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Frankel
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I don't doubt that AT I just think the dams influence is important. The reason Frankel never ran over 12f may well have been because his dam was a sprinter.
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My reason is actually not flawed brigust1 for the very fact as you mention that there is a clear route to the Arc but as I've already said, no 3YO is going to go from the 2000gn straight to the Arc when trying 12f for the first time and neither is a 4YO likely to try 12f for the first time in the Arc either for that matter.
Their first opportunity to go for a 12f Gr1 race with Frankel in his classic season was the Derby and I've already suggested a couple of reason why that didn't happen. I also never suggested plans for Frankel were "scuppered" when the same owner/trainer saw their intended Derby horse beaten in the Dante. What I was suggesting was that was their intended Derby runner, which made it easier to miss the Derby with Frankel, as opposed to them not having an alternative runner and then maybe risking going for the Derby with Frankel, just to see if he got 12f for the first time when up against his own age group. If he didn't then that was hardly his career over, was it? I elaborated on that by saying once their Derby horse flopped in the Dante, I assume Frankel had been given a bit of a break in training after his 2000gns efforts and it was too late to reconsider going for the Derby with him, presumably with the horse also having a different type training schedule having decided to stay at a mile and wait for Royal Ascot as opposed to Epsom. So having explained why I feel they didn't go to 12f with Frankel in his 3YO season since they thought they had their Derby horse that year, as well as probably not wanting to try the step up in trip either overseas for the first time or against older horses for the first time in races like the Eclipse or KG, and wanting to avoid a clash with Workforce (who also ran in the Eclipse too for that matter) those in my view were the reasons for not stepping up in trip in Frankel's 3YO season. I never suggested the Dante defeat of the stablemate was a reason for Frankel not going over 12f as a 4YO. A 4YO Frankel trying 12f for the first time is another matter but what I was saying was the Arc is hardly the ideal race to be doing that and even mentioned the KG as being the better alternative but once that didn't happen, it was very unlikely Frankel was ever going to run in the Arc as a 4YO. It's always an issue trying a horse at a longer trip for the first time, as it is running it overseas for the first time too, so you don't really want to be doing both at the same time and especially in the most competitive Gr1 of the season. So I think it's maybe a little overly simplistic to say it was down to you options a) and b) alone. |
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Ima I don't believe for one moment Frankel would run in the Derby and the subsequent actions of his handlers throughout the rest of his career give solid evidence to that. But I have no problem with Frankel staying at a mile as a 3 year old. The QE11 was the only realistic final race for him.
However as a 4 year old after the Lockinge win the natural progression, if you intend to run at 12f, is the Eclipse. The problem is there was a good chance he would meet So You Think and whoever won the 2012 Derby. They knew Camelot was the likely Derby winner and they also knew AOB runs his Derby winners in the Irish Derby so the only real danger was So You Think. And he was a real danger. He had already swerved So You Think in the Prince of Wales, they put up either the Queen Anne or the Prince of Wales as his next race after the Lockinge. As it was So You Think went lame and missed the Eclipse. It was then that the decision to run in the Queen Anne scuppered any chance of a 12f run in the King George and therefore the Arc. Tellingly after the Queen Anne Stakes win Cecil said 'he looks like he will stay 10f' but ruled out the Eclipse in favour of the Sussex Stakes. That comment confirms the King George was never on the agenda and for them to swerve the Eclipse was the final step. The only reason they did not run in the Eclipse, I believe, was because there was chance, however small, that he would beaten as they were not completely convinced he would stay the 10f at a stiff track like Sandown against the strongest opposition around. So there you have it. It really is as simple as a) and b). |
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^It was then the decision to run in * not the Queen Anne Stakes the Sussex Stakes.
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Hi Brigust,
Hope life is good with you; are you back in UK or still abroad ? It’s difficult to know if Frankel would have stayed 12f at winnable pace, the sport of kings is full of similar conundrums. VOB wasn’t sure Nijinsky would stay the 12f before the Derby, but he went on to win the triple crown. He also had similar doubts with Sir Ivor who won the Derby and Washington International, but quality milers Blushing Groom, Wollow and Dawn Approach (amongst others) all tried and failed to stay the Derby trip. There were those that thought Frankel wouldn’t even get 10f, but he couldn’t have been more impressive winning the Juddmonte by 7L and it took TQ an age to pull him up. On breeding, the dam Kind was all about sprinting (and very useful) but with Galileo as the sire, it provides a little more hope of producing a 12f colt. Kind was also the dam of Noble Mission and he stayed 12f well enough. Based on his Juddmonte jaunt, high cruising speed, instant turn of foot and ease of his wins, I personally think Frankel would have stayed 12f as a 4 year old, but on the flip side of the coin, the question has to be asked, if he did, why didn’t HRAC run him in the Autumn 12f races. Frankels’ program was mapped out early in the season and although there were ‘whispers’ that he might have gone for the Arc after the Juddmonte, it was never really on the cards, HRAC was far too ill to travel by then. Of course there was also a commercial fly in the ointment, Frankel had become a global equine superstar worth zillions as an unbeaten 4 year old, so maybe KA thought it ‘wise’ for him to finish his racing career at 10f where he was unbeatable, and this is what I feel is the answer. For what it’s worth, I think that HRAC would have loved to train Frankel as a 5 year old, he actually stated in an interview the horse would have been even better the following season, but due to his illness, Henry probably knew he didn't have long. If Frankel had ran again the following season, I would envisage him winning 2 or 3 10f races, then retiring unbeaten after winning a couple of 12f races, maybe even the 2013 Arc with the 3 year old filly Treve in it, that would have been some race. Although Frankel never raced over 12f or went to Longchamp, it doesn’t detract from his greatness one iota, the wonderful Brigadier Gerard only raced over 12f once and didn’t go for the Arc either. Instead racing fans should be thankful they had opportunity to watch these 2 champions race as 4 year olds; looking at the list of greats, it’s a rarity. I was lucky enough to see Frankel race 4 times, including his QA and champion stakes wins, and sadly seeing a very frail HRAC who only had 8 more months to live, those memories will stay with me for a very long time. |
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We seem to be on a bit of a loop here brigust1 and I've said that I don't believe Frankel not running in the Derby was only due to fears alone of him not staying, but also by the manner in which he won the 2000gns and the fact they thought they already had their Derby horse were other contributing factors. Had he won coming from behind or had they not had what they thought was their Derby horse makes it more likely that they would have let Frankel take his chance, as let's face it, it's hardly unusual for a 2000gns winner to try to double up in the Derby, is it?
Obviously at some stage they made the decision not to run Frankel in the race but I would imagine he had the entry to do so and I very much doubt the decision not to run was taken at the end of the horse's 2YO career or after winning the Greenham, all races where he never hit the front in them until around the 3f pole when ridden from behind. If he tried to win the Derby in the manner he ran in the 2000gns then it's very unlikely he would have won that way, yet it's also very unlikely that he would have been ridden that way had they tried. I just think after the way he won the 2000gns they had a rethink, even though he had never run a race like that before and only ran that way due to being drawn widest apart as possible from his pacemaker and so wanting to get out and across to keep tabs on him, yet that horse could never get to the front and so Tom Queally decided to set his own pace on the horse instead. I personally think there was an overreaction by connections based on that run and as previously mentioned, helped a bit by thinking they already had an alternative Derby runner. So whilst I obviously don't dispute that they eventually didn't intend running in the Derby, I'm also considering when that decision was likely made and so not just a case of a) or b) alone in my view, despite them undoubtedly being contributing factors. |
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Hi Andrew. I'm doing fine thank you. I split my time here and in France so I'm over now to spend some time with the grandchildren.
I couldn't agree more with what you said as an opinion. It's based upon solid assumptions and that is good enough. After all no-one really knows, do they? Personally my opinion is that Frankel would not have stayed unless permitted to do so as he was in the Juddmonte. If pressure was applied I believe that would have been it. He hit a wall in the St James Palace Stakes, and was definitely not running on in the Champion Stakes. He had a thing about emptying very quickly. And in the 2000 Gns they were closing on him and in the Queen Anne his final furlong was very slow. BG on the other hand did stay. When he ran on heavy ground, although pressed, he was always going away not tiring or being caught at the end. The King George he ran in was run at a breakneck pace and being drawn no.1 he had to race 3 or 4 wide the whole way because Joe knew Willie would make a break on Parnell. And when he passed Parnell it looks like he cut him up but the head on tells a completely different story. Even the French stewards who were at Ascot that day agreed that he would have kept the race in France. It was a trait of Parnell's to go left under pressure and as soon as BG got ahead he ducked left he did the same in France the following season and was disqualified after winning. |
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I understand what you are saying Ima and it is a perfectly valid point of view. We are not privy to the decision making process. Henry may have been wanting to race him on his merits but ultimately never had the final decision. The media, and the ratings organisations, put them in an almost impossible situation by putting Frankel at the top of the tree after the Queen Anne Stakes. Anything after that had to be as risk free as possible while retaining some credibility.
On the other hand Henry had a record of not taking chances. He never ran Kris over 10f and he never ran Twice Over over 12f. My guess is he firmly believed in his own ability and played by those rules. Another reason why I pick a) or b). |
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But it was after the QA that he was stepped up to 10f for first time...if they were so risk averse and in such an 'impossible position', they would never have gone into 'unknown territory' with him
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anyway, two more about to debut for your delectation:-
More Frankel juveniles set to hit the track By David Milnes 7:10PM 22 AUG 2016 FRANKEL has made a phenomenal start to his stud career with 15 winners already on the board and nine individual winners from just 13 of his offspring who have hit the racecourse. Our Newmarket correspondent David Milnes, who tracked the Sir Henry Cecil-trained superstar through his career on the Newmarket gallops, focuses on some of the second wave of baby Frankels who are about to hit the track. Swiss Storm (David Elsworth) This powerful colt could debut at the Newmarket July course, just as his sire did six years ago, as he is entered in a 7f maiden there on Friday. A half-brother to smart sprinters Swiss Spirit and Swiss Diva, Swiss Storm is still part-owned by his breeders Lordship Stud but it is noticeable Elsworth himself has also taken a share. In a rare move, Elsworth boxed the colt to the other side of Newmarket for an early morning exercise on the Al Bahathri last week which left connections purring. Rainbow Legacy (Sir Michael Stoute) Stoute is yet to run any of his Frankels, but this strapping colt is the most forward and not far off a run. Entered in next year's Investec Derby, he is the only Frankel on the books of the Ballymacoll Stud and is bred to stay well as his dam is a full-sister to former Stoute-trained top-notchers Golan and Tartan Bearer. Rainbow Legacy has been pleasing in his work on the all-weather surfaces of late and can be expected to debut sometime next month over seven furlongs or a mile. |
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Dunc if you are going to run 10f then the Juddmonte is the race to go for. The competition was below standard and the only danger was if St Nicholas Abbey rose to the occasion. He was a 12f+ horse who had never won at 10f. If the race was run the way See The Stars race was run it could be interesting but JOB sat back and as the commentator said 'gave him a patient ride'. What was that all about? A 12f + horse in a 10f race on a flat track on fast ground. He never put St Nic in the race and only gave him a couple of back-handers. Watch the race again and watch JOB sitting still and on the bridle.
My conspiracy theory is that AOB didn't want to test the son of Galileo. The stakes were too high. And lets not forget the other horses AOB ran against Frankel were Roderick O'Connor in the Guineas completely unfit finished nearly last but was obviously much better than that beating the 2000 Guineas 2nd in the Irish 2000 Guineas. Zoffany caused a stir in the St James Palace Stakes beaten narrowly but AOB never ran him against Frankel again. Why not? Excelebration joined AOB from Marco Botti and in his the Queen Anne Stakes he ran by far the worst race of his life. Camelot and So You Think just swerved him. I think if St Nicholas Abbey and Excelebration had run their proper races things would have been so much different. |
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Creppelo, I did compare like for like, what has him being first season got to do with it?
I understand all the arguments over whether he would stay or not but it doesn't really make a lot of difference. Unless he is a STS type, which he isn't, then I think he should be getting better 2yo colts. Maybe next year he will. |
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according to the late sir henry,frankel had the longest stride pattern he had ever seen.sussex stakes must have been the bet of the century,receiving weight off canford cliffs, 10/11.
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Statistically Frankel has had a brilliant start to his stud career.
He is 8 winners from 11 runners 73% (2yos- Galileo is 10 winners from 35 runners 29%, Dubawi 8 from 14 57%) His 2yos have only had 27 runs - even Nathaniel has had more. Going by prize money (and it's star horses we want yes?) he is second in first season sires having had only a fraction of the number of runners of the other top 10. |
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This idea that Frankel had a history of emptying very quickly is absolutely absurd. He stayed on strongly to beat Cirrus and Nathaniel at Ascot - two very strong stayers - in testing conditions. In the International he absolutely ran to the line also. The SJP was quite clearly due to a ridiculous piece of jockeyship that saw him launched for home 3f out after an equally ridiculous job his pacemaker had done. If Frankel stayed two miles he'd of been slowing down that day.
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It's almost as ridiculous as suggesting Coolmore weren't off against Frankel because he shone a light on Galileo. Absolute tosh I'm afraid.
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remember it's brigust
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TH that is your opinion and I have mine. There is nothing wrong with that. Because mine is different to yours does not necessarily make me wrong. A forum only works properly if we show respect for each others views even if we disagree with them.
Galileo's fee was 175,000 Euros before Frankel retired and now it is 350,000 Euros. How much would they have earned by making him look vulnerable? It's just a theory but you only have to look at the inept ride JOB gave St Nic among others and the questions should be asked. Coolmore are the kings of hype because breeding has always been more valuable to them than racing. That's my opinion. |
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what's the source for Galileo's fee - it's been private since well before Frankel hit a racecourse?
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brigust1
I respect your views and your arguments in the past regarding your champion but you are, in my opinion, mistaken here ... Robin Hood (O'Brien) set a red hot pace out front trying to find a chink in Frankel's armour - why do that if you don't want him beat - the pace was terrific and yet Frankel ambled past St Nic (who raced in 4th) - there was nothing JOB, or anyone else for that matter, could do. In my view your suggestion about the "Irish Lads" letting Frankel win does you no credit at all. |
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It's a conspiracy theory Crepello. Lighten up. And I'm not saying letting Frankel win for goodness sake because I think he would have won anyway but even the commentator on the day said JOB was taking it easy 3 furlongs out. Why would he, the commentator, do that? Even the commentator was expecting something different. It was so obviously against the way I thought he would have been ridden. Why would they do that?
If your jockey was riding a horse in a 10f Group 1 who had never won over 10f and needed every yard of 12f on a stiff track what instructions are you going to give your jockey considering you are also running a pacemaker to help him? Now look at JOB's ride and see if it matches the orders you would give. |
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And if, as is reported Galileo's stud fee has gone up by 175,000 euros and he covers up to 200 mares a season that is 35 million each season. To think that king of money is not discussed in a breeding business is naive in the extreme.
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*kind
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Now if you have watched that look at the same race won by See the Stars in 2009. The AOB horses set a strong pace for the likely non stayer Mastercraftsman who had never run over further than a mile before and where Murtagh led 3 out and hit Mastercraftsman at least 14 times. That is what a trier looks like. In my opinion of course.
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Brigust1 didnt JOB ride like that on the majority of his mounts
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Hooray someone with a sense of humour.
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brigust1 - there was a red hot pace set by Robin Hood (O"Brien) in the Juddmonte - to even think that St Nic had any chance of beating Frankel in that race is being deluded.
Look at the race again without your rose tinted BG glasses on - he was a real champion in his own right but to deride Frankel like this is plain silly. I was only taking your words as you wrote them so if you want to back out of your conspiracy theory then do so ..... |
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No it is a conspiracy theory. By it's title that is what it is. You can go along with the masses and think everything is clean and above board but conspiracy theories take another view. What would be the fun in everyone agreeing?
Do I think St Nic would have beaten Frankel? Definitely not but I do think JOB could have tried harder. All I said was that I thought he didn't ride anywhere near the perfect race. You may think he did ride the perfect race in which case we disagree but if you don't think he rode the perfect race then you are in my camp. Like it or not. I suggest had Frankel not run in this race and JOB had ridden exactly the same and made the same effort he would have been slaughtered on here. But Frankel was in the race so that's OK. |
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St Nic was a great talent and part of me believes he should have been held in a higher regard than he was. I also agree JOB should have tried harder, but i partly think that was his riding style. Even with his huge amount of winners he had in his short career there is a lot of poor rides (visually) that i think cost his horse victory.
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It's an interesting idea that you can write any old whatnot and say it can't be proved wrong because it's an opinion. Probably best we leave that for another day, although nothing I've written is opinion (btw, that's just an opinion so can't be proved wrong). Yours most definitely is an opinion, brig old boy. I'll leave others to suggest an adjective we could use for it.
Back to that International...as Crepello keeps saying O'Brien ran two hares who ran hard. The pace was so hot one of them couldn't even get to the front (as couldn't Frankel's pacer), and St Nic, as you suggested he should, hit the front over 2f out. Dems de facts. And just on Galileo; leaving aside the incorrect reporting of his fee, why did Coolmore chase round New Approach in his 3yo year? He was the top rated Galileo at that time, the sire had been getting plenty of stayers and Coolmore would have bitten your arm off for a 2000 Guineas winner. so do they clear the decks for a son of Galileo to have his coronation at Newmarket? No. Instead, they downed him with Henrythenavigator (a Kingmambo). And then repeated the trick at the Curragh. Oh and they threw 5 horses at him in the Derby too. It's simply not a game Coolmore play, brigust - unless they're protecting one of their own, of course, which Frankel very clearly wasn't. |
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TH we all have opinions. You may think one horse will win and I may think another. That's racing.
TH the pace was sooo hot in the Juddmonte that every runner was in line 2.5 furlongs out. And look I'm sorry if I gave you the wrong impression about Coolmore. They are whiter than white. No hype and everything is trying for it's life. I hope I have given you the idea that anything other than that is true. If you know the Galileo fee then tell me what it is otherwise how do you know the fee I gave is incorrect? |
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Would Coolmore have liked one of theirs to beat Frankel?
You had better believe it ....... what a horse they would have then ...... |
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We are talking about Frankel, brigust. Specifically, Coolmore gifting Frankel wins. My last sentence in no way suggested they're whiter than white - quite the opposite. So I'm afraid I don't have a clue what your reply is all about. Sadly, I rather suspect you don't either.
Think I'll leave you to it, Creps. |
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havent read the whole thread but if this hasnt been mentioned
P McCoy @AP_McCoy Aug 14 AP McCoy Retweeted TEDJANKEY I don't doubt it, but Galileo gets €500k ago 3 times a day for his troubles!! |
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I guess when Excelebration took on Frankel from the front in the Queen Anne that was to help Galileo's stud fee?
And Sea the Stars - clearly what Coolmore were actually trying to in all those races as help Galileo's half-brother look good. If only we'd known... Utter stupidity from brigust and not for the first time either. |
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You don't honestly believe Coolmore had a horse to beat Frankel do you? That's crazy. I don't believe that for one moment.
When did I say 'gifting' Frankel wins? How ridiculous is that? The problem with some of you guys is you believe all of the hype without question. Anyone who questions anything is either blind or stupid. That means you are totally unable to hold a sensible debate without swerving all over the road. Then you get comments like Excelebration taking on Frankel from the front in the QA. Bullet Train led until 3 out ffs. And for your information all of the ratings agencies believe Excelebration ran miles below his form. Why was that? Nothing obvious came to light. Do I think he would have beaten Frankel absolutely not. So don't get that stupid idea. But when you are bombarded with facts about the Juddmonte and how easily Frankel won all I am saying is that a contribution to that fact is that his main contender according to all of the press at time and with stamina to burn was given, at best, an inept ride. But why was that? Even the commentator picked it up. Perhaps he is blind and stupid too. All I pointed out was that Excelebration ran way below form in the Queen Anne. A point agreed by all of the agencies. I suggested that JOB didn't give St Nicholas Abbey the greatest of rides in the Juddmonte considering his stamina. I suggested Coolmore had a lot to gain through Galileo if Frankel were to remain unbeaten. And I suggested a conspiracy theorist would have something to say. And, by the way, I suggested Coolmore never had any horses to touch Frankel. So you may agree or disagree with any of those points but you should listen to yourselves guys it's like a lynch mob. Anyone who dares to question any of the hype around Frankel and they get both barrels. Thanks TheFear, every little helps. |
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you can't expect to post rubbish and expect not to be called out on it
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Tell me what was rubbish A-T. Then if it is rubbish I will withdraw it. But if it isn't rubbish will you say it isn't rubbish?
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This is the time for you to disappear A_T because you won't find anything I have said that is rubbish and as you won't be prepared to accept that you will just disappear.
Seriously though that's OK I understand so have a good one. |
