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Frankel
Frankel
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Well if you are measuring Frankel against CC then you win!!
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truehoncho wtf are you talking about, have you read the whole thread ? our argument defeats us seems kind of bizarre, the quote you've pulled refers to the fact we may not have seen the best Frankel has to offer us this season. strange post
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i suggest you re read the post. A previous post states that CC is a good stallion suggesting that if Frankel is as good as him he will be a success. He wont.
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truehoncho having a 'mare on ere
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re read the post several times it makes no sense
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Stallion stats, like most other things in racing these days, can suffer from data overload and over analysis. More time needed.
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^^^ Don't know what happened with the quote function, commercially they were failures, breeders will have lost on them.
The fact it is September and we haven't seen a Group 1 class 2yo Frankel colt will be a mild disappointment for sure. What he is getting is proper racehorses that run though the line hard like all the good Galileos. Great sign. |
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If you are talking about not having seeing a Gr1 class 2YO Frankel colt so far actually win a race of that level in order to be considered Gr1 class, except for the Nunthorpe where it would up against all aged sprinters, I can't think of another UK Gr1 2YO race that has been run so far this season.
If on the other hand what was meant was that we haven't in general seen a Frankel 2YO colt that is Gr1 class well maybe we have but it just hasn't go on to show it yet and we still have the Middle Park, Dewhurst and Racing Post Trophy yet to come and it's even possible that this season's 2YO Frankel colts might need their 3YO season to show that they are Gr1 level anyway. |
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Precocity is important to commerciality, so if they are ready, they should get them out. A clear Coventry winner would be one I would consider Group 1 Class, I don't want to get bogged down in semantics.
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Yet to see a Frankel 2yo colt with group 1 potential on the racetrack; I should clarify, misread you there IMA
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Gosden's Seven Heavens looked promising but not been seen since early July. Juddmonte provide a list of his 2yos here:
http://www.juddmonte.com/stallions/frankel/twoyearolds.aspx Incidentally I believe the best performers from Galileo's firs crop were Sixties Icon and Red Rocks. |
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Cape Cross won once (20/1, by neck from Poteen) from 6 runs @ Grp 1 level...went on to produce two Derby/Arc winners plus an 8-time Grp-1 winner in Ouija Board and two people on this thread are insistent he was a 'failure' at stud
 In fairness, one of them thinks it's September already...what chance have you got  |
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Failure commercially! not as a sire of racehorses.
All three of those horses were owned by owner-breeders who are breeding to race. Commercial Breeders would've lost on him as they would still now with his higher fee, as the market doesn't want them, they aren't fashionable. I think we are at cross purposes, I'm not saying Frankel won't produce great racehorses, I'm saying that failure to produce Group 1 winning 2yo colts will hinder those trying to make a buck off him as precocity seems to be highly valued by the market. Not sure if it matters all that much any way as nearly all of his seem to be in the hands of the big owner-breeders anyway from what I've seen so far. |
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This is a totally different subject, isn't it? We're not debating whether breeders will be able to turn a coin on Frankel or whether they did/are with Cape Cross. If breeders didn't do well out of Cape Cross has the stallion failed or is it their judgement that's failed...on the mating and potential market forces balanced against his stud fee? He's clearly a very good sire who came up the hard way and was capable of getting runners far better than he was. Failure is a big word, this is Cape Cross not War Front.
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Good point, two different things.
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Frankel's fee prices him out of range for those seeking precocity. He's the second most expensive sire in England.
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I think that's more a reflection of the sires in the UK at the minute and an opening for a "quality" sire that gets 2yos like Scat Daddy (deceased), War Front or Galileo.
Whoever finds one will make a lot of money. |
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Think that is what Darley were going for in buying New Approach and Teofilo as much as a way into Galileo. They're really rare.
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Danehill Dancer was another one, great 2yos up to middle distance 3yos, George Washington would've been one but for his problem I'd say.
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It would be interesting to know how much "profit" Coolmore make out of Galileo - as they must own 90% of them in training.
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A_T 26 Aug 16 13:41
Frankel's fee prices him out of range for those seeking precocity. He's the second most expensive sire in England neill d 26 Aug 16 13:43 I think that's more a reflection of the sires in the UK at the minute Yeah, no reflection on him being probably the greatest racehorse ever |
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I'm saying it is possible to use sires that get classy and precocious horses, Frankel's racing career is obviously a huge factor in his fee, whether he gets Gr 1 class 2yos remains to be seen.
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ie, there are no sires in the UK that are proven get classy and precocious horses. Dubawi is brilliant but doesn't. Frankel will probably end up like him but if he managed to get brilliant 2yos as well, that would be smashing.
It is probably an unfair expectation, but such was the brilliant if not early 2yo that he was, expectation is that he can do everything. Maybe he will, but we ain't seen it this year yet. His next couple of books will tell. |
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I believe the reason the pressure is on those trainers with Frankel's to get them out and winning is because when the sales come around most buyers apparently, according to Henry Candy, want two year old winners as opposed to longer term projects. By having some 2 year old winners the probability of selling at good prices will be better than having no 2 year old winners but loads of good 3 year old prospects.
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Owner breeders, on the other hand, who are not sending their yearlings to the sales will not necessarily mind taking more time with their horses.
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ima_mazed66 22 Aug 16 13:18 Joined: 12 Oct 09 | Topic/replies: 9,869 | Blogger: ima_mazed66's blog
In my view Frankel would have stayed 12f all day long as a 3YO or 4YO and I doubt it was so much a case of Henry Cecil doubting that he would and more a combination of how he won the 2000gns I agree Ima - Frankel (put to sleep and delivered by a jock who could TRULY judge pace) would have waltzed up over 12f - if not as a 3-yr-old in the Derby (although I believe he could have) for sure in an Arc Watch the footage again of Frankel after the Juddmonte International - watch Cecil run his hands down the horse to find NOT A BEAD OF SWEAT and turn to comment on that... It's a story for another thread - "With 20/20 hindsight what jockey would you have put on Frankel?" My vote would be Kinane... I would have paid him whatever it took to haul him out of retirement - the way he delivered STS in both the Derby and the Arc showed he still retained so much of his talent and timing... and Kinane at 85% would have been better than anything else available then... (and NOW, IMHO fwiw...!) Back to Frankel - I had a conversation very recently with someone who has finally decided to stop the chemo after 14 months... and just let the disease have him... I asked him why he put himself through such misery (his teeth have been rotted away by the ferocity of the treatment) and he said he still believed he could beat the disease until v recently... Why did Cecil drag himself out of bed when he was a skeleton at the end? HOW did he find the energy and willpower to do it? Frankel... Why did he put up with the tremendous doses that were litterally killing him as much as the disease itself? Frankel Why did he allow them to risk raising the potency to such a level that his poor body finally gave up and he didn't come off the treatment table alive? Frankel!!! He believed in the horse. He believed it could be even better as a five-year old - and there is footage of him saying that. We will never know his plans, but I'd be pretty damned sure the way Frankel sauntered to victory over the 10f at York and Acot that the horse would have stayed 12f into a gale as a 5yr-old... Would we have seen the horse win an Arc, go to Singapore and HK and make a million new friends as it mopped up their 10f cup races and win the Breeders Cup turf by 10l going away?? I believe so, but will never know. I'm sure there are many reasons many have stumped up a pile of cash for his stud fee: * to introduce some speed into their tired old middle-distance blood-lines? * because they believe they could do a better job of the training * because they. too, want to own a little of the reflected glory? Who knows, but if some of them want to see early returns and some others are prepared to sit and wait and allow the offspring to develop before putting them to the test, that's their perogative and one they have paid handsomely for...! It's been fun watching the early ones (although it's not always been fun watching one-trick trainers treating every animal with the same training hymn-sheet - there's a thread elsewhere about to whom would you NOT send a Frankel colt, I'd nominate Mark Johnston all day long!) but the ones that will really set my heart on fire will be those that are more likely to be 10-12f eventually and come out over the next three months or early next season and I think it is those by which he will be better judged... We shall see - that's half of the fun of the game, pitting one's wits and trying to find an edge...  |
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Brigust1
I believe the reason the pressure is on those trainers with Frankel's to get them out and winning is because when the sales come around most buyers apparently, according to Henry Candy, want two year old winners as opposed to longer term projects. By having some 2 year old winners the probability of selling at good prices will be better than having no 2 year old winners but loads of good 3 year old prospects. The intriguing aspect of this is that on retirement, Frankel was not your ordinary stallion prospect. Unlike the majority of new sires, he was never going to be a 'sales' horse. Of the 133 mares he covered in his first year, 126 in foal, only 31 were offered as yearlings. Most of Frankel's first crop were retained by owner-breeders. And not much has changed this year with only 9 yearlings catalogued at Arqana August 2016, 17 due to sell at Tatts Book 1 and just 3 at Goffs Orby. |
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Morning JM. I was only repeating what two trainers have said on the TV. Richard Fahey, I think it was, said he felt the pressure was on to get them out and winning and Henry Candy said more and more buyers are looking for 2 year old types compared with previous years.
I don't follow the sales side at all but I guess those with pockets deep enough would look at their investment in a completely different way than the usual studs and mare owners looking for sires and buyers with good investment potential. I doubt the prices involved here would necessarily represent investment potential. Nothing unusual about that I guess. |