in the GC last year; Thistlecrack could have an off day in the GC, and I cannot see Native River winning it given the taxing races this horse has had so far.
I was perturbed by Tizzard's admission he knew where Thistlecrack would be going when he entered the horse for the King George (KG), and he was merely (pretending) otherwise in the post KG interview. A knee jerk reaction, I believe, from Tizzard to go for the Ryanair with CC so soon after the KG. But nevertheless I think it will happen. |
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The Ascot Chase in February is likely to be Cue Cards next race.
Agree that they will concentrate on Thistlecrack for the Gold Cup but if i was the owners of CC i would still want one last stab at the Gold Cup. He has not looked great on his last few runs on good ground but still looks capable with plenty of cut, perhaps he just prefers jumping onto softer ground these days. Only a guess. |
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jumped like a crab down the back in heavy at haddock.never looked a great jumper but put someone with plenty of blarney on his back and every win is a wonder win,most of his chase wins have more holes than my bucket in them,
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if thistlecracks as good as he,s hyped upto be after yesterday and fellow trainers believe it, there,ll be plenty heading for the ryanair
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Magic__Daps
27 Dec 16 08:30 Of course it could get beat in the GC, could fall or land on a fence, be brought down etc, but I just fail to see how anyone could not be impressed by that yesterday. If it wins the GC the same people will be saying it was the worst GC in history. I think everyone who watched the race was impressed by the performance, the fact that we're not all knocking one out over it doesn't mean we weren't impressed. The fact that some of us think that it doesn't compare to a couple of kauto's KG's, Denman's Hennessy, Coneygree's GC,what SS did to CC at Liverpool or for my money Vautours JLT doesn't mean we weren't impressed with what TC did yesterday.  |
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It wasn't the kind of performance that I would call ''impressive.'' Not enough distance for me.
They usually reserve that comment for hard held, a very smart turn of foot or a long way in front. He didn't come right away from Cue Card, who took him on three fences too early according to his trainer. And Cue Card in turn didn't put good lengths between himself and the rest like we've come to expect from him. How will it rate on paper 170? Making Cue Card's performance 10lbs down. |
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Making Cue Card's performance 10lbs down.
Well down more than that because I've rated off the third and allowed for the winner being eased. |
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I disagree duffy - if you think everyone was impressed you must be reading a different forum than what I am. I am not comparing the performance to Kauto, Denman etc at all, I just think it was mightily impressive.
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I think the OH will give Thistlecrack the same mark he has over hurdles , or just below something like 172+
Cue Card ran to about 162 perhaps, Thistlecrack had another few more lengths in him in my opinion. So on his top mark of 176, Cue Card ran a stone below his best. Revising his mark to 168 perhaps. |
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I think Cue Card ran below par too but do not take anything away from the performance of Thistlecrack - he was awesome as he could have won by a bigger margin if wanted to.
The good ground did not help Cue Card and neither did the lack of pace throughout when Josses Hill, the anticipated pacesetter, was happy to tag along at the back. Hence, Cue Card was rushed to take Thistlecrack on much earlier than Brennan would have liked and as such was not able to run his usual race ie held up and challenged 2/3 out. And this could be the reason for the proximity of the other runners to him. In the Gold Cup on soft ground and a larger field Cue Card (if running) would finish closer to Thistlecrack but Thistlecrack, barring an accident, would still win. |
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I've taken 11.5 about Djakadam for GC which i think a sporting bet ahead of the Lexus tomorrow,but i still think Thistlecrack if he stays sound will win the GC his jumping and acceleration around Kempton was mighty impressive.
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ridiculous saying cuecard ran to a stone below his form, paddy used him trying to get the novice into a mistake down the back, what imo he had to do to win the race
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Fashion, but whatever the reasons for it (and no doubt taking Thistlecrack on early was a contributory factor), Cue Card was still more or less a stone below his best going by the proximity of the horses close behind him.
Personally i think it would be madness to run Cue Card in the Ryan Air when he would probably still be 2nd or 3rd favourite for the Gold Cup. I'd rather win one gold cup than 10 Ryan Air's. If I was the owner of Cue Card I would be demanding the chance to go for the Gold Cup. Thistlecrack's jumping is yet to be tested by a big field and for all his brilliance it's still likely there will be a jump or two where he takes a real chance. It's hard to forget Cue Card travelling all over them before he fell in this years Gold Cup and his other great performances. If Coneygree and Djakadam are disputing 2nd favourite then Cue Card should be running. Having said all this i still think Native River is the biggest danger to Thistlecrack (apart from the fences). He's improving all the time and looks an absolute machine to me (admittedly with less speed than Thistlecrack). Let's hope for a Tizzard 1,2,3. |
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It's compelling to take the view that Cue Card ran well below at Kempton.
If that is the case then what exactly did Thistlecrack achieve in the King George? A Cue Card in form when let down would have effortlessly drawn 10 lengths clear of the others he met at Kempton. Yet he only managed to go two lengths up on TFT who was rated 23 lbs inferior. Thistlecrack is being completely overhyped in my opinion. The media are trying to make a superstar out of him before he's proved anything. |
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Thistle could have won by 10 though if it wanted to imo, eased down with Tom stood up celebrating in the saddle 60 yards from the finish.
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We see wins like that every day of the week.
It doesn't make them superstars. Look at Cue Card's last two wins against similar opposition. |