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These 1562 comments are related to the topic:
The 2016 Mark Johnston Turf Thread
The 2016 Mark Johnston Turf Thread
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Replies: 1,562
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Just going to have a bit of sun in the garden before it kicks off today.
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stridingedge
A minor point but could you correct a display error,[color=blac****law[/color], that appears a couple of times in your table, please? If you replace the word black with #000000 then the horse's name, Huntlaw, should display correctly. Thanks. |
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Thanks for that top2rated was wondering how to fix that, I can't believe it was making a swear word from k + hunt , will try this for next update
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Sea of snow has my money..
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Not even close. What do you think of Oriental Fox Later Striding? Reappears after only 10 days. The extra 2Furlongs here should help as the trip last time looked a bit too short. Not sure what the end of year target is for this horse, but I'd hope it was the Cesarewitch again. It would make more sense to run and let it tail off to further lower the mark, but this time the horse was placing in its racing and went to the Cesarwitch top of the weights.
I feel it can win here as it's more than good enough of the mark. The 3 yearold carrying feathers is a big danger though. Worst case scenario it's just beaten by the 3 yearold and the mark doesnt change. Would in that case prefer to see it lose by a dozen lengths instead. Can't let it go unbacked here. (Franny to get his winner for the day) I think it's becoming my cliff horse.. |
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I still thought it was a bit high even for a class 2 dibdob, at the age where you could keep following it down.
Just wasn't one that stuck out as well treated at the price though wouldn't be a big surprise if winning. (fence sitting i know) I've followed a few too many already hoping the return to form so left it. |
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Hope you recoup a bit on it if you play today.
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I'm on of
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* when i said followed too many hoping they return to form, i mean selecting long standing losers hoping they return to form not those who haven't won for a few races.
THe trouble is I've followed some of the lower class ones that were never that great anyway, at least we know Oriental Fox was a good horse. gl xmoney too |
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Cheers striding. The last run had enough promise to convince me to give it another go. The money often talks for this horse. It's trickling in a little, but not as much as i would have liked. GL Money
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weird camera angle
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Thought you guys were in there when the fav ran across the track
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Got my lay taken so no harm down, but exactly what I didn't want to happen happened. Giving a horse 24lb is just asking for too much.
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The horse has ran twice in the cesearwitch, both times running really well. It should have even won last year, but for Fanning not riding to the line. Leading up to the ceserwitch though they were winning and placing which meant having to carry top weight (once because of a 4lb penalty). Knowing the horse runs well at the track and at the time of year you would think they would do everything they could to lower its mark as much as possible. Instead here they are again going all out trying hard to win a lowly class 2 giving lumps to a good 3 yearold. Boggles the mind
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Celestation (4:40 Lingfield) obvious claims after the promising last run at huge odds in a valuable york race. Not my sort of punt at the price though.
Bonnie Arlene (6:20 Carlisle) MJ dangerous in these class 5 nurseries july through september and has struck here 3 from 6 in the class in these races at Carlisle.The record is considerably better for those that have managed to win a race but horse has only raced at the distance once and it's only the 2nd run in a hcp with quite a bit of racing experience now.This race is also a bit of a step down from a 68 avg race into a 57 today but of course some of these are very unexposed, MJ's runner has also had a break which has not been a plus but is from a very small sample.I certainly wouldn't be brave enough to lay it but as stated recently I've not really nailed enough of these profile types to be confident so have decided to pass.This is not one I've left easily today. Dasheen (7:20 Carlisle) really struggling to see why this suddenly pops up over these conditions today. When it's led it's been driven a fair way out in plenty of it's runs which suggests to me it's either just not very good or needs further, whatever the tactics everything about this one has looked one paced at the trips it's been facing at the business end of it's races. For me the hope for this one rests on the dams sire Theatrical having more of an influence than Bahamian bounty with regards it's stamina, if the former has left it's influence this horse could stay much further than this, time will tell. Again no plays today but Bonnie Arlene is the one i'd be most worried about leaving at the prices. |
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You might be right to swerve Bonnie Arelne. Excelebration has pretty poor sire stats 3 winners from 43. Given those stats I wouldn't want to be on Celestation and Bonnie Arlene. If they both lose/don't place then it might convince me to give Dasheen a play..
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layed 2.15 celestation
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BA ran a good race. A tickle ew on Dasheen maybe. The bit of cut in the ground will hopefully help..
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Fasheen ran well for 2nd
definitely benefit from going further, that's got to be the biggest stamina test its had with that pace in the race. |
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*Dasheen even
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50% return last 14 days,(lays) all.
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Beaver to break the 3yo's dam
& a shaky for DB |
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2nd run at trip a plus, long losing run in a race like this is not.
never won with a 3yo when one of his older horses has been top weight, in class 2's none of them have even managed a place from 11 goes. Didn't think Beavers price was worth a go today hatters but gl to you  |
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*not so concerned this small sample stat can't be broken, 11 runners is nothing though a bit surprising none of them placed in this scenario.
When having 2 runners in this class hcp and one has been a top rated 5yo, the top rated 5yo has won 5-13 for the yard. The main problem I have with Beaverbrook is the really poor return with the class 2-4's this season for the 3yo handicappers, it's a long standing loser and is in with a stablemate with a much better profile for the race. I get the class angle and it's not had many tries in hcps but a lot of these 3yo's in this class have failed to come good this season and I don't have the normal confidence for them at present. |
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hatters
Scrap the price element I hadn't looked at this since earlier this morning, didn't realize the price it had gone out too  |
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to
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Cheers for that Stride
Interesting top rated - price too short tho. GL if they get it The tide has to turn is the angle  Late season surge fings xd |
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I'm tempted at 16.0 now
, agree the top rated fav is no price. |
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Is this one of DB's qualifiers I've got lost with what he's doing now, can't remember if it's 105 or 115 the cut off but then some of these don't qualify?
DB if you are backing Beaverbrook please tell us before the race ta |
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Franny takes the ride on Beaverbrook, which is interesting as he seems to have overtaken Joe in the pecking order at the yard. Will carry a bit of my money and hopefully the drying ground will work in his favour too
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no bet.
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6 horse yard.the rest donkeys.gl
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Think we'll see an improved performance from Beaverbrook today GL those that are on
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Little disappointing that. MJ could have 1 and 2 there, but Sea The Stars didn't look to be going quick enough. Also Norton on beaverbrook got a little trapped late on. Good run still from both, BB will hopefully go in soon.
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the story of the season in the decent class hcps
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It's not been a great year other then the 2 yearolds. You would typically expect an MJ horse to have fought back and got its head back in front once headed like SOTS was, but we have seen very little of that this year.
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entries for september ,horrendous.
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Has a few decent ones running to Turkey this week
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Profile wise (given a normal season for 3yo's) tomorrow's 3yo hcp runners are all interesting.
Musselburgh in September with these runners has been a strong combo especially with Joe up.Have a couple of unexposed lower class ones (Baileys Galaxy & Zamindo), Hawatif not such a strong profile despite dro pin grade and the Ascot runner Renfrew Street has a very strong profile too there with Franny taking the ride (joe has usually been the go to jock there on 3yo handicappers). Think there should be some action current prices (books)... 3:45 Ascot Renfrew Street 5/1 5:50 Muss Baileys Galaxy 6/1 6:20 MUss Zamindo 8/1 Will post Ascot in the morning and am probably out for the afternoon, will be back for Musselburgh and see what the prices are on the pair then. |
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3:45 Ascot Renfrew Street, current price 5.5
This one appears to have had an issue, a winner for the thread earlier in the season and then narrowly failed on the follow up at Beverley before running poorly back in trip at Ayr. The subsequent return from absence at Musselburgh was a fair effort in the same class when not beaten up and I'm hoping with that under the belt she can put her best foot forward here today and return to the winners enclosure. The horse had a bit of higher class experience last year and although 12f is not totally certain to be optimum I'd rarely doubt the trainer when running the 3yo's in this sort of class at this trip.The track has been very good to the yard in these class 3's for the age (8-21) there haven't been too many sent there without a decent chance, Joe has been on most of the winners but he has an interesting few rides at Musselburgh so hoping Franny can get the job done. |