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For anyone doubting the quality of Frankel's progeny http://bit.ly/2buVZ4n
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"the same people who said Frankel wouldn’t stay a mile are now starting to say he hasn’t produced anything special at stud"
Frankel won over a mile on his 2yo debut! Who's saying he hasn't produced anything special? Everyone is raving about him. Richard Fahey at York was saying he was scared to run his Frankels because they had such a high reputation that he didn't want to be the one to lower it. If you want to talk out of your arse, at keast do it on here, rather than keep on trying to trumpet your blog to the universe. |
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Yes ged he posted an opinion on the lucky 15 thread which I have no issue with, but, he was blatantly trying to 'sell' his blog.
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Exactly. This is a forum. It's what it's for, posting opinions on racing. Just do it here.
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beyond a mile Ged!!! had question marks over him getting the mile at Newmarket after his Royal Lodge win. If you remember he took off three furlongs out. Who is questioning Frankel well a few people have on twitter, the media always rave on. So how is that talking through my arse ? as for selling, I a not selling nothing merely putting opinions out there which is more than most are willing to do :) but thanks for the views
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the difference between posting on a blog and posting on here is what exactly? Ged you always feel the need to comment so you must read the links. If it was that bad you wouldn't read it :)
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A bit of a comparison with a couple of the 1970's champions.
Frankel produces over 100 foals per year and will have produced over 400 foals by this time next year. Mill Reef produced 394 foals in his whole 14 year stud career and produced 63 black type winners, 38 Group winners, 18 Group 1 winners and 2 Derby winners in Reference Point and Shirley Heights. Nijinsky only produced 25 foals in his first year yet he went on to produce over 150 black type winners including 3 Derby winners (Golden Fleece, Shahrastani and Lamtarra) and an Arc winner in Lamtarra. He also produced a Kentucky Derby winner and US Horse of the Year winner in Ferdinand. And this at a time where Group races were far, far fewer. Just a simple comparison. |
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brilliant post brigust, it is not a exact science. Annoyed me the way people were so negative after the defeat of Fair Eva. Interesting to see what he produces over the next five seasons. Has a lot to live up to with his record on the track and being by the great Galileo.
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Much of the negativity about Fair Eva's defeat on Thursday was only created by her 3rd-place on the back of her Ascot romp representing the highest-profile dip so far in Frankel's remarkable debut-season crop.
What's more, while normally I'm fiercely against the rush to upgrade Pattern races because of diluting each particular group, Fair Eva's race on Thursday is my one exception deserving a Group-1 boost because the Lowther consistently draws a championship-standard lineup despite its Group-2 status (its track-record 2014 contest between Tiggy Wiggy, Cursory Glance and Anthem Alexander is comfortably the best 2-year-old fillies' race I've ever witnessed). The Frankel hype meant Fair Eva went off at 4/11 at York on Thursday when the basic form-stats of her previous form probably merited nearer 8/13 or 4/7 (so, yes, I did lay her on here for a few quid purely because I thought she was much too short) ... on the day, effectively in a Group-1, she finished a disappointing 3rd rather than anything more abysmal. Kneejerk doesn't even start to describe some of the daft responses to her performance. |
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I read the blog and it is pretty fair. However, I doubt if he will ever be champion sire, I would have expected a few decent colts by now. New approach was better than him at this stage. Still there's no doubt he is a good sire. I would say he will be about as good as Shamardal and that's a big compliment.
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Frankel has every prospect of becoming a super sire. No one expected his 2YOs to shine this season, but they have proved a revelation. Of course not every top-class racehorse makes a great sire. I remember the stunning Brigadier Gerard was useless at stud, whilst Royal Palace and Sea Bird were decidedly underwhelming too. Every year or two a top racehorse bombs at stud, only for another to emerge who gets better runners than himself. Sea The Stars got Harzand this year to cement his reputation, and I expect Frankel to follow suit.
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"Frankel won over a mile on his 2yo debut!"
Remember that race, a 1m maiden at Newmarket, had a strong tip that Nathaniel was strongly fancied to make a winning debut.... and he runs into Frankel first time out and was beaten half-a-length ! |
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not every super horse makes a good stallion but most of teh super stallions were very good horses..........northern dancer, saddlers wells, galileo, montjeu, shamardal, dubawi, danehill (less so)
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Now there's an idea for a Top 10 - The Top 10 stallions who never won a Group 1 when racing
Off the top of me heed 1. Dansili 2. |
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danetime?
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acclamation i dont think won a group 1 also a sire of sires
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Just for the record zygote Brigadier Gerard's owners, the Hislops, made a ridiculous stipulation banning commercial breeders from using Brigadier Gerard. With Nijinsky and Mill Reef also newly retired it was the kiss of death.
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George B, had the sprint at Haydock not been upgraded in 1988, the year before Danehill won it, there'd be a nice non-G1 sire line going:
Danzig - Danehill - Dansili Admittedly Danzig looked like he wouldve been a superstar had injuries not intervened. Sadler's Wells brother Fairy King is another top sire who springs to mind. |
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Be My Guest, champion sire in 1982 never won a G1 - and none of the races he won have been upgraded to G1. Won the Blue Riband Trial when the race was treated with a bit more respect than it is now, and also the Goodwood Mile. Never stayed when one of three M V O'Brien horses in the 1977 Derby, the other two being The Minstrel and Valinsky.
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Some great responses to the original post, despite the original negativity.
We still have some big races before the end of the season, we may yet see a superstar colt. I agree it was by no means a terrible performance from Fair Eva and if she was a bit "flat" how good will she be when on song. We all have an opinion but I don't think we can truly judge Frankel's stud career for at least another three years |
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I definitely don't see a superstar colt this year and if it takes 3 years to prove him he won't be a champion. Zygot, you are wrong. He was expected to produce this year, he is no Sea The Stars. He is predominately a source of speed (up to a mile) and if you don't get good 2yo's you won't be winning the early season classics.
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I think anything that the progeny of a stallion does in his first crop season is a bonus and most of the significant Gr1 races are for older horses anyway, so we will have to wait and see but there is plenty to suggest that Frankel will be very successful at stud.
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truehoncho, I disagree that Frankel is "a source of speed". As a miler who got 10 furlongs, his progeny can be expected to excel over those distances. He is a far cry from those stallions that predominately get sprinters.
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Worrying how Frankel progeny's advantage seems to be dissipating as the 2-y-o season unfolds.
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I don't he is a sprinter stallion Zygote, but I doubt he will be getting Derby types from what I've seen. IMO he should have 1 or 2 colts high up in the betting for the end of season colts G1 and G2 races and a prospect for next seasons Guineas. He doesn't and has had better books than everyone (except maybe Galileo). He doesn't have any 2yo's (colts) as good as Shamardal and many other stallions. He may yet turn the corner but I think he should be doing better.
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Majority of his best prospects for next season wont have seen a racecourse yet, the half brother to So Mi Dar, half sister to Midday etc
I wont be surprised if he gets a champion from one of the middle distance mares. Frankel didnt peak until his 4yo season so you would expect good progression from his middle distance runners. He has an incredible start so far, safe to say he is not going to be a failure at stud but dont expect another Frankel, he will sire plenty of classic winners and his daughters will produce plenty but he was a one off. |
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As a son of Galileo he's mainly going to produce middle distance classic types IMO. There must be a hundred or more 2yos that have yet to see a racecourse. Maybe they will all be useless but somehow I din't think Frankel's fee will drop for next year.
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Agree it is unlikely we will see one of Frankels offspring be as good as him. It's thought part of the reason he was so good he has a much larger heart than average. That trait doesn't usually get passed on to the offspring, but can appear in horses he is a grandsire to, or dam sire. It is one of those genetic traits that can skip a generation or several generations.
I hope he is a successful sire and a lot of his crop go on to produce throughbreeds. Hopefully we will see another Frankel or 2 in the next 10 or 20 years maybe a few more even later if his bloodline continues |
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I personally do think he is a source of speed, his guineas performance told us that. He stayed further when he settled better and I think sheer class got him through the longer tests. He is currently 6/6 with progeny over 5f and 6f.
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Frankel got 10f easily and may even have got 12f if tried as a 4 year old.
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Wouldve won the ARC in my opinion...EASILY...
Best ever! |
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Hi Andrew. How are you?
Personally I think Frankel 'may' have stayed 12f but only because of what was around but I also think Henry wasn't convinced and I trust his judgement. He was the master at 12f and having not won the Arc the pull to try, had he been convinced, would have been there. He may have thought he would stay but not strongly enough to risk it. I believe to suggest he would have easily won the Arc is to insult his ability as a trainer. There are two ways of looking at it. Either you think he deliberately tried not to show how good the horse was, which would be the case if he was confident he would stay 12f, or he ran the horse on his merits. I think second is the most likely. The speed of his 2 year olds could be from his dam Kind who was clearly a sprinter and could have been the main reason he never tried 12f. |
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you only needed to watch frankel to see he was a flying machine,and was easily far better at mile than mile and quarter,if they would have held him up to get mile and half, he would have burnt out,cecil new I would say hes more likely to have sprinter types, or if ANY CLASSIC will be miler.
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united biscuits as clueless on this forum as he is stupid on chit chat.
Could you name the offspring that are 'dissipating', for the term you use ? |
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There are 18 stallions above him in the 2yo sire lists. Every one of them except 1 (Holy Roman Emperor) has a better colt than Frankel (RPRs) and plenty below him have better colts than him too. Plenty of them under £10k and a few under £5k. That's not a good stat no matter how much you want him to succeed.
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Compare like with like - how does he stand with other first season sires?
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Frankel wasn't sent mares from breeders looking for speedy early 2yos. Frankel himself didn't make his debut until mid-August. Who here thinks his fee will drop next year?
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In my view Frankel would have stayed 12f all day long as a 3YO or 4YO and I doubt it was so much a case of Henry Cecil doubting that he would and more a combination of how he won the 2000gns (even though that was the first time up until then that he had made all) and more that they already thought the had their Derby horse, until it flopped in the Dante and by then it was probably too late to change tact with Frankel.
No trainer is likely to try 12f for the first time with a horse in the Arc and especially if travelling overseas and that would be like a 2000gns winner missing the Derby for whatever reason and then when fit for the Irish Derby, putting it away until the Arc instead of trying to see if it got 12f against its own age group in Ireland. I very much doubt Frankel would have had much to fear from the likes of Pour Moi, Treasure Beach, Carlton House, Memphis Tennessee and Native Khan at Epsom and the fact there was only 1L between the first 3 home suggests either they were all superstars or all not very good and I know which I think it was. In Frankel's classic season Nathaniel won the KG with St Nicholas Abbey in 3rd and I don't think he had much to fear from ether of those (as subsequent runs went on the prove) and Workforce was 2nd in that KG and there's not much point either keeping a Derby in training as a 4YO and not running it, nor risking Frankel losing his unbeaten record to one of your own horses by running them against each other. Workforce had also won the Arc as a 3YO and was due to defend it, so again no point in running both horses in that either. The KG the next season was won by Danedream by a nose from Nathaniel with St Nicolas Abbey in 3rd and so make of that what you will had Frankel been in the field too, but you would think if they were going to try 12f for the first time as a 4YO then this would more likely be the time rather than the Arc. I personally think Frankel will have winners right up to Gr1 level from 5f to 12f and maybe even farther and think he was such a freak that he himself could have won at any of those trips too, albeit that he would probably have to be ridden differently in some of them. |
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Ima your reasoning is fundamentally flawed because there is a clear route to the Arc which includes the Eclipse Stakes, the King George and then the Arc. A route variously taken by Mill Reef, Dancing Brave,Dylan Thomas, Workforce, Golden Horn and See The Stars. To suggest Henry's plans for Frankel as a 4 year old were scuppered by the defeat of a horse in the Dante when Frankel was a 3 year old is plain silly.
Henry never set out his stall to run over 12f at any time that is abundantly clear and then only reasons are a) he didn't want to risk Frankel getting beaten or b) he didn't think he would stay. If it as a) then the only risk of Frankel getting beaten was because he didn't stay. And b) is the same. Take your pick Ima because neither has reference to what you think or anyone else thinks he would have done they are the facts, like it or not. I have already said I think the speed in his 2 year olds may be from his dam Kind and the future stamina of his offspring may be dependent on the stamina of their dams. |
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Frankel's brothers won stakes races over 12f. Rainbow Lake won the Lancashire Oaks. Frankel is going to get a lot of middle distance types
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