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Frankel
Frankel
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A_T, Frankel is 18th in the 2 to lists without a decent colt. What's all this prize money nonsense? You can argue all you want about his ability but trying to say his stats are good is wrong. You are comparing £125k cover to sometimes a £4k cover. Cunco is his best colt (on ratings) and he isn't very good.
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it's easier to post what makes any sense. when I find something i'll let you know.
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Now that's a different story and it scares the h e ll outa me. When I race read I can write this horse or that horse had a poor ride, or never ran to form the majority agree but if the race has Frankel in it. Wow.
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↑that was to brigust btw
truehoncho Frankel has had very few runners compared to other sires - yet he's already had 2 stakes winners. if you expected him to have speedy colts winning over 5f and 6f then you'll be disappointed - that's certainly not what breeders were expecting when they sent him their mares. if you persist in believing he's a disappointment at stud answer this do you think his fee will go down next year? |
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Wow this thread has really taken off.
I agree whole heartedly with A_T Do you really think Frankel's best offspring are going to be rushed out to win micky mouse maidens? their purchase price dictates that they are given as much time as they need with the view to the classics next year. I even make a comparison with Sea The Stars and Taghrooda on my blog. All these suggestions that Frankel would have won the Arc easily are ridiculous, regardless of the quality of the opposition if he hadn't of stayed he would have been beaten FACT. Would he have stayed nobody knows FACT ..... everything else is just conjecture. Also you can talk about covering fees as much as you like but they are just market forces, it has no correlation to the ability of progeny unfortunately |
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One thing you did not consider 18blue is the pressure these trainers are under. They interviewed Richard Fahey I think it was and he said the pressure to get these horses out to win first time up is immense. The expectations and publicity make training these horses completely different from any of the others.
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There was also the suggestion that many wont even reach the racecourse. Either because of temperament or because they are worth too much.
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Despite having a terrific book of mares and having made a bright start it is very,very unlikely, almost certainly unlikely, he will be as successful as the three stallions in the top line of his pedigree. Most getting a bit too carried away.
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brigust1 23 Aug 16 20:39
There was also the suggestion that many wont even reach the racecourse. Either because of temperament or because they are worth too much. Dear me - whatever next? |
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most horses are no good regardless of sire. the vast majority of Galileo's are absolutely useless
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No! Covering up to 200 mares a season and some are no good? You mean we won't get 200 new champions every year. That's not possible, surely?
My point was that if there are an increased number we won't see the pressure falls more heavily on the rest to deliver. Didn't really think I would have to explain that but there you go. |
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Brigust I don't want it to seem like your getting bashed but .....
"Richard Fahey I think it was and he said the pressure to get these horses out to win first time up is immense." does that quote not mean getting them to win first time out (purely because of reputation) rather than rushing to get them out as early as possible. That's the way I would take it anyway. |
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To the earlier comments:
I agree his fee won't go down next year, he is far too hyped for that. Do I think trainers are 'saving' their Frankels? Well there not saving their Galileo's, Shamardal's and Dubawi's. It's a fantasy to think trainers have great horses flying at home but their not racing them. 2yo's are running over a mile now, not 5f. |
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And one other thing, trainers are not under any pressure to do anything. The ones that train the well bred Frankels live in palaces and have more money than you can shake a stick at. They may not be Arabs but they certainly won't be going skint or rushing to the dole office if their Frankels don't win. They will just get their owners to buy some other stallion's yearlings and make a lot of money in the process.
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It's not that they are flying at home, some of them need or are given more time to mature.
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Do I think trainers are 'saving' their Frankels? Well there not saving their Galileo's, Shamardal's and Dubawi's. It's a fantasy to think trainers have great horses flying at home but their not racing them.
So you must think the currently unraced Galileos and Dubawis are all no good. Otherwise they'd be racing surely. It's simply not possible is it that their trainers don't think they're ready to race yet? Golden Horn didn't race until October. Zarkava, Workforce and Treve in September. Dancing Brave himself debuted in September. Ruler of the World didn't race at all at 3. Of course all the unraced Frankels are probably useless. |
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I have no idea 18blue. I guess he mean't giving them just an outing wasn't on the cards. If they can be readied to win first time up then they would.
With the number of races around then getting off to a flying start should be that much easier. After RH ran Queen Kindly twice in Class 5 races at Catterick. Would you think that would normally be the starting point for arguably his best 2 year old filly? I would have thought York or Haydock would have been more likely. I guess what he was saying was that because of the pressure to succeed he took no chances and run her at Catterick. |
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*RF not RH sorry.
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Two observations....
Analysis of the comparision of 2yo's performance of first season sires and established sires has always been problematic. I believe that history has shown that initial assumptions can be dangerous. Happy to debate that. I have not looked at all the data, but it seems that the performance of Frankel 2yo's is below the 2yo performance list of all sires (18th?) this season. This is not unusual for first season sires, but I do not have much historical data. Does anyone? True Honcho appears well informed. It appears that vs other first season sires his equivalent position is 7th?, but that his strike rate (winners to runners) is huge - 70%+) and that his win and total prize money is disproportionate to that 7th position and puts him second on the list. Again any statistically based thoughts? Good thread this. and hard not to get carried away with one's firm position on the subject  |
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truehoncho - "2yo's are running over a mile now, not 5f"
Have we had a 2yo Group race over a mile yet? Its only August |
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The Stonehenge is a Listed 2 y o race already run at Salisbury in August. You've the Fillies Mile and Racing Post Trophy both Group 1s in October, the May Hill for fillies and Royal Lodge for the boys in September at Group 2 level and the Autumn Stakes a Gr3 in October.
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The Stonehenge is a mile race.
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There all mile races. It's late.
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Thank you brigust - my point was not that there are not 1m races for 2yo's (ffs I have probably been around longer than you
) but that we are not really there yet as the group race programme for 2yo's demonstrates. Apologies I was brought up on the Observer Gold Cup. Sorry - but have we had a group race for 2yo's over a mile yet this season? |
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brigust posted the G1s for 2yos (he got that right! well done brigust!)
So are we saying that unless a Frankel wins one of them, we should regard him as a disappointment? |
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Incidentally Frankel has 24 in the Derby. 4 of them have run. 1 winner, 2 seconds, and the Coolmore colt which hasn't finished yet.
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A challenge should be made to this assertion by Brigust1 on Aug 22, regarding Brigadier Gerard...
'' on the other hand did stay. When he ran on heavy ground, although pressed, he was always going away not tiring or being caught at the end'' He was almost caught by Sparkler in the St James's Palace on heavy at Ascot, beaten a head, and by Rarity [beaten a neck] on heavy in the Champion Stakes... I remember both races, it was a shock at the time as he scraped home... As for Frankel at stud, from the few that we've seen, I see Frankel as so far merely assisting the mare, he's not stamped his mark - apart from some temperament issues - on any of them but they take more after the dam. Obvious example is Queen Kindly as Fahey himself admitted is right after the mare 'Lady of the Desert'... Do you think that's a fair comment? Eventually we should see one or two with an exceptional turn of foot, but he cannot be expected to reproduce himself, as I detect some commentators appear to be hoping for, expecting fireworks every time, and when the excitement dies down, a few will be gelded along the way. If you owned a Frankel, and you were advised it would improve its chances of success, would you have it gelded? as of now that's quite a question I think... |
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Hi A-T and Blackbarn, sorry I have to deal with young Smoky first.
You may have seen both races you refer to, Smoky, but you clearly had your eyes closed. The going at Royal Ascot that day was so appalling the stalls couldn't be used so they had a flag start. Lester got a flyer on Sparkler and made almost all of the running and would have made all if he wasn't caught in the last 100 yards by BG who was having his first run on virtually bottomless ground. Joe said he was cantering throughout and only when he picked him up to go after the leader did he flounder for a few strides when he did get him on an even keel his class and stamina came into play and he caught him and won going away. In the Champion Stakes the ground also turned heavy on the day with hours of continual driving rain. Multiple Gr1 winner Welsh Pageant made the running in what Lord Oaksey described eloquently as 'stormed away in front from the start setting a gallop designed to test his younger rival's stamina'. Rarity, a proven mudlark, went after BG when he stormed past Welsh Pageant coming out of the dip, Joe didn't want what happened in the St James Palace to happen again, but Rarity came at him with a wet sail in what what looked like a perfectly time challenge and looked like he momentarily led but again BG's stamina kicked in and he fought back to win. You may have seen it but I was there. So lets stop talking tosh, eh? Hi Blackbarn I doubt you are older than me. I was born in Airborne's year and the first Derby I went to, saw nothing by the way, was Relko's. A-T the answer is no, what Frankel does at stud means little to me. Like everyone else I guess we are just responding to the endless hype and, in many ways, how it is spun. |
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And the St James Palace was the last race on the card that day, to make matter worse, and wasn't on the BBC.
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1971 Champion Stakes
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=oa8_9ZJBWdk |
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In the stands it looked like Rarity momentarily led but maybe he didn't. Rarity had already won 3 times at 10f and mainly on soft going and having run in both the St Leger and the Irish St Leger so clearly stamina wasn't considered to be a problem. But as Timeform wrote after the race 'Almost unnoticed Rarity was making up ground fast on the outside. He came up the hill like a lion and drew level with Brigadier Gerard 30 or 40 yards from the line at which point he looked sure to win. Brigadier Gerard would not be denied and with both horses giving their utmost they fought out a pulsating finish. Rarity just could not force his head in front and went dwn by little more that the breadth of a nostril.
In my view BG clearly showed that, even on ground he hated, stamina was not in short supply and that is evident throughout his career. |
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The St James Palace was shown on the BBC. Not on the day, but on the following day. My memory was that BG was tracking Sparkler on the rail, seemingly going ok, but when pulled out to challenge, he seemed to flounder for a few strides and looked like he might fail to get to him - perhaps due to the ground being better on the rail. Then he seemed to gather himself, and gained on Sparkler - maybe it was Sparkler fading a bit - he had after all set a good pace throughout - maybe it was BG getting going once he had found his feet in the bad ground - viewing on TV, it was hard to say which it was - anyway, he made up the couple of lengths he needed to, and nailed him pretty much on the line.
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That sounds about right Ged. I saw it live and the weather was awful so never saw a lot. I never saw it on TV the next day because I was still racing. Why do they not keep these recordings? Channel4 dumped the Sussex Stakes recordings and there are only clips left. Of course if anyone has any recordings I would be interested to here from them. I have quite a few already. The ones I am missing are the Middle Park, St James Palace and the Sussex Stakes (I have the last furlong only).
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I liked what Timeform wrote about the ground at the time, just to give you an idea. 'His (Brigadier Gerard's) owner's attitude at the time, that mud is the same for them all, might be commendably adventurous, but running an unbeaten horse of Brigadier Gerard's value in a swamp seems to many the taking of a greater risk than prudence would allow.
There is soft ground and soft ground. At Royal Ascot the course was a quagmire and racing was only just possible; at Newmarket in the Autumn (Champion Stakes Day) the ground was nearly as bad.' |
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I was at Goodwood when he won the Sussex. (I presume you were too!). We were meant to be going on Stewards Cup day, but the car broke down at Wisborough Green, so we didn't make it that day, had to go back home, and come back the next day (or 2), and pick it up and carry on down. I remember him being about 5 clear over the far side, and wondering whether he'd gone off too fast, but the gap seemed to stay that way all the way up the straight. I was standing near the rail, and remember the sound of him coming by, then daylight, then the chasers.
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..once again...
''he was always going away not tiring or being caught at the end'' It seems it was your eyes that were...blinkered? as you have described both races, how you can contend that he was ''going away'' and not being ''caught at the end'' is surprising.. he scrambled home both times, as you well know... the rest is just excuses I'm afraid... |
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Once again Smoky. Horse sits in behind leader. Horse passes leader and horse is furthest ahead of the leader at the line. No-one is saying the horse is hanging on. No-one is saying the horse is getting caught. No-one is saying the 2nd is an unlucky loser. No-one is saying if the race had been further the 2nd would have won.
Horse leads, horse challenges leader and possibly goes just ahead, horse battles back and is ahead at the line. No-one is saying the 2nd is an unlucky loser, no-one is saying had the race been further the 2nd would have won. The facts are that had the races been further there is a much greater chance that the winner would have won further. That might just be my opinion but I would be surprised if it wasn't the vast majority of viewers opinion. |
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A_T, 18 blue and Bigrust who Wholeheartedly agree with these comments you made:
'Golden Horn didn't race until October. Zarkava, Workforce and Treve in September. Dancing Brave himself debuted in September. Ruler of the World didn't race at all at 3' The sires of GH,Treve and Zarkava were failures. DB was by a good stallion but F would not be considered a success if he didn't do better. Workforce is by a good stallion but he gets good 2yo's such as Zoffany. Your own argument defeats you. Still Frankel may be ok. |
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Are we allowed to describe any sire that's given us Ouija Board, Golden Horn and Sea The Stars as a failure? Seems a bit harsh to me.
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Too right, Cape Cross far from a spoon in the mouth sire, began his stud career with an £8,000 fee. A true success.
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